2021-2022 S Blues Multi-Purpose Thread Part 3

[STL fan in MN]

Great point.

It's not like we need to mimic what Perron did for the PP out of his corner. Would be nice if we could, but DP's playmaking ability, more than his one-timer, will be what is most missed on the PP.

That said, wasn't Ott the PP guy and not Monty?

Correct. Monty handled the forwards during the game and was in charge of the PK.

 

[Brian39]

Faulk, to me, is that right handed shot on that unit
it is wicked as f*** and accurate as well

That's a great thought. The NHL has swung so far toward 4 forwards and 1 D for the PP that I hadn't even considered using him as a trigger man on a unit with either Krug/Leddy/Perunovich as the QB up top. He does have a bomb, but I doubt he has much practice ripping one timers from that low on the left side.

Reading your post is the first time my brain has considered him in that spot, but I immediately really, really want to see that look in camp.

 

[Reality Czech]

That's a great thought. The NHL has swung so far toward 4 forwards and 1 D for the PP that I hadn't even considered using him as a trigger man on a unit with either Krug/Leddy/Perunovich as the QB up top. He does have a bomb, but I doubt he has much practice ripping one timers from that low on the left side.

Reading your post is the first time my brain has considered him in that spot, but I immediately really, really want to see that look in camp.

I'd be willing to try it, though I'm not sure I can see them using 2 d-men on the first unit. But in regards to a rh shooter, the only options are Faulk, Thomas, Parayko and Kyrou. Kyrou doesn't seem like a one-timer guy but I can see Thomas in that spot sometimes. Of course he's more of a passer but his shot is pretty lethal as well. Hope he utilizes it more next year so teams can't focus solely on the pass.

I also think Saad will do well on the PP next season. Wasn't he leading the team in ppg for awhile last season?

 

[BadgersandBlues]

I think we might want to reimagine our top PP unit anyway - Perron was our primary trigger man, but we could put Thomas there and have him act as the primary facilitator instead of Krug - with a left handed D at the point and another left hander across (Schenn? Tarasenko?), plus ROR in the bumper slot - he'd have three options for one-timer passes with all left handed players. Then perhaps our secondary unit could feature either Kyrou or Faulk in that triggerman spot with Peru as the facilitator.

I like it when the two units give slightly different looks, I think it makes it a lot harder to defend.

 

[Brian39]

I'd be willing to try it, though I'm not sure I can see them using 2 d-men on the first unit. But in regards to a rh shooter, the only options are Faulk, Thomas, Parayko and Kyrou. Kyrou doesn't seem like a one-timer guy but I can see Thomas in that spot sometimes. Of course he's more of a passer but his shot is pretty lethal as well. Hope he utilizes it more next year so teams can't focus solely on the pass.

I also think Saad will do well on the PP next season. Wasn't he leading the team in ppg for awhile last season?

My assumption has also been to put one of Thomas/Kyrou in that corner to replicate Perron's playmaking from that spot. That's probably still the most likely outcome. But now that the thought has been implanted in my brain, I'd like to see how Faulk looks in that type of role (even if it just becomes a 'file away in case of injuries' piece of info).

Realistically, I think that the PP setup will look much different than simply trying to plug and play one guy in Perron's spot. Thomas and Kyrou were both on the 2nd unit for the large majority of last season and both of them are frankly too skilled to be kept off the top unit. The 2nd unit was built around the two of them and that unit was incredible for long stretches last year.

Ott has built up enough of a resume that I trust his vision of the PP. I'm not going to lose any sleep over the composition of the units unless the PP struggles for an extended period. But if it were me, I'd be building the top unit around Krug/Thomas/Kyrou. Those 3 have more than enough playmaking ability to create loads of high danger chances and the rest of the puzzle would be in selecting the 2 other guys to best compliment them. Leddy or Perunovich should be the QB of the 2nd unit, so that leaves you to select 6 of ROR, Tarasenko, Buch, Schenn, Barbie, Saad, and Faulk to fill out the last 2 spots on the top unit and 4 spots on the 2nd unit.

There is no excuse to not have a top 10 PP with that much offensive talent and I'd argue that they should be top 5. Krug is a top end PP QB league-wide. Perunovich has already demonstrated that he is currently capable of being the QB of a competent NHL PP and has the potential to be a top end PP QB whenever he gets an extended chance to do it. Leddy and Faulk are both capable of being an adequate-to-good PP QB. Each unit should have a good enough QB even with an injury or two and we have the potential to have one of the best 1-2 PP QB punches in the league.

We still have an enormous amount of forward talent around them with a good mix of skill sets. Kyrou, Thomas, Tarasenko, Buch, and ROR all have fantastic vision/playmaking. Schenn and Tarasenko are both capable of beating a squared up NHL goalie clean on unscreened shots. ROR, Buch, Barbie, and Saad are all very good at getting to and burying pucks in the dirty areas. We absolutely have 8 good-to-great PP forwards before you get into 'what ifs' like Faulk, Neighbours, Bolduc, or Leivo getting on a unit (or using all 3 of Krug/Leddy/Perunovich between the 2 units).

We have to adjust to the loss of Perron, but the PP should still be lethal this season.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

 

[joe galiba]

the biggest question going into next year - who is going to sit in the box for “too many men” penalties?

 

[Linkens Mastery]

the biggest question going into next year - who is going to sit in the box for “too many men” penalties?

Kyrou. One of only 2 or 3 players who doesn't play the PK.

 

[jmwc95]

According to JR our Tkachuk package was "Tarasenko, Scandella, and a high draft pick." That's not really a serious package.

It’s not. We weren’t serious about acquiring Tkachuk. We kicked the tires and went, nah.

Apparently that was a misquote from the radio and he didn't say that was an official offer.


I was fine with the Kyrou, Krug, + rumor that was going around. I'm just more commenting that there's nothing in that offer that would entice Calgary to take it. Even if Tarasenko, Scandella, and a 1st was the only offer, you might as well hang on to him and see what you can get at the trade deadline.

Those rumors were pushed by Calgary and got us buzzing about Tkachuk in St. Louis to try and up the price for Florida.

 

[bleedblue1223]

It’s not. We weren’t serious about acquiring Tkachuk. We kicked the tires and went, nah.

Both can be true. Look at some of the offers that Army through out to get Buchnevich, Faulk, Bouwmeester, O'Reilly, Schenn, or anyone else that I can't recall. A lot of those deals were made with offers that we'd might say were us not being serious about acquiring the player we acquired.

 

[jmwc95]

For whoever was giving me shit earlier about saying Parayko wasn’t even a good shut down defenseman anymore, Parayko apparently made The Athletic’s top ten list of worst contracts in the NHL. So it appears I’m not the only one who feels this way. I’m hoping he rebounds, but he hasn’t been the same since he got injured after the Stanley Cup winning season.

 

[STL fan in MN]

For whoever was giving me shit earlier about saying Parayko wasn’t even a good shut down defenseman anymore, Parayko apparently made The Athletic’s top ten list of worst contracts in the NHL. So it appears I’m not the only one who feels this way. I’m hoping he rebounds, but he hasn’t been the same since he got injured after the Stanley Cup winning season.

Yeah, Parayko with the 6th worst contract in the league according to Dom.

I have my doubts it’s actually the 6th worst out of over 700 contacts across the league but I’ll agree it’s bad. The 8-year contract is just starting this season. I would assume it was based on the assumption that he’d continue to progress a bit. Instead, he took a bit of a step back. He’s really going to need to rebound to justify the contract. Hopefully being paired with Leddy can help him. Theoretically, it should be a good pairing as they should complement each other well.

But his contract is why I’ve been suggesting moving him, Schenn and/or Krug. All 3 of those are shaping up to age poorly but Parayko’s is the biggest risk IMO.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Yeah, Parayko with the 6th worst contract in the league according to Dom.

I have my doubts it’s actually the 6th worst out of over 700 contacts across the league but I’ll agree it’s bad. The 8-year contract is just starting this season. I would assume it was based on the assumption that he’d continue to progress a bit. Instead, he took a bit of a step back. He’s really going to need to rebound to justify the contract. Hopefully being paired with Leddy can help him. Theoretically, it should be a good pairing as they should complement each other well.

But his contract is why I’ve been suggesting moving him, Schenn and/or Krug. All 3 of those are shaping up to age poorly but Parayko’s is the biggest risk IMO.

I have little confidence in Dom's model's ability to evaluate defensemen.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I'm really hoping that since Perron is no longer here Kyrou can keep up with his P/60 around 3.5-4 while going up to 17.5-18.5 Minutes of ATOI.

If he's able to keep his production like that it would put him at around 85-95 points if he's able to play a full season with the increased ice time.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I have little confidence in Dom's model's ability to evaluate defensemen.

Me too. Which is why I said I doubt Parayko’s contract is actually THAT bad. This is somewhat of a tangent but I generally take Dom’s stuff with a grain of salt. I’m a believer in analytics being a part of the process but my sense on Dom is that he’s purely all analysis and if his math doesn’t match the eye test his default seems to be more “my model shows the truth and I’m a genius” and less “hmm…maybe my model isn’t accounting for certain aspects of the value players being and I should look into tweaking it.”

Back to Parayko though, it doesn’t take a genius or tons of fancy math to see that an 8-year $6.5M AAV contract for a borderline #2/3 d-man could very well be problematic. It’s not currently an albatross but it certainly has the makings of a future one.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Last year was always going to be a "I hope Parayko's back can hold up" year. At the beginning of the season to about 1/2 way he didn't look exactly amazing. But during the 2nd 1/2 he started to play like the Colt from before. Hopefully this offseason can help him get fully into the swing of things and he can become more consistent again.

 

[BlueMed]

I have little confidence in Dom's model's ability to evaluate defensemen.

Dom has zero ounches of credibility in my book. He is guy that spends more time working on his "models" than actually observing what he is trying to model. I don't think he understands that models are not meant to replicate reality itself rather than to help you understand a component of reality.

Me too. Which is why I said I doubt Parayko’s contract is actually THAT bad. This is somewhat of a tangent but I generally take Dom’s stuff with a grain of salt. I’m a believer in analytics being a part of the process but my sense on Dom is that he’s purely all analysis and if his math doesn’t match the eye test his default seems to be more “my model shows the truth and I’m a genius” and less “hmm…maybe my model isn’t accounting for certain aspects of the value players being and I should look into tweaking it.”

Back to Parayko though, it doesn’t take a genius or tons of fancy math to see that an 8-year $6.5M AAV contract for a borderline #2/3 d-man could very well be problematic. It’s not currently an albatross but it certainly has the makings of a future one.

I certainly wouldn't call Paryako a borderline #2/3 D man. He's more of a #1/2 like Brent Seabrook was. Let's not lose sight of what we have here.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Dom has zero ounches of credibility in my book. He is guy that spends more time working on his "models" than actually observing what he is trying to model. I don't think he understands that models are not meant to replicate reality itself rather than to help you understand a component of reality.

His model is just to help him with his game betting. Which is why he hates the Blues so much. "My Models say the Blues should suck, but, I keep losing when I bet against them, ugh"

 

[bleedblue1223]

Last year was always going to be a "I hope Parayko's back can hold up" year. At the beginning of the season to about 1/2 way he didn't look exactly amazing. But during the 2nd 1/2 he started to play like the Colt from before. Hopefully this offseason can help him get fully into the swing of things and he can become more consistent again.

Yeah, I could pull the stats again, I posted them during the stretch of play you are describing and he was every bit the elite defensive defenseman he always was, and that was with Mikkola. This is the problem with models and evaluations like that, it underestimates the impact of partners like Mikkola and Scandella can have on your play.

I'm expecting a full-season with Leddy, and all those people will claim that Parayko returned to his top play and just ignore that he's always been that way since recovering from the back injury, he's just needed a partner that is good in transition like Bouwmeester was.

 

[bleedblue1223]

In the final 38 games of his season, he had 17 points and was a +36. And if you want to look at naturalhattrick.com for some of the deeper advanced stats, he's every bit in line with a guy like Pelech who is probably a good barometer for elite defensive play.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I'm really hoping that since Perron is no longer here Kyrou can keep up with his P/60 around 3.5-4 while going up to 17.5-18.5 Minutes of ATOI.

If he's able to keep his production like that it would put him at around 85-95 points if he's able to play a full season with the increased ice time.

Hopefully we can get his extension signed before season starts, bc if he puts up 95 points gonna be $$$$.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Hopefully we can get his extension signed before season starts, bc if he puts up 95 points gonna be $$$$.

That's an understatement

 

[jmwc95]

Dom has zero ounches of credibility in my book. He is guy that spends more time working on his "models" than actually observing what he is trying to model. I don't think he understands that models are not meant to replicate reality itself rather than to help you understand a component of reality.


I certainly wouldn't call Paryako a borderline #2/3 D man. He's more of a #1/2 like Brent Seabrook was. Let's not lose sight of what we have here.

I would call him more of a #3 d-man. I agree that he’s likely not one of the top 10 worst contracts, but let’s not act like he’s even as good as Seabrook in his prime the last 3 seasons. However, I will concede he was much better paired with Leddy. But if we’re going to generate a list of players on the Blues who have underperformed relative to expectations, he’s near the top of that list.

 

[BlueMed]

I would call him more of a #3 d-man. I agree that he’s likely not one of the top 10 worst contracts, but let’s not act like he’s even as good as Seabrook in his prime the last 3 seasons. However, I will concede he was much better paired with Leddy. But if we’re going to generate a list of players on the Blues who have underperformed relative to expectations, he’s near the top of that list.

"Let's not act like Parayko isn't as good as Seabrook these past 3 seasons?"

Really? The season before last, Parayko was playing with an injured back, and Seabrook was never anointed into the #1 spot in Chicago during his prime years. He had plenty of good partners like Keith and Hjalmarsson. He wasn't tasked to shut down the other team's top players with #5 guys like Mikkola and Scandella.

It's funny how quickly people talk up other team's players. Take McAvoy for instance who wasn't even the best defenseman in the cup finals. Petro and Parayko were clearly more impactful in that series.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Dom has zero ounches of credibility in my book. He is guy that spends more time working on his "models" than actually observing what he is trying to model. I don't think he understands that models are not meant to replicate reality itself rather than to help you understand a component of reality.

So much this