ChicagoBlues
Terraformers
- Oct 24, 2006
- 17,003
- 7,601
You're doing exactly what I think you should be doing. You're looking at the simple expressions and then looking for some sort of effect or interaction between these various simple expressions.My problem with statistical models in hockey is that they are often times black boxes. A whole host of statistical information is inserted into the black box, and it spits out a single easily expressed number. But the whole process of how that number was achieved is shrouded, either through being too complex or being proprietary.
I prefer simple advanced stats. Corsi is just the number of shot attempts either for or against. It doesn't express as much as a full statistical model, but I know what it means. I know its strengths and weaknesses. It doesn't lie, it just doesn't attempt to tell the full story. Since I inherently understand what it means, I can combine it with other factors (eye test, deployment stats, QoC stats, etc) to better understand the full picture myself.
With a full model, I don't know which of those factors the model weighted and how heavily, because its all in a black box. I can get a sense that the model heavily favors X while ignoring Y by looking at how it rates certain players. But that's a bit of work to just understand the model. I don't think understanding the model is the point. I think the point of a model is for people to substitute its opinion for their own. That doesn't work in a place where discussion can get as granular as it can here (ideally). We end up discussing the model more than the player, and that is inherently less interesting to me.
A lot of these "advanced" statistical methods are not valid or reliable.