2021-2022 S Blues Multi-Purpose Thread Part 3

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My problem with statistical models in hockey is that they are often times black boxes. A whole host of statistical information is inserted into the black box, and it spits out a single easily expressed number. But the whole process of how that number was achieved is shrouded, either through being too complex or being proprietary.

I prefer simple advanced stats. Corsi is just the number of shot attempts either for or against. It doesn't express as much as a full statistical model, but I know what it means. I know its strengths and weaknesses. It doesn't lie, it just doesn't attempt to tell the full story. Since I inherently understand what it means, I can combine it with other factors (eye test, deployment stats, QoC stats, etc) to better understand the full picture myself.

With a full model, I don't know which of those factors the model weighted and how heavily, because its all in a black box. I can get a sense that the model heavily favors X while ignoring Y by looking at how it rates certain players. But that's a bit of work to just understand the model. I don't think understanding the model is the point. I think the point of a model is for people to substitute its opinion for their own. That doesn't work in a place where discussion can get as granular as it can here (ideally). We end up discussing the model more than the player, and that is inherently less interesting to me.
You're doing exactly what I think you should be doing. You're looking at the simple expressions and then looking for some sort of effect or interaction between these various simple expressions.

A lot of these "advanced" statistical methods are not valid or reliable.
 
I always find it interesting where there's always a point when the season finishes and people sort of wipe their minds clean. Did everyone forget how well the Blues did of slowing down Mack and Makar. The O'Reilly line and Leddy/Parayko did a ton of work. Besides Mack's hat trick game, that we ended up winning, he was pretty much a non-factor. Only 1 team held him pointless in multiple games, and only 1 team held his goal scoring to 1 game.
The worst part of seeing which Blues perform well in the playoffs and which don't is that even a community like this can't remember immediately thereafter, and it tends to remember the opposite. For example there's no way a person who remembers the playoffs would be suggesting moving ROR. And yet I see casual comments in Bluesland about how Bolduc will be able to replace him in a year or two without a hint of acknowledgement how much that would set the team back instantly.
 


Nick Leddy was bad in the postseason and your eyes are lying to your brain if you think otherwise

I would recommend re-reading the tweet, the graph, and article if that's what you took a way from that. He was below average at shutting down rushes at his own blue line =/= he was bad. When the second part of the series comes out, showing which defenders were good at transitioning the puck out of their own zone, and he's in the upper right quadrant, will that fit the narrative as well?
 
I would recommend re-reading the tweet, the graph, and article if that's what you took a way from that. He was below average at shutting down rushes at his own blue line =/= he was bad. When the second part of the series comes out, showing which defenders were good at transitioning the puck out of their own zone, and he's in the upper right quadrant, will that fit the narrative as well?
He is in the upper right on possession exits. 52%+ complete 19.18% failed. Perunovich and Faulk were also in the top right as well.

Faulk was the only Blue to he in the top right in Zone Entry Defense, zone entries, and zone exits
 
He is in the upper right on possession exits. 52%+ complete 19.18% failed. Perunovich and Faulk were also in the top right as well.

Faulk was the only Blue to he in the top right in Zone Entry Defense, zone entries, and zone exits
Gotcha. I just saw the article was from this morning and he mentions part two so I assumed it hadn't been released yet. I knew he (Leddy) would be in the top right of exits because that's what he's good at and exactly why he was brought in to play with Parayko.

Faulk being in the top right of those three is not surprising in the least. I really do not understand how people could have watched him the past two years and come to the conclusion that he is a poor defenseman. It truly makes no sense.
 
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The worst part of seeing which Blues perform well in the playoffs and which don't is that even a community like this can't remember immediately thereafter, and it tends to remember the opposite. For example there's no way a person who remembers the playoffs would be suggesting moving ROR. And yet I see casual comments in Bluesland about how Bolduc will be able to replace him in a year or two without a hint of acknowledgement how much that would set the team back instantly.
100%

The Bozak-Acciari incident, for me, is a good example of this phenomenon in action.

I saw a trip, then I didn’t, then I did and so on.

Same with Acciari’s dive. He did, he didn’t and so on.

Perception is reality.
 
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Nick Leddy was bad in the postseason and your eyes are lying to your brain if you think otherwise


No, he wasn't. He was quite good. You have the same problem a lot people like Dom have. You make conclusions entirely based on the numbers. Your assessment should start with what you're seeing him do well/poorly during the game and the statistics can provide supportive data rather than be used to make an argument by itself. You have to use your understanding of the game and your awareness of what is actually happening to provide proper context. There is absolutely no way to tell an entire story of a player's performance based on a box score or a graph. Numbers may be objective but they are incredibly limited in their ability to measure and convey information.
 
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Faulk has just finally been used properly. First year was a disaster because he was used on his off-side and there wasn't never that consistent partner and usage. In his 2nd season, there was vast improvement because he was on a consistent pair and on his natural side, but he was used in a much more defensive role. This past season, we've maximized his performance by putting him in a role he's designed to be in, a more offensive focused top 4 role, and that resulted in the best season of his career.

And it kind of goes back to the Faulk vs Parayko discussion we've had before. I still don't think either are real #1 in the traditional sense, but together, they allow each other to focus on what they do best. Parayko can handle some of the hardest minutes in the league, and that allows Faulk to do his think in some of the more offensive top 4 minutes in the league. Weird to say since they aren't partners, but they complement each other great.
 
I completely agree with the opinion that Dom's model (and advanced stats in general) don't measure defensive defenseman even remotely well.

I vehemently disagree that Parayko is currently or has been performing like a #2/3 tweener D man. Comparisons to Seabrook's prime to support that notion are wild to me. That's like calling a guy a #2/3 center because he isn't performing like Malkin. Seabrook in his prime would have been a #1 D man on a lot of NHL teams and was the undisputed #2 on a borderline dynasty that had one of this generations clear cut Hall of Famers as their #1. Seabrook played the 11th most minutes of all NHL D from 2009/10-2015/16. 30th in minutes per game and 27th in even strength minutes per game over that stretch. He was a clear cut #1/2 tweener on a team that had a top 5 D man in the league as the #1. Seabrook got $5.8M a year as an RFA in 2011 when the cap was $59.4M. That is the percentage equivalent of $7.95M against the cap as it stood when Parayko signed his extension. Seabrook's first UFA contract was for $6.875M in 2015, which is equivalent to $7.85M when Parayko signed his extension. It takes him to 38 years old and had a full NMC for the first 6 years.

Parayko's contract absolutely doesn't set an expectation that he should be as good as Brent Seabrook in his prime.

He hasn't remotely been deployed as a #2/3 D man since Petro left. He led the Blues in TOI per game and was 26th league-wide. He led the team in even strength TOI per game (by 1:27 a night) and was 3rd league-wide. Roman Josi is the only player in the league who played more even strength minutes than Parayko last year and they were ludicrously easier minutes than Parayko got. Pretty much all of his minutes were hard minutes. He didn't pad the total TOI numbers with PP usage. 37 D men played 23+ minutes a night last year and Parayko's 17 seconds of PP TOI per game is the lowest of all of them. The next lowest is 31 seconds a night and there are only 3 of these 37 D men who got less than a minute a night on the PP. Parayko was consistently matched up against the opponent's top line, his O zone start rate was below 40% and he had a rotating door of middling partners all season. His most frequent partner last year was a guy that is universally considered overpaid at $3.275M. His 2nd most frequent partner was a guy who just signed at $1.9M rather than going to arbitration.

There is a very legitimate argument that Parayko's assignment/workload was the most difficult in the NHL last season. Despite that, he netted a respectable 35 points and was +16 (which was 7th on a team that had a very good +69 goal differential). The possession metrics are ugly, which is true of basically every guy around the league who gets deployed in a shut down role. I haven't seen any analysis that is critical of him that remotely acknowledges how difficult his usage was. It is always 'he gets a slight bump for his usage' without going into any detail about how no D man in the league was asked to do as much as he did.

Parayko is not an all situations clear cut #1D who can drag around a #4/5 level D man against top competition and still look like a stud for 23+ minutes an night. But I'm not sure that even 10 of those guys exist in today's NHL. There certainly aren't 10 guys who did that last year. The fact that he isn't that guy does not mean that he is suddenly a #2/3 D man.

Excellent post.

I don't think anyone was simultaneously saying he's a #2/3 and comparable to Seabrook. I think both players have a similar ability level and skillset. The difference being how they have been used. Seabrook had 50-55% O zone starts during his time in Chicago. We just saw Parayko with 37% o zone starts (63% D zone) this past season. Here in St. Louis, Parayko has been used a lot like Hjalmarsson was in Chicago (63-69% D zone starts). I still believe the main kink in our defense is Krug's lack of ability to defend during 5 on 5 play. That contract should have made Dom's list instead.
 
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Excellent post.

I don't think anyone was simultaneously saying he's a #2/3 and comparable to Seabrook. I think both players have a similar ability level and skillset. The difference being how they have been used. Seabrook had 50-55% O zone starts during his time in Chicago. We just saw Parayko with 37% o zone starts (63% D zone) this past season. Here in St. Louis, Parayko has been used a lot like Hjalmarsson was in Chicago (63-69% D zone starts). I still believe the main kink in our defense is Krug's lack of ability to defend during 5 on 5 play. That contract should have made Dom's list instead.
The funny thing is Dom's model almost makes Krug's deal look like a steal. Before he was injured it was projecting him as a 7.5mil market value player
 
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The funny thing is Dom's model almost makes Krug's deal look like a steal. Before he was injured it was projecting him as a 7.5mil market value player
And this is the problem I've had with advanced stats truthers, until they have figured a way to properly implement a modifier for defensive usage, I don't really care what a lot of the models say. You have to essentially compare defensive of similar usage to each other, that's the only way to compare apples to apples.

I think that day will eventually come where a model can be built that properly weights different partners and usage, where you can evaluate across the board, but until then, I'd just rather have models that compare defensemen of similar usage, and then you can maybe discuss the nuance of one guy had a better partner than another.
 
His model is just to help him with his game betting. Which is why he hates the Blues so much. "My Models say the Blues should suck, but, I keep losing when I bet against them, ugh"

To be fair, this isn’t correct. He dislikes them because the last 2 seasons total the
Blues have not made any sense. 2 years ago his model loved the Blues, and thought we would rival Colorado as one of the 2 best teams in the West. We obviously were far worse then that, so he lost a lot of money betting on us to win. Then this year we were basically a stastical anomaly to an absurd degree, with opposing goaltenders having a .876% save percentage against us, even though our shots for/against stats were mediocre. Everything about it this team in the last 2 years has been bad for betting, and probably will be this year too: logic says that shooting percentage doesn’t hold, but will the team improve enough to make it not matter?
 
Ha, no worries.


I’d like to see him with Toro - I think Toro’s uptempo game would rub off on him.
Agree. I’m willing to give him one more chance to see if they can form any chemistry together.

Actually speaking of Toro, we could really use Klim while Toro is out. I think Walker and Acciari will be the mainstays on that 4th line, but it would be nice to have a physical presence with size next to them.

So everybody is signed. Now we will see which player goes to get under the cap.
 
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