Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Entry Draft Thread

[Ray Martyniuk]

It's not that I don't see the value of defense, it's that historically even great defensive d-men are overvalued at the draft and think of how we were able to get similar dudes in Bjornfot and Anderson much, much later. Like drafting Price at 5 when Tuukka Rask is 21. It's a market inefficiency that people have typically moved away from so I'm shocked to see Sanderson jump so much.


Honestly look at the scouting report and highlights. These are the same dude, even down to the university, I'm calling it now.

https://thehockeywriters.com/jake-sanderson-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/




NHL 2010 Top Draft Prospects: Derek Forbort

Please not another Forbort type...is there a Tarasenko we could draft?

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

It's not that I don't see the value of defense, it's that historically even great defensive d-men are overvalued at the draft and think of how we were able to get similar dudes in Bjornfot and Anderson much, much later. Like drafting Price at 5 when Tuukka Rask is 21. It's a market inefficiency that people have typically moved away from so I'm shocked to see Sanderson jump so much.


Honestly look at the scouting report and highlights. These are the same dude, even down to the university, I'm calling it now.

https://thehockeywriters.com/jake-sanderson-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/




NHL 2010 Top Draft Prospects: Derek Forbort

That clip with Forbort was a High School clip right?He looks like a different player at 15-16 turning 17...Wow...scouting HS players is like scouting Bantam players in Canada...almost impossible to tell who's going to be great,good,average or a career minor leaguer

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

I would for sure, and I can imagine it's Lafreniere, Stutzle/Byfield that'll be fought over, then 3-10 are gonna be a frenzy

I could set it up this evening if you guys like and run them for 24 hours each? or longer?

Unless someone else beats me to it, which I'm 100% fine with since I'm bbqing lol

Count me in on this...how do I get involved?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That clip with Forbort was a High School clip right?He looks like a different player at 15-16 turning 17...Wow...scouting HS players is like scouting Bantam players in Canada...almost impossible to tell who's going to be great,good,average or a career minor leaguer

That's my point--you see all these clips of Forbort sniping in the slot and working the PP and taking advantage of lesser competition and you think "high ceiling and well he didn't score much at lower levels but if he puts it all together..." and typically they don't. I can't think of any examples of d-men who didn't completely offensively dominate lower levels that suddenly put it all together at the NHL level.

If he's at worst a stellar defensive d-man great, I just don't want to use a top-10 pick on a likely 2nd pairing guy that could be a #2 d-man. You don't get many top 10 picks, gotta swing for the fences. Can land 'safe' guys anywhere in the draft and you get infinitely more swings at them.

Count me in on this...how do I get involved?

@funky was gracious enough to set the first one up

 

[AlphaBravo]

I hope we avoid drafting a defenseman with our 1st round pick. All I want from a d-man is the ability to move the puck out of the zone, skate well, and be positionally sound. We do not need that wow factor to ice a competitive team, and already have Drew as our anchor and respectable depth. We can draft defensemen like this in later rounds. What this team has been missing for over a decade is a true sniper/scorer. The last player that fit that mold was Ziggy Palffy and perhaps Carter/Gabby for a short period. This is no knock on guys like Kopi and Brown, as they have a solid all around game. But it would be nice to have just a legit 40+ scorer for once.

 

[Rusty Batch]

I can't think of any examples of d-men who didn't completely offensively dominate lower levels that suddenly put it all together at the NHL level.





@funky was gracious enough to set the first one up

Jacob Trouba and Kevin Shattenkirk put up very similar usdp draft seasons offensively to Sanderson and were drafted in the same range.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Jacob Trouba and Kevin Shattenkirk put up very similar usdp draft seasons offensively to Sanderson and were drafted in the same range.

Good find! but there are some differences in their projections, as well. But they were drafted at 8 OA and 14 OA and became a good #2 (I'm flexible here, I know people see Trouba a lot of different ways, lol) and good 2nd pairing specialist. So if that's the comp, then yeah, I'm not exactly enamored with taking him at #7, never mind near the top 5.

We also knew Trouba had a cannon and had dominated two WJCs by his draft and that Shattenkirk was an offensive d-man while no one is projecting Sanderson that way, they take care to point out his shot is good not great and his hands are mediocre. So again, to me, I'm not excited about using a top-10 pick on a #2-#3 guy who is gonna be on PP#2 and PK. That doesn't make him bad and sure there's an argument, but like I said earlier, I feel like we'll have significant assets to pick up a Jake Muzzin type when the time is right if we don't already have them in the system.

 

[Rusty Batch]

Good find! but there are some differences in their projections, as well. But they were drafted at 8 OA and 14 OA and became a good #2 (I'm flexible here, I know people see Trouba a lot of different ways, lol) and good 2nd pairing specialist. So if that's the comp, then yeah, I'm not exactly enamored with taking him at #7, never mind near the top 5.

We also knew Trouba had a cannon and had dominated two WJCs by his draft and that Shattenkirk was an offensive d-man while no one is projecting Sanderson that way, they take care to point out his shot is good not great and his hands are mediocre. So again, to me, I'm not excited about using a top-10 pick on a #2-#3 guy who is gonna be on PP#2 and PK. That doesn't make him bad and sure there's an argument, but like I said earlier, I feel like we'll have significant assets to pick up a Jake Muzzin type when the time is right if we don't already have them in the system.

Fair enough. I was just trying to point out that for a true Defensive minded dman his offensive numbers are pretty impressive. Especially for a guy that is only two months from being in next year's draft.

 

[No Name The Nameless]

I hope we avoid drafting a defenseman with our 1st round pick. All I want from a d-man is the ability to move the puck out of the zone, skate well, and be positionally sound. We do not need that wow factor to ice a competitive team, and already have Drew as our anchor and respectable depth. We can draft defensemen like this in later rounds. What this team has been missing for over a decade is a true sniper/scorer. The last player that fit that mold was Ziggy Palffy and perhaps Carter/Gabby for a short period. This is no knock on guys like Kopi and Brown, as they have a solid all around game. But it would be nice to have just a legit 40+ scorer for once.

Cammy.

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

Anyone else kind of liking what they have seen from Nico Daws.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Fair enough. I was just trying to point out that for a true Defensive minded dman his offensive numbers are pretty impressive. Especially for a guy that is only two months from being in next year's draft.

And I'm definitely trying to be careful not to knock him either, I'd love to be wrong. I just find people being nondescript about his offensive talents and it's worrisome. He's got great feet and seems to move the puck well, he just doesn't really have much of a shot or really creative offensive IQ. Actually maybe it's less Derek Forbort and more Jay Bouwmeester. Like, you'd love to get a guy like that high in the draft, it's just how high is the question. I'm not comfortable at 7, that's all.

 

[raswilliam]

I am a Jaime Drysdale homer for sure. watch this video of him. His skating and Hockey IQ are deadly. Draft this dude and your breakout and PP QB problems are solved for the next decade.

 

[regulate]

And I'm definitely trying to be careful not to knock him either, I'd love to be wrong. I just find people being nondescript about his offensive talents and it's worrisome. He's got great feet and seems to move the puck well, he just doesn't really have much of a shot or really creative offensive IQ. Actually maybe it's less Derek Forbort and more Jay Bouwmeester. Like, you'd love to get a guy like that high in the draft, it's just how high is the question. I'm not comfortable at 7, that's all.

I've heard Bouwmeester and even Ryan Suter thrown around as comparable playing styles to Sanderson. I've also heard scouts say he's a 3 or 4 defensemen, so it's will be all about what the Kings scouting staff says. But I agree I'd be a bit on the fence as far as choosing him at #7, mainly due to the fact if we miss on Drysdale with a lower pick, I'd prefer a forward. If we took a D at 7 or 8, I'd prefer it would be to us trading down so we could draft an offensive player with another 1st round pick in the mid-teens if we moved down 3 or 4 spots (It would be a tough deal to pull off, and NJ would likely be the only trading partner for this to happen, it would take a lot to occur as far as the lottery + some of NJ picks have conditions that would have to be met).

 

[No Name The Nameless]

I've heard Bouwmeester and even Ryan Suter thrown around as comparable playing styles to Sanderson. I've also heard scouts say he's a 3 or 4 defensemen, so it's will be all about what the Kings scouting staff says. But I agree I'd be a bit on the fence as far as choosing him at #7, mainly due to the fact if we miss on Drysdale with a lower pick, I'd prefer a forward. If we took a D at 7 or 8, I'd prefer it would be to us trading down so we could draft an offensive player with another 1st round pick in the mid-teens if we moved down 3 or 4 spots (It would be a tough deal to pull off, and NJ would likely be the only trading partner for this to happen, it would take a lot to occur as far as the lottery + some of NJ picks have conditions that would have to be met).

Is there really scouts saying he's a 3/4 or is there scouts saying he COULD END UP AS A 3/4? I've read a few say that he is closer to a 3/4 but the vein of that statement was more like hedging.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Is there really scouts saying he's a 3/4 or is there scouts saying he COULD END UP AS A 3/4? I've read a few say that he is closer to a 3/4 but the vein of that statement was more like hedging.

I haven't seen anyone bold enough to say he'll be a #1, all say his ceiling is a good #2, most likely a 2nd pairing guy. The biggest issue I have is that he's a late riser, most people early had him ranked late in the 1st, early in the second, then his showing at the biosteel thing freaked everyone out. I'm wary.

Look at how the praise evolves in the year, and it raises a bit of a red flag for me.

Jake Sanderson | Jake Sanderson Profile | Jake Sanderson Scouting Report 2020

Development is good, but taking a guy from 30th to top-1o in a few months when his game is still nondescript is worrying. COULD develop offensively, COULD have room for growth, etc...and STILL only end up a #2? That doesn't read or look like a top 10 pick to me. It really just reeks of people trying to close the gap between Drysdale and the next guy.

 

[BringTheReign]

I haven't seen anyone bold enough to say he'll be a #1, all say his ceiling is a good #2, most likely a 2nd pairing guy. The biggest issue I have is that he's a late riser, most people early had him ranked late in the 1st, early in the second, then his showing at the biosteel thing freaked everyone out. I'm wary.

Look at how the praise evolves in the year, and it raises a bit of a red flag for me.

Jake Sanderson | Jake Sanderson Profile | Jake Sanderson Scouting Report 2020

Development is good, but taking a guy from 30th to top-1o in a few months when his game is still nondescript is worrying. COULD develop offensively, COULD have room for growth, etc...and STILL only end up a #2? That doesn't read or look like a top 10 pick to me. It really just reeks of people trying to close the gap between Drysdale and the next guy.

Agreed. Early physical development relative to peers has been the shiny, poison apple to many an NHL scout. They've all been listed in this thread, but Teubert, Forbort, McIlrath, Ellerby, Gubrandson, etc. all come to mind.

I trust our development staff to take guys from raw tools to a player that projects to be Sanderson (e.g. Matt Roy, Cole Hults--I hope). On the flip side, you can't as easily teach a player the instincts that Drysdale has.

 

[funky]

Has anyone here followed Kevin Musto. Not sure his background? He posted his top 62 list on the prospects board. Has some player write ups. Definitely didn’t follow popular consensus, He has Rossi at #2 and Perfetti in the teens.

His boldest listing is Marat Khusnutdinov At #6 ahead of Drysdale and a few others we deem to be higher. He has Mercer at 9 and Sanderson at 23.

He also gives Wallinder some love at 17.

thought it was an interesting take.

 

[kilowatt]

I haven't seen anyone bold enough to say he'll be a #1, all say his ceiling is a good #2, most likely a 2nd pairing guy. The biggest issue I have is that he's a late riser, most people early had him ranked late in the 1st, early in the second, then his showing at the biosteel thing freaked everyone out. I'm wary.

Look at how the praise evolves in the year, and it raises a bit of a red flag for me.

Jake Sanderson | Jake Sanderson Profile | Jake Sanderson Scouting Report 2020

Development is good, but taking a guy from 30th to top-1o in a few months when his game is still nondescript is worrying. COULD develop offensively, COULD have room for growth, etc...and STILL only end up a #2? That doesn't read or look like a top 10 pick to me. It really just reeks of people trying to close the gap between Drysdale and the next guy.

Wheeler’s thoughts on Sanderson:

19. Jake Sanderson — LHD, NTDP, 6-foot-1.5

There are things about Sanderson’s game and season that can’t be disputed. He was excellent in the second half, which is likely linked to his summer birthday and the added runway he had (and has) to continue to develop as a result. He’s an excellent skater. I used to think his skating was just very good but it’s better than that, particularly in straight lines (though also laterally). He’s a mature, polished defender for his age, not only in the way he defends the rush but also off the cycle with the decisions he makes on reads and pressure. I would, however, dispute his offensive upside. Some scouts believe Sanderson to be the clear No. 2 defenceman in this draft. Many of those same scouts believe he has the potential to be a first pairing defenceman. That’s where I disagree, or at least where I have my doubts. Will Sanderson be able to run a power play as he progresses up levels as he has with the NTDP? Probably. But I don’t think he’s so dynamic that he’s going to be a game-breaking offensive threat or a PP1 guy.

Sanderson projects more as a well-rounded second-pairing defender for me and I will track his collegiate career closely to see if he can change my mind. With Senators prospect Jonny Tychonick leaving North Dakota for Omaha next fall and captain Colton Poolman graduating, Sanderson will likely be asked to do a lot behind Jacob-Bernard Docker and Matt Kiersted as a freshman with the Fighting Hawks next season.

 

[kilowatt]

Interestingly, Wheeler’s top 20 is as follows:

1. Lafreniere
2. Byfield
3. Rossi
4. Perfetti
5. Raymond
6. Holtz
7. Stutzle
8. Drysdale
9. Lundell
10. Gunler
11. Askarov
12. Mysak
13. Zary
14. Quinn
15. Bourque
16. Jarvis
17. Holloway
18. Mercer
19. Sanderson
20. Amirov

 

[ricardfromage]

I saw Sanderson a few times this season and see him as AMart jr. He looks exactly like Marty did at the same point in his career at Miami. They both have the exact same gate in their stride and the same confidence carrying the puck. IF Jake makes it to the NHL and is at least an AMart comparable then he will be a steal at the 9-13 spot but I wouldn't take him anywhere higher up then that.

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

Anyone else kind of liking what they have seen from Nico Daws.

I see the Kings drafting a 'tender 4th-5th round. Have the Kings signed David Hrenak I haven't seen anything? Going back for his Senior year could be very good for him

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

I saw Sanderson a few times this season and see him as AMart jr. He looks exactly like Marty did at the same point in his career at Miami. They both have the exact same gate in their stride and the same confidence carrying the puck. IF Jake makes it to the NHL and is at least an AMart comparable then he will be a steal at the 9-13 spot but I wouldn't take him anywhere higher up then that.

Montreal could take him at 8 if everything stays as they are

 

[LAKings88]

Top six I hope for one of:

Lafrenière
Byfield
Stutzle
Raymond
Drysdale
Rossi

Picking seventh I hope for one of:

Holtz
Lundell
Perfetti

I will be ecstatic with any top six player.

Happy with the other three but not super stoked.

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

I hope we avoid drafting a defenseman with our 1st round pick. All I want from a d-man is the ability to move the puck out of the zone, skate well, and be positionally sound. We do not need that wow factor to ice a competitive team, and already have Drew as our anchor and respectable depth. We can draft defensemen like this in later rounds. What this team has been missing for over a decade is a true sniper/scorer. The last player that fit that mold was Ziggy Palffy and perhaps Carter/Gabby for a short period. This is no knock on guys like Kopi and Brown, as they have a solid all around game. But it would be nice to have just a legit 40+ scorer for once.

I was with you all the way about scorers and LA's huge need! Then you lost me at scorers and Brown's name came up...

 

[apadilla]

I was with you all the way about scorers and LA's huge need! Then you lost me at scorers and Brown's name came up...

News to some, but Dustin does have 299 goals in his career, all with the Kings. That's 207th all time in the NHL, and still moving up the charts! Now Dustin did have some off years towards the end of Sutter's reign, but has bounced back and is a solid 21-25 a year goal scorer in his mid 30's. Not to shabby.