Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft Part 2

[AngelDuck]

Signing or Trading for a superstar is not as easy as you think. The only free agent superstar the Ducks have EVER signed was Niedermayer, and that was because his brother played here.

You’re right about signing a superstar, it’s incredibly rare and really just isn’t going to happen for a team like Anaheim.

trading for a star isn’t as hard as you think it is and has been done multiple times by teams almost every season or offseason. Is it easy? No, but no one is suggesting Murray has to do it every single offseason. He just needs to find the right player and make it happen once. He’s already done it once with Kesler. This time he needs to find someone younger that fits in with our future core

Tyler Seguin was traded, Taylor Hall was traded, Phil Kessel, Jeff Carter...the list goes on

Hell, Joe Thornton, Teemu Selanne, and Chris Pronger were all traded at one point

 

[Goose of Reason]

Tracey was the best offensive player on 2 different teams last year, but they happened to be the 2nd and 6th worst teams offensively in the WHL. I'm surprised he didn't get an invite to world junior camp but he didn't have a bad year for a late first round pick.

 

[Paul4587]

I finally watched the Holtz video at first glance it does seem like he would be a natural fit with Zegras but is taking him 6 a reach?

Pretty much. Very good prospect but at 6 you would probably want a more multi dimensional player who is capable of driving play themselves.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Tracey was the best offensive player on 2 different teams last year, but they happened to be the 2nd and 6th worst teams offensively in the WHL. I'm surprised he didn't get an invite to world junior camp but he didn't have a bad year for a late first round pick.

2018-19: Moose Jaw = 81 points (36 goals) in 66 games for a 1.22 ppg average. That's with two overagers on his line who also scored often.

2019-20: Moose Jaw = 38 points (15 goals) in 28 games for a 1.35 ppg average. This is without those two overagers and it's just him carrying the team.
............... Victoria = 23 points (7 goals) in 24 games for a 0.95 ppg average. Victoria is a defensive minded team.
............... Total = 61 points (22 goals) in 52 games for a 1.17 ppg average.

Recall how many on the board thought that Tracey rode on the coats of his overager linemates Langan (113 pts) and Almieda (111 pts). We needed to see if Tracey could score on his own. Apparently, not only could he score on his own, he raised his scoring rate as well from his previous year. His 38 points for Moose Jaw would rank him as the 3rd highest scorer for the Moose Jaw when the season ended. That's how productive Tracey was for Moose Jaw and what they lost offensively.

On Jan 9, 2020, Trade:
Moose Jaw Warriors sent

LW Tracey
G Evanoff (3.85 GA, 0.901 sv%, and 5-14-1 in 22 games)
2020 4th rd pick
2023 5th rd pick​

Victoria Royals sent

F Doust
G Gould (2.81 GA, 0.899 sv%, and 6-6-1 in 15 games)
D Nolan Jones
2020 3rd rd pick
2021 1st rd pick
2022 2nd rd pick and 4th rd pick​

Victoria	Games	GF	GA	W	L	OTL	Pts		GF/g	GA/g
Total	64	176	190	32	24	6	70		2.75	2.97
	37	94	92	22	13	0	44		2.54	2.49
After Trade for Tracey	27	82	98	10	11	6	26		3.04	3.63

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The goal scoring went up 0.50. Tracey was able to improve the team's scoring. (Tracey did miss 3 games due to an injury.) Unfortunately, the goals against went up 1.14. Evanoff played in 23 games for Victoria and had a 0.893 sv%, but unfortunately had a GAA of 3.56.

While Tracey didn't bring his 1.35 points-per-game (ppg) average over, he still was almost a point-per-game player and lead the defensive minded Royals in that ppg category, along with winning Victoria's Top Scorer award.

Victoria
	GP	G	A	Pts	PPG
Tracey	24	7	16	23	0.958
Haden	62	25	30	55	0.887
Fizer	57	19	34	53	0.930
Oliver	51	22	25	47	0.922

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With Victoria, Tracey is learning to play within the defensive side of the game because that's how the Royals are constructed. That's a plus for us Duck fans. Did you also know he took 63 faceoff attempts for the Royals, whereas he only took 6 faceoff attempts with the Warriors?

Tracey answered our worries about being able to score without the two overagers. We should be ecstatic. After the trade, Tracey increased the Royals scoring by 0.50 goals per game on a defensive team that had a lower scoring output (ranking 6th worst goal scoring at the end of the season). It's a shame we couldn't see how the playoffs could have been with Tracey. Like @Goose of Reason mentioned, Tracey was the offensive driving force for two different teams last year.

 

[Goose of Reason]

2018-19: Moose Jaw = 81 points (36 goals) in 66 games for a 1.22 ppg average. That's with two overagers on his line who also scored often.

2019-20: Moose Jaw = 38 points (15 goals) in 28 games for a 1.35 ppg average. This is without those two overagers and it's just him carrying the team.
............... Victoria = 23 points (7 goals) in 24 games for a 0.95 ppg average. Victoria is a defensive minded team.
............... Total = 61 points (22 goals) in 52 games for a 1.17 ppg average.

Recall how many on the board thought that Tracey rode on the coats of his overager linemates Langan (113 pts) and Almieda (111 pts). We needed to see if Tracey could score on his own. Apparently, not only could he score on his own, he raised his scoring rate as well from his previous year. His 38 points for Moose Jaw would rank him as the 3rd highest scorer for the Moose Jaw when the season ended. That's how productive Tracey was for Moose Jaw and what they lost offensively.

On Jan 9, 2020, Trade:
Moose Jaw Warriors sent

LW Tracey
G Evanoff (3.85 GA, 0.901 sv%, and 5-14-1 in 22 games)
2020 4th rd pick
2023 5th rd pick​

Victoria Royals sent

F Doust
G Gould (2.81 GA, 0.899 sv%, and 6-6-1 in 15 games)
D Nolan Jones
2020 3rd rd pick
2021 1st rd pick
2022 2nd rd pick and 4th rd pick​

Victoria	Games	GF	GA	W	L	OTL	Pts		GF/g	GA/g
Total	64	176	190	32	24	6	70		2.75	2.97
	37	94	92	22	13	0	44		2.54	2.49
After Trade for Tracey	27	82	98	10	11	6	26		3.04	3.63

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The goal scoring went up 0.50. Tracey was able to improve the team's scoring. (Tracey did miss 3 games due to an injury.) Unfortunately, the goals against went up 1.14. Evanoff played in 23 games for Victoria and had a 0.893 sv%, but unfortunately had a GAA of 3.56.

While Tracey didn't bring his 1.35 points-per-game (ppg) average over, he still was almost a point-per-game player and lead the defensive minded Royals in that ppg category, along with winning Victoria's Top Scorer award.

Victoria
	GP	G	A	Pts	PPG
Tracey	24	7	16	23	0.958
Haden	62	25	30	55	0.887
Fizer	57	19	34	53	0.930
Oliver	51	22	25	47	0.922

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With Victoria, Tracey is learning to play within the defensive side of the game because that's how the Royals are constructed. That's a plus for us Duck fans. Did you also know he took 63 faceoff attempts for the Royals, whereas he only took 6 faceoff attempts with the Warriors?

Tracey answered our worries about being able to score without the two overagers. We should be ecstatic. After the trade, Tracey increased the Royals scoring by 0.50 goals per game on a defensive team that had a lower scoring output (ranking 6th worst goal scoring at the end of the season). It's a shame we couldn't see how the playoffs could have been with Tracey. Like @Goose of Reason mentioned, Tracey was the offensive driving force for two different teams last year.

Great post. I was wondering about a lot of these numbers earlier but was too lazy to put the work in lol. Thanks for doing this.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Pretty much. Very good prospect but at 6 you would probably want a more multi dimensional player who is capable of driving play themselves.

Holtz finished 5th in goal scoring with 9 goals and 10th overall in points scored with 16 points for his SHL team as a 17-year old kid last year.

Anaheim last year had a 2.56 GF/g average, which ranked 29th in the league. The GA/g average was 3.15 goals, which gives the Ducks a -0.59 goal differential. Also, the Ducks had the fewest PPGs last year with 27 PP goals (31st) and a PP efficiency of 14.7%, ranking next to last (30th).

At 6th overall, you want a good player. Sure, everyone wants a multi-dimensional player, but everyone has their own opinion if a player is multi-dimensional. Maybe some people also want to look at the macro state of the team with this singular addition.

The team is secure at goalie for a long while. GM Bob might have secured the defense at the NHL level for a couple of years or more, which can help improve that GA/game average. What the front office has a problem with is finding goal scorers.

GF/g

2019-20: 2.56 GF/g (29th), 182 g
2018-19: 2.39 GF/g (31st), 196 g
2017-18: 2.82 GF/g (18th), 231 g
2016-17: 2.68 GF/g (18th), 220 g
2015-16: 2.62 GF/g (17th), 215 g​

PPG and PPeff

2019-20: 27 PPG (31st), 14.7% PPeff (30th)
2018-19: 36 PPG (26th), 17.0% PPeff (24th)
2017-18: 38 PPG (29th), 17.8% PPeff (23rd)
2016-17: 47 PPG (13th), 18.7% PPeff (17th)
2015-16: 56 PPG (4th), 23.0% PPeff (1st)​

PPG Pct of total goals for

2019-20: 27 PPG is 14.8% of total goals for
2018-19: 36 PPG is 18.3% of total goals for
2017-18: 38 PPG is 16.4% of total goals for
2016-17: 47 PPG is 21.3% of total goals for
2015-16: 56 PPG is 26.0% of total goals for​

The team has a plethora of youthful forwards that are still developing, but last year landed a top-end talent in C Trevor Zegras. Zegras is an offensive driver who is amazing distributor. We still don't possess a finisher in our system. Taking a goal scorer who's proved he can score at every level, including at a men's level of play, sounds like a long term plan to match with the ultimate distributor, especially at the PP. We need scoring in our system.

Holtz is more than just a simple goal scorer. He can score flat footed or on the move. He can also distribute the puck, which his 7 assists in the SHL does support. If we all think Teemu is a dynamic player, then why isn't Holtz valued in that similar light? We lived with a Corey Perry, and he isn't fast at all. We chuckle about Rakell's defense. (I had a brain fart on the assist. Holt had 9 goals and 7 assists for 16 points.)

Anyhow, we know you don't care much for Holtz at all and that's your opinion he's simply a one-trick pony. We're picking 6th overall, not 1st overall. There's a consensus top-3 and then everything's a mixed bag. So there's that about picking 6th overall.

 

[bsu]

Please don't take Holtz at #6.

 

[sasha barkov]

I've thought Holtz would be the Ducks pick since day one. Barron is solid, I could see that. I like Wallinder better though.

I’d take Wallinder too , although I feel Madden has been eyeing Barron for sometime

 

[bsu]

Reichel needs to be our second 1st if he's available

 

[KaseMeOutside]

You’re right about signing a superstar, it’s incredibly rare and really just isn’t going to happen for a team like Anaheim.

trading for a star isn’t as hard as you think it is and has been done multiple times by teams almost every season or offseason. Is it easy? No, but no one is suggesting Murray has to do it every single offseason. He just needs to find the right player and make it happen once. He’s already done it once with Kesler. This time he needs to find someone younger that fits in with our future core

Tyler Seguin was traded, Taylor Hall was traded, Phil Kessel, Jeff Carter...the list goes on

Hell, Joe Thornton, Teemu Selanne, and Chris Pronger were all traded at one point

I think we can sign stars IF the team is good and we're willing to pay market value but as we see time after time free agency is a bad investment unless its a true 1c like Tavares or a 1d like Suter then it's worth it.

Anaheim should be a team that puts significant resources towards draft and development over the long term it just provides a better value to the team but we have no idea if they do or not

 

[Rasp]

Reichel needs to be our second 1st if he's available

I would love to get him with our second pick but I reckon he will be gone. I have him ranked 15th atm.

 

[Paul4587]

I’d take Wallinder too , although I feel Madden has been eyeing Barron for sometime

Is there any intel behind this or just a hunch?

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

For me imo I want either Raymond or holtz

nobody else in our range really entice me

 

[Sean Garrity]

Please don't take Holtz at #6.

Why not and who do you prefer? My potential draft pick knowledge this year is putrid at best so I’m just curious your thought process and looking for some insight.

 

[bsu]

Why not and who do you prefer? My potential draft pick knowledge this year is putrid at best so I’m just curious your thought process and looking for some insight.

I want a line driver not another passenger (although he is a good one) yes we could use scoring but we could also use someone that can hold onto the puck and make something happen. Our forwards need creativity as of right now we have zero other than flashes of Getzlaf and Rakell when he wants to not be lazy every 8 games. Terry has some creativity but he's too weak at the moment and we traded Kase away. All our forwards are sand paper we need line drivers that can make something happen with the puck on their stick.

Yeah we suck at scoring goals but adding 1 shooter is not going to help, we need players that can actually create something which is why I am excited about Zegras. All of forwards are so f***ing predictable with the puck, Silf, Henrique, Rakell last season, Heinen, Jones, Steel, Comtois, Rowney, all of them.

I prefer all these players to Holtz
Raymond
Rossi
Perfetti
Sanderson
Drysdale
I have Quinn very close to Holtz

 

[Paul4587]

Why not and who do you prefer? My potential draft pick knowledge this year is putrid at best so I’m just curious your thought process and looking for some insight.

I’ll add my two cents also.

Holtz has a great shot and is capable of making decent plays - he’s got good vision and playmaking skills when he uses them. But he’s not a great skater and is weak in his own end. Furthermore his shot selection is pretty questionable - he doesn’t really go to the dirty areas to score goals, instead relying a lot on shooting from the perimeter. While his shot is good enough that he will beat plenty of goalies in the SHL from all sorts of angles, it will be tough for him to replicate that success without learning how to play in the tougher areas more often and going to the middle of the ice more.

He’s a sure fire NHLer but I’m not sure he has elite upside. I see almost a guaranteed 20 goals, maybe 30 in a career year. But I see him hitting those numbers as a more complimentary forward than the guy driving his line.

I’ve got him around 9-10. Some rankings have him higher (I think I’ve seen him as high as 5) where as some have him lower (I think the lowest I’ve seen him is 13). I have him and Quinn roughly equal, I lean slightly towards Quinn because he is more willing to take a beating to score goals in addition to having a great shot.

 

[Rasp]

I’ll add my two cents also.

Holtz has a great shot and is capable of making decent plays - he’s got good vision and playmaking skills when he uses them. But he’s not a great skater and is weak in his own end. Furthermore his shot selection is pretty questionable - he doesn’t really go to the dirty areas to score goals, instead relying a lot on shooting from the perimeter. While his shot is good enough that he will beat plenty of goalies in the SHL from all sorts of angles, it will be tough for him to replicate that success without learning how to play in the tougher areas more often and going to the middle of the ice more.

He’s a sure fire NHLer but I’m not sure he has elite upside. I see almost a guaranteed 20 goals, maybe 30 in a career year. But I see him hitting those numbers as a more complimentary forward than the guy driving his line.

I’ve got him around 9-10. Some rankings have him higher (I think I’ve seen him as high as 5) where as some have him lower (I think the lowest I’ve seen him is 13). I have him and Quinn roughly equal, I lean slightly towards Quinn because he is more willing to take a beating to score goals in addition to having a great shot.

Yep this is why I like Quinn more. He isnt as much of a sniper but is way better defensively and will do what it takes to score. He also a little taller and has more room to grow into his body.

 

[bsu]

If Holtz hits his absolute max potential I see a Boeser type imo which is not bad at all but if other players hit their absolute max potential ie Raymond = Marner/Barzal type, Rossi = Point/Marchand type Perfetti = Kane type I prefer that, a game changer.

 

[eternalbedhead]

I don't get why we can't just draft BPA. Yes, we need a goal scorer, but we need just about everything, because we have precisely one bona-fide (non-goalie) prospect in our system along with a bunch of could-bes and maybes. We need more finishers, play-drivers like Zegras, minute-eating defensemen, offensive defensemen, defensive defensemen... the list goes on. Holtz isn't a bad prospect by any means but he's almost certainly not BPA at #6, and it'd be a mistake for us to choose him simply because he has the "goal-scorer" tag attached to his skillset, or because we're stat-watching his eliteprospects page.

 

[gilfaizon]

I don't get why we can't just draft BPA. Yes, we need a goal scorer, but we need just about everything, because we have precisely one bona-fide (non-goalie) prospect in our system along with a bunch of could-bes and maybes. We need more finishers, play-drivers like Zegras, minute-eating defensemen, offensive defensemen, defensive defensemen... the list goes on. Holtz isn't a bad prospect by any means but he's almost certainly not BPA at #6, and it'd be a mistake for us to choose him simply because he has the "goal-scorer" tag attached to his skillset, or because we're stat-watching his eliteprospects page.

We will draft the BPA, the Holtz lovers will not be happy

 

[Rasp]

Its not like we are drafting 3rd and its clear who BPA is. There are a bunch of players worthy of our pick so when they are even prospects then need comes into it to differentiate them.

I'll have 7 players available when we get to pick 6 that I wont melt over if they are slected. Some are better than others but when it comes down to it we have the best scouts in the league and we will trust them with whatever decision they make.

 

[bsu]

#6 is a great spot in this draft.

 

[Kalv]

I can't wait for the draft night. What's great is there will be less time from draft to start of the season than usual. Is it October yet?

Something, something, I agree to Billy Joel Armstrong and Green Day

 

[Trojans86]

If Holtz hits his absolute max potential I see a Boeser type imo which is not bad at all but if other players hit their absolute max potential ie Raymond = Marner/Barzal type, Rossi = Point/Marchand type Perfetti = Kane type I prefer that, a game changer.

I like this take. At 6 you have a prospect that can be elite. Take a chance on a guy that has potential rather than settle for a Boesser type safety pick. Raymond and Rossi sound really interesting to me.

 

[Static]

Raymond 2+1 today. He might take himself out of our range in the next month.