NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART IV

[Benttheknee]

Assuming the standing remain as they are today Ott 3rd last, Anaheim is 4th last and SJ 5th last, prepare yourself for 5th and 7th as the draft picks.

We all know this is random, based on finish, but the most common outcome from the draft simulator is 5th and 7th and when you think about the system, this makes perfect sense.
The Senators have a roughly 50/50 chance of landing a top 3 pick, this includes the chances of an Ottawa and/or SJ lottery win. Assuming they don't get that top 3 pick then 5th and 7th becomes a pretty high certainty.

If they don't land in the top 3, it automatically means that teams lower that Ottawa jumped into the top 3 and more than likely 2 of them. That pushes Sens to 5th. Chances are likely that Anaheim wasn't one of the teams that won the lottery, so that pushes SJ to 7th.

So, if you run the draft simulator and exclude the ones where the Sens have a top 3 pick. There is a good chance they are drafting 5th and 7th with Anaheim drafting 6th. If they aren't, it means Anaheim is in the top 3.

Use the tankathon draft simulator and just ignore any top 3 pick results and you will see how common 5th and 7th is. I am not mathematician but I would guess that 5/7 comes up about 25% of the time in all cases and 50% of the time with no top 3 pick.

(I hope that was clear )

The point is really to say don't be surprised if Ottawa is drafting 5th and lower.

 

[Icelevel]

Assuming the standing remain as they are today Ott 3rd last, Anaheim is 4th last and SJ 5th last, prepare yourself for 5th and 7th as the draft picks.

We all know this is random, based on finish, but the most common outcome from the draft simulator is 5th and 7th and when you think about the system, this makes perfect sense.
The Senators have a roughly 50/50 chance of landing a top 3 pick, this includes the chances of an Ottawa and/or SJ lottery win. Assuming they don't get that top 3 pick then 5th and 7th becomes a pretty high certainty.

If they don't land in the top 3, it automatically means that teams lower that Ottawa jumped into the top 3 and more than likely 2 of them. That pushes Sens to 5th. Chances are likely that Anaheim wasn't one of the teams that won the lottery, so that pushes SJ to 7th.

So, if you run the draft simulator and exclude the ones where the Sens have a top 3 pick. There is a good chance they are drafting 5th and 7th with Anaheim drafting 6th. If they aren't, it means Anaheim is in the top 3.

Use the tankathon draft simulator and just ignore any top 3 pick results and you will see how common 5th and 7th is. I am not mathematician but I would guess that 5/7 comes up about 25% of the time in all cases and 50% of the time with no top 3 pick.

(I hope that was clear )

The point is really to say don't be surprised if Ottawa is drafting 5th and lower.

i'll be surprised

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Karel Klikorka at eliteprospects.com

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I really dont trust any business when it comes to lottery balls and sending superstars to random cities. if Melnyk had more good will I could see the league being like "we can rejuvenate the Ottawa market in a single second. if montreal in in the lottery that could be very dangerous with a french Canadian at first over all

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I broke down the Sens' moves and what they have going on for the 2020 draft

Senators trade deadline analysis: Ottawa primed for huge offseason overhaul

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Cat Herder]

Would you rather

1. Have 1st overall and 7th

or

2. Have 2nd and 3rd

 

[JonnyMacSen]

Would you rather

1. Have 1st overall and 7th

or

2. Have 2nd and 3rd

Byfield/Stutzle + Raymond/Drysdale please!

 

[NyQuil]

Byfield/Stutzle + Raymond/Drysdale please!

Probably a better hockey situation, but from a marketing perspective, Lafreniere could be huge in this town.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Would you rather

1. Have 1st overall and 7th

or

2. Have 2nd and 3rd

1 + 7.

IMO, Lafreniere is a level above everyone else in this draft, and beyond the on-ice stuff, he is exactly what this organization needs to re-energize the city. He would be a marketing coup.

And with how deep the draft is, I think there's a good chance you get a player as good at 7 as you would at 3.

Let's say Lafreniere, Stutzle, Byfield, Drysdale, Raymond and Rossi were gone. You could still draft Holtz, Perfetti or Lundell. Pretty good.

 

[Crosside]

Would you rather

1. Have 1st overall and 7th

or

2. Have 2nd and 3rd

1 and 7 no question

 

[BondraTime]

The difference between Laf and #2 is bigger than the difference between #3 and#7 imo.

You go with Laf and #7 easily

 

[SensFan1010]

Byfield is a year younger .. does anyone think he has a chance to pass laf at some point in his career and be the better player overall

 

[Sensinitis]

Gimme Laf + Rossi/Perfetti

 

[SensontheRush]

If we do draft 1st overall, I really do hope that this does not shape up to be a Daigle situation...

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Would you rather

1. Have 1st overall and 7th

or

2. Have 2nd and 3rd

Already asked on here a few days ago. 1 + 7 for me.
Laf is worth it and someone like Rossi/Perfetti/Lundell at 7 is better than Byfield and Stutzle/Raymond

 

[Answer]

Already asked on here a few days ago. 1 + 7 for me.
Laf is worth it and someone like Rossi/Perfetti/Lundell at 7 is better than Byfield and Stutzle/Raymond

If we are fortunate to draft Lafreniere, then we have to draft a Center with the SJ pick

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

If we are fortunate to draft Lafreniere, then we have to draft a Center with the SJ pick

Do we? I'd say go BPA all the way. at 7 that could very well be Lundell. Hypothetically someone if someone like Drysdale falls to 7 and he's BPA on your list you take him. I bet if the Habs had a do-over in 2018 they would not draft for position

 

[Benttheknee]

i'll be surprised

Not now because I have prepared you

 

[GCK]

Would you rather

1. Have 1st overall and 7th

or

2. Have 2nd and 3rd

1st and 7th.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Byfield is a year younger .. does anyone think he has a chance to pass laf at some point in his career and be the better player overall

For sure there's a chance. Any of the rest of the top four could realistically go on to be the better than Lafreniere.

Much has been made of this point that Lafreniere is in a class of his own. But that's because of the combination of upside, NHL- certainty and -readiness.

Raymond and Stützle could be a couple years from NHL-ready, and Byfield probably takes a few years to come into his own in the NHL, and all three have risks involved, but nobody should be surprised if any of them end up better than Lafreniere.

 

[Cat Herder]

Already asked on here a few days ago. 1 + 7 for me.
Laf is worth it and someone like Rossi/Perfetti/Lundell at 7 is better than Byfield and Stutzle/Raymond

Didnt realize it was already asked... even though this question is technically about the draft I think we should be able to make a unique thread for polls like this

 

[MatchesMalone]

The first overall pick often doesn't end up the best player in a given draft, there are almost always better players picked later in the first round, and sometimes even outside the first round. Who are some players expected to go later in the draft that you could imagine going on to be the best, or one of the best players in the class?

I'm guessing Marat Khustnudinov, Rodion Amirov, Antonio Stranges or Dylan Peterson.