NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART IV

[HSF]

best case scenario the league decides not to have a lottery and we draft from point percentage

 

[MatchesMalone]

best case scenario the league decides not to have a lottery and we draft from point percentage

There will still be a lottery, based on point percentage. Only difference is maybe every team will be entered, which will decrease the odds for worst teams.

 

[Pavlikovsky]

I don't think Tankathon does the the math the right way, teams in the 10 to 15 range win a top 3 pick almost every time. and MTL wins it a abnormal amount.

5,6 MIN won 1st
3,5 MTL won 1st
4,5 LA won 1st
3,5 DET won 1st
1,4 SJS won 1st (our SJS pick)
4,5 DET won 1st
2,4 MTL won 1st
5,6 MTL won 1st
5,6 MTL won 1st
1,4 SJS won 1st (our SJS pick

 

[HSF]

There will still be a lottery, based on point percentage. Only difference is maybe every team will be entered, which will decrease the odds for worst teams.

has this been confirmed?

I still take the standings as is now as best case cause we would get 2 & 3 which is highly unlikely in the lottery

Imagine drafting Stuztle and Byfield

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[jhutter]

has this been confirmed?

I still take the standings as is now as best case cause we would get 2 & 3 which is highly unlikely in the lottery

Imagine drafting Stuztle and Byfield

I really can't see teams like Boston and Washington having the ability to draft 1OA. Regardless of what the odds would be, there's a chance, and it would look tremendously stupid if Boston were to select Lafreniere.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

I don't think Tankathon does the the math the right way, teams in the 10 to 15 range win a top 3 pick almost every time. and MTL wins it a abnormal amount.

5,6 MIN won 1st
3,5 MTL won 1st
4,5 LA won 1st
3,5 DET won 1st
1,4 SJS won 1st (our SJS pick)
4,5 DET won 1st
2,4 MTL won 1st
5,6 MTL won 1st
5,6 MTL won 1st
1,4 SJS won 1st (our SJS pick

I find the mock draft section of tankathon is more accurate

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Icelevel]

There will still be a lottery, based on point percentage. Only difference is maybe every team will be entered, which will decrease the odds for worst teams.

Where did you hear that from?

 

[MatchesMalone]

I've run the tankathon simulation many times, and the most common results I get are 5, 6 or 1, 5. I figured the 1, 5 result seemed moderate between best-case and worst-case scenarios, so I started from that, and decided to an early Sens mock draft, just for fun. This is assuming no trades, but in reality I expect a number of picks moved. I'm expecting the Sens to follow their M.O. of looking first at who is a safe bet to be a good NHL player who fits their plan, and offensive upside is secondary.

1. Alexis Lafreniere - LS LW - this one is a no-brainer. The best of both worlds, a surefire NHLer by this fall, with superstar upside.

5. Anton Lundell - LS C - as the director of European scouting, Mikko Ruutu will play a key role in this draft. Lundell is the perfect fit for what the Sens are trying to build; good size, intensity, two-way play, clutch performer, NHL-ready.

21. Ty Smilanic - LS C/LW - Dorion has been no stranger to USNTDP, and has had some success there. Smilanic fits the Sens' mould as well, in the vein of a Colin White or Josh Norris: safe bets to be solid two-way top nine forwards, with some upside.

33. William Villeneuve - RS RD - QMJHL again, and the maritime connection. The kind of defenseman the Sens love lately. Smart, decent size, high skilled, well-rounded.

46. Luke Evangelista - RS RW - the London connection with Don Boyd. Smart, responsible, hard-working winger, plays well with skilled players; some upside. Based on the first part of this draft, we're loading up with skill on the left side up front, so this and pick 73 add players who could play complementary roles on the right side in the top nine.

51. Cross Hanas - LS LW - Portland connection with Bobby Strumm. Probably the furthest I have them straying from "The Plan" here. High end raw skill, just lanky and not getting a ton of opportunity on a stacked team. A bit more risk than others, but bigtime upside. They do like picking from renowned development programs, like London, B.U., UND and NTDP.

54. Ruben Rafkin - RS RD, Ruutu would know him from Finland, and we have a strong contingent in the Northeastern States. Like Villeneuve, he's a smart, well-rounded RD with some upside. My personal favorite of the Finnish D in this draft. Not as developed as Viro or Niemela, not as much raw skill as Puutio, but he's a nice balance.

73. Yegor Sokolov - RS RW - the QMJHL and maritime connection again. The AHL team will be feeling the squeeze in the next year or two with all the graduates, so as with Lodin or Kastelic this pick is about replenishing the farm ASAP.

95. Jan Bednar - G - Apparently Petr Havluj is still playing in Czech5 this year, so I'm assuming his scouting duties are specific to Czech leagues. This would be a good time to give him his first area pick if Bednar falls this far. Of course Mann and others with goaltending experience would have to have done the crossover work.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I don't think Tankathon does the the math the right way, teams in the 10 to 15 range win a top 3 pick almost every time. and MTL wins it a abnormal amount.

5,6 MIN won 1st
3,5 MTL won 1st
4,5 LA won 1st
3,5 DET won 1st
1,4 SJS won 1st (our SJS pick)
4,5 DET won 1st
2,4 MTL won 1st
5,6 MTL won 1st
5,6 MTL won 1st
1,4 SJS won 1st (our SJS pick

no it doesnt. remember the actually lottery is a sequence of balls very strange. the tanakthon is a straight draw,

 

[Burrowsaurus]

There will still be a lottery, based on point percentage. Only difference is maybe every team will be entered, which will decrease the odds for worst teams.

doubt every team will enter.

also based on point %, are we still 2 and 3

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Apart from how many teams will be entered, any merit in rolling back the games played instead of doing the lottery based on point percentage?

Carolina played the fewest games at 68, so move everyone to that benchmark and then do the lottery.

 

[Micklebot]

Apart from how many teams will be entered, any merit in rolling back the games played instead of doing the lottery based on point percentage?

Carolina played the fewest games at 68, so move everyone to that benchmark and then do the lottery.

To me it would be a really bad precedent to set; undoing games that were actually played and had actual results seems far worse than pro-rating actual results to put teams on a level playing field. I get that either way somebody will be negatively effected, it just seems like pts % makes the most sense.

 

[Benttheknee]

This is going to be a fascinating draft. Naturally which pick we get determine who we draft, but we can likely guess on priorities.

#1 Draft a Centerman with one of the top two pick.
#2 Draft a Defenseman with one of the top three picks
#3 Draft a 2nd Centerman if he is BPA

Drafting 1st for Ottawa could be problematic if their second pick is 5th or 6th.

 

[MatchesMalone]

This is good.

With some spare time on my hands I've been watching junior league video of Raymond and Stutzle. Even at that age both played a pretty pro-style game. To me Raymond looked more dynamic at 16 in SuperElit than Stutzle did at 16 in DNL. I also realized I've been sleeping on Stutzle's defensive game though. But the way Raymond just zips around inside through traffic, boy does he remind me of Ray Whitney, with hints of Alfredsson and Hossa. Both Raymond and Stutzle could run an NHL powerplay someday - Stutzle from the point, Raymond from the halfwall.

The difference between Stutzle and Raymonid right now is Stutzle has adapted better to the pros. Stutzle continues to look dynamic in DEL. That's a good league - better than Allsvenskan, similar to VHL. A lot of players over there were fringe or cup-of-coffee NHLers, and he is just making them look foolish.

Picking between Stutzle and Byfield is gonna be hella tough for some team that gets tasked with it. I bet Kekkelainen or Yzerman take Stutzle over Byfield if they pick second.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Jake Neighbours, LW, Edmonton (WHL), 6-0, 197, 3-29-2002
Edmonton Oil Kings 2 at Brandon Wheat Kings 5 – February 21, 2020
Future Considerations’ Spring Ranking: 43
Edmonton and Neighbours had their normally effective offensive games slowed in this contest, but despite not getting on the scoresheet, Neighbours was a stand out for me. I love the ability he has to be a force on and off the puck but most importantly he’s a guy who seldom takes a shift off and he puts his thumb print on the game in any scenario. The big issue for me with him is the skating and how it projects as a pro. He is so smart and shifty, but lacks that elite-level of speed that would raise the bar and give him more profound space as a pro than what he can create now at a junior level. His form isn’t awful, a lot of it is just simply working on quickness and getting stronger through his core and legs. While there are concerns, the positives shine through often with him. He’s great in tight spaces and has the vision and puck skills to make some really strong passes and his IQ is at a level which allows him to stand out for making consistently smart, proactive choices in regards to playmaking, positioning offensively or playing defensively. He has the ability to slide into soft spots in coverage to be the smoking gun as a shooter or display the poise to hold off on making rash decisions to allow for the right lane to open. He isn’t a pure dangler, but is good with managing the puck and using some creativity to generate some space for himself. His shot has a touch to it that makes it a threat, but he doesn’t quite have the snipers acumen and will require some fine tuning as he grows to face tougher targets. He was a threat on a few odd man rushes where he foiled the defenders into biting on the shooter and he slid pucks across to a teammate who could not convert and Neighbours also was efficient at the net front during the power play, getting sticks on pucks to generate tips and finding rebounds quickly in a maze of sticks and feet. While showing good tools up front, I was intrigued by his efforts off the puck and he made a few stand out defensive plays, making two mirroring plays to get on his horse on the back check to cover for a defender out of position and tying up a winger with a stick check just as he was about to get the puck and get an odd man chance. Not only was he sound positionally, quick to react and good with his stick to break up passes, but he is a truck on the body and made opponents wince thinking about picking up pucks around him as he was there to throw the body around. He’s a tough match up in all three zones and a gamer making me think that his floor is relatively high, although I do question the high-end ceiling.

Ozzy Wiesblatt, RW, Prince Albert (WHL), 5-10, 183, 3-9-2002
Prince Albert Raiders 4 at Medicine Hat Tigers 3 (OT) – February 5, 2020
Future Considerations’ Spring Ranking: 42
A player identified early in the year for having the tools to build on as a pro, Wiesblatt is a high energy player who is exceptionally light on his feet. He’s got great acceleration and moves well laterally as his offensive skill set accompanying his mobility is nearly as diverse as his range of gears. He’s highly intelligent and I really like the hunger in his game to make him competitive with the puck on his stick and a threat to get open when he’s scoping out ways to support the puck carrier. Lots of proactive reads in his game and more of a team friendly approach than I saw early in the year where he’s using his linemates more to work quick plays and not just trying to take the puck to the house 90 percent of the time. Uncharacteristically, he wasn’t much a shooter in this game but he does have the touch and just needs to find consistency with accuracy and build on the positives. His execution rate isn’t perfect, and his physical immaturity is yet a big part of coughing up some pucks down low, but it’s not for a lack of effort in driving play for his line and trying that lauded outside the box mentality. The big thing for me with him is bringing the competitive nature to continuously battle on 50/50 plays and not show a level or complacency if he doesn’t have the upper hand. He didn’t get much of a look on the penalty kill, but thought there was plentiful pieces to like in his defensive game. He isn’t a simple bystander and has a really good stick that can pluck pucks away with his grasp and there was the good decision making when managing lanes on the back check and supporting his defensive team on the breakout. He would go into the heap routinely to fight for pucks and show the ability to lay a hit but it’s an area that needs work. He’s all about calming play down to make a safe play out of the zone then ratcheting up the intensity as he gets that opportunity to counterattack. He’s the type of a guy who I see five years down the road and 20 pounds heavier as a guy who will play the system perfectly, but also have that ferociousness to bring that break through element on both ends.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

It is still difficult to get a solid read on Stranges. There seems to be some interesting tools and the raw potential to be a high end player but he does have some flaws in his game. Is he worth gambling a pick on and if so how high of a pick?

 

[RAFI BOMB]

From much earlier in the season but there is certainly a lot to like in Rossi's game.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Sens72]

I haven’t tracked it in previous drafts but does it seem most first round projected players are under 6 feet? I’m not saying height is a huge deal but I’ve seen mock drafts and I’ve looked at the heights and it seems 70-80% of players are 6 feet under. Curious if anyone has any information on this.

 

[Asquaredx2]

From much earlier in the season but there is certainly a lot to like in Rossi's game.

My dream scenario is for the Sens to take one of the top 3 forwards with their first lottery pick and Rossi with their second. I was initially reluctant about a 5'9" centre but man does he ever look amazing. He reminds me of Marty St Louis. Superb skating and lower body strength to go along with absolutely elite hockey IQ.

All of these top end of the draft players are super skilled, but ultimately hockey IQ is what separates an Erik Karlsson from, say, a Ryan Murphy. For that reason, I wouldn't be shocked if Rossi ends up being a top 2 player from this draft.

 

[MatchesMalone]

It is still difficult to get a solid read on Stranges. There seems to be some interesting tools and the raw potential to be a high end player but he does have some flaws in his game. Is he worth gambling a pick on and if so how high of a pick?

I've been a big Stranges fan for a while. Good God is he fun to watch. I could watch game footage of him for hours. You could see some gradual growth in his game from when he came into the OHL through the first part of this season. The last game I saw of him was back in January and he looked like a completely different player, but I'm not sure if that's a good thing. He went from always wanting the puck and trying to do too much, to in that game suddenly playing hot potato with the puck. Clearly there had been some communication with Dale Hunter that if he wants to play with good players he needs to share the puck. Interestingly, it was about that time that his offensive output hit a wall. He was ice cold for the last two months. Without having seen any more games, I'm hopeful the lack of offense was a result of him buckling down and trying to play a smart all-around game.

This will be a big test for Hunter. It is easy to get a Marner or Patrick Kane for a year or two and send them off to be NHL stars. This is a challenge. Stranges is such an enigma in that I can't remember a prospect coming along with this level of pure skill who is also this raw. On pure skill alone he rivals Raymond or Stutzle in my opinion, but he just doesn't understand how to play the game the right way. Hunter has 4 years (two left) to tame the wild stallion and make Stranges into an NHL player. If he had gone to any other program besides London (or a couple others) I wouldn't be nearly as hopeful as I am.

After his rough last couple months of the season, I doubt he's a first rounder at this point. I'm guessing he ends up maybe middle of the second round somewhere.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I've been a big Stranges fan for a while. Good God is he fun to watch. I could watch game footage of him for hours. You could see some gradual growth in his game from when he came into the OHL through the first part of this season. The last game I saw of him was back in January and he looked like a completely different player, but I'm not sure if that's a good thing. He went from always wanting the puck and trying to do too much, to in that game suddenly playing hot potato with the puck. Clearly there had been some communication with Dale Hunter that if he wants to play with good players he needs to share the puck. Interestingly, it was about that time that his offensive output hit a wall. He was ice cold for the last two months. Without having seen any more games, I'm hopeful the lack of offense was a result of him buckling down and trying to play a smart all-around game.

This will be a big test for Hunter. It is easy to get a Marner or Patrick Kane for a year or two and send them off to be NHL stars. This is a challenge. Stranges is such an enigma in that I can't remember a prospect coming along with this level of pure skill who is also this raw. On pure skill alone he rivals Raymond or Stutzle in my opinion, but he just doesn't understand how to play the game the right way. Hunter has 4 years (two left) to tame the wild stallion and make Stranges into an NHL player. If he had gone to any other program besides London (or a couple others) I wouldn't be nearly as hopeful as I am.

After his rough last couple months of the season, I doubt he's a first rounder at this point. I'm guessing he ends up maybe middle of the second round somewhere.

Watched him against Ottawa last time they were in town....pretty invisible out there.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I've been a big Stranges fan for a while. Good God is he fun to watch. I could watch game footage of him for hours. You could see some gradual growth in his game from when he came into the OHL through the first part of this season. The last game I saw of him was back in January and he looked like a completely different player, but I'm not sure if that's a good thing. He went from always wanting the puck and trying to do too much, to in that game suddenly playing hot potato with the puck. Clearly there had been some communication with Dale Hunter that if he wants to play with good players he needs to share the puck. Interestingly, it was about that time that his offensive output hit a wall. He was ice cold for the last two months. Without having seen any more games, I'm hopeful the lack of offense was a result of him buckling down and trying to play a smart all-around game.

This will be a big test for Hunter. It is easy to get a Marner or Patrick Kane for a year or two and send them off to be NHL stars. This is a challenge. Stranges is such an enigma in that I can't remember a prospect coming along with this level of pure skill who is also this raw. On pure skill alone he rivals Raymond or Stutzle in my opinion, but he just doesn't understand how to play the game the right way. Hunter has 4 years (two left) to tame the wild stallion and make Stranges into an NHL player. If he had gone to any other program besides London (or a couple others) I wouldn't be nearly as hopeful as I am.

After his rough last couple months of the season, I doubt he's a first rounder at this point. I'm guessing he ends up maybe middle of the second round somewhere.

Sounds like he might be over-managed a bit. Sometimes, you got to let those wild stallions run if you want to get the best out of them.