NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART IV

[ijif]

I haven't seen too much of Mercer outside of World Juniors, but I've really liked what I have seen. I know he's been playing center this year, but where would people rank him compared to other potential right wings in a similar range, Jack Quinn, Noel Gunler, Seth Jarvis?

For me, I would rank them as follows:
Quinn
Gunler
Mercer
Jarvis

 

[Icelevel]

My dream scenario is for the Sens to take one of the top 3 forwards with their first lottery pick and Rossi with their second. I was initially reluctant about a 5'9" centre but man does he ever look amazing. He reminds me of Marty St Louis. Superb skating and lower body strength to go along with absolutely elite hockey IQ.

All of these top end of the draft players are super skilled, but ultimately hockey IQ is what separates an Erik Karlsson from, say, a Ryan Murphy. For that reason, I wouldn't be shocked if Rossi ends up being a top 2 player from this draft.

Agree I could see him going higher than expected. If he drops then someone is likely getting a steal.

 

[Xspyrit]

This is good.

With some spare time on my hands I've been watching junior league video of Raymond and Stutzle. Even at that age both played a pretty pro-style game. To me Raymond looked more dynamic at 16 in SuperElit than Stutzle did at 16 in DNL. I also realized I've been sleeping on Stutzle's defensive game though. But the way Raymond just zips around inside through traffic, boy does he remind me of Ray Whitney, with hints of Alfredsson and Hossa. Both Raymond and Stutzle could run an NHL powerplay someday - Stutzle from the point, Raymond from the halfwall.

The difference between Stutzle and Raymond right now is Stutzle has adapted better to the pros. Stutzle continues to look dynamic in DEL. That's a good league - better than Allsvenskan, similar to VHL. A lot of players over there were fringe or cup-of-coffee NHLers, and he is just making them look foolish.

Picking between Stutzle and Byfield is gonna be hella tough for some team that gets tasked with it. I bet Kekkelainen or Yzerman take Stutzle over Byfield if they pick second.

Thanks for that. The Top-10 is really great but that Top-4 is insane. We're going to be very satisfied unless Dorion Brianlees us

Lafreniere 1st no doubt

But after that, the more I read and watch, the more I get undecided about Byfield vs Stuztle vs Raymond

Seriously, as long as we get one top-4 (and then we'd get #5-6), we're going to kill this draft, particularly if we can trade up with the Isles 1st to get Sanderson/Quinn/Jarvis/etc.. Plus all these seconds (4), could find another gem or two. Our prospect pool is going to be seriously stacked (plus the u-26 with Chabot, Tkachuk, Duclair, White, Brown, Tierney, Paul, Hawryluk, Hogberg)

 

[Burrowsaurus]

For me, I would rank them as follows:
Quinn
Gunler
Mercer
Jarvis

my ranking
gunler
quinn
mercer
jarvis

 

[Burrowsaurus]

next year we will probbably be in the running for brandt clarke, hughes, and lambos so i say focus on forwards this year,

 

[Sens72]

I've started to fall in love with William Wallinder's game. He moves exceptionally well for a 6'3 player and is super hard to knock the puck off of. He does all the right things, the little things scout look for. He is calm and smart with the puck. He never tries to make a play that's not there, makes the simple, but smart play. ] He covers a lot of ice and makes it hard for players to keep possession down low in the DZ. He's ranked as high as the 10-14 range by some people but low as the 2nd round by others. Personally, I would select him with the Islanders pick but there could be another player there that would be hard to resist passing over. The combination of his strength, excellent mobility and a poised game, I can see him flourishing in the NHL.

If I did have to say one negative thing, he's can be somewhat inconsistent with his flashes of brilliance. He has all the talent in the world to be a great two-way defender but sometimes he doesn't put in the effort. I think that's something he needs to mature over the next two years.

Here's a nice clip of him in the Allsvenskan:

 

[OgieO]

i haven't been hanging out in here too much so apologies if this has already been posted, but I want Rossi
Puck possession, passing, defensive awareness, IQ, skating,....points
Would fit in great with the group we have coming up. Great group of course but no one like rossi

I freakin love him. I would be so happy if we get him with our 2nd pick.

 

[MatchesMalone]

For me, I would rank them as follows:
Quinn
Gunler
Mercer
Jarvis

Thanks man.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Sounds like he might be over-managed a bit. Sometimes, you got to let those wild stallions run if you want to get the best out of them.

Yeah but the problem is you couldn't put him with McMichaels or Foudy, because those guys are superstars in the league and they want the puck. I've seen him play with 19 year old NHL draft pick Johnny Gruden, and Gruden hardly has the puck on his stick. But he and Evangelista are ok with it, they're the type to be better away from the puck. Foudy and McMichael want the puck and want to control play. In a way it kinda makes sense for London this year, often going with one line-driver on each line, with McMichaels on the top, Foudy on the second, and Stranges on the third.

Watched him against Ottawa last time they were in town....pretty invisible out there.

Invisible how? Just didn't have the puck a lot? looked lazy? My concern would be that he just started pouting when he still wasn't given opportunities in scoring roles as the season progressed.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Yeah but the problem is you couldn't put him with McMichaels or Foudy, because those guys are superstars in the league and they want the puck. I've seen him play with 19 year old NHL draft pick Johnny Gruden, and Gruden hardly has the puck on his stick. But he and Evangelista are ok with it, they're the type to be better away from the puck. Foudy and McMichael want the puck and want to control play. In a way it kinda makes sense for London this year, often going with one line-driver on each line, with McMichaels on the top, Foudy on the second, and Stranges on the third.



Invisible how? Just didn't have the puck a lot? looked lazy? My concern would be that he just started pouting when he still wasn't given opportunities in scoring roles as the season progressed.

dont want to say he pouted because i dont know for certain. could have been low confidence, due to possible over leashing by a strict london staff that is used to basically OHL excellence, not taking risks. wasnt exactly making himself available for pucks. didnt get a chance to show off that skating style of his. just looked like another player out there.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I freakin love him. I would be so happy if we get him with our 2nd pick.

twas sexy, do you mean second round pick?

 

[OgieO]

twas sexy, do you mean second round pick?

Our 2nd pick, not second round pick.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I've started to fall in love with William Wallinder's game. He moves exceptionally well for a 6'3 player and is super hard to knock the puck off of. He does all the right things, the little things scout look for. He is calm and smart with the puck. He never tries to make a play that's not there, makes the simple, but smart play. ] He covers a lot of ice and makes it hard for players to keep possession down low in the DZ. He's ranked as high as the 10-14 range by some people but low as the 2nd round by others. Personally, I would select him with the Islanders pick but there could be another player there that would be hard to resist passing over. The combination of his strength, excellent mobility and a poised game, I can see him flourishing in the NHL.

If I did have to say one negative thing, he's can be somewhat inconsistent with his flashes of brilliance. He has all the talent in the world to be a great two-way defender but sometimes he doesn't put in the effort. I think that's something he needs to mature over the next two years.

Here's a nice clip of him in the Allsvenskan:

I'd love to acquire another 1st and get him. He could go middle 1st or early 2nd, all over the place i've seen him ranked.

 

[MatchesMalone]

So that Scouch video on Raymond got me thinking I'd like to try some in-depth stat tracking by watching game tape. I'm on self-isolation for two weeks so have more time on my hands than I can imagine what to do with. Anybody have suggestions on what prospects and what stats I should track? Players I'm most interested in are Stutzle, Raymond, Byfield, Holtz, Drysdale, Sanderson, Amirov, Khustnutdinov, Stranges, Mukahamadullin, Holloway, Lundell. Things like zone entries and exits, puck battles, locations of scoring chances, time with possession, disrupted zone exits for forwards, disrupted zone entries for D? I'll be using mostly ProspectShifts and international competition, except for the Russians, for whom there is plenty of league play available on youtube.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I'd love to acquire another 1st and get him. He could go middle 1st or early 2nd, all over the place I've seen him ranked.

It seems like one of those scenarios where "those-in-the-know" have him ranked higher than most. I'm happy to say that I was one of the folks who was way ahead of the curve on recognizing how good Rodion Amirov and Jake Sanderson are. Unfortunately I never got the chance to see much of Jack Quinn or William Wallinder, so I've been way behind on those.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Our 2nd pick, not second round pick.

you want wallinder with like... 6th overall?

nvm i see you were talking about rossi haha.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[jhutter]

Can we please just pick him already?

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Lol I really hope the hurry the ***** up with this draft ranking thing. It's killing me lol

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I wonder if they would still do a draft lottery in this scenario and simply increase the odds of the non playoff teams. If they kept the ratios the same it could possibly work.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I've been a big Stranges fan for a while. Good God is he fun to watch. I could watch game footage of him for hours. You could see some gradual growth in his game from when he came into the OHL through the first part of this season. The last game I saw of him was back in January and he looked like a completely different player, but I'm not sure if that's a good thing. He went from always wanting the puck and trying to do too much, to in that game suddenly playing hot potato with the puck. Clearly there had been some communication with Dale Hunter that if he wants to play with good players he needs to share the puck. Interestingly, it was about that time that his offensive output hit a wall. He was ice cold for the last two months. Without having seen any more games, I'm hopeful the lack of offense was a result of him buckling down and trying to play a smart all-around game.

This will be a big test for Hunter. It is easy to get a Marner or Patrick Kane for a year or two and send them off to be NHL stars. This is a challenge. Stranges is such an enigma in that I can't remember a prospect coming along with this level of pure skill who is also this raw. On pure skill alone he rivals Raymond or Stutzle in my opinion, but he just doesn't understand how to play the game the right way. Hunter has 4 years (two left) to tame the wild stallion and make Stranges into an NHL player. If he had gone to any other program besides London (or a couple others) I wouldn't be nearly as hopeful as I am.

After his rough last couple months of the season, I doubt he's a first rounder at this point. I'm guessing he ends up maybe middle of the second round somewhere.

Yeah there certainly seems to be some raw potential there. I think the challenge is evaluating the risk. From one perspective I look at drafting like investing and as a consequence risk mitigation is an important element. Each pick could theoretically become an NHL player which is valuable both to help the team win and potentially to attain an asset that could be traded in the future. So the idea of an NHL draft pick becoming a complete bust is a risky one as picks and NHL assets are valuable trading chips. Generally speaking I think that favors high floor prospects as getting a regular NHL player is still a valuable thing. The bust rate is still pretty high with picks,and this link provides an overview of that:
NHL Draft Analytics: A Study of NHL Central Scouting - Neutral Zone

According to that link these are the probabilities of a prospect playing 100 games in the NHL by round:

• 2nd round (31.1%)
• 3rd round (27.9%)
• 4th round (18.7%)
• 5th round (14.2%)

Now this was based on data from 1995 to 2005 but there was a more recent article by TSN that had data from 2000 to 2013 and the odds per round seemed comparable if not worse.

So with such a low percentage that each player plays 100 games, does it make sense to decrease the odds by taking higher risk picks or increase the odds by taking lower risk picks? Certainly each pick would have its own independent risk assessment and teams could make that assessment through their scouting but the point still stands that it might be a better strategy to target high floor players and therefore increasing the chances of getting a prospect that eventually plays 100 games in the NHL.

I think this is part of the challenge when evaluating Stranges. He seems like he has some potential but he doesn't clearly have a high floor. Given the amount of picks we have it could make sense to use a pick to draft him, but also given the high bust rate it could make more sense to play it safe.

I think if Stranges falls outside of the 2nd round then it can become a lore more appealing to draft him because the odds for the rounds become a low lower and therefore it is easier to justify taking on the risk.

It might be worth noting that Dorion claimed that him and his scouts believe they can get NHL players in the first 3 rounds of this draft. I would have to find his specific quote but I think it could be revealing. The claim of NHL players is not the same as a claim of stars or elite players. That could suggest that Dorion, Mann and the scouting staff have a preference for prospects that have a high probability of becoming NHL players which would mean that they value high floors in prospects. This seems consistent with their drafting strategy over the last few drafts, the majority of prospects seem like they have a decent chance of carving out NHL roles. I think it is fairly safe to conclude that the Sens management and scouting staff are not big gamblers when it comes to drafting; they don't tend to throw picks at prospects that there are serious question marks about whether they can play in the NHL.

So the Stranges situation is a bit paradoxical. He is a bit of an enigma but there is a question of what his floor can be. Comparatively I could see the Sens being interested in Nikishin who is also an enigma but Nikishin has arguably a high floor. Can Stranges develop into a versatile player who can be moved up and down the lineup? Does he have the right compete level and intensity to fit the identity the organization is going for? But also with so many picks is it worth taking a gamble on a player like him? Maybe he drops into the 3rd round or later and maybe his upside becomes too appealing to pass up on.

 

[ijif]

What do you guys (or girls) think about JL Foudy?

 

[bert]

What do you guys (or girls) think about JL Foudy?

I like him, id love to see them target him with one of the seconds.