NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART IV

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

He had 1 goal and 2 assists tonight so to update below in his last 36 games he has 32 goals and 73 points.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I feel like, after a general consensus top 10 being intact for a large portion of the season, Lundell, Askarov, and, most recently, Perfetti are falling out of that group and blending in with Quinn, Jarvis, Holloway, Sanderson, Zary, etc.

The knocks that I have seen on these guys are mostly that Lundell lacks high end skill, Askarov has flaws in his game + goalie factor, and that Perfetti lacks speed, strength, defensive IQ and compete (while having a top 3-5 offensive skillset). Meanwhile, guys like Jarvis, Holloway, Sanderson and Zary, while not having quite that high-end skill, are well above average in basically every facet of the game (maybe Holloway isn't a well above average skater, but he is quite good for his size).

I guess I am just looking for the insight of those who are more in the know as to how accurate my impressions are/how they see the tiers of the draft. There seems to be a large degree of fluidity still.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I feel like, after a general consensus top 10 being intact for a large portion of the season, Lundell, Askarov, and, most recently, Perfetti are falling out of that group and blending in with Quinn, Jarvis, Holloway, Sanderson, Zary, etc.

The knocks that I have seen on these guys are mostly that Lundell lacks high end skill, Askarov has flaws in his game + goalie factor, and that Perfetti lacks speed, strength, defensive IQ and compete (while having a top 3-5 offensive skillset). Meanwhile, guys like Jarvis, Holloway, Sanderson and Zary, while not having quite that high-end skill, are well above average in basically every facet of the game (maybe Holloway isn't a well above average skater, but he is quite good for his size).

I guess I am just looking for the insight of those who are more in the know as to how accurate my impressions are/how they see the tiers of the draft. There seems to be a large degree of fluidity still.

Where do you see Perfetti falling out of the top 10? If a player lacks compete and puts up 100+ pts in their draft year .. imagine what they do if they try. Perfetti (18 in Jan) has 107 pts (2nd) and 241 shots (9th) on goal in 60 games and lacks compete .. I don't see that.

Lundell has been ranked outside the top 10 here and there all year

 

[BondraTime]

Not sure how Perfetti would be dropping, and I don’t think Askarov has been a legit top 10 guy in a while, silly he ever was.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Where do you see Perfetti falling out of the top 10? If a player lacks compete and puts up 100+ pts in their draft year .. imagine what they do if they try. Perfetti (18 in Jan) has 107 pts (2nd) and 241 shots (9th) on goal in 60 games and lacks compete .. I don't see that.

Lundell has been ranked outside the top 10 here and there all year

I dont think the concerns with Perfetti are with his offensive compete level, rather his compete without the puck. I also am pretty impressed by Perfetti, which is why I'm interested in the views of other people. I am mostly going off reports from my buddy who works in the O. He also likes Perfetti as a top 8 pick but knows some people who don't, and I also just watched a video from Draft Dynasty, who tends to be high on skill players, and he had Perfetti likely outside of his top 10, although he left room for that to change. That said, I didnt word my post exactly as I intended in regards to Perfetti.

Earlier in the season, I saw the draft divided into rough tiers of:

Lafreniere
Byfield
Stutzle/Holtz/Raymond/Rossi/Drysdale/Perfetti/Lundell/Askarov

Then, over time, Stutzle jumped up into a group with Byfield, and Lundell and Askarov fell off and are now pretty firmly in that next tier with the guys I described above; I could feasibly see either of them falling to 15 or so. Perfetti, while still largely ranked in the top 10, seems to me to be ranked in a tier behind those top 7 guys. In other words, it is very rare to see anyone breaching the group of Lafreniere/Byfield/Stutzle/Holtz/Raymond/Rossi/Drysdale, whereas it is relatively common now to see Perfetti passed by at least one of the guys named in my previous post. My real question in regards to Perfetti is: do people still consider him firmly in that top group (beginning behind Lafreniere, or Stutzle, or even Drysdale/Rossi depending on how you view the tiers within the top bit of this draft)?

Not sure how Perfetti would be dropping, and I don’t think Askarov has been a legit top 10 guy in a while, silly he ever was.

Agreed on both counts, although I wouldnt be surprised to see a team take Askarov way too high .

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

If you look at teammate quality, you can argue for Byfield having 3rd most impressive PPG after McDavid and Spezza.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I dont think the concerns with Perfetti are with his offensive compete level, rather his compete without the puck. I also am pretty impressed by Perfetti, which is why I'm interested in the views of other people. I am mostly going off reports from my buddy who works in the O. He also likes Perfetti as a top 8 pick but knows some people who don't, and I also just watched a video from Draft Dynasty, who tends to be high on skill players, and he had Perfetti likely outside of his top 10, although he left room for that to change. That said, I didnt word my post exactly as I intended in regards to Perfetti.

Earlier in the season, I saw the draft divided into rough tiers of:

Lafreniere
Byfield
Stutzle/Holtz/Raymond/Rossi/Drysdale/Perfetti/Lundell/Askarov

Then, over time, Stutzle jumped up into a group with Byfield, and Lundell and Askarov fell off and are now pretty firmly in that next tier with the guys I described above; I could feasibly see either of them falling to 15 or so. Perfetti, while still largely ranked in the top 10, seems to me to be ranked in a tier behind those top 7 guys. In other words, it is very rare to see anyone breaching the group of Lafreniere/Byfield/Stutzle/Holtz/Raymond/Rossi/Drysdale, whereas it is relatively common now to see Perfetti passed by at least one of the guys named in my previous post. My real question in regards to Perfetti is: do people still consider him firmly in that top group (beginning behind Lafreniere, or Stutzle, or even Drysdale/Rossi depending on how you view the tiers within the top bit of this draft)?



Agreed on both counts, although I wouldnt be surprised to see a team take Askarov way too high .

For me its something like (the order in the tiers can change)

Lafreniere

Byfield
Stutzle

Drysdale
Raymond

Rossi
Perfetti
Holtz
Lundell

Sanderson/Quinn/Jarvis sneak in

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

For me its something like (the order in the tiers can change)

Lafreniere

Byfield
Stutzle

Drysdale
Raymond

Rossi
Perfetti
Holtz
Lundell

Sanderson/Quinn/Jarvis sneak in

That's how I see it too. Holtz maybe in the 3rd tier. His performance/contributions in all leagues to date is too good to ignore.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I feel like, after a general consensus top 10 being intact for a large portion of the season, Lundell, Askarov, and, most recently, Perfetti are falling out of that group and blending in with Quinn, Jarvis, Holloway, Sanderson, Zary, etc.

The knocks that I have seen on these guys are mostly that Lundell lacks high end skill, Askarov has flaws in his game + goalie factor, and that Perfetti lacks speed, strength, defensive IQ and compete (while having a top 3-5 offensive skillset). Meanwhile, guys like Jarvis, Holloway, Sanderson and Zary, while not having quite that high-end skill, are well above average in basically every facet of the game (maybe Holloway isn't a well above average skater, but he is quite good for his size).

I guess I am just looking for the insight of those who are more in the know as to how accurate my impressions are/how they see the tiers of the draft. There seems to be a large degree of fluidity still.

I think there is some volatility in the rankings but from what I have seen there is a relatively stable group of names in the top ten (but some volatility in the rankings among them), then a bit of volatility late in the top ten and just outside that where a few players are entering in and a few are falling out. Then there is a ton of volatility in rankings outside the top ten throughout the rest of the draft.

I haven't seen anything that suggests Perfetti will fall outside the top ten. There have been some concerns with his compete level, like that Draft Dynasty guy suggested, but it doesn't seem like a major issue. For example I don't think anyone is comparing his to Arthur Kaliyev in terms of concerns about compete level so it isn't like it is a big red flag. It is also worth noting that Draft Dynasty did his analysis 3 months ago and there has been a lot of talk that after Perfetti was cut from Team Canada that he completely reinvented himself. So it might be worth checking on some people that have seen him recently to see if those criticisms of his compete level still hold true.

Many have argued, including myself, that Askarov shouldn't be taken in the top ten. It is rare that a goalie deserves to be taken that high and in a draft of this quality there is simply too much to pass up on in talent for forwards to take him there. He might still get drafted in the top ten but many will argue that was a mistake.

I saw the Draft Dynasty breakdown on Lundell and he was critical of his skating. Lundell looks a little slow and he doesn't seem to have high end offensive ability. He is a bit of a polarizing figure as some seem incredibly high on him and others, like myself, don't see the reason to get so excited. I don't think you are getting another Barkov or Kakko here, I have heard his upside is more of a Mikko Koivu or Jordan Stall. So there is an argument that while a Koivu/Stall type is valuable that there are better players available.

Of your risers list I think Zary is the only guy that might lack the high end skill. Jarvis seems to have comparable skill to many players currently listed in the top ten. Sanderson looks like he has the potential to be a high end two way d man. Holloway is actually a strong skater and very fast and he has a lot of skill but the question mark about him was his production this season. Holloway has picked up his production recently and many have suggested that he likely deserves to have more points based on his play and Steve Kournianos (The Draft Analyst) claimed that he would put up 40 G 40 A if he was playing in the OHL.

I think what you will likely see is that certain scouts/scouting services and certain fans will have slightly different preferences in skill sets so they could value players differently because of that and people heavily advocate for players that they have seen more of. Some people will watch some prospects and be very high on them but they may not see some other prospects as much so they won't push to draft them as aggressively. It will be difficult to find a strong consensus that certain prospects are objectively and irrefutably better than others so that will lead to some volatility in the rankings.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

That's how I see it too. Holtz maybe in the 3rd tier. His performance/contributions in all leagues to date is too good to ignore.

I haven't seen as much of Holtz but you seem to be very high on him. What would be your pitch on him as to why he should be heavily targeted and why it would be a mistake to pass on him?

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Where do you see Perfetti falling out of the top 10? If a player lacks compete and puts up 100+ pts in their draft year .. imagine what they do if they try. Perfetti (18 in Jan) has 107 pts (2nd) and 241 shots (9th) on goal in 60 games and lacks compete .. I don't see that.

Lundell has been ranked outside the top 10 here and there all year

The claims on Perfetti's lack of compete seem a bit exaggerated; it seemed like there was some concern early in the season but there are claims he reinvented his game after being cut from the WJHC and he really picked it up since then.

But on the general topic of compete level it seems like if a prospect lacks it that they don't ever really develop it as a pro. I can't think of an example at the moment of a player that was criticized for having a lower compete level that eventually developed a high compete level. For example I don't think Arthur Kaliyev will eve develop a high compete level.

But I guess your point could still hold true if it is a minor issue in compete level and if teams feel they push the prospects to up their intensity level.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Well one thing I was considering is that sometimes the definition of a hit only includes when a player is separated from the puck. With the amount of space in the SHL I could see there being something like late hits because as a player goes for a hit that player likely has enough space to get rid of the puck so I dont know if those hits are counted or not.

That is an interesting point about the KHL as I have noticed a fair amount of physicality in the MHL.

That is good to hear that Holfz is upping his intensity. I think it makes sense for this organization to focus on drafting players with high intensity and compete levels. Do you see Holtz loss of puck battles as a lack of effort or a lack of strength and physical maturity?

I would agree with you about the Sens drafting players with high compete. As much of a fan as I am of Holtz, perhaps the Sens will shy away. Holtz isn't the highest intensity player, and I have some questions about how he will adapt to the pace of the NHL. I would say he's one of the highest risk players in the top ten. It's just the other side of the equation is: How often do 40-50 goal scorers come along in the NHL? This could be one. If I'm the Sens, I'd probably still pick him if he fell as far as 7th or 8th. But I dunno, I guess like I said, with all the extra picks the Sens are in a position to get exactly the players they want. I'd be surprised if that was Holtz or Perfetti. With Perfetti it's not a lack of effort, but size and poor risk-management that I think the Sens will shy away from.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I can't see Perfetti falling out of the top ten, although maybe as far as 9 or 10. There's way too much talent there. But the forcing plays, turning over pucks, trying to go one on three. NHL coaches won't tolerate it. Could be a steep developmental curve for him.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I can't see Perfetti falling out of the top ten, although maybe as far as 9 or 10. There's way too much talent there. But the forcing plays, turning over pucks, trying to go one on three. NHL coaches won't tolerate it. Could be a steep developmental curve for him.

Raw talent is there ... All part of maturing and developing as a hockey player. IQ there? Yes Attitude? No issues I've seen Talent? yes I'd say most teams would think they can work with that

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Sensators]

For me its something like (the order in the tiers can change)

Lafreniere

Byfield
Stutzle

Drysdale
Raymond

Rossi
Perfetti
Holtz
Lundell

Sanderson/Quinn/Jarvis sneak in

I agree with this list, the only thing I might change is I would rather have Jarvis in the bottom end of that 3rd tier, I would rather pick him than Lundell because I feel he is more dynamic (albeit smaller).

Does anyone know where you can get time on ice statistics for prospects? I can't find it for CHL leagues.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I agree with this list, the only thing I might change is I would rather have Jarvis in the bottom end of that 3rd tier, I would rather pick him than Lundell because I feel he is more dynamic (albeit smaller).

Does anyone know where you can get time on ice statistics for prospects? I can't find it for CHL leagues.

CHL doesn't make it public. Every top European pro league website has TOI stats. Most have English versions. I know KHL and Liiga do. If any don't, google translate can get you where you want to go.

If you use something like ProspectShifts you can get a quick idea of how much ice time a player plays in a given game, although not an average.

 

[GCK]

The claims on Perfetti's lack of compete seem a bit exaggerated; it seemed like there was some concern early in the season but there are claims he reinvented his game after being cut from the WJHC and he really picked it up since then.

But on the general topic of compete level it seems like if a prospect lacks it that they don't ever really develop it as a pro. I can't think of an example at the moment of a player that was criticized for having a lower compete level that eventually developed a high compete level. For example I don't think Arthur Kaliyev will eve develop a high compete level.

But I guess your point could still hold true if it is a minor issue in compete level and if teams feel they push the prospects to up their intensity level.

Getzlaf was one. It’s why he dropped so far in 03.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Kyle Mandleur LW 6'6 245 lbs OA1 had 2 goals and 2 assists today. He might be worth a late round pick.

He followed up yesterdays performance with a 4 goal game today. His stats are now 44 GP 22 G 16 A 38 PTS. As noted before he had a slower start to the season, splitting his season from 2019 and 2020 his stats are as follows. 2019: 25 GP 5 G 5 A 10 PTS. 2020: 19 GP 17 G 11 A 28 PTS. He now leads his team in goals and is tied for 10th overall in the league for goals.

As a note prior to his draft year he lit up USHS Prep 21 GP 38 G 21 A 59 PTS. He is a big body with some goal scoring ability and might end up as an interesting project pick that can be developed in the NCAA.

 

[BondraTime]

He followed up yesterdays performance with a 4 goal game today. His stats are now 44 GP 22 G 16 A 38 PTS. As noted before he had a slower start to the season, splitting his season from 2019 and 2020 his stats are as follows. 2019: 25 GP 5 G 5 A 10 PTS. 2020: 19 GP 17 G 11 A 28 PTS. He now leads his team in goals and is tied for 10th overall in the league for goals.

As a note prior to his draft year he lit up USHS Prep 21 GP 38 G 21 A 59 PTS. He is a big body with some goal scoring ability and might end up as an interesting project pick that can be developed in the NCAA.

Don't think he has a chance of being looked at in the draft

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Don't think he has a chance of being looked at in the draft

Yeah maybe not. It kind of depends how the draft unfolds. I saw him more as a 7th rounder. Sometimes a lot of notable players end up going a lot earlier than expected and then it can be a real question of who to draft with late picks. Even if he doesn't get drafted he still has a chance to try to establish himself in the NCAA and try to grow his reputation from there. I have kept my eye on the undrafted NCAA players and there are a number of bigger players that are performing well that maybe should have been drafted. Maybe Mandleur will have to go that route.

 

[RAFI BOMB]