NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART IV

[RAFI BOMB]

 

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A tiny but skilled over age prospect.

 

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He finished the game with 1 goal and 2 assists. His stats are now 51 GP 46 G 46 A 92 PTS. Even though this is his 3rd year of draft eligibility he is still a 6'4 231 lbs power winger that plays a high skilled exciting style. He could end up being a solid middle round pick.

 

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[MatchesMalone]

I think there is some volatility in the rankings but from what I have seen there is a relatively stable group of names in the top ten (but some volatility in the rankings among them), then a bit of volatility late in the top ten and just outside that where a few players are entering in and a few are falling out. Then there is a ton of volatility in rankings outside the top ten throughout the rest of the draft.

I haven't seen anything that suggests Perfetti will fall outside the top ten. There have been some concerns with his compete level, like that Draft Dynasty guy suggested, but it doesn't seem like a major issue. For example I don't think anyone is comparing his to Arthur Kaliyev in terms of concerns about compete level so it isn't like it is a big red flag. It is also worth noting that Draft Dynasty did his analysis 3 months ago and there has been a lot of talk that after Perfetti was cut from Team Canada that he completely reinvented himself. So it might be worth checking on some people that have seen him recently to see if those criticisms of his compete level still hold true.

Many have argued, including myself, that Askarov shouldn't be taken in the top ten. It is rare that a goalie deserves to be taken that high and in a draft of this quality there is simply too much to pass up on in talent for forwards to take him there. He might still get drafted in the top ten but many will argue that was a mistake.

I saw the Draft Dynasty breakdown on Lundell and he was critical of his skating. Lundell looks a little slow and he doesn't seem to have high end offensive ability. He is a bit of a polarizing figure as some seem incredibly high on him and others, like myself, don't see the reason to get so excited. I don't think you are getting another Barkov or Kakko here, I have heard his upside is more of a Mikko Koivu or Jordan Stall. So there is an argument that while a Koivu/Stall type is valuable that there are better players available.

Of your risers list I think Zary is the only guy that might lack the high end skill. Jarvis seems to have comparable skill to many players currently listed in the top ten. Sanderson looks like he has the potential to be a high end two way d man. Holloway is actually a strong skater and very fast and he has a lot of skill but the question mark about him was his production this season. Holloway has picked up his production recently and many have suggested that he likely deserves to have more points based on his play and Steve Kournianos (The Draft Analyst) claimed that he would put up 40 G 40 A if he was playing in the OHL.

I think what you will likely see is that certain scouts/scouting services and certain fans will have slightly different preferences in skill sets so they could value players differently because of that and people heavily advocate for players that they have seen more of. Some people will watch some prospects and be very high on them but they may not see some other prospects as much so they won't push to draft them as aggressively. It will be difficult to find a strong consensus that certain prospects are objectively and irrefutably better than others so that will lead to some volatility in the rankings.

Good post. In terms of fans and I think also scouting services, I feel like some are more prone to put themselves in the shoes of scouts, and some of GMs. I'm thinking moslty of Lundell here. The fellow you were replying to said Lundell had fell firmly out of the tier with Perfetti/Rossi/Holtz. I don't think that's the case at all. Like you said about the volatility in the top ten, I could easily see folks still arguing between Holtz, Perfetti, Rossi and Lundell ten years from now.

Eric Staal (2nd), Mikko Koivu (6th), Anze Kopitar (11th), Jordan Staal (2nd), Jonathan Toews (3rd), Sean Couturier (8th), Elias Lindholm (5th) Bo Horvat (9th), Nolan Patrick (2nd). These are some players who were similarly considered prospects to Lundell this year. If we want to be pessimistic we could include Colin Wilson, Tyson Jost and Cody Hodgson, and some others. A couple of those picks proved to be too high, and considering some of the quality in this draft, I wouldn't take Lundell second, but I think I'd be happy with the Sens taking him as high as 5th. From a scouting perspective, there are fans who will make the argument that even without elite offensive upside, if he ends up like a Toews or Couturier that could be just as valuable as the best offensive players in the draft. Just like with Mark Stone or Ryan O'Reilly, who also had question marks around their skating, scouts are raving about Lundell's hockey sense, compete and other intangibles. And a big part of the reason that first group of players I mentioned went as high as they did, even Nolan Patrick and Jordan Staal, is more from a GM's perspective than a scout's. They were all very safe picks to be at least solid second line centers who were NHL-ready immediately or close to it, and were impact players in very short order. These attributes are very valuable to GMs for rebuilding teams who may be on a short leash and are under pressure to turn things around ASAP.

To me Perfetti is the other end of the spectrum in that regard. I'd be shocked if he makes the NHL next year, and perhaps the team that drafts him rips off the band-aid at 19, but if I were to guess, I'd say he needs a full year in AHL to learn how to be a pro before making the jump, which means two years of junior to even get to that point. Then maybe he has an impressive rookie season as the coach gives him some leash in a sheltered role, but then a sophomore slump as teams start to gameplan him, and then another couple years to figure it all out and find that balance. So you're probably looking at six plus years before you get something resembling what your scouts are telling you he could be in the NHL.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I haven't seen as much of Holtz but you seem to be very high on him. What would be your pitch on him as to why he should be heavily targeted and why it would be a mistake to pass on him?

I would agree with you about the Sens drafting players with high compete. As much of a fan as I am of Holtz, perhaps the Sens will shy away. Holtz isn't the highest intensity player, and I have some questions about how he will adapt to the pace of the NHL. I would say he's one of the highest risk players in the top ten. It's just the other side of the equation is: How often do 40-50 goal scorers come along in the NHL? This could be one. If I'm the Sens, I'd probably still pick him if he fell as far as 7th or 8th. But I dunno, I guess like I said, with all the extra picks the Sens are in a position to get exactly the players they want. I'd be surprised if that was Holtz or Perfetti. With Perfetti it's not a lack of effort, but size and poor risk-management that I think the Sens will shy away from.

I agree he is not intense, and he's more cerebral but the guy is effective as hell, it almost part of his game plan. He is unbelievable at finding quiet ice or reading the play and knowing where to be to get that one chance to shoot and score. He is not a one trick pony where he needs a lot of space to rip it (normally thats the red flag because its bigger ice and won't have that much time in the NHL). He also has good speed, and he has excellent one touch passes and creativity with the puck. He doesn't just rip it when he gets the chance, he shoots it when he realizes it's the best opportunity to score. He can easily make really good passes in tight and make great passes to find his line-mates. He's also super effective and what he does and is quite clutch, every big game I've watched he has been noticeable.

I also think in the past 25 years or something only 2-3 guys have had better PPGs as u18 in SHL Dahlin, Fiala and Robert Nilsson.

I would be hesitant to pick this guy without having already picked an excellent puck carrier and handler though. That is what would bring out the best in Holtz.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I agree he is not intense, and he's more cerebral but the guy is effective as hell, it almost part of his game plan. He is unbelievable at finding quiet ice or reading the play and knowing where to be to get that one chance to shoot and score. He is not a one trick pony where he needs a lot of space to rip it (normally thats the red flag because its bigger ice and won't have that much time in the NHL). He also has good speed, and he has excellent one touch passes and creativity with the puck. He doesn't just rip it when he gets the chance, he shoots it when he realizes it's the best opportunity to score. He can easily make really good passes in tight and make great passes to find his line-mates. He's also super effective and what he does and is quite clutch, every big game I've watched he has been noticeable.

I also think in the past 25 years or something only 2-3 guys have had better PPGs as u18 in SHL Dahlin, Fiala and Robert Nilsson.

I would be hesitant to pick this guy without having already picked an excellent puck carrier and handler though. That is what would bring out the best in Holtz.

I'm with you here, one hunnah. Is it better to chase the puck or let it come to you? I could gush about Holtz with you all day. My favorite thing is how he hides in coverage. He puts himself in positions where it looks like he's covered, but he can easily slip into a couple different passing lanes, and he's dangerous from all over the offensive zone from the top of the faceoff circles in. Defense and tendies tend to bite on his fake shot and he knows it, and he likes to exploit that to create time and space for his teammates. But with the Sens' emphasis one compete and work ethic, they might shy away from him.

 

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Very interesting link embedded in this tweet. You can adjust the settings to include all (or specific) leagues for 2020 draft eligible prospects.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Is Quinn going top 10 now?

 

[MatchesMalone]

Frölunda SuperElit got smacked 7-3 today but Raymond had 2+1. He's now up to 4+4 in his last 3 games.

I wonder if Raymond and Holtz will go to U18s again this year. With Grans, Andrae, Wallinder, Eklund, Nybeck, Niederbach, Torgersson, that Sweden team could go for two in a row.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Raymond is so beast. Really hoping for a top 4 pick.

 

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[FolignoQuantumLeap]

A RW from Frolunda, eh? Yes. Yes, please.

 

[Super Cake]

I really really really really really really really really really really want the Sens to draft Lafrenière.

Please hockey gods.

 

[Icelevel]

I really really really really really really really really really really want the Sens to draft Lafrenière.

Please hockey gods.

It will happen. Don’t worry

 

[Micklebot]

So... in terms of players to keep an eye on;

first two picks:
Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond, Drysdale, Holtz, Rossi, Perfetti, Lundell

NYI pick (depending on if they miss the playoffs or not makes this a big range:
Amirov, Zary, Quinn, Jarvis, Gunler, Mysak, Bourque, Walinder, Sanderson Schnieder...

If Askarov is there for the NYI pick, do we take him? I had writes him off as not worthy of one of ours or SJ's picks, but too good to be available for the NYI pick, but I think he could slide to 15th, so do we do it?

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

I am taking Quinn with the Isles pick.

 

[Daffy]

I am taking Quinn with the Isles pick.

Have to be the Sharks pick unless we move up with Isles pick.

 

[Raze The Stray]

I am taking Quinn with the Isles pick.

That would be the exact second a celebratory bender began.

 

[Micklebot]

Have to be the Sharks pick unless we move up with Isles pick.

NYI pick is currently 15th with another 4 teams in striking range, I think the top 8 are pretty set, so could 6 more guys go ahead of him out of Lundell, Holloway, Zary, Askarov, Mercer, Sanderson, Gunler, or Amirov? Or do you thing Quinn's done enough to move into the mix with the likes of Dysdale Rossi, Perfetti, Holtz or Raymond?

 

[Sweatred]

NYI pick is currently 15th with another 4 teams in striking range, I think the top 8 are pretty set, so could 6 more guys go ahead of him out of Lundell, Holloway, Zary, Askarov, Mercer, Sanderson, Gunler, or Amirov? Or do you thing Quinn's done enough to move into the mix with the likes of Dysdale Rossi, Perfetti, Holtz or Raymond?

No - more age bias against Quinn.