Surprised both have Holtz in the top 4 and Raymond 9th. I haven't been following either all that close, but thought Raymond was seen as the higher upside player. I guess him struggling to produce in the SHL and Holtz doing fairly well has flipped things?
From my understanding Raymond was struggling in the SHL and was recently sent back to SuperElit. It seems like he was making some mistakes, for example Steve Kounianous (The Draft Analyst) had a recent post where he claimed Raymond only play 4:33 and was caught cherry picking on a play that lead to the opposition scoring and that it didn't seem like he got a shift after that. Holtz has seemed to adapt to the SHL better and has earned more trust with the coaches. Raymond still has a ton of upside but there might be aspects of his defensive game that he will need to improve. It does sound like he could fall in the draft. But there is still a lot to like about him.
Hopefully I can help clarify some of this. I've seen Holtz and Raymond play more than I've seen anyone in the draft, and have watched their development from last year's Hlinkas through multiple SHL games over the course of the season. I've seen them on a line together maybe eight games, and then individually about as many, most of those in the SHL this year.
First thing I'll point out is Frolunda was a top two team early in the season, but now is in danger of falling out of the top four and missing out on a first round bye. So they're past the point of developing players, they need to win games.
Second thing to point out, despite the play Kournianos mentioned, Raymond is a phenomenal 200 foot player. I was watching that game too and was caught off guard; it was a highly uncharacteristic mistake for him. I've very rarely even seen him catch a minus at any level. At Hlinkas and U18s last year, Raymond was a staple on Sweden's PK. Holtz didn't PK at all. Holtz is actually the one who has issues defensively. Raymond is night and day a better 200 foot player, and I don't think any scout would question that.
To fully grasp what has been going on this year we need to be clear about their playing styles and physical development. I'll try not to go too long but some detail is necessary. Holtz is at his best offensively away from the puck, reading off of his teammates, getting into scoring positions. Even in junior he was never the first guy into a puck battle. He's been a good fit on Djurgården's second and third lines and powerplay, because he plays with other skilled players and doesn't have to do too much with he puck, but just work his magic finding soft spots in the high slot, and then do what he does best.
Also notice all the 2020 prospectd doing well in pro leagues - Stützle, Lundell, Holtz - are 180 lbs+, and Holtz and Stützle's playing styles aren't particularly dependent on size and strength. None of which can be said for Raymond.
At the junior level, he always had the puck. His combination of elite hockey sense and tenacity means he was constantly forcing turnovers (and continues to at the pro level), and once he had the puck he loved to carry it and make plays. He and Holtz played on a line and PP together at international competition, and everything ran through Raymond.
Raymond also plays a pretty physical game. Without the puck he goes hard to the corners and the front of the net, battles for the puck or for position. With the puck he loves to drive the slot, and when forced wide in junior he could power through if he was partially cut off along the boards. He's 165 lbs. Of course he's not able to play his game to it's full potential in the SHL. Partially cut off is all it takes, as adult professional athletes can angle him out with just one arm.
For the first half of the season, Raymond was played on the fourth line in a checking/energy role. He was never counted on to carry the puck or provide offense, but he saddled up and did what was asked of him: played defense, worked hard, got the puck deep, didn't take any risks. After World Juniors he started to try occasionally to contribute more offense, holding on to the puck, challenging defenders, making plays toward the net. He had some success but it will take time and reps to find that balance at the pro level between playing his dependable 200 foot game and making plays offensively. He's made a couple bad mistakes trying to create offense, and Frolunda can't afford those mistakes from a young player right now.
Raymond walked this line splendidly at U18s last year. Against bigger, stronger opponents like Canada, he picked his spots brilliantly. Their line would go long stretches without much for zone time or chances, but they'd hang around and then suddenly Raymond would work his magic and create something out of nothing, and usually Holtz would bury it.
To me, when you look at all of the evidence in its totality, everything is explained and Raymond is a top three or four prospect for the draft. But I can see why someone would still be hesitant: is he ever going to be able to get strong enough to play his style in the NHL, while not gaining too much bulk that he loses his quickness? It's the one legitimate concern that I can see with him, besides simply the time commitment.
(imo of course)
