GDT: 2020 Free Agency Part II: Embrace the Grind

[Northern Avs Fan]

Makar can earn upto 2.5m in bonuses, so can Byram. Timmins doesn't have any, but Kaut and Bowers have a 150-425k each. Makar will get some, just a matter of how much (I'll argue the full 2.5 is likely). If Byram makes the team, he will get some too.

Using your numbers at 21m for Landy, Makar and a goalie. That is 76.1m wrapped up with 8F-5D-2G. Add in Kaut, Bowers, Byram, LOC, Newhook and Timmins. Assuming Timmins gets 1m on an extension, Byram slides another season, and Newhook gets 925k base. We move up to 12F-7D-2G... close enough to full roster (short 2 available slots) with another 5.33m. So adding in 26.3m to the 55.116 the Avs currently have leaves them with less than 100k in room. Basically any bonus overage causes problems. If Byram doesn't slide again that cuts in 1/3. If Timmins is solid next season, becomes a mainstay, and earns $2m it is a problem. No matter which way you slice it, a contract has to go. I think the Avs clearly have their sights on it being Graves.

They’ll be losing someone in expansion so I don’t think it’s a major concern. Like you mentioned, I think Graves is probably going to Seattle. If they fall in love with the D core, maybe they package a mid-round pick with someone like Donskoi/Compher to go to Seattle.

Basically I think it means Saad is a one-year rental. If they want to keep Saad, they’ll need to shake things up a bit.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Yhea Joe will have to juggle for next year as well.

To fit, they'll have to lose a contract to Seatle, let go of Saad (and Cole, PEB and Calvert) and fill the roster with our ELCs.

That means that baseline expectation is no Saad next year, no 3C upgrade and only minimal upgarde in net (like $5M goalie - Grubie or other).

But then you can work with that baseline to improve, by trading Donskoi and/or Compher and/or Graves (whichever don't go to Seatle) and replace them with Cup-hunting-vets-in-Covid-era on $1Mish contracts. To create space for maybe a 3C or resign Saad.

Bottom line is what Henchman said earlier - this year is probably the best Team we'll have for all of the window. After that, it will all depend on how well/rapidly Byram and Newhook developp.

 

[PAZ]

There’s enough money coming off the books to allow extensions for Landeskog/Makar/Grubauer. In fact I think they could even bring back a Matt Calvert for example who will not be getting 2M on his next contract in this market.

Hiwever there won’t be any space for any upgrades like we’re used to seeing each year. The upgrades are hoping for growth from Makar/Girard/Byram/Timmins and hopeful impacts from internal additions like Kaut/Bowers/Newhook. It’s a lot of hope but with our cap space it’s all we can do. I think that’s a big part of this Toews acquisition. It’s high end insurance. Very high end actually.

I think we'll see Joe trying to re-tool the bottom 6 in the next offseason to try and fill that #3C unless Jost or Compher cement themselves (lul). We have too many players with term that can slot into the 3rd line wing position (Donskoi, Nuke, Compher, Kaut).

 

[henchman21]

They’ll be losing someone in expansion so I don’t think it’s a major concern. Like you mentioned, I think Graves is probably going to Seattle. If they fall in love with the D core, maybe they package a mid-round pick with someone like Donskoi/Compher to go to Seattle.

Basically I think it means Saad is a one-year rental. If they want to keep Saad, they’ll need to shake things up a bit.

To me, the risk with Seattle is them wanting to go for Jost or a different player this is minimally paid. Avs may have to pay to get Seattle to take on somebody different to get rid of a contract. Or if they don't and nobody else will take on salary, a buyout may have to happen. Certainly not an impossible thing to manage, especially if they can get Makar signed before Hughes.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[PAZ]

To me, the risk with Seattle is them wanting to go for Jost or a different player this is minimally paid. Avs may have to pay to get Seattle to take on somebody different to get rid of a contract. Or if they don't and nobody else will take on salary, a buyout may have to happen. Certainly not an impossible thing to manage, especially if they can get Makar signed before Hughes.

If Seattle goes for a cheaper option like Jost, I think we're still in a decent position. Our most expendable assets will all be 26-29 (Donskoi, Compher, Graves) with little term left and I don't think we should any trouble moving them. 30 teams are losing a player and some will need to fill that hole. We may not get anything for them, but there should be decent interest for the trio if we made them available for basically free.

 

[Balthazar]

Avs may have to pay to get Seattle to take on somebody different to get rid of a contract.

Crazy to think that we got there this fast.

Also there's close to zero chance that we can keep Saad after this year.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

To me, the risk with Seattle is them wanting to go for Jost or a different player this is minimally paid. Avs may have to pay to get Seattle to take on somebody different to get rid of a contract. Or if they don't and nobody else will take on salary, a buyout may have to happen. Certainly not an impossible thing to manage, especially if they can get Makar signed before Hughes.

True.

If I’m Seattle, I want Graves. Unless he shits the bed this year, getting a guy who can play in your top-4 who will only be 26-years old would be pretty nice for an expansion team.

 

[MaKarter]

Crazy to think that we got there this fast.

Also there's close to zero chance that we can keep Saad after this year.

There is the .001% chance that we decide to let Landeskog walk and re-sign Saad and make him the C.

I hear Saad loves the game, he'd be a great C.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Ya I dunno where we're coming up with cap space to do much of anything moving forward.

We are suuuuuuuper tight on space essentially from today onward for the next 5+ years really.

Good problem to have, it's a true sign of this team being a legit top tier contender and it comes with the territory of being this good.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

The Avs are pretty loaded for next season. Definitely a top-3 roster talent-wise in the league. They don’t really need to add anyone else.

Next year they probably loose Saad. They’ll be banking on Newhook, or Kaut giving them 20 goals. Overall though, they’re well set up to keep the core intact long term, which is exciting.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

If I were a betting man I would bet on Sakic ending up on top when it comes to Jost. Either Jost will finally start breaking out and Sakic will look like a genius again for not giving up on him, or he will look great again for getting more in a Jost trade than most people on here think he is worth, or a combination of both.

 

[Deas]

Your team is filthy in every way, with good cap structure to be great for many years. And that's before Byram and Newhook (whose production in relation to age in the NCAA by many is overlooked). Sighs deeply. Over and out. /Pens fan

 

[Islay1989]

We will really need the kids to start contributing real soon. Can't remain a contender without prospects coming in to fill out lower pairings and bottom 9 after your big guns get their first full UFA deal.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Crazy to think that we got there this fast.

Also there's close to zero chance that we can keep Saad after this year.

That’s what a some of us have been saying. Lots of teams are in their window before they realize it and then it’s over. Having this 10 year window is in no way realistic unless our drafting and developing improves 200% over the next couple years.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If I were a betting man I would bet on Sakic ending up on top when it comes to Jost. Either Jost will finally start breaking out and Sakic will look like a genius again for not giving up on him, or he will look great again for getting more in a Jost trade than most people on here think he is worth, or a combination of both.

Everything Sakic has touched theadt 36 months seems to have turned into gold so it's hard to bet against him for sure.


But I do have a really hard time seeing the Jost situation working out in our favor. I think we missed our window on a trade for solid value with him, and I dont see him taking steps to justify keeping him beyond that window of trade.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Now that the plan has come together this offseason I’m much happier with Toews and Saad, instead of Hall.

You get one year of Saad for a run this season and four years of Toews. Toews is two years younger than Hall and imo will age better throughout a medium/long term contract.

A lesser GM would have gone for the high profile splash signing to go ‘all in’. This approach is still going all in, but in a much more sustainable manner.

 

[Balthazar]

Meanwhile...

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[themelkman]

Interested to hear what the feel on Landeskog is in here. Does it seem like a sure thing he would resign? How much would he ask for

 

[Foppa2118]

Interested to hear what the feel on Landeskog is in here. Does it seem like a sure thing he would resign? How much would he ask for

Pretty close to a sure thing. Sakic has said they have a great relationship and they're not worried about getting it done.

My guess is he'll cost between $7-8M depending on the term. For the Avs. Not sure about other teams, but it's very unlikely he signs elsewhere.

 

[henchman21]

Interested to hear what the feel on Landeskog is in here. Does it seem like a sure thing he would resign? How much would he ask for

Yeah, absolute sure thing. He's likely getting a deal between 6-8 years with 6 or 7 being much more likely than 8. Open market he's an 8+m player. I can see him giving a discount to the Avs to stay and he's made a good amount of money already... but I don't see it under 7m. So somewhere between 7-8m per for 6 years. Could be at the bottom end of that with clauses and the right structure (IE avoiding the escrow hits).

 

[The Kingslayer]

Ya I dunno where we're coming up with cap space to do much of anything moving forward.

We are suuuuuuuper tight on space essentially from today onward for the next 5+ years really.

Good problem to have, it's a true sign of this team being a legit top tier contender and it comes with the territory of being this good.

Theres a Kyle Dubas joke to be made here.

 

[Ceremony]

Interested to hear what the feel on Landeskog is in here. Does it seem like a sure thing he would resign? How much would he ask for

I covered this recently in this very thread: GDT: - 2020 Free Agency Part II: Embrace the Grind

 

[Balthazar]

Yeah, absolute sure thing. He's likely getting a deal between 6-8 years with 6 or 7 being much more likely than 8.

I'm expecting 7.5M X 7.