GDT: 2020 Free Agency Part II: Embrace the Grind

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[Hasbro]

That $6m doesn't include Toews, a 13th forward, or 7D. Once you add the 13th forward and 7D at ~$800k a piece you're suddenly down to ~$4.4m to sign Toews and hopefully have a little bit of breathing room for cap accrual to account for Makar's bonus.

And you want to save some money that will be worth 4 times at the deadline.

 

[Gatorbait19]

If Toews signs for $4m AAV we'll only have ~$273k in capspace with a 22 man roster. So any further signing would need to be on close to league minimum and would effectively bump whoever is the 13th forward (eg. O'Connor/Kaut) down to the AHL (and possibly bump Jost/Bellemare from 12th to 13th forward)

Oh no that might Jost out of the lineup?!?

But in all seriousness - what I’m most curious about is how much cap space we’ll have to save to add a 1-2 FAs mid season for the Vet min, or close to it.

 

[Richard88]

Oh no that might Jost out of the lineup?!?

But in all seriousness - what I’m most curious about is how much cap space we’ll have to save to add a 1-2 FAs mid season for the Vet min, or close to it.

Until we know when the season will start, how long it will be, and when the deadline is, it will be impossible to figure out how much unused capspace we need to have to enable us to add a $700k player at the deadline. I'd guess that it would be somewhere around $250k though.

 

[Foppa2118]

More like Melnyk likes that they could get him for $2.8M, and then trade him in the final year before they have to pay him $4.2M.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Gotta keep in mind the potentiel bonus carry over too. That could be a really annoying thorn next year if not managed properly this year.

 

[tucker3434]

Edit: never mind. I misunderstood the cap rule.

 

[henchman21]

With Toews now signed, Avs have 26.4m in cap space in 21-22 for 8-9 players including Landy, Makar, and a starting goalie.

 

[The Abusement Park]

With Toews now signed, Avs have 26.4m in cap space in 21-22 for 8-9 players including Landy, Makar, and a starting goalie.

Oof.

 

[RockyMtnRedhawk]

Oof.

Kaut, Bowers, LOC, Byram, and Timmins will all be at < 1M. That leaves around 21-22M for Landy, Makar, and a goalie. Plus, gotta imagine that a decent size contract would be going to Seattle (JTC, Graves, Bura?). Should be plenty of room, and there's plenty of time to move money around.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Kaut, Bowers, LOC, Byram, and Timmins will all be at < 1M. That leaves around 21-22M for Landy, Makar, and a goalie. Plus, gotta imagine that a decent size contract would be going to Seattle (JTC, Graves, Bura?). Should be plenty of room, and there's plenty of time to move money around.

I mean Landy, Makar, and a goalie could very feasibly be ~22mil.

 

[henchman21]

Kaut, Bowers, LOC, Byram, and Timmins will all be at < 1M. That leaves around 21-22M for Landy, Makar, and a goalie. Plus, gotta imagine that a decent size contract would be going to Seattle (JTC, Graves, Bura?). Should be plenty of room, and there's plenty of time to move money around.

It isn't unworkable, but it is tight. Landy, Makar and goalie is going to fall somewhere between 19-24m with that 21-22 being the most likely. Assuming 21, that is ~5m for ~7 spots assuming there is no bonus carry over. Those players above account for ~4.3 (if Byram slides) and not taking into account any bonuses. Down to 700k-1m for 2 more players. A contract needs to go next offseason.

This is exactly why people who were saying the Avs were swimming in cap space this summer were wrong. There was room for one year to add, but after that only moderate moves.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Galchenyuk is going to be our Yakupov/Nuke addition isn’t he?

 

[henchman21]

Galchenyuk is going to be our Yakupov/Nuke addition isn’t he?

I could see it, but I think he's going to New Jersey.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Galchenyuk is going to be our Yakupov/Nuke addition isn’t he?

Put him at LW next to Mack so Landy can take his rightful spot on the 3rd line

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Put him at LW next to Mack so Landy can take his rightful spot on the 3rd line

Wise shots at Pronman never get old.

 

[Freaky Styley]

With Toews now signed, Avs have 26.4m in cap space in 21-22 for 8-9 players including Landy, Makar, and a starting goalie.

Is this without factoring in their current contracts? I.e. Landy will really only command a ~2M raise, Gru likewise, etc.

I'm guessing it's with them off the books though. Makar gets 8M, Landeskog gets 7M, goalie gets 5M. 5 ELCs = 5M. Definitely doable.

Especially with expansion taking at least and extr $3M off. I agree that our cap is tighter than people think but it's definitely not an issue until Mack's contract is up.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

With Toews now signed, Avs have 26.4m in cap space in 21-22 for 8-9 players including Landy, Makar, and a starting goalie.

I wouldn’t worry too much.

9 for Makar.
7.5 for Landy
4.5 for goaltender

That leaves them with 5.4 million to sort out the rest of the roster. Keep in mind that there will be 3-5 ELC’s that will take up very little space.

Most of Newhook, Bowers, Timmins, Byram, LOC, and Kaut will be either already on the team, or ready to make the jump next season.

They’ll be scraping the edge of the cap, but I don’t expect it to be a huge issue.

 

[Islay1989]

The plan is to make Gabe a 3rd liner. He'll just be a 3rd line C not 3rd line winger.

 

[Papa Francouz]

The plan is to make Gabe a 3rd liner. He'll just be a 3rd line C not 3rd line winger.

Clever way to solve the 3C problem. Although his next contract might be a bit of an overpayment for a 3C

 

[henchman21]

Is this without factoring in their current contracts? I.e. Landy will really only command a ~2M raise, Gru likewise, etc.

That is just what they are committed to, so doesn't include Landy, Grubs, Makar, etc. The ranges on those players vary, but assuming Landy is between 7-8, Makar is between 8-10 (depends on who resets the market and when), and a starting goalie is between 5-6... you have 20-24 right there. The sooner they can get Makar to sign, the better as it keeps Hughes from resetting the market (he's getting over 9). Landy could force the Avs hand a bit and would be in demand in many markets, but a 'discount' is 7m. Any solid starting goalie is going to cost at least $5m... so if Grubs is that guy he's probably closer to 6 than 5, but in the range. If the Avs want to upgrade 6-7.

 

[henchman21]

I wouldn’t worry too much.

9 for Makar.
7.5 for Landy
4.5 for goaltender

That leaves them with 5.4 million to sort out the rest of the roster. Keep in mind that there will be 3-5 ELC’s that will take up very little space.

Most of Newhook, Bowers, Timmins, Byram, LOC, and Kaut will be either already on the team, or ready to make the jump next season.

They’ll be scraping the edge of the cap, but I don’t expect it to be a huge issue.

*not accounting for any bonus overage

The plan is to make Gabe a 3rd liner. He'll just be a 3rd line C not 3rd line winger.

I could see Landy stepping into the #2C role for a season after Kadri becomes a free agent.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

*not accounting for any bonus overage



I could see Landy stepping into the #2C role for a season after Kadri becomes a free agent.

How much does that add though? A couple million? They still have enough to sign a couple 4th liners if they need too, to fill out the roster.

The team is pretty much set for next season if you factor in all the young guys pushing for roster spots. There might be a hole, or two to fill, but it won’t cost a ton.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

There’s enough money coming off the books to allow extensions for Landeskog/Makar/Grubauer. In fact I think they could even bring back a Matt Calvert for example who will not be getting 2M on his next contract in this market.

Hiwever there won’t be any space for any upgrades like we’re used to seeing each year. The upgrades are hoping for growth from Makar/Girard/Byram/Timmins and hopeful impacts from internal additions like Kaut/Bowers/Newhook. It’s a lot of hope but with our cap space it’s all we can do. I think that’s a big part of this Toews acquisition. It’s high end insurance. Very high end actually.

 

[henchman21]

How much does that add though? A couple million? They still have enough to sign a couple 4th liners if they need too, to fill out the roster.

The team is pretty much set for next season if you factor in all the young guys pushing for roster spots. There might be a hole, or two to fill, but it won’t cost a ton.

Makar can earn upto 2.5m in bonuses, so can Byram. Timmins doesn't have any, but Kaut and Bowers have a 150-425k each. Makar will get some, just a matter of how much (I'll argue the full 2.5 is likely). If Byram makes the team, he will get some too.

Using your numbers at 21m for Landy, Makar and a goalie. That is 76.1m wrapped up with 8F-5D-2G. Add in Kaut, Bowers, Byram, LOC, Newhook and Timmins. Assuming Timmins gets 1m on an extension, Byram slides another season, and Newhook gets 925k base. We move up to 12F-7D-2G... close enough to full roster (short 2 available slots) with another 5.33m. So adding in 26.3m to the 55.116 the Avs currently have leaves them with less than 100k in room. Basically any bonus overage causes problems. If Byram doesn't slide again that cuts in 1/3. If Timmins is solid next season, becomes a mainstay, and earns $2m it is a problem. No matter which way you slice it, a contract has to go. I think the Avs clearly have their sights on it being Graves.