2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread

[Steve Kournianos]

My 2020 watch list is coming out soon. Within a few days. Just some initial thoughts.

1. Lafreniere is better than Hughes. At least draft resume-wise. You rarely, if ever, see him make the mistakes Hughes makes. OK, so he lacks the explosiveness. But he more than makes up for it with this hands, vision, hockey sense, incredible shot accuracy etc. Too early to say if he'll be a better NHL'er than Hughes and both probably go top-10 every year in scoring. Kinda like a Stamkos vs Tavares type deal.

2. Outstanding OHL crop. Talk about a bounceback year. Byfield is a stud and carreid that team, but I can see arguments that Rossi and Perfetti were better. I absolutely love Jamie Drysdale. He is Merkley without the warts and issues. I also see a lot of Stranges love, and I'm buying. But I get Sonny Milano vibes.

3. The Swedish forwards -- I feel like I'm seeing some recency bias over Raymond. To me, Holtz was the consistent wire-to-wire player. Both will be top-10 picks at a minimum, but I have to lean towards Holtz because of his explosiveness. There was a point this season where he was getting 2-3 breakaways a game. Nybeck and Gunler are a lot of fun as well. Top-20 for me right now.

4. Anton Lundell -- I am not getting the top-5 hype train at all. Excellent 200-foot player and a 1st rounder no doubt. But top-5 picks need a "wow" factor and I rarely see it. Matt Boldy, Peyton Krebs, Alex Turcotte and Kirby Dach are all 200-foot players, and they have the "wow" factor when they feel like it. I think Lundell is a top-15 pick but I can't put him above the kids I mentioned. At least not yet. I'm definitely pro Miettinen, Simontaival and Topi Niemela.

5. The Czechs got snubbed by the NHL at the draft. It was a joke. Doubt it happens again with Pytlik, Raska and Mysak. Mysak is amazing. I can watch that kid play 12 hours straight. IMO all three are first rounders, with Mysak top-10 caliber like Necas or Zadina.

6. Down year for the NTDP, but don't forget Farrell and Rolston, who are off to college. We hear the same names with the new U18's -- Sanderson, Smilanic etc. To me, the USHS kids and USHL will have another strong year. Love Colangelo and Reid, who were on last year's Hlinka. Other kids to watch are the Minny high schoolers -- Biondi, Boltmann, Richels, Jack Smith, Cole Hansen, Mason Streeter and Jackson Hallum.

7. Another good Russian crop. Vasili Ponomaryov, Maksim Groshev and Rodio Amirov lead the way, with others like Guschin, Pashin, Ovchinnikov -- all forwards. Obviously AskarovCan't believe Gordin and Gutik didn't get drafted but Mathew Hill (LOL!) and Greg Mierless did. So much anti-Russian bias in the draft process, and I don't expect it to change (although team like Colorado and the Devils are pro-Russia).

Obviously a lot more to discuss. The QMJHl and WHL also are excellent. Not a great year for goalies outside of Askarov and maybe Bednar and Blomqvist.

 

[brians1128]

My 2020 watch list is coming out soon. Within a few days. Just some initial thoughts.

1. Lafreniere is better than Hughes. At least draft resume-wise. You rarely, if ever, see him make the mistakes Hughes makes. OK, so he lacks the explosiveness. But he more than makes up for it with this hands, vision, hockey sense, incredible shot accuracy etc. Too early to say if he'll be a better NHL'er than Hughes and both probably go top-10 every year in scoring. Kinda like a Stamkos vs Tavares type deal.

2. Outstanding OHL crop. Talk about a bounceback year. Byfield is a stud and carreid that team, but I can see arguments that Rossi and Perfetti were better. I absolutely love Jamie Drysdale. He is Merkley without the warts and issues. I also see a lot of Stranges love, and I'm buying. But I get Sonny Milano vibes.

3. The Swedish forwards -- I feel like I'm seeing some recency bias over Raymond. To me, Holtz was the consistent wire-to-wire player. Both will be top-10 picks at a minimum, but I have to lean towards Holtz because of his explosiveness. There was a point this season where he was getting 2-3 breakaways a game. Nybeck and Gunler are a lot of fun as well. Top-20 for me right now.

4. Anton Lundell -- I am not getting the top-5 hype train at all. Excellent 200-foot player and a 1st rounder no doubt. But top-5 picks need a "wow" factor and I rarely see it. Matt Boldy, Peyton Krebs, Alex Turcotte and Kirby Dach are all 200-foot players, and they have the "wow" factor when they feel like it. I think Lundell is a top-15 pick but I can't put him above the kids I mentioned. At least not yet. I'm definitely pro Miettinen, Simontaival and Topi Niemela.

5. The Czechs got snubbed by the NHL at the draft. It was a joke. Doubt it happens again with Pytlik, Raska and Mysak. Mysak is amazing. I can watch that kid play 12 hours straight. IMO all three are first rounders, with Mysak top-10 caliber like Necas or Zadina.

6. Down year for the NTDP, but don't forget Farrell and Rolston, who are off to college. We hear the same names with the new U18's -- Sanderson, Smilanic etc. To me, the USHS kids and USHL will have another strong year. Love Colangelo and Reid, who were on last year's Hlinka. Other kids to watch are the Minny high schoolers -- Biondi, Boltmann, Richels, Jack Smith, Cole Hansen, Mason Streeter and Jackson Hallum.

7. Another good Russian crop. Vasili Ponomaryov, Maksim Groshev and Rodio Amirov lead the way, with others like Guschin, Pashin, Ovchinnikov -- all forwards. Obviously AskarovCan't believe Gordin and Gutik didn't get drafted but Mathew Hill (LOL!) and Greg Mierless did. So much anti-Russian bias in the draft process, and I don't expect it to change (although team like Colorado and the Devils are pro-Russia).

Obviously a lot more to discuss. The QMJHl and WHL also are excellent. Not a great year for goalies outside of Askarov and maybe Bednar and Blomqvist.

Great write up as always. It's really seems like if your missing the playoffs, you're getting paid. Top 15 looks really good in this draft.

 

[Joey Bones]

My 2020 watch list is coming out soon. Within a few days. Just some initial thoughts.

1. Lafreniere is better than Hughes. At least draft resume-wise. You rarely, if ever, see him make the mistakes Hughes makes. OK, so he lacks the explosiveness. But he more than makes up for it with this hands, vision, hockey sense, incredible shot accuracy etc. Too early to say if he'll be a better NHL'er than Hughes and both probably go top-10 every year in scoring. Kinda like a Stamkos vs Tavares type deal.

2. Outstanding OHL crop. Talk about a bounceback year. Byfield is a stud and carreid that team, but I can see arguments that Rossi and Perfetti were better. I absolutely love Jamie Drysdale. He is Merkley without the warts and issues. I also see a lot of Stranges love, and I'm buying. But I get Sonny Milano vibes.

3. The Swedish forwards -- I feel like I'm seeing some recency bias over Raymond. To me, Holtz was the consistent wire-to-wire player. Both will be top-10 picks at a minimum, but I have to lean towards Holtz because of his explosiveness. There was a point this season where he was getting 2-3 breakaways a game. Nybeck and Gunler are a lot of fun as well. Top-20 for me right now.

4. Anton Lundell -- I am not getting the top-5 hype train at all. Excellent 200-foot player and a 1st rounder no doubt. But top-5 picks need a "wow" factor and I rarely see it. Matt Boldy, Peyton Krebs, Alex Turcotte and Kirby Dach are all 200-foot players, and they have the "wow" factor when they feel like it. I think Lundell is a top-15 pick but I can't put him above the kids I mentioned. At least not yet. I'm definitely pro Miettinen, Simontaival and Topi Niemela.

5. The Czechs got snubbed by the NHL at the draft. It was a joke. Doubt it happens again with Pytlik, Raska and Mysak. Mysak is amazing. I can watch that kid play 12 hours straight. IMO all three are first rounders, with Mysak top-10 caliber like Necas or Zadina.

6. Down year for the NTDP, but don't forget Farrell and Rolston, who are off to college. We hear the same names with the new U18's -- Sanderson, Smilanic etc. To me, the USHS kids and USHL will have another strong year. Love Colangelo and Reid, who were on last year's Hlinka. Other kids to watch are the Minny high schoolers -- Biondi, Boltmann, Richels, Jack Smith, Cole Hansen, Mason Streeter and Jackson Hallum.

7. Another good Russian crop. Vasili Ponomaryov, Maksim Groshev and Rodio Amirov lead the way, with others like Guschin, Pashin, Ovchinnikov -- all forwards. Obviously AskarovCan't believe Gordin and Gutik didn't get drafted but Mathew Hill (LOL!) and Greg Mierless did. So much anti-Russian bias in the draft process, and I don't expect it to change (although team like Colorado and the Devils are pro-Russia).

Obviously a lot more to discuss. The QMJHl and WHL also are excellent. Not a great year for goalies outside of Askarov and maybe Bednar and Blomqvist.

Pretty much agree. Do you happen to know when the Hlinka-Gretzky tourney starts?

 

[sukimono]

You got Kakko and now Panarin... hate you guys

 

[bl02]

Goodbye top 10 pick in 2019 but I guess let’s see aav and term

 

[Hunter Gathers]

My 2020 watch list is coming out soon. Within a few days. Just some initial thoughts.

1. Lafreniere is better than Hughes. At least draft resume-wise.

Define "draft resume-wise", here. It makes no real sense as Hughes was more accomplished at the same age.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Pretty much agree. Do you happen to know when the Hlinka-Gretzky tourney starts?

Team USA just cut their real deal roster. Canada is in camp beginning 28 JUL in Calgary, which was 50 degrees two weeks ago lol. I think the first day of group play is 05 AUG -- CAN vs FIN and USA vs RUS to kick it off (not bad!).

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Define "draft resume-wise", here. It makes no real sense as Hughes was more accomplished at the same age.

1. Lafreniere was on Canada's U20 WJC team in his draft-1 and the U18 WC team in draft-2. Hughes was draft year and draft-1, respectively. There's a good bet Lafreniere is Canada's No. 1 center at this year's WJC and likely surpasses Hughes's four assists in four games as USA's No. 2 or 3 center. Speculation for now, but legitimate predictions.

2. Lafreniere in his draft-1 was 2nd in QMJHL scoring. He scored 42 goals in the Q as a draft-2. Hughes in his draft-2 was in Midget. That's all DOB stuff, but it is what it is -- we'll never know if Hughes crushes the CHL because he played elsewhere.

3. Lafreniere tied for the Hlinka scoring lead (2.20) in winning gold in his draft-1. Hughes in his draft-1 led the U18 WC points (1.71) but Cajkovic was better (2.20). US won bronze.

4. Hughes played alongside the greatest team (talent-wise) in NTDP history, possibly USA Hockey History (although the 1996 WC team is my No. 1). Lafreniere joined a 59-point team as a draft-2 and turned them into a 93-point team in one season as their leading scorer.

5. Skill set -- Lafreniere is more advanced than Hughes in practically every puck-skill area and intangible. Hughes has the edge in skating except balance. I used to doubt this but then I watched random blocks of Lafreniere and understand the hype is real.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

1. Lafreniere was on Canada's U20 WJC team in his draft-1 and the U18 WC team in draft-2. Hughes was draft year and draft-1, respectively. There's a good bet Lafreniere is Canada's No. 1 center at this year's WJC and likely surpasses Hughes's four assists in four games as USA's No. 2 or 3 center. Speculation for now, but legitimate predictions.

2. Lafreniere in his draft-1 was 2nd in QMJHL scoring. He scored 42 goals in the Q as a draft-2. Hughes in his draft-2 was in Midget. That's all DOB stuff, but it is what it is -- we'll never know if Hughes crushes the CHL because he played elsewhere.

3. Lafreniere tied for the Hlinka scoring lead (2.20) in winning gold in his draft-1. Hughes in his draft-1 led the U18 WC points (1.71) but Cajkovic was better (2.20). US won bronze.

4. Hughes played alongside the greatest team (talent-wise) in NTDP history, possibly USA Hockey History (although the 1996 WC team is my No. 1). Lafreniere joined a 59-point team as a draft-2 and turned them into a 93-point team in one season as their leading scorer.

5. Skill set -- Lafreniere is more advanced than Hughes in practically every puck-skill area and intangible. Hughes has the edge in skating except balance. I used to doubt this but then I watched random blocks of Lafreniere and understand the hype is real.

You're missing my point. Lafreniere is an older prospect for his draft class. If he's born a month earlier, he's in this draft. He's an October 11th birthday. So simply stating "draft-1" is a misnomer without clarifying his age. We are talking about two players that are almost identical in terms of their development age. Hughes is May 2001 and Lafreniere is October 2001. Hughes is not extremely young for his draft year, but he's certainly far from old. Lafreniere will, objectively, be an older prospect.

Lafreniere is an excellent prospect, but the pedigree is a bit under Hughes. You can outright compare their seasons last year due to the age similarity. Hughes was better at the U17s (17/18), the U18s (17/18 and 18/19), and the U20s. Penalizing Hughes for a talented US squad is pretty nonsensical when Hughes was, far and away, the driver of each of those US squads. As good as Hughes was at the 18/19 U18s (where he vastly outclassed essentially everyone), I actually find his 17/18 U18 even more impressive when he was vastly outclassing draft-eligible first rounders that year.

I see nothing from Lafreniere to put him over Hughes right now on paper and on their respective pedigrees. If you want to argue that Lafreniere is a more talented player (which I don't think takes into account that Hughes is an objectively better skater), that's at least an opinion that you don't need to ignore certain factors to get to. Hughes has an objectively better resume and I don't think you've said anything to change that.

 

[charliemurphy]

Sweet Jesus this fantasy of tanking has got to stop folks. It’s never happened and never will and is beyond annoying when talking about next years draft.
Perhaps a dedicated thread for tanking so we can all get a good laugh and one for the prospects in next years draft?

 

[Leetch3]

Sweet Jesus this fantasy of tanking has got to stop folks. It’s never happened and never will and is beyond annoying when talking about next years draft.
Perhaps a dedicated thread for tanking so we can all get a good laugh and one for the prospects in next years draft?

if you aren't interested in discussion potential 2020 draft picks you should probably avoid a thread dedicated to the 2020 draft

 

[Steve Kournianos]

You're missing my point. Lafreniere is an older prospect for his draft class. If he's born a month earlier, he's in this draft. He's an October 11th birthday. So simply stating "draft-1" is a misnomer without clarifying his age. We are talking about two players that are almost identical in terms of their development age. Hughes is May 2001 and Lafreniere is October 2001. Hughes is not extremely young for his draft year, but he's certainly far from old. Lafreniere will, objectively, be an older prospect.

Lafreniere is an excellent prospect, but the pedigree is a bit under Hughes. You can outright compare their seasons last year due to the age similarity. Hughes was better at the U17s (17/18), the U18s (17/18 and 18/19), and the U20s. Penalizing Hughes for a talented US squad is pretty nonsensical when Hughes was, far and away, the driver of each of those US squads. As good as Hughes was at the 18/19 U18s (where he vastly outclassed essentially everyone), I actually find his 17/18 U18 even more impressive when he was vastly outclassing draft-eligible first rounders that year.

I see nothing from Lafreniere to put him over Hughes right now on paper and on their respective pedigrees. If you want to argue that Lafreniere is a more talented player (which I don't think takes into account that Hughes is an objectively better skater), that's at least an opinion that you don't need to ignore certain factors to get to. Hughes has an objectively better resume and I don't think you've said anything to change that.

Hughes’s 18/19 is irrelevant because Lafreniere hasn’t played his draft year yet. I’m comparing draft-2 and draft-1.


I’ve come to the conclusion that brithdates also are irrelevant when it comes to first-year eligibles. Used to think differently, but data convinced me otherwise. It’s all about their performance within the Aug to April or May bracket. The late-birthday rules are unfair IMO because we’re talking about four measley months that segregate first-year eligibles.

You asked for examples behind my reasoning and I gave them to you. The NTDP was a machine without Hughes. Rimouski was a doormat without Lafreniere. But that’s just part of it.

Hughes, at times, is a puck hog, skates himself into trouble and has poor balance (which will improve). Lafreniere is more controlled, far more team-oriented with his passing and positioning. Hughes has the elite speed, agility and edgework, but I’ve also seen Hughes steal pucks from his own teammates. All these things will get fixed shortly, but again, we’re comparing pre-draft resumes, not upside.

There’s really nothing to change my mind as it’s all subjevtive. I’ll reassess in May of 2020.

 

[Edge]

Who is this Steve Kournianos guy? Never heard of him...

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Hughes’s 18/19 is irrelevant because Lafreniere hasn’t played his draft year yet. I’m comparing draft-2 and draft-1.


I’ve come to the conclusion that brithdates also are irrelevant when it comes to first-year eligibles. Used to think differently, but data convinced me otherwise. It’s all about their performance within the Aug to April or May bracket. The late-birthday rules are unfair IMO because we’re talking about four measley months that segregate first-year eligibles.

You asked for examples behind my reasoning and I gave them to you. The NTDP was a machine without Hughes. Rimouski was a doormat without Lafreniere. But that’s just part of it.

Hughes, at times, is a puck hog, skates himself into trouble and has poor balance (which will improve). Lafreniere is more controlled, far more team-oriented with his passing and positioning. Hughes has the elite speed, agility and edgework, but I’ve also seen Hughes steal pucks from his own teammates. All these things will get fixed shortly, but again, we’re comparing pre-draft resumes, not upside.

There’s really nothing to change my mind as it’s all subjevtive. I’ll reassess in May of 2020.

So it sounds like you've largely conceded the "resume" part as it's pretty much objectively false that Lafreniere has a better resume.

I have no problem with you thinking Lafreniere is a better prospect. But it certainly isn't on something objective like a resume. The idea that Lafreniere has a better resume is just objectively false.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

So it sounds like you've largely conceded the "resume" part as it's pretty much objectively false that Lafreniere has a better resume.

I have no problem with you thinking Lafreniere is a better prospect. But it certainly isn't on something objective like a resume. The idea that Lafreniere has a better resume is just objectively false.

Again, it’s my personal barometers. My metrics. My agenda. People can believe me or find out for themselves. I view their resumes differently than you.

I’m more impressed with what Lafreniere’s draft-2 and draft-1 looked like than what Hughes did in those same seasons, and I stated why.

A falsehood is saying Lafreniere is a better skater, or Hughes has better balance.

 

[Mac n Gs]

if you aren't interested in discussion potential 2020 draft picks you should probably avoid a thread dedicated to the 2020 draft

We should just trade all of our 2020 draft picks, CBJ style. Who needs prospects when the window is OPEN with the Panarin signing.

I really don't need the sarcasm emote, right?

 

[Joey Bones]

More 7ths!!!!

 

[Joey Bones]

 

[redwhiteandblue]

Ok well I fell in love with Stranges at about the 2:00 mark.

Perfetti... what a shot. High energy, very good around the net. Like that he can get close and score the dirty ones too.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I need more information on Cole Perfetti.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Again, it’s my personal barometers. My metrics. My agenda. People can believe me or find out for themselves. I view their resumes differently than you.

I’m more impressed with what Lafreniere’s draft-2 and draft-1 looked like than what Hughes did in those same seasons, and I stated why.

A falsehood is saying Lafreniere is a better skater, or Hughes has better balance.

As I've said, it sounds like you've largely conceded the "resume" part as it's pretty much objectively false that Lafreniere has a better resume.

Good to know.

 

[True Blue]

Gotta tell you, I know people are excited about Panarin, but if Kreider goes, and the rest stays status quo, this team is still a bottom 10 team with a chance to be lottery. The chances of a high pick are still pretty good.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Gotta tell you, I know people are excited about Panarin, but if Kreider goes, and the rest stays status quo, this team is still a bottom 10 team with a chance to be lottery. The chances of a high pick are still pretty good.

As excited as I am about the talent we've added this summer, this team is still lacking the depth necessary to make this team a playoff contender this season. We'll have much better players to shoulder the burden on the top line and top pairing, but I'm still fully expecting to see growing pains from Chytil, Fox, Lias, Howden, Kakko, and Kravtsov. These kids are still all between 18-21 years old.

Ideally, we'll have two more picks in the 2020 draft, another full season of development for the guys mentioned above plus Buch, Lemieux, ADA, etc., and the added cap flexibility of shedding the last big Girardi buyout payment, Names contract, and Kreider's extension.

It'll be a transition year, but it'll at least have the draw of talent to keep people engaged.

 

[True Blue]

It'll be a transition year, but it'll at least have the draw of talent to keep people engaged.

Exactly. Just a transition year. If Kreider is gone and no other changes, this team still has the look of a bottom-1o team, if not lottery. Heck, keep Kreider and trade Buch and I would still say the same thing. I know people are excited, but wow are the expectations suddenly off the board.

Or maybe it's just us and we should be like the guy that stood on a soapbox and declared the Rangers a center away from Cup contention. PERIOD.

 

[charliemurphy]

if you aren't interested in discussion potential 2020 draft picks you should probably avoid a thread dedicated to the 2020 draft

Exactly. Not a discussion about the fantasy of tanking but just a discussion of 2020 picks. Thanks for clearing that up.