Draft 2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part VII

[NYR Viper]

I really like that Greig is so young for this draft and has already played so well in the WHL.

 

[Edge]

Typically we as fans tend to judge a pick based on general pre-draft rankings. You end up hearing lots of reactions to picks like I cant believe so and so who was projected as a top 10 pick fell to us at 18! What a steal!

But I think that's just not the best way to view selections made after the top 15 or so picks.

It doesn't really matter if a player is ranked 22, 32, 44 or 50. If you're an NHL scouting dept, every player you pick from the second half of round 1 on is all about getting the guy you targetted. The guy you want that won't be available whenever you pick next.

For the Rangers, after 22, their next pick is 71! That's a pool of almost 50 players to choose from (barring additional moves) and they've just got one lottery ticket to use.

As a result, they're going to pick the guy they would have nightmares about passing on. And they are NOT going to have nightmares about passing on the guy who they didn't target in the first place, even if everyone else is convinced so-and-so just fell to them at 22. (unless, of course, that guy was their target all along).

And I would argue that this is the Rangers greatest strength. Specifically finding NHL talent in the second half of round 1. K. Miller, Lundkvist, Chytil, JT Miller, Sjkei, Kreider, Del Zotto, Korpikoski all in this area. And at least a few of these guys were considered over-drafts at the time. Lundkvist, Kreider and Chytil specifically.

Point is, if they go with Grieg or Kleven or some other guy who seems like a reach, this is why. They're merely using that one lottery ticket on the player they want the most that won't be there come pick 71.

At the end of the day, the only ranking that ultimately matters is the one assigned by the time making the draft selection. Now, having said that, teams do try to assign some semblence of value to maximize the return. Kleven might be a bit of a reach based on value, whereas Greig is probably closer to being in the ballpark. So I would imagine reaction to the latter being more accepting than the former. There was some speculation, though nothing concrete, that Kleven isn't even the defenseman from the U.S. program that the Rangers came away most impressed with. But I honestly don't know how accurate that is.

 

[Edge]

I really like that Greig is so young for this draft and has already played so well in the WHL.

With Greig, to some extent, you do have to factor in his age compared to his peers (just like Byfield).

I was chatting with someone the other day in a PM and noted that while I have Greig in the same general mold/role as someone like Amirov or Holloway, he's actually 10 months younger than the former and 11 months younger than the latter. For all intents and purposes they are a year older than him. While that doesn't necessarily mean Greig has substantially more runway to work with, it isn't something to be completely overlooked at this stage of development either.

 

[Edge]

we also need to remember that those pre-draft rankings are just a snippet to give you an idea on a player and 90% of the descriptions make every player sound like a future superstar. and we don't know who many times each team has gotten to see a guy. I know the scouching guy on youtube always mentions that he tries to watch guys 7 times, which becomes a lot of games for 1 person when talking about tons of prospects. but its a pretty small sample size. guys have slumps and hot streaks...but a NHL team with a full scouting staff might have seen someone a ton more times with multiple different scouts giving their POV...for example Dylan Holloway, as a teammate of K'Andre Miller, the rangers might have seen every one of his games this year...

and also which pre-rankings do you go by if a guy is all over? Ridly Greig for example:

EliteProspects.com - 83
Future Considerations - 54
Craig Button - 30
McKeen's - 24
NHL Central Scouting - 14 (NA Skaters)
Bob McKenzie - 24
RLR - 18
Black Book - 14

now some of those may be old rankings that weren't updated but thats a pretty big range from 14 to middle of the 3rd round...so if you guy by McKenzie taking him at 24 is spot on. if you go by Black Book or RLR its a steal. if you go by FC or EP is a huge reach

The Elite Prospects and Future Considerations have to be outdated --- or at least I would assume them to be.

I feel like I have him on the lower side by having him in the 30s. But 54 and 83 seems really out there.

 

[Leetch3]

The Elite Prospects and Future Considerations have to be outdated --- or at least I would assume them to be.

I feel like I have him on the lower side by having him in the 30s. But 54 and 83 seems really out there.

most likely but that is what his profile on elite prospects shows right now, being outdated or wrong, wouldn't stop a fan that doesn't like the pick from using it as proof that gordie should be fired lol

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

This probably one of Gordie's last drafts right? I feel like taking Lafreniere and knocking the rest of the picks out of the park would be a solid swansong to go out with

 

[Ghost of jas]

At the end of the day, the only ranking that ultimately matters is the one assigned by the time making the draft selection. Now, having said that, teams do try to assign some semblence of value to maximize the return. Kleven might be a bit of a reach based on value, whereas Greig is probably closer to being in the ballpark. So I would imagine reaction to the latter being more accepting than the former. There was some speculation, though nothing concrete, that Kleven isn't even the defenseman from the U.S. program that the Rangers came away most impressed with. But I honestly don't know how accurate that is.

Powell?

 

[Leetch3]

Powell?

assuming its not jake sanderson since that wouldn't be a surprising take lol

 

[Edge]

Powell?

I suspect he could actually be the number 2 defenseman from the program in the Rangers eyes, and not Kleven. But I don't know that for sure.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Powell is great. I don't know if he's going to be available in the third, but I'd absolutely move into the second to take him

He's smart, can skate, and the overall package in general are all there. Going to BC, and the Fox comparison some here have mentioned is dead on. Could absolutely see Powell getting similar amount of hype in a few years

 

[Mandar]

Despite concerns with his skating.....I am aboard the Connor Zary train.....

 

[Edge]

Despite concerns with his skating.....I am aboard the Connor Zary train.....

I feel like Zary is one of those picks the board really doesn't want. But my most observances, he's right in our range.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I feel like Zary is one of those picks the board really doesn't want. But my most observances, he's right in our range.

I wouldn't have liked Zary at the original spot but at 22 sure why not

I'm at the point where as long as the Rangers don't go way out of left field, I'll be fine with whoever they pick. And by left field I'm talking like the Wild taking Filip Johansson in the 1st round when he was projected to go in the 3rd.

That I would have an issue with lol

 

[eco's bones]

With Greig, to some extent, you do have to factor in his age compared to his peers (just like Byfield).

I was chatting with someone the other day in a PM and noted that while I have Greig in the same general mold/role as someone like Amirov or Holloway, he's actually 10 months younger than the former and 11 months younger than the latter. For all intents and purposes they are a year older than him. While that doesn't necessarily mean Greig has substantially more runway to work with, it isn't something to be completely overlooked at this stage of development either.

One of the things to keep in mind with that is that if any of the three has a growth spurt it's most likely going to be Greig.

 

[egelband]

I remember the Rangers had a draft pick years ago named John Vary. Around the Doug Weight pick. (I used to collect the media guides). Vary and Zary rhyme.
So it’s pretty clear how this is going to play out.

 

[Edge]

I wouldn't have liked Zary at the original spot but at 22 sure why not

I'm at the point where as long as the Rangers don't go way out of left field, I'll be fine with whoever they pick. And by left field I'm talking like the Wild taking Filip Johansson in the 1st round when he was projected to go in the 3rd.

That I would have an issue with lol

He was a prospect of interest earlier this year, but then his name faded from conversations and it seemed like the Rangers cooled on him.

Could still be on the radar, maybe just not as quite as high as he once was.

They weren't going to take him at 12, but 22 could be a possibility.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I suspect he could actually be the number 2 defenseman from the program in the Rangers eyes, and not Kleven. But I don't know that for sure.

I'm a huge fan of Powell. If we can get him in the 3rd, that's a steal. I honestly wouldn't be opposed to trading up into the 2nd with both 3rd round picks to grab him

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

One of the things to keep in mind with that is that if any of the three has a growth spurt it's most likely going to be Greig.

In skill as well as size. I'm much more comfortable with the idea of Greig now that I realize how young he is vis-a-vis the rest of the class.

 

[Edge]

I feel like we're focusing on Greig because he's a name that is believed to be on the Rangers short list, and a viable candidate to actually be on the board at 22. So continuing that approach, I think Greig's stat line is a little mis-leading.

His full 72 game WHL schedule pace works out to 33 goals, 77 points, 107 pims, and a +14.

Here's a decent video with some clips of him in action. I agree with a lot of the assessment and a line about half-way through the video - he's the kind of guy you look for with playoff hockey.

 

[Matt4776]

I feel like we're focusing on Greig because he's a name that is believed to be on the Rangers short list, and a viable candidate to actually be on the board at 22. So continuing that approach, I think Greig's stat line is a little mis-leading.

However, his full 72 game WHL schedule pace works out to 33 goals, 77 points, 107 pims, and a +14.

Here's a decent video with some clips of him in action. I agree with a lot of the assessment and a line about half-way through the video - he's the kind of guy you look for with playoff hockey.

Apologies if you've been asked this already, but do you think Greig is someone they like over someone like Lapierre if he's available at 22? Or is Greig more of a fallback option if the first 21 picks goes relatively chalk?

 

[Edge]

Apologies if you've been asked this already, but do you think Greig is someone they like over someone like Lapierre if he's available at 22? Or is Greig more of a fallback option if the first 21 picks goes relatively chalk?

I honestly don't know.

I am fairly certain of the Rangers top 10 at this point.

I feel like I know about half the names they have from 11-22. I am confident that Amirov, Holloway, Greig and Lapierre are all in that mix though, along with Guhle on defense.

What I am really not sure about is the specific order, or the remaining 6 or 7 names.

 

[Trxjw]

The really intriguing factor with Grieg in my eyes is his potential to be a guy who can bounce up and down the lineup and not be out of place. Having options to compliment your skill players is critical to sustained success. Great to have line drivers of course but cheap, complimentary players are also very important.

 

[Edge]

The really intriguing factor with Grieg in my eyes is his potential to be a guy who can bounce up and down the lineup and not be out of place. Having options to compliment your skill players is critical to sustained success. Great to have line drivers of course but cheap, complimentary players are also very important.

I know some people have concerns about the size/strength at the NHL level. That's not really a concern for me. I think he plays at 5'11/6'0, and close to 200 pounds.

The question for me is the offense and the position. On the low-end, his game translates to a fourth line NHL player who pops in the odd point. The likely upside is more in the third line mold. But can he take it a little beyond that? Can he get closer to that Callahan/Dubinsky/Konowalchuk level? Can he stick at center?

That's the potential difference in long-term value and draft position for some teams.

Are you looking at a 10 goal/20 point fourth line LW? A 15 goal, 35 point third line center? Or can you envision a 20 goal, 50 point tweener who maybe sneaks up to some second line assignments when the team needs to change things up?

Each of those plateaus and projections could be the difference between a guy you consider taking at 35, at 25, or even in the late teens.

 

[NYR Viper]

The really intriguing factor with Grieg in my eyes is his potential to be a guy who can bounce up and down the lineup and not be out of place. Having options to compliment your skill players is critical to sustained success. Great to have line drivers of course but cheap, complimentary players are also very important.

This along with his age and the fact that he will more than likely grow a bit is important also. He's playing that feisty game, on paper, when giving up some size and weight to older players.

 

[Leetch3]

Apologies if you've been asked this already, but do you think Greig is someone they like over someone like Lapierre if he's available at 22? Or is Greig more of a fallback option if the first 21 picks goes relatively chalk?

I think the proper question is how much do lapierre's injuries/concussions scare them...without injuries he's a top 10 pick probably and has 1st line upside. so he's got more talent and no reason to not 'like him more' but the injury history is a bit scary