Draft 2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part V

[CTRanger]

Anybody seen this guy’s channel before? Good stuff.

Thanks for posting this, I was just thinking I should put it up. Khusnutdinov is the player I have the most interest in with the CAR pick unless something crazy happens and there is a big faller. His skating/edges remind me of Barzal. Always a chance he’s a career KHL guy, but the Skating, hockey sense and high end compete level all over the ice is just so enticing. Guy just makes plays all over the ice. If the offense doesn’t come the ability to be a shutdown middle 6 C that every team needs to win is real.

 

[The Sweetness]

I don’t think the Rangers go into a draft picking “safe.”

I think they take who they believe is the BPA. The problem is that a lot of fans assume BPA equals offensive ability. Or should I say perceived offensive ability.

Just because we think a guy is a 30 goal/60 point player, doesn’t mean the Rangers do. And likewise, sometimes the better player is the two way right wing and not the flashy center.

I hope people don’t think that the Rangers are skipping the 10th guy on their list to take the 15th guy because they are having some kind of panic attack about “risk.”

Yeah, I agree with this take. I also agree that flashiness shouldn’t be associated with upside or that we shouldn’t try to draft players who play both sides of the puck because we shouldn’t “play it safe”.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I'm taking the boom player.

Me, too. It's why Perrault intrigues me.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I agree it's a decision that's a moment in time but really you have to look at everything about the situation to really improve and learn from it. Law of numbers- it happens with drafts. On sheer probability alone, you are going to see busts and disappointments in the top 10.

Arizona a year later reached for Hayton. Jury is still out on him

 

[Kovalev27]

Hendrix Lapierre around 22 23 is the pick id make. It’s worth the health risk for a guy that should have been a top 10 pick. If he’s there you just took a no brainer in Lafreniere, this would be my homerun swing.

 

[The Sweetness]

Think you have to look at it this way though--there was the pre-covid economic dynamic--the covid economic dynamic and some day whenever...the post covid economic dynamic. Being able to negotiate through the covid flat cap is going to be somewhat more dependent than it has been on any given team's ability to work its ELC's and second contracts. Arbitrated RFA contracts could become a huge problem for teams that are top heavy with expensive and/or long term contracts. If the Rangers had had some pre-knowledge before the deadline about the pandemic IMO they probably let Kreider go. The problem with arbitrated RFA contracts is that arbitrators are most likely to compare a player's new salary to comparable players around the league in the pre-covid economic dynamic and not the way things are going to be when the cap goes flat for however long a period that is.

The Rangers are actually in a much better position than other teams with a backlog of top rated prospects but IMO you make cuts where you can or at least if you have to. At the end of the day the Rangers will have to have enough cap for Mika in a couple years--and maybe Kakko and/or Igor and Fox too. If Tony or Pavel score big long term contracts that could become a problem.

Yeah, I agree with this.

My main point is just that TDA is worth way more than the difference between pick 23-26 and pick 13-16 (or whatever the exact picks were you proposed).

But yeah, ability to manage the cap situation is one of the key success factors for teams now.

 

[Mikos87]

Arizona a year later reached for Hayton. Jury is still out on him

There's history there with Hayton's junior team and analytics and the numbers they posted. ARI's old GM was big on that. Hayton is also a smart kid, but he's also a guy that I would say serves as how great of a player Alexis Lafreniere is since he spoon fed Hayton some All-Canadian glory that will last his entire lifetime.

But yeah I agree, I don't see a star player there, I get an inkling about him like I did with that Vancouver pick in the late 2000, Cody Hodson. Underwhelming athlete goes top 10 after player well enough in juniors. But we'll see, he might be a character guy that drives hard to the net all the time, and gets 15-20 just as a result of it.

Either way I don't see a natural top 6 talent but one that might peak there for 3-5 years based on effort and smarts.

 

[Joey Bones]

I haven't ran a draft sim in a while, but since it was updated to NYR with No. 1 I gave it another go....

1 (1) LW: Alexis Lafreniere
1 (23) C/RW: Seth Jarvis
3 (72) RW: Sam Colangelo
3 (86) D: Wyatt Kaiser
4 (103) C: Tristan Robins
5 (134) RW: Ryder Rolston
6 (165) G: Artur Akhtyamov
7 (196) LW: Dmitri Sheshin
7 (197) RW: Ben Steeves
7 (205) RW: Bogdan Trineyev

 

[Mikos87]

Hendrix Lapierre around 22 23 is the pick id make. It’s worth the health risk for a guy that should have been a top 10 pick. If he’s there you just took a no brainer in Lafreniere, this would be my homerun swing.

He better have been playing with two broken shoulders and with both of his wrists sprained to put up those goal numbers in the Q.

 

[Fireonk]

If the Carolina pick is in a slot where you can get a real boom pick who is maybe 3-4 years away and will need a lot of coaching and development, do you do it?

My philosophy has changed, you are getting the biggest boom with the safest pick, so taking another swing is not a bad idea. This is a very good draft imo, and one that does not seem to have the usual concensus you would see form with the end of year tourneys and playoffs.

There are guys I like a lot who are not universally rated as high players. Some I think will be available in the 2nd and 3rd.

So if the 21st pick is a player who can be one of the 2nd or 3rd best player at his position- and he is 3-4 years away with a lot of development needed, do you take it and wait?

Or do you take a player who has middle of the line-up upside that can play in 1-2 years?

Boom all the way. Getting someone that is an impact player on an ELC in 3-4 years would be more important than having someone who can just sort of fill-in in 1-2 years.

 

[Kovalev27]

Hendrix Lapierre: 2020 NHL Draft Prospect Profile; The Most Unpredictable Prospect

This is a really good article on him. A misdiagnosed neck issue was the big problem people thought it was a third major concussion.

the fact that everything stopped and people haven’t seen him play since could have him available later than he should be. He’s that good. That Hlinka tourney he was one of if not the best players on the ice. Perfect book/bust pick and when you’ve already drafted the best player in the draft you can afford to take a chance here.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Hendrix Lapierre: 2020 NHL Draft Prospect Profile; The Most Unpredictable Prospect

This is a really good article on him. A misdiagnosed neck issue was the big problem people thought it was a third major concussion.

the fact that everything stopped and people haven’t seen him play since could have him available later than he should be. He’s that good. That Hlinka tourney he was one of if not the best players on the ice. Perfect book/bust pick and when you’ve already drafted the best player in the draft you can afford to take a chance here.

That's still 2 concussions before the draft. Big red flag

 

[LaffyTaffy]

I haven't ran a draft sim in a while, but since it was updated to NYR with No. 1 I gave it another go....

1 (1) LW: Alexis Lafreniere
1 (23) C/RW: Seth Jarvis
3 (72) RW: Sam Colangelo
3 (86) D: Wyatt Kaiser
4 (103) C: Tristan Robins
5 (134) RW: Ryder Rolston
6 (165) G: Artur Akhtyamov
7 (196) LW: Dmitri Sheshin
7 (197) RW: Ben Steeves
7 (205) RW: Bogdan Trineyev

i would LOVE this, though I probably see what else is out there in the 7th round after Sheshin. Otherwise, amazing haul.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

That's still 2 concussions before the draft. Big red flag

It's not only 2 concussions, but also the neck injury plus I think he had a shoulder issue as well.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

It's not only 2 concussions, but also the neck injury plus I think he had a shoulder issue as well.

Yeah, and if this was a top-5 talent, I wouldn't mind going for it at 24. But there's an adundance of options in that range.

 

[mas0764]

Love it when I get to show off my work

So what this tells me is they can easily get up 3-4 spots with the draft capital they have this year. There is precedent for getting up more like 8-10 spots to 14 or so but they probably have to dip into prospects or a future 2nd or a roster player, but nothing crazy.

I’m down.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I haven't ran a draft sim in a while, but since it was updated to NYR with No. 1 I gave it another go....

1 (1) LW: Alexis Lafreniere
1 (23) C/RW: Seth Jarvis
3 (72) RW: Sam Colangelo
3 (86) D: Wyatt Kaiser
4 (103) C: Tristan Robins
5 (134) RW: Ryder Rolston
6 (165) G: Artur Akhtyamov
7 (196) LW: Dmitri Sheshin
7 (197) RW: Ben Steeves
7 (205) RW: Bogdan Trineyev

I too got Robins in the 4th.

I think he goes much earlier than that, but the top 2 is so good it almost doesn't matter after that

 

[SnowFort]

The Andersson pick doesn’t bother me (not that it did before) after we won the lottery. Every choice the Rangers have made, everything that has happened the last few years put them in the perfect chain of events to win the right to select Lafreniere.

Had they chosen differently, we may not be in this situation today.

 

[bl02]

The Andersson pick doesn’t bother me (not that it did before) after we won the lottery. Every choice the Rangers have made, everything that has happened the last few years put them in the perfect chain of events to win the right to select Lafreniere.

Had they chosen differently, we may not be in this situation today.

Not saying you’re wrong but that’s the glass half full approach. Nothing wrong with that tho.
I know it’s fantasy land now but just wished someone like Lias would have stayed in Europe to develop a few more years. Like Nils and even K’Andre here no rushing to try to make the team year after they are drafted

 

[bl02]

So what this tells me is they can easily get up 3-4 spots with the draft capital they have this year. There is precedent for getting up more like 8-10 spots to 14 or so but they probably have to dip into prospects or a future 2nd or a roster player, but nothing crazy.

I’m down.

devils will probably own two spots in that Range definitely at least one. Will limit our trading partners so may be a bit harder than we think. Let’s hope for the best with the second pick. Hopefully someone who can truly contribute in 2-3 years

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

So what this tells me is they can easily get up 3-4 spots with the draft capital they have this year. There is precedent for getting up more like 8-10 spots to 14 or so but they probably have to dip into prospects or a future 2nd or a roster player, but nothing crazy.

I’m down.

Well it takes a willing dance partner but yeah, the pieces are there to trade up.

The NJD minefield worries me a little as they'll probably be picking 2 times in the teens before we pick again (need Vancouver to make a CF run) but is there a team in that range that desperately needs to replenish prospect depth?

 

[RangersFan1994]

Safe is not always best.

See: Lias Andersson. Go for BPA. Go for another Chytil type pick.

Lias Andersson is a bad example. he just has issues mental or personal. awful pick when it happened

 

[broadwayblue]

The Andersson pick doesn’t bother me (not that it did before) after we won the lottery. Every choice the Rangers have made, everything that has happened the last few years put them in the perfect chain of events to win the right to select Lafreniere.

Had they chosen differently, we may not be in this situation today.

Exactly. Everything changes everything. If we hadn't signed Panarin we probably didn't make it to the qualifying round and we aren't picking #1 overall.

 

[Rangers394]

Hendrix Lapierre: 2020 NHL Draft Prospect Profile; The Most Unpredictable Prospect

This is a really good article on him. A misdiagnosed neck issue was the big problem people thought it was a third major concussion.

the fact that everything stopped and people haven’t seen him play since could have him available later than he should be. He’s that good. That Hlinka tourney he was one of if not the best players on the ice. Perfect book/bust pick and when you’ve already drafted the best player in the draft you can afford to take a chance here.

I'm not taking him with all of those concussions. No way

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

If the Carolina pick is in a slot where you can get a real boom pick who is maybe 3-4 years away and will need a lot of coaching and development, do you do it?

My philosophy has changed, you are getting the biggest boom with the safest pick, so taking another swing is not a bad idea. This is a very good draft imo, and one that does not seem to have the usual concensus you would see form with the end of year tourneys and playoffs.

There are guys I like a lot who are not universally rated as high players. Some I think will be available in the 2nd and 3rd.

So if the 21st pick is a player who can be one of the 2nd or 3rd best player at his position- and he is 3-4 years away with a lot of development needed, do you take it and wait?

Or do you take a player who has middle of the line-up upside that can play in 1-2 years?

Before last Monday I would have said take the "boom" all day, but I think the lottery (aka adding another hopefully huge $ player in the near future) plus the "flat cap era" makes me wonder if finding cheap depth on ELCs may actually be more beneficial to the NYR.

They are gonna need depth to win a Cup and with the studs they have in the roster/pipeline they are likely not going to be in a position to pay that depth.