Prospect Info: 2020 Devils-Centric Mock Draft, Conference Finals Edition

[StevenToddIves]

Sure, but you said we couldn't assume that guys like Mysak would fall, and Pronman has him at #43.

Actually though, part of the appeal of a trade like that to me is that I do think someone will inevitably tumble, and it would be good to be at #40 to scoop him up since we don't have a second round pick.

Annually, my rankings are closer to the actual draft order than Pronman. This is not because I'm better, but simply because my mind-set has more in common with current NHL front offices. Pronman clearly states he down-ranks defensemen, especially defensive-minded ones. He does not weigh compete level or a 200-foot game so much as the more dynamic offensive skills.

The perfect example of this would be that last year I had Moritz Seider at #11, while Pronman had him at #22. Another would be Victor Soderstrom, #21 on my list and #27 on Pronman's. This year, Pronman has Jake Sanderson at #13, Kaiden Guhle at #34 and Ryan O'Rourke at #60 while I have them at #4, #22 and #29 respectively. If you were forced to bet your life savings on which one of Pronman or myself would wind up closer to the actual draft positions of this trio, who would you bet on?

Granted, I have biases, as well. I absolutely cannot stand defensemen who think playing defense is optional, and NHL teams will still take a chance on those players if they have a good mix of size and skating. The perfect examples last year would be Philip Broberg (#9 for Pronman, #48 for me) and Alex Vlasic (#24 for Pronman, #74 for me).

If you want my Mysak argument, here it is: you can't rank Mysak at #43 and Nybeck at #41. It just doesn't make sense. Mysak is bigger, smarter, faster, shoots better, passes better, plays better defensively, competes harder and has more grit than Nybeck and none of these categories are even close or debatable. Without criticizing Nybeck, let's just say he was not in consideration for my top 100.

Now, Pronman certainly will be right that Nybeck will be drafted on the basis of his tremendous hands and great shot, even though he is undersized and does not skate well or compete hard. I'd say he goes in the 3rd or 4th rounds, higher than I would rank him. But I think it's also a safe bet that Mysak is drafted closer to where I have him ranked at #24 than to where Pronman has him ranked at #43. If Mysak fell into the second round at all, I guarantee there would be teams scrambling to trade up to draft him.

Again, none of this is a slight to Pronman, who I simply love reading. He's terrific. But my point is that he has biases, I have biases, we all have biases. It's another part of what makes draft talk fun.

 

[Blackjack]

Annually, my rankings are closer to the actual draft order than Pronman. This is not because I'm better, but simply because my mind-set has more in common with current NHL front offices. Pronman clearly states he down-ranks defensemen, especially defensive-minded ones. He does not weigh compete level or a 200-foot game so much as the more dynamic offensive skills.

The perfect example of this would be that last year I had Moritz Seider at #11, while Pronman had him at #22. Another would be Victor Soderstrom, #21 on my list and #27 on Pronman's. This year, Pronman has Jake Sanderson at #13, Kaiden Guhle at #34 and Ryan O'Rourke at #60 while I have them at #4, #22 and #29 respectively. If you were forced to bet your life savings on which one of Pronman or myself would wind up closer to the actual draft positions of this trio, who would you bet on?

Granted, I have biases, as well. I absolutely cannot stand defensemen who think playing defense is optional, and NHL teams will still take a chance on those players if they have a good mix of size and skating. The perfect examples last year would be Philip Broberg (#9 for Pronman, #48 for me) and Alex Vlasic (#24 for Pronman, #74 for me).

If you want my Mysak argument, here it is: you can't rank Mysak at #43 and Nybeck at #41. It just doesn't make sense. Mysak is bigger, smarter, faster, shoots better, passes better, plays better defensively, competes harder and has more grit than Nybeck and none of these categories are even close or debatable. Without criticizing Nybeck, let's just say he was not in consideration for my top 100.

Now, Pronman certainly will be right that Nybeck will be drafted on the basis of his tremendous hands and great shot, even though he is undersized and does not skate well or compete hard. I'd say he goes in the 3rd or 4th rounds, higher than I would rank him. But I think it's also a safe bet that Mysak is drafted closer to where I have him ranked at #24 than to where Pronman has him ranked at #43. If Mysak fell into the second round at all, I guarantee there would be teams scrambling to trade up to draft him.

Again, none of this is a slight to Pronman, who I simply love reading. He's terrific. But my point is that he has biases, I have biases, we all have biases. It's another part of what makes draft talk fun.

In your scenario, can I ask who you think the Devils could scoop up at #40?

Edit: Sorry, just realized you already said who you'd take **headslap**

 

[MikeyFlynn]

Unfortunately, I think it's very likely both Sanderson and Rossi are off the board at 7. I believe the Devils will take Jamie Drysdale with the 7th pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Unfortunately, I think it's very likely both Sanderson and Rossi are off the board at 7. I believe the Devils will take Jamie Drysdale with the 7th pick.

Drysdale is the guy I want. The Devils are thinner than anywhere else at RD, and they have not had a defenseman with Drysdale's game-changing dynamic offensive talents from the blueline since Scott Niedermeyer. I love the idea of a future top Devils pairing of Drysdale and Bahl.

 

[Nicomo Cosca]

Drysdale is the guy I want. The Devils are thinner than anywhere else at RD, and they have not had a defenseman with Drysdale's game-changing dynamic offensive talents from the blueline since Scott Niedermeyer. I love the idea of a future top Devils pairing of Drysdale and Bahl.

So a Niedermayer/White type pairing. I like it.

 

[Nubmer6]

Drysdale is the guy I want. The Devils are thinner than anywhere else at RD, and they have not had a defenseman with Drysdale's game-changing dynamic offensive talents from the blueline since Scott Niedermeyer. I love the idea of a future top Devils pairing of Drysdale and Bahl.

I keep flipping between Drysdale and Sanderson. I feel we have depth on LD with Smith and all the defensive defense men we drafted. On RD we're definitely thin in the pipeline, but have some quality, especially if Smith is indeed a RD.

Ideally we'd pick up a 1LD and a few 2/3 RD to fill out the pipeline.

 

[Blackjack]

Reading the prospects board and it looks like Lapierre is having a really good preseason, lots of fans hoping their GM will take a stab at him with a mid 1st, so might not make it to us at 18.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Wasn't Lapierre projected to go in the top-5 (or at least top-10) back in September? What happened?

 

[Blackjack]

Wasn't Lapierre projected to go in the top-5 (or at least top-10) back in September? What happened?

I don't know where he was ranked a year ago, but in '19-'20 he had injury problems (concussion) and didn't have a productive season.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Reading the prospects board and it looks like Lapierre is having a really good preseason, lots of fans hoping their GM will take a stab at him with a mid 1st, so might not make it to us at 18.

Isn’t it expects for him to play really well... when he’s healthy is the problem. So he looks great when he’s on the ice and healthy but then he takes on hit and he’s got a 4th concussion. That’s the problem with drafting him and especially using a 1st rounder with other high upside players still on the board.

 

[FooteBahl]

Isn’t it expects for him to play really well... when he’s healthy is the problem. So he looks great when he’s on the ice and healthy but then he takes on hit and he’s got a 4th concussion. That’s the problem with drafting him and especially using a 1st rounder with other high upside players still on the board.

I thought i read somewhere that the concussions we’re mis-diagnosed and it had something to do with his spine...I could be thinking about the wrong guy though. Not that a spine issue isn’t serious either.

Edit:

here’s the article

Hendrix Lapierre the ultimate draft wild card after injury-plagued season - TSN.ca

 

[Ripshot 43]

I thought i read somewhere that the concussions we’re mis-diagnosed and it had something to do with his spine...I could be thinking about the wrong guy though. Not that a spine issue isn’t serious either.

Edit:

here’s the article

Hendrix Lapierre the ultimate draft wild card after injury-plagued season - TSN.ca

That’s right, I did see that too. Still, we are dealing with a player who you have to decide if he is injury prone or not. I believe that is why we ended up with our boy Nico and for good reason.

 

[FooteBahl]

That’s right, I did see that too. Still, we are dealing with a player who you have to decide if he is injury prone or not. I believe that is why we ended up with our boy Nico and for good reason.

I don’t want to be Castron in two weeks...if he’s sitting there at 18, it’s going to be a difficult choice passing on a guy with star potential.

 

[Ripshot 43]

I don’t want to be Castron in two weeks...if he’s sitting there at 18, it’s going to be a difficult choice passing on a guy with star potential.

Exactly. I agree. I would have to do a lot of research to even take him at 20.

 

[My3Sons]

I don’t want to be Castron in two weeks...if he’s sitting there at 18, it’s going to be a difficult choice passing on a guy with star potential.

STI suggests that there are other players with very high upside and less risk available in that range.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I keep flipping between Drysdale and Sanderson. I feel we have depth on LD with Smith and all the defensive defense men we drafted. On RD we're definitely thin in the pipeline, but have some quality, especially if Smith is indeed a RD.

Ideally we'd pick up a 1LD and a few 2/3 RD to fill out the pipeline.

If there was any logical chance that both Drysdale and Sanderson would both be available at #7, this would be a legit argument. But with Anaheim drafting one slot ahead of the Devils, it's just not a realistic possibility.

Later in the draft, it's important not to understate that this is a thin draft for defensemen. What this means is that many defensemen will be drafted far earlier than probably warranted. The Devils will need to be careful to avoid the idea of drafting a defenseman for the sake of drafting a defenseman -- that's Bad Drafting 101. If the Devils leave the 2020 draft with 8 forwards and and only one defenseman, I'm fine with it, so long as they were the 9 best available players.

I've been highlighting some defensemen that have, for whatever reason, gone a bit under the radar. Brock Faber is a name you're probably sick of hearing from me. Viktor Persson and Ruben Rafkin are names you're soon to be sick of hearing. Eemil Viro and Luke Prokop are opposite players who are similarly undervalued. I have some late round super sleepers like Jake Boltmann, Jeremie Biakabutuka and Tyrel Bauer. But the Devils can simply not get caught up in drafting super-risky players with limited upside who have been rated far higher than their performance would dictate, just because of the position they play.

 

[My3Sons]

If there was any logical chance that both Drysdale and Sanderson would both be available at #7, this would be a legit argument. But with Anaheim drafting one slot ahead of the Devils, it's just not a realistic possibility.

Later in the draft, it's important not to understate that this is a thin draft for defensemen. What this means is that many defensemen will be drafted far earlier than probably warranted. The Devils will need to be careful to avoid the idea of drafting a defenseman for the sake of drafting a defenseman -- that's Bad Drafting 101. If the Devils leave the 2020 draft with 8 forwards and and only one defenseman, I'm fine with it, so long as they were the 9 best available players.

I've been highlighting some defensemen that have, for whatever reason, gone a bit under the radar. Brock Faber is a name you're probably sick of hearing from me. Viktor Persson and Ruben Rafkin are names you're soon to be sick of hearing. Eemil Viro and Luke Prokop are opposite players who are similarly undervalued. I have some late round super sleepers like Jake Boltmann, Jeremie Biakabutuka and Tyrel Bauer. But the Devils can simply not get caught up in drafting super-risky players with limited upside who have been rated far higher than their performance would dictate, just because of the position they play.

One of the guys who posts in the prospects forum released his list with Biakabutuka roughly around 100. I'd still talk to the uncle before I draft him.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Reading the prospects board and it looks like Lapierre is having a really good preseason, lots of fans hoping their GM will take a stab at him with a mid 1st, so might not make it to us at 18.

Ah, Hendrix Lapierre. Big, big risk. Big, big reward. I love the kid, he's so much fun to watch. I'm going to root for him no matter who drafts him. But again, I'd prefer that team not to be New Jersey.

The Devils are deep and talented enough with young, play-making centers that there is no need to go "all in" on one in the first round, especially when they have so many other needs.

I'd rather take a chance later in the draft on an undervalued C like Evan Vierling, who should be available in the 3rd round and maybe even in the 4th. Another nice under-the-radar center would be Roni Hirvonen, who would be mentioned quite often as a late first round pick if he were 3 inches taller and 40 pounds heavier -- but Hirvonen is a heck of a player who really impressed as one of the smallest and youngest players in the Finnish men's league last year. He's a very smart player who has a surprisingly solid 200-foot game and an intriguing skill set.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Wasn't Lapierre projected to go in the top-5 (or at least top-10) back in September? What happened?

I think I've written as much on Hendrix Lapierre as any player in this draft. Here's the Cliff's Notes: incredible playmaker. Simply incredible passing vision, no other way to describe it. I would say with confidence that Lapierre is the second-best playmaker in the draft after de facto #1 pick Alex Lafreniere. Also, Lapierre adds tremendous puck skills, high-end awareness and terrific skating. If that sounds like a top 10 pick, it should be.

Lapierre absolutely dominated last year's Hlinka-Gretzky tourney and rocketed onto everybody's preseason top 10 list. At that point, it was not weird at all to see him ranked above such centers as Rossi, Lundell and Zary.

Then, his draft-eligible season was absolutely devastated by injuries in the worst way possible. Two concussions (and rumors of a third), plus a serious back/neck injury limited him to less than 20 games for Chicoutimi. I think we can all agree that the #1 scary injury which will make scouts slowly back away from a player is "concussion". The only thing worse than that? "Multiple concussions". And the only injury which young players can suffer from which can be almost as recurring as concussions are back/neck injuries. So, even the biggest Lapierre fans (like myself) need to factor this stuff into their rankings of him.

In my preliminary draft rankings, I had Lapierre at #12 overall. I love this player's game so much that I just wanted to ignore the risk and give him the credit his immense talents warrant. But as I worked on my final list, I just kept thinking to myself -- "if you were an NHL GM, would you draft Lapierre this high, over Player X and Player Y, despite the injury concerns?" My answer kept being a resounding no, so I was forced to drop one of my favorite players into the early 20s.

It is important to note that Lapierre -- even without the injuries -- would not be ranked as high as centers Byfield, Stutzle and Rossi. He'd probably be a bit ahead of Lundell. He's not a perfect player -- his lack of a shot and his reticence to use it sometimes can make him predictable. Opposing defenses will back away from him on the power play, knowing that Lapierre is always, always looking to pass. But it's also important to note that Lapierre's playmaking ability is so good, that he can often beat you even if you know what it is he is trying to accomplish. This is an A-list talent with some bad luck in the injury department.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don’t want to be Castron in two weeks...if he’s sitting there at 18, it’s going to be a difficult choice passing on a guy with star potential.

Well, the other names I would like to present to you for #18 are Perreault and Gunler. You want star potential? Perreault is the most talented RW in the draft. His skating/shooting/vision combo is unreal -- better than even Holtz, Quinn and Jarvis. Gunler is not far behind, another simply stellar goal-scoring talent at RW.

Here, we're dealing with a pair of players where the problem is not beyond a team's control -- like injuries. I think they are just two players who need coaching, development, and maybe mentorship by some NHL veterans to "keep the fire burning" every shift , if you will. There is certainly some risk in forwards who seem disinterested in the 200-foot game in their draft eligible season, but these two are ridiculously talented scorers.

 

[StevenToddIves]

STI suggests that there are other players with very high upside and less risk available in that range.

I wrote about it just before. Here's my choice at #18, and Lapierre is not a factor for me with the #18 pick:

1) A future star winger without any red flags somehow slips, ie: Jarvis, Mercer, Amirov.
2) A star-potential scoring winger with consistency/two-way issues (both fixable): Perreault, Gunler
3) Askarov slips to #18, so why not take the future star goalie?

There's no #4 option for me, as -- mathematically -- one of those 6 players will be available at #18.

My choice for the #20 pick is exactly the same, as again mathematically, another one of those players should still be on the board. Although I would add a 4th/5th category, here:

4) Gritty winger with power game who can crash the crease for Jack Hughes, ie: Holloway, Reichel, Wiesblatt.
5) Trade down into the late first round and pick up a second-round pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

One of the guys who posts in the prospects forum released his list with Biakabutuka roughly around 100. I'd still talk to the uncle before I draft him.

Ooooooh -- can you give us the link?

I love Biakabutuka for the 6th/7th rounds. I thought I was the only guy on earth who was writing about him. I'd watch Val d'Or just to watch him play.

Biakabutuka is interesting in that he simply never had the opportunity to get people's attention. Pretty much his entire 2019 was marred by injuries, but nothing major. In January, he really started to put his game together and by February he was absolutely a force on the blueline. He's better when he simplifies his game, so he's never going to be a creative, first-pairing guy. But for a 7th round pick who projects to a 6'4-220 beast with very good skates and a bomb from the point? He's certainly got mid-pairing upside, and that's why it's weird to me that no one else is talking about him.

 

[RememberTheName]

Ooooooh -- can you give us the link?

I love Biakabutuka for the 6th/7th rounds. I thought I was the only guy on earth who was writing about him. I'd watch Val d'Or just to watch him play.

Biakabutuka is interesting in that he simply never had the opportunity to get people's attention. Pretty much his entire 2019 was marred by injuries, but nothing major. In January, he really started to put his game together and by February he was absolutely a force on the blueline. He's better when he simplifies his game, so he's never going to be a creative, first-pairing guy. But for a 7th round pick who projects to a 6'4-220 beast with very good skates and a bomb from the point? He's certainly got mid-pairing upside, and that's why it's weird to me that no one else is talking about him.

What a f***ing beautiful name that is. We should draft him just for that. And also to hopefully one day hear Dano try and say his name. That might be the day Dano dies.

 

[My3Sons]

I wrote about it just before. Here's my choice at #18, and Lapierre is not a factor for me with the #18 pick:

1) A future star winger without any red flags somehow slips, ie: Jarvis, Mercer, Amirov.
2) A star-potential scoring winger with consistency/two-way issues (both fixable): Perreault, Gunler
3) Askarov slips to #18, so why not take the future star goalie?

There's no #4 option for me, as -- mathematically -- one of those 6 players will be available at #18.

My choice for the #20 pick is exactly the same, as again mathematically, another one of those players should still be on the board. Although I would add a 4th/5th category, here:

4) Gritty winger with power game who can crash the crease for Jack Hughes, ie: Holloway, Reichel, Wiesblatt.
5) Trade down into the late first round and pick up a second-round pick.

For what it's worth I read just about all your prospect evaluations and follow ups. I notice trends in your descriptions and where you are consistent. Your discussion of Lapierre has been very balanced and fair all along. His shooting issue might sway me away from him even if his medical records check out ok. I don't doubt he's got many of the tools of a Barzal type player, but NJ has that sort of player in Hughes and I don't see Lapierre as a great complement to Nico or Jack based on your multiple evaluations. You've been pretty clear that there are multiple good options at 18 and 20 and they don't include Schneider. If you go back and look at what you've said, the guy who I'd look at very hard and interview the crap out of him and his family and friends and youth coaches and school teachers and kids on other teams is Perreault. Everything you say about him skill wise screams perfect fit to me. If he's a good kid and just needs a bit of maturity to me he seems a very easy pick at 18 or 20 if the three guys you have higher aren't there. As an aside, I'm not sure your descriptions and discussion of Amirov makes him a better choice than Perreault.

I'm ready for three forwards in the first round. I'm ready for at least one to be a scrappy high compete guy (maybe that's Rossi). I'm ready for one to be a high upside guy with an issue or two that are deemed fixable (maybe Perreault) and I'm ready for the best of the rest at 20 (maybe Holloway but Fitz seems to really like Foote for the Hughes shotgun rider so maybe they go for someone they see as meshing with Nico?).

Value players in rounds three four and five (Faber or Biakubatuka and the obligatory unicorn in one of the last two rounds (Vierling or that Russian guy from the MHL you just discovered).

Bring it on. In the immortal words of Michael Rooker.....

I'm Mary Poppins y'all!!

 

[My3Sons]

Ooooooh -- can you give us the link?

I love Biakabutuka for the 6th/7th rounds. I thought I was the only guy on earth who was writing about him. I'd watch Val d'Or just to watch him play.

Biakabutuka is interesting in that he simply never had the opportunity to get people's attention. Pretty much his entire 2019 was marred by injuries, but nothing major. In January, he really started to put his game together and by February he was absolutely a force on the blueline. He's better when he simplifies his game, so he's never going to be a creative, first-pairing guy. But for a 7th round pick who projects to a 6'4-220 beast with very good skates and a bomb from the point? He's certainly got mid-pairing upside, and that's why it's weird to me that no one else is talking about him.

Tryamkin's 2020 Final Draft Rankings Guide (Top 217 + Sleepers)

He has Biakabutuka at 117. Right in unicorn territory.