Salary Cap: 2020-21 Lightning Roster Discussion | Part 2

[Byrddog]

Don't see the RFA's going anywhere. The situation with Johnson could help us out actually, hopefully putting some more pressure on Sergachev/Cirelli/Cernak to take team-friendly deals now that we're getting more desperate.

Currently there are 13 UFA's under age 30 out there. It is pretty clear that just those players could eat up the remaining Cap for teams in the market to add. We are going to see a boat load of players either retire or have to find a home in Europe. This is going to bring real hockey trades to a standstill. In a week or so the rosters are going to be set.

One can twist and squirm just thinking that someone will trade for Johnson or Killer or some other player just to help us out. Well thats a fallacy. Now one thing would solve all of that if JBB really really really wants to keep those three he has an out he can put Kuch, Point and Vasi out there and move one of them that would go over like a turn in the punchbowl but thats his last option if he just has to keep the RFA's.

 

[God King Fudge]

If we move killer we don’t have to move Tony.

What’s wrong with people here

Oh word? You gonna fit in Serge and Cirelli in with just moving out Killorn?

Tampa has a shade under $3M cap right now with 12F and 4D under contract. You move Killorn that gets you $7.345.

You signing Cirelli and Serge for that?

 

[BeingTheThunder]

Frankly, I don't see Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak taking up more than $9 Million of cap space combined... that's top-end IMO. People expecting Sergachev to get an OS paying him $6.5+ Million AAV haven't really been paying attention. Some also forget that for long stretches last season, where all three were playing with their heads up their asses. Sure, they had plenty of times where they played well too. Extraordinarily well in some stretches but they weren't consistent enough to warrant major paydays. That inconsistency will cost them in these deals. Count on that.

 

[NatoGhost]

Frankly, I don't see Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak taking up more than $9 Million of cap space combined... that's top-end IMO. People expecting Sergachev to get an OS paying him $6.5+ Million AAV haven't really been paying attention. Some also forget that for long stretches last season, where all three were playing with their heads up their asses. Sure, they had plenty of times where they played well too. Extraordinarily well in some stretches but they weren't consistent enough to warrant major paydays. That inconsistency will cost them in these deals. Count on that.

I hope you're right. Serg had some big moments so I can see his argument somewhat. Cirelli wasn't great in the playoffs. I def don't think he should get over 4m on a bridge.

 

[Fabiobest]

1) Trade Killorn for a second rounder.
2) Build a pack with Johnson and this second round pick, and build a trade with Detroit: this pack and, in exchange a 6th rounder for TB.
3) Re-sign our RFAs.
4) Trade Coburn to have a cushin in our cap.

 

[Byrddog]

Frankly, I don't see Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak taking up more than $9 Million of cap space combined... that's top-end IMO. People expecting Sergachev to get an OS paying him $6.5+ Million AAV haven't really been paying attention. Some also forget that for long stretches last season, where all three were playing with their heads up their asses. Sure, they had plenty of times where they played well too. Extraordinarily well in some stretches but they weren't consistent enough to warrant major paydays. That inconsistency will cost them in these deals. Count on that.

The only one of the three that will get 3 mil or less is Chernak. But lets just imagine somehow that all three do take 3 mil x2. We have 12 forwards and 5 D under contract this assumes one forward has been moved out and we are at the cap. You still do not have a complete team. Then Next year you remain in deep doo doo losing 6 players that only free up a little over 8 mil to replace those players. And the following year Sergi, Cirelli, Cernak and Point all come due another contract. The Cap is not going to increase next year and if it does the following year it will be minimal. The bottom line is even moving Killorn, Johnson would only create more problems. We can not keep all 3 of these RFA's even for a year JBB could not fill out a team with ELC's because of being over the ccap much less look at any help at the trade deadline. The core of this team was locked up with NMC's We have what we have and need to do all that we can to remain competitive.

 

[Felonious Python]

I thought Barzal won the cup...

It was weird how on NHLN they kept showing clips of the Islanders clips against the Bolts to promote NHL 21 during either the draft or the opening of free agency. I can't quite remember which as they happened pretty close to each other and NHLN is pretty milquetoast.

Ovi's on the game's cover.

 

[BeingTheThunder]

The only one of the three that will get 3 mil or less is Chernak. But lets just imagine somehow that all three do take 3 mil x2. We have 12 forwards and 5 D under contract this assumes one forward has been moved out and we are at the cap. You still do not have a complete team. Then Next year you remain in deep doo doo losing 6 players that only free up a little over 8 mil to replace those players. And the following year Sergi, Cirelli, Cernak and Point all come due another contract. The Cap is not going to increase next year and if it does the following year it will be minimal. The bottom line is even moving Killorn, Johnson would only create more problems. We can not keep all 3 of these RFA's even for a year JBB could not fill out a team with ELC's because of being over the ccap much less look at any help at the trade deadline. The core of this team was locked up with NMC's We have what we have and need to do all that we can to remain competitive.

I'm sure JBB is working on a surprise move of some kind. Like trading McD or something to help give us some room. I trust him completely as he's proven to pretty much be a wizard... I just wish they would hurry up and do what they gotta do...lol... I am not a drama person... this is killin' me...

 

[These Are The Days]

What you are not considering is the fact that the teams that do have Cap left are teams Johnson, Killer, Palat, ect ect would waive to go to. Having been a season ticket holder for the Predators for years they are the lone team I think might entice one of them waiving for but they are also in the position of not being very competitive right now when it comes to the playoffs much less a deep run. Now the same list of teams that do have some Cap left know the position that Tampa and a few other teams are in and poaching one or all three of these young RFA's is on there radar. While they are unwilling to put an offersheet out there honestly they do not need too.

I felt going into this that we were going to lose one of the RFA's but now it looks likely we lose Sergi and Cirelli. Cernak is going to push what Cap is left even moving one of Johnson or Killer because in addition to Cernak we are going to need two more defensemen on the roster. It is entirely possible that we will lose all three but it is certain we lose at least one now.

I don't think we're gonna lose a single RFA brother. These guys stood buy and watched the Brayden Point saga. They've been hearing about this day for 3 years. I promise you every vet we have on this team is telling our RFA's that signing for cheap was the best decision they ever made in their lives. I'm pretty sure Patrick Maroon can attest that the only thing better than winning a Stanley Cup is winning 2 Stanley Cups. I'm more than willing to bet the talks between JFBB and every player has been cordial and polite -even with Johnson. There isn't a player agent in the world who would not advise every player we have to not remain patient and see how things shake out. They understand it's a business. Even Johnson ought to. God knows we bent the rules for him too.


The Lightning, the RFA's and the guys we have to say goodbye to all just sat in a bubble for however the hell long it was because of COVID and know a stagnant cap has forced decisions we otherwise would never have made.




Best news? We get hockey on New Year's Day if we're lucky. The wait isn't gonna drag like year's past. I personally advocate for a season start at about the 21st and an abbreviated 48 game schedule but then again I'm not in the NHLPA or owner's association.

 

[bov]

One of Johnson or Killorn should be enough to create the space we need. If you need an extra 500k-1M, maybe look at Paquette/McIlhinney/Coburn etc.

I think many will be surprised at the RFA contracts. Had Johnson been picked up right away, we may have been looking at bigger numbers for Sergachev/Cirelli/Cernak. Perhaps they'll be more willing to bite the bullet as others have done before them now that the options are more limited. TB management has done really well when staying patient in the offseason, don't see that changing here.

 

[These Are The Days]

I've been harping on it for a minute here on the main boards but it sounds like MB really pissed off Gallagher with the Josh Anderson signing. Talks have broken off. We could trade Killorn (who probably waives to go back home) and Paquette for like a 2nd and a prospect to supplement their losses if Gallagher has to be traded out.

And it's not like Johnson has nowhere to go. If you look at the teams with cap space it's guys like NSH, NYR, NJD, COL, FLA, BOS and LAK. If you trade him with $1 million retained they probably take Johnson off our hands and could just as easily arrange him to go to SEA. It beats the hell out of bus rides with the Crunch don't it?

 

[violaswallet]

One of Johnson or Killorn should be enough to create the space we need. If you need an extra 500k-1M, maybe look at Paquette/McIlhinney/Coburn etc.

I think many will be surprised at the RFA contracts. Had Johnson been picked up right away, we may have been looking at bigger numbers for Sergachev/Cirelli/Cernak. Perhaps they'll be more willing to bite the bullet as others have done before them now that the options are more limited. TB management has done really well when staying patient in the offseason, don't see that changing here.

I wonder if the RFAs would take a lower 1-2 year contract in order to get a bite out of a bigger apple post Covid?

 

[T REX]

Covid really fooked us. Just like the strike did last time.

There just isn't a lot of free cap space out there right now.

 

[Peacefool]

Reading this thread,seeing all this panic around rfas,Johnson ,Killorn. I said few days ago it all looks like Point situation. And yes someone are telling frustrated things,like we gonna lose some of rfa etc. But I don't feel any panic,like last year the only feeling I have is that I feel bored. I was so excited at draft and rfas opening,just to see what Tampa gonna do what moves,who we sign,how we gonne fix cap issue. And so many days nothing happens. And it looks like it will take a while until we gonna fix all our problems and its soooooo boooooring to waaaait,maaaaan!

 

[Zwui21]

Really need some news today, let's start moving at least Killorn and Coburn

 

[Zwui21]

Reading this thread,seeing all this panic around rfas,Johnson ,Killorn. I said few days ago it all looks like Point situation. And yes someone are telling frustrated things,like we gonna lose some of rfa etc. But I don't feel any panic,like last year the only feeling I have is that I feel bored. I was so excited at draft and rfas opening,just to see what Tampa gonna do what moves,who we sign,how we gonne fix cap issue. And so many days nothing happens. And it looks like it will take a while until we gonna fix all our problems and its soooooo boooooring to waaaait,maaaaan!

The problem is that JBB said himself that this time he would have acted quickly, because here the more the time passes, the more other teams deal qith their need. And we can't let that happen without adressing our situation

 

[Peacefool]

The problem is that JBB said himself that this time he would have acted quickly, because here the more the time passes, the more other teams deal qith their need. And we can't let that happen without adressing our situation

Agree,that's why I was excited to see whats gonna happen before draft and before rfas opening. And nothing happened excitement went away and boredom came hopefully we will get some good news soon.
Also I think that this year some of our AHL needs to step up,step up BIG. If some of then gets place in roster they need to play really good,if it is 2nd line dude need to score goals,3 Rd 4rd line dudes need to pkay hard,make less possible mistakes etc. Our chances for good season and back to back cup will also very depend on how AHLers will step up if they get chance.
Also what about Foote? Its like 2nd or 3rd year in a row when I hear that he is our best prospect. Is he ready to play on NHL level? Why if not? If he can take D spot in roster it would help us a lot

 

[DFC]

Currently there are 13 UFA's under age 30 out there. It is pretty clear that just those players could eat up the remaining Cap for teams in the market to add. We are going to see a boat load of players either retire or have to find a home in Europe. This is going to bring real hockey trades to a standstill. In a week or so the rosters are going to be set.

One can twist and squirm just thinking that someone will trade for Johnson or Killer or some other player just to help us out. Well thats a fallacy. Now one thing would solve all of that if JBB really really really wants to keep those three he has an out he can put Kuch, Point and Vasi out there and move one of them that would go over like a turn in the punchbowl but thats his last option if he just has to keep the RFA's.

Why would we move better players than the RFAs in order to keep the RFAs?

 

[Peacefool]

This "trade Kuch,Point,Stammer,Hedman,Vasy for cap' is really ridiculous. U just don't get rid off your young(!) best players just to keep rfa guys.
I still think and hope we will keep somehow all of rfas and fix cap issues. I believe in JFBB magic

 

[JTBF81]

I'm thinking more along the lines of:

Sergachev @ $3.5 million AAV
Cirelli @ $3.25 million AAV
Cernak @ $2.25 million AAV

In terms of real-world money, those are significant raises for these guys and I am thinking they're not getting as much as many think.
Or maybe I'm shrouded in a haze of wishful thinking here.

I agree with this line of thinking. In a normal situation where the cap went up 3 or so million, Serg at 4.5, Cireli around 4 and Cernak 2.5-3 would have made sense. At this point though, given the lack of money from most contending teams(and quite a few non contenders as well), it seems very possible that Serg could be looking at 3.5x2, Cirelli 3x2 and Cernak 2x2, if not lower. Moving Johnson and Paquette gets them very close with these numbers. If these contract numbers are in the ballpark of what JBB is willing to do, have to think he's looking at 1 of 2 options, either bite the bullet and do what he has to do to move Johnson and Killorn, or find a way to move one of Johnson/Killorn, plus both Paquette and Coburn. Unless the plan us to convince one or maybe two of the rfas to take a one year Labanc type deal, these seem to be the most realistic options.

 

[PJ817]

I did a capfriendly thingy:

trade Johnson plus picks in 2022 and 2023 to Detroit for a signed Yzerman lithe

trade Ceddy to Snarks for a pick, or a guitar, or a baby snark song

Sign: Sergie & Cernak for 3.75 each, sign Celery for 2.0; all for 2 years so they can be renewed with higher cap and presumably others falling away/off (Stammer, for instance)

Cap space? $45,000

 

[BeingTheThunder]

I did a capfriendly thingy:

trade Johnson plus picks in 2022 and 2023 to Detroit for a signed Yzerman lithe

trade Ceddy to Snarks for a pick, or a guitar, or a baby snark song

Sign: Sergie & Cernak for 3.75 each, sign Celery for 2.0; all for 2 years so they can be renewed with higher cap and presumably others falling away/off (Stammer, for instance)

Cap space? $45,000

Sorry, but there is no way in hell Cernak is getting 3.75. No way in hell he gets more than Cirelli... he's going to be around the 2-2.5 mark. I am pretty sure about that.

 

[JTBF81]

The only one of the three that will get 3 mil or less is Chernak. But lets just imagine somehow that all three do take 3 mil x2. We have 12 forwards and 5 D under contract this assumes one forward has been moved out and we are at the cap. You still do not have a complete team. Then Next year you remain in deep doo doo losing 6 players that only free up a little over 8 mil to replace those players. And the following year Sergi, Cirelli, Cernak and Point all come due another contract. The Cap is not going to increase next year and if it does the following year it will be minimal. The bottom line is even moving Killorn, Johnson would only create more problems. We can not keep all 3 of these RFA's even for a year JBB could not fill out a team with ELC's because of being over the ccap much less look at any help at the trade deadline. The core of this team was locked up with NMC's We have what we have and need to do all that we can to remain competitive.

You obviously haven't been paying much attention to contracts and team space lately if you think these guys are getting much, if anything, over 3 million. You are also the only person that thinks losing Johnson and Killorn vs losing 2 of the 3 rfas is a benefit to the team. Brisebo

Why would we move better players than the RFAs in order to keep the RFAs?

Yeah, I don't think he's ever had one good idea about how the Lightning should move forward. I usually just skip over anything he posts at this point.

 

[PJ817]

Sorry, but there is no way in hell Cernak is getting 3.75. No way in hell he gets more than Cirelli... he's going to be around the 2-2.5 mark. I am pretty sure about that.

as I said, I was playing even at those salaries, we're under budget by just moving Johnson + Ceddy

reason you have to swear?

 

[BeingTheThunder]

as I said, I was playing even at those salaries, we're under budget by just moving Johnson + Ceddy

reason you have to swear?

Swear? Where did I swear? No offense intended, I simply was emphasizing my belief that Cernak easily gets the lowest out of the 3.