Prospect Info: 2020 1st Rd Selection - #15 OA - LW Rodion Amirov (RUS) - 6'0", 177lbs Part II

[Welsh Maple Leaf]

Leafs' U25 Team

Nylander 24 ----- Matthews 23 ----- Marner 23
Robertson 19 ----- Hirvonen 18 ----- Amirov 19
Ovchinnikov 18 ----- Abramov 19 ----- Miettinen 19
Hallander 20 ----- Engvall 24 ----- Anderson 22

Sandin 20 ----- Niemela 18
Dermott 24 ----- Liljegren 21
Kokkonen 19 ----- Rindell 20

Akhtyamov 19
Scott 21​

I forget how young Engvall is

 

[zeke]

Leafs' U25 Team

Nylander 24 ----- Matthews 23 ----- Marner 23
Robertson 19 ----- Hirvonen 18 ----- Amirov 19
Ovchinnikov 18 ----- Abramov 19 ----- Miettinen 19
Hallander 20 ----- Engvall 24 ----- Anderson 22

Sandin 20 ----- Niemela 18
Dermott 24 ----- Liljegren 21
Kokkonen 19 ----- Rindell 20

Akhtyamov 19
Scott 21​

gonna change that up a bit.

Leafs' U25 Team

Robertson 19 ---- Matthews 23 ------ Marner 23
Amirov 19 ----- Nylander 24 --- Anderson 22
Miettinen 19 ---- Abramov 19 ----- Hirvonen 18
Hallander 20 ----- Abbruzzese 21 ----- Ovchinnikov 18

Sandin 20 ----- Niemela 18
Dermott 24 ----- Liljegren 21
Kokkonen 19 ----- Rindell 20

Akhtyamov 19
Scott 21​

 

[Lainehasaweirdface]

If a player is a consensus pick in the twenties, picking him at 15 is a stretch.

Except he wasn't a consensus pick in the 20s. Most scouting services had him ranked in the late teens, a few had him ranked late twenties.

 

[Fogelhund]

Except he wasn't a consensus pick in the 20s. Most scouting services had him ranked in the late teens, a few had him ranked late twenties.

Please refer to post #476, which shows he was...

 

[hotpaws]

Please refer to post #476, which shows he was...

as the poster you replied to rightly said there were many mocks that had him mid to late teens regardless of whether some mocks might have had him lower

but if your so hell bent trying to prove this is the be all and end all to rank prospects then the Leafs should taken either Zary or Mercer who were rated 2 - 3 spots higher than Amirov

 

[Fogelhund]

as the poster you replied to rightly said there were many mocks that had him mid to late teens regardless of whether some mocks might have had him lower

but if your so hell bent trying to prove this is the be all and end all to rank prospects then the Leafs should taken either Zary or Mercer who were rated 2 - 3 spots higher than Amirov

Who are these "many mocks"?

If someone wanted to argue, that perhaps we should have taken Zary or Mercer, based on an aggregate consensus of mocks/rankings, they'd have a much more compelling argument, over one for Schneider. That a player moves up, or down a couple of spots in the teens, is pretty normal. To pick a player ranked in the twenties, at our spot, to me, that variance is a stretch.

 

[Morbo]

Who are these "many mocks"?

don't hold your breath waiting for a list....

 

[Smif]

as the poster you replied to rightly said there were many mocks that had him mid to late teens regardless of whether some mocks might have had him lower

but if your so hell bent trying to prove this is the be all and end all to rank prospects then the Leafs should taken either Zary or Mercer who were rated 2 - 3 spots higher than Amirov

Big difference between a mock and a ranking.

 

[LeafChief]

as the poster you replied to rightly said there were many mocks that had him mid to late teens regardless of whether some mocks might have had him lower

but if your so hell bent trying to prove this is the be all and end all to rank prospects then the Leafs should taken either Zary or Mercer who were rated 2 - 3 spots higher than Amirov

Anyone and their mother can complete a mock draft.

I apologize on behalf of the organization that we didn't draft a Canadian.

 

[Legion34]

Except he wasn't a consensus pick in the 20s. Most scouting services had him ranked in the late teens, a few had him ranked late twenties.

Consensus is not unanimous. My understanding is that they averaged a bunch of lists and the consensus of that list was in the 20s

 

[hotpaws]

Anyone and their mother can complete a mock draft.

I apologize on behalf of the organization that we didn't draft a Canadian.

yup but i wasn't the one trying to use them to justify our selection , also i haven't said a negative word about the selection nor do i see few if any that do

i'm just saying taking one of the D wouldn't have been a reach at our pick , for some reason that triggers people

 

[kk87]

gonna change that up a bit.

Leafs' U25 Team

Robertson 19 ---- Matthews 23 ------ Marner 23
Amirov 19 ----- Nylander 24 --- Anderson 22
Miettinen 19 ---- Abramov 19 ----- Hirvonen 18
Hallander 20 ----- Abbruzzese 21 ----- Ovchinnikov 18

Sandin 20 ----- Niemela 18
Dermott 24 ----- Liljegren 21
Kokkonen 19 ----- Rindell 20

Akhtyamov 19
Scott 21​

Would you already have Akhtyamov above Woll and Scott?

 

[zeke]

Would you already have Akhtyamov above Woll and Scott?

yeah I don't think much of Woll and Scott tbh.

Though i like Scott a little bit.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

No points today, bust.

 

[OB34KNH]

No points today, bust.

Where is Amirov playing right now? KHL still?

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Where is Amirov playing right now? KHL still?

Yea

 

[hotpaws]

Who are these "many mocks"?

If someone wanted to argue, that perhaps we should have taken Zary or Mercer, based on an aggregate consensus of mocks/rankings, they'd have a much more compelling argument, over one for Schneider. That a player moves up, or down a couple of spots in the teens, is pretty normal. To pick a player ranked in the twenties, at our spot, to me, that variance is a stretch.

the 3 mocks from NHL.com, and Bob Mackenzie just off the top of my head

so selecting Amirov who was ranked 2/3 spots lower than other forwards is fine but taking a player who is ranked 3/4 spots lower Amirov is a reach ?

your a better poster than to try to use a preemptive excuse that it would have been a reach to select one of the 2 D to defend Dubas if they out perform Amirov

 

[Fogelhund]

the 3 mocks from NHL.com, and Bob Mackenzie just off the top of my head

so selecting Amirov who was ranked 2/3 spots lower than other forwards is fine but taking a player who is ranked 3/4 spots lower Amirov is a reach ?

your a better poster than to try to use a preemptive excuse that it would have been a reach to select one of the 2 D to defend Dubas if they out perform Amirov

Of course, the NHL.com and Bob Mackenzie mocks are used in the aggregate of multiple mocks/draft previews that I showed. It was literally an average of all of those, plus a bunch more.

We picked 15. Our player picked, in that aggregate consensus, was 17. Schneider was 21. Do I believe 2 < 6... of course. The further away from an aggregate consensus you are, the further you are... that's pretty simple.

This aggregate below, using many more mocks/drafts, shows a wider disparity.

2020 NHL Draft Aggregate

IMO, Sanderson at 5, when ranked around 10 is a reach.
To the same ends, Schneider at 15, when ranked on aggregate, 21, would have been a reach.

Two spots, or less, isn't a reach IMO.

It's not consensus.. that we can pull a few mocks, that have variances doesn't change anything... we average them out, and come up with a consensus, and I've provided two such averages.

Of 48 ranking/mocks... Amirov had a high of 7, low of 37 and was in 45 of 47 in the top 31. Schneider had a high of 7, low of 51, and placed in the top 31 of 33 of 47 rankings.

We picked the higher ranked guy, it was close to our pick range, and three of the next three teams picking, also agreed with us. You pick the best player available, and if you want to argue about Mercer vs, Amirov, that's a better argument.... Schneider is not.. he wasn't BPA, and six spots to me... is a stretch.

 

[hotpaws]

Of course, the NHL.com and Bob Mackenzie mocks are used in the aggregate of multiple mocks/draft previews that I showed. It was literally an average of all of those, plus a bunch more.

We picked 15. Our player picked, in that aggregate consensus, was 17. Schneider was 21. Do I believe 2 < 6... of course. The further away from an aggregate consensus you are, the further you are... that's pretty simple.

This aggregate below, using many more mocks/drafts, shows a wider disparity.

2020 NHL Draft Aggregate

IMO, Sanderson at 5, when ranked around 10 is a reach.
To the same ends, Schneider at 15, when ranked on aggregate, 21, would have been a reach.

Two spots, or less, isn't a reach IMO.

It's not consensus.. that we can pull a few mocks, that have variances doesn't change anything... we average them out, and come up with a consensus, and I've provided two such averages.

Of 48 ranking/mocks... Amirov had a high of 7, low of 37 and was in 45 of 47 in the top 31. Schneider had a high of 7, low of 51, and placed in the top 31 of 33 of 47 rankings.

We picked the higher ranked guy, it was close to our pick range, and three of the next three teams picking, also agreed with us. You pick the best player available, and if you want to argue about Mercer vs, Amirov, that's a better argument.... Schneider is not.. he wasn't BPA, and six spots to me... is a stretch.

did you read the link you provided ? did you notice that it said it included random nobody bloggers in their aggregate and they weighted them equally to Bob Mackenzie among others who draws his list from information he gets from NHL clubs ?

do you understand some random kid blogger who's sitting in his parents basement and pulling names out of his ass could post a mock that probably was used in your precious ''aggregate'' ?

the aggregate is pure crap and pretty much just a desperate attempt at a preemptive excuse to defend Dubas if one of the 2 highly ranked D on the board outperform Amirov

 

[sparxx87]

A Montreal Canadiens blogger, built an aggregate to defend Dubas? Now I've heard everything. I don't give a rats... about Dubas... I just find it hilarious that people are trying to defend their demand for Schneider, as a pick, when clearly it was a reach at our pick, as an attack on everything. An attack on mocks, and attack as if people are defending Dubas... All to defend their demand for Schneider... I mean call as spade a spade.

We won’t know who was a reach or who was the right pick for several years.

Mark Scheifele is a somewhat recent example of someone who was considered a reach on draft night. He wasn’t even considered a top 10 NA skater by central scouting (mock drafts had him in mid-late teens and even saw one in the twenties)

He was chosen 7th overall but it took several years to look like the right pick. They might have considered Sean Couturier but if they’d listened to rankings they would have ended up with Nathan Beaulieau, Douggie Hamilton, Sven Baertschi, Ryan Murphy etc.

 

[Fogelhund]

We won’t know who was a reach or who was the right pick for several years.

Mark Scheifele is a somewhat recent example of someone who was considered a reach on draft night. He wasn’t even considered a top 10 NA skater by central scouting (mock drafts had him in mid-late teens and even saw one in the twenties)

He was chosen 7th overall but it took several years to look like the right pick. They might have considered Sean Couturier but if they’d listened to rankings they would have ended up with Nathan Beaulieau, Douggie Hamilton, Sven Baertschi, Ryan Murphy etc.

I think we know what was a reach, or not on draft day, based upon known beliefs, and data at that time.

What we don't know, is if they were right or not. Many picks are far better than expected, and many are worse. As you say, we won't know who was right, or wrong for several years, but that doesn't change beliefs from draft day. Schneider could very well end up the best player of the 2020 draft.. probably not, but it could happen. Mock Drafts, and actual drafts get things wrong quite often... If a teams scouting group has a different opinion than the consensus, it's going to be called a reach... like Sanderson was, like Mukhamadullin... but maybe they'll be right.

 

[sparxx87]

I think we know what was a reach, or not on draft day, based upon known beliefs, and data at that time.

What we don't know, is if they were right or not. Many picks are far better than expected, and many are worse. As you say, we won't know who was right, or wrong for several years, but that doesn't change beliefs from draft day. Schneider could very well end up the best player of the 2020 draft.. probably not, but it could happen. Mock Drafts, and actual drafts get things wrong quite often... If a teams scouting group has a different opinion than the consensus, it's going to be called a reach... like Sanderson was, like Mukhamadullin... but maybe they'll be right.

But whose beliefs are we talking about? And are we worried about players that look like a reach on draft day, or the ones that look like reaches when the draft class hits their prime years? You’ll find quite a bit of variance from team to team on draft order, especially outside the top few picks. It’s impossible to know with any accuracy who had it right and who had it wrong right now. Only time will tell.

To me, the only bad decision would be picking a player based on someone else’s rankings. In the example I gave, Sven Baertschi and Ryan Murray were rated as top 10 picks so the beliefs of central scouting at the time look incredibly silly 10 years later. The Jets look like prophets, and the Lightning, who took Kucherov in the second round, are laughing at everyone.

 

[Judas Tavares]

50% of Leafs Nation threw a tantrum like this when Rodion was drafted.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Anyone and their mother can complete a mock draft.

I apologize on behalf of the organization that we didn't draft a Canadian.

Uhh...

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Uhh...

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Shhhhh let Don Cherry get some sleep. #RitchieOverNylander.