Prospect Info: 2020 1st Rd Selection - #15 OA - LW Rodion Amirov (RUS) - 6'0", 177lbs Part II

[Ropesman]

Drafting based on a teams needs right now is not a smart way to go IMO. This is not the NFL, outside of a few truly gifted players, most drafted players will not see an NHL roster for years. Whatever a teams needs are today may not be the same in 2,3,4 years time.

I believe taking the best player available is always the best option. Hitting on a draft pick is not exactly easy to do in the NHL, so further complicating that process by passing on the best available player in order to fill a “need” is a dangerous game to play.

Trading players happens in the NHL more so then most other professional sports (MLB might have more) so stockpiling talent and using it to fill needs is a great strategy. Amirov could very well be used in a trade to fill a need elsewhere in our lineup. He also could be valuable to us in terms of playing out his ELC when we have to move on from other pieces due to cap constraints.

 

[Fogelhund]

Amirov might be the better long term prospect but the leafs have needed a physical shut down D man on the right side for years now to replace Schenn who was drafted about 20 spots ahead of where he should’ve been.

However Amirov like many other 18 year olds struggled against tougher competition in the semis and bronze medal game. Denying that is silly.

You don't draft for need. As you suggest, Schenn was a stretch, and Schneider would have been too. We've drafted plenty of big guys... but they didn't work out.. .primarily under Hunter. As I've posted here before, we could use a Physical Shutdown guy...

 

[sparxx87]

We had schenn. We have Bogosian. Elite pick physical dmen who were far better prospects than Schneider.

And leafs fans still want more schenns and Bogosians.

I think the Leafs fans want more intensity and competitiveness from their players. Hard to watch them getting smacked while half the team looking like they don’t care.

Most don’t know much about Amirov but saw him checked out and disengaged when things weren’t going well. That’s pretty concerning. Did Dubas do his homework on the character of this player, or was the Corsi and xgf so good it didn’t matter?

Not sure why you bring up Schenn and Bogosian who struggle with mobility - did you not watch Schneider? Only time will tell, but if he becomes someone like Brent Seabrook as some project, Amirov better be a superstar.

The idea that Dubas has done well at the draft is so incredibly premature. Sandin was his first draft pick and hasn’t yet established himself as a full time NHL’er. It’ll be 6-10 years before we have any sort of clarity but many of you are in a hurry to hand Dubas a dub anyway.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

I think the Leafs fans want more intensity and competitiveness from their players. Hard to watch them getting smacked while half the team looking like they don’t care.

Most don’t know much about Amirov but saw him checked out and disengaged when things weren’t going well. That’s pretty concerning. Did Dubas do his homework on the character of this player, or was the Corsi and xgf so good it didn’t matter?

Not sure why you bring up Schenn and Bogosian who struggle with mobility - did you not watch Schneider? Only time will tell, but if he becomes someone like Brent Seabrook as some project, Amirov better be a superstar.

The idea that Dubas has done well at the draft is so incredibly premature. Sandin was his first draft pick and hasn’t yet established himself as a full time NHL’er. It’ll be 6-10 years before we have any sort of clarity but many of you are in a hurry to hand Dubas a dub anyway.

If the Leafs drafted based on Corsi and xgf then they wouldn't employ scouts... do you seriously think this is how their drafting process works?

And you're right, it's too early to declare that all our high end prospects will pan out... but in the case of Sandin and Robertson especially, no one can argue that they haven't seriously improved their stock. No GM wouldn't trade the 29th overall pick in the 2021 for Sandin straight up or the 53rd overall for Robertson. It's not hard to see why people are more bullish on these prospects compared to Liljegren, Rasanen, etc.

 

[hockeeyyy]

the leafs have needed a physical shut down D man on the right side for years now to replace Schenn who was drafted about 20 spots ahead of where he should’ve been.

Replace what? Terrible defence and abhorrent puck movement?

 

[Atomos2]

I'd rather gamble on the upside of a righthanded physical dman rather than a speedy winger if not just for the value. Defencemen are more valued around the league. Just look at what we got for Polak. The only way we win this is if Amirov ends up significantly better than Schnieder (which could happen). But a tie of any kind or similar calibre players becomes a win to the player in the higher valued position.

 

[sparxx87]

If the Leafs drafted based on Corsi and xgf then they wouldn't employ scouts... do you seriously think this is how their drafting process works?

And you're right, it's too early to declare that all our high end prospects will pan out... but in the case of Sandin and Robertson especially, no one can argue that they haven't seriously improved their stock. No GM wouldn't trade the 29th overall pick in the 2021 for Sandin straight up or the 53rd overall for Robertson. It's not hard to see why people are more bullish on these prospects compared to Liljegren, Rasanen, etc.

It was a sarcastic question, hence the question mark.

Yes, player stocks can rise and fall in the years after the draft but until they become a known NHL quantity, it’s all pretty meaningless. You’ll find numerous examples over the years of players that jumped a year or two later but never materialized, and probably a comparable amount that were just late bloomers... It’s just too early to tell with 19 and 20 year olds.

 

[Dekes For Days]

until they become a known NHL quantity, it’s all pretty meaningless.

Asset value is not meaningless.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I'd rather gamble on the upside of a righthanded physical dman rather than a speedy winger if not just for the value. Defencemen are more valued around the league. Just look at what we got for Polak. The only way we win this is if Amirov ends up significantly better than Schnieder (which could happen). But a tie of any kind or similar calibre players becomes a win to the player in the higher valued position.

Kapanen just returned the biggest value of the offseason even though multiple RHDs found new homes.

 

[meefer]

I am by no means a prospect expert, but from what little I know, we wasted a good number of picks the last few years gunning for the big, and got nowhere, while the past few drafts have seen our prospect pool improve significantly. If Amirov was seen as the best choice at 15 by the people who've boosted our pool, I'm for it. 44 KHL games, a reasonably successful WJ, a most valuable player in another tourney, a frame that could fill out to around 190 lbs, defensively sound, a skater, led his team in points, solid hockey IQ, and just turned 19 years of age...have a little faith folks, this kid is just beginning.

 

[sylejman]

What I noticed from Amirov during the wjc was that he plays the game very easy west, so you don't really get to see if he has elite speed. But there was one rush against Sweeden where he picked up the puck from his end and skated up ice at top speed and he was very fast I wondered why he doesn't use it more often. I think he plays the game at a level where he doesn't hurt his team defensively, but he has very high end talent and it will come out more as he gets stronger.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

It was a sarcastic question, hence the question mark.

Yes, player stocks can rise and fall in the years after the draft but until they become a known NHL quantity, it’s all pretty meaningless. You’ll find numerous examples over the years of players that jumped a year or two later but never materialized, and probably a comparable amount that were just late bloomers... It’s just too early to tell with 19 and 20 year olds.

My bad... I swear some people on this site actually think that's how Dubas drafts so it's hard to tell sometimes lol.

I agree, but it goes both ways, also too early to be criticising Dubas for not drafting Schneider. A player's stock rising post draft isn't a guarantee, BUT I think we can at least agree that it's more encouraging than a player's stock falling.

 

[meefer]

My bad... I swear some people on this site actually think that's how Dubas drafts so it's hard to tell sometimes lol.

I agree, but it goes both ways, also too early to be criticising Dubas for not drafting Schneider. A player's stock rising post draft isn't a guarantee, BUT I think we can at least agree that it's more encouraging than a player's stock falling.

fair point, and btw, you got chops on the keyboard kid ;-)

 

[Atomos2]

Kapanen just returned the biggest value of the offseason even though multiple RHDs found new homes.

But that was dependent on the circumstances...although I guess tbh would be involved in any trade discussion on value so you have a valid point.

I'd want to make a poll because I'm genuinely intrigued with this debate on their value, but the last thing I'd want is to give those biased uneducated trolls on the mainboards a voice in this.

 

[FlareKnight]

Drafting based on a teams needs right now is not a smart way to go IMO. This is not the NFL, outside of a few truly gifted players, most drafted players will not see an NHL roster for years. Whatever a teams needs are today may not be the same in 2,3,4 years time.

I believe taking the best player available is always the best option. Hitting on a draft pick is not exactly easy to do in the NHL, so further complicating that process by passing on the best available player in order to fill a “need” is a dangerous game to play.

Trading players happens in the NHL more so then most other professional sports (MLB might have more) so stockpiling talent and using it to fill needs is a great strategy. Amirov could very well be used in a trade to fill a need elsewhere in our lineup. He also could be valuable to us in terms of playing out his ELC when we have to move on from other pieces due to cap constraints.

I feel like BPA should be the right way to go and logically it makes sense. But as more time goes on I really start doubting it. It's great to get as much value for your picks as possible and try to limit your misses. But the whole premise demands that you get what you need for what you have in excess. And only really works if what you need is something that the other team doesn't consider irreplaceable. While if you just drafted what you needed yourself you'd already have it and wouldn't have to try and find someone willing to give it up.

Of course it's all more complicated and just trying to find what you need without being sure about it is often going to lead to swinging and missing. But still waiting to see if the BPA can lead to more than an above average draft record. If Amirov turns into a decent top 6 forward that's a good value all things considered. But if we're still left looking for needs to fill the holes on the roster then I just don't know. In the end, I don't have a big issue with the pick. He looked fine at the world juniors. But I really wonder if treating BPA as inescapably perfect is all that true.

 

[Martin Skoula]

But that was dependent on the circumstances...although I guess tbh would be involved in any trade discussion on value so you have a valid point.

I'd want to make a poll because I'm genuinely intrigued with this debate on their value, but the last thing I'd want is to give those biased uneducated trolls on the mainboards a voice in this.

I think high end RHDs are definitely more valuable still, but in the context of prospects you're going to be waiting for a D to establish himself a lot longer than a W already playing in a pro league.

I'd say Kapanen and Dermott were similar caliber prospects drafted around the same time, that's probably what you're looking at with Schneider vs Amirov. Long term maybe Dermott wipes the floor with Kapanen's value, but it's going to take at least another year or two to find out.

 

[Atomos2]

I think high end RHDs are definitely more valuable still, but in the context of prospects you're going to be waiting for a D to establish himself a lot longer than a W already playing in a pro league.

I'd say Kapanen and Dermott were similar caliber prospects drafted around the same time, that's probably what you're looking at with Schneider vs Amirov. Long term maybe Dermott wipes the floor with Kapanen's value, but it's going to take at least another year or two to find out.

Yea that's more along the lines I was thinking about. Because you could argue that maybe Kapanen's value was high but in a vacuum (I know nothing's ever really in a vacuum) an RHD in a similar contract situation or similar talent level, would've garnered more if in the same position.

With prospects its all about the gamble of upside. I just think imo a lot more things need to go right for Amirov than Schnieder (if picked at the same spot) before we can end up winning the value in that comparison over the long run. Especially when everyone of us can see the full impact Schneider's upside would have had on this organization.

 

[AvroArrow]

I really wanted Schneider but I still love the Amirov pick, he looks very promising. Like other posters mentioned, you don't draft for needs, just the BPA.

 

[Havoc]

I'd rather gamble on the upside of a righthanded physical dman rather than a speedy winger if not just for the value. Defencemen are more valued around the league. Just look at what we got for Polak. The only way we win this is if Amirov ends up significantly better than Schnieder (which could happen). But a tie of any kind or similar calibre players becomes a win to the player in the higher valued position.

My issue with Schneider is that his weaknesses are the stuff we need on the backend. He solves nothing in terms of winning the cup. We're going to pass on Amirov's guaranteed (as in out of the box) skillset just to hope Schneider becomes what he's not?

Doesn't seem like smart drafting to me.

 

[Menzinger]

Also frustrating that a guy has one subpar game (despite being his team's best player for a tournament) and that suddenly means the player lacks character: as others have mentioned you have to take the long view with prospects.

Would definitely agree that folks get too focused on current day team needs too much when thinking about prospects. Think about how different the Leafs D core was just 3 seasons ago from this one. Who knows what things look like in 2023

 

[Atomos2]

My issue with Schneider is that his weaknesses are the stuff we need on the backend. He solves nothing in terms of winning the cup. We're going to pass on Amirov's guaranteed (as in out of the box) skillset just to hope Schneider becomes what he's not?

Doesn't seem like smart drafting to me.

That's where player development comes into play which Dubas is super high on. And we know he has full faith in his player development department. So my issue with your argument is that with a focus on player development the Leafs staff can iron out Schnieder's deficiencies and get an effective player in a more desired position not just with the Leafs but desired to the rest of the league. And that would be if he's not panning out the way he's currently projected as.

Like I said earlier I would gladly concede if Amirov ends up significantly better than Schnieder. But I'm talking about looking at the other variables at a time when they're both similarly ranked question marks and asking to assess their future value if they develop similarly to how they are ranked now.

 

[Menzinger]

I think the Leafs fans want more intensity and competitiveness from their players. Hard to watch them getting smacked while half the team looking like they don’t care.

Most don’t know much about Amirov but saw him checked out and disengaged when things weren’t going well. That’s pretty concerning. Did Dubas do his homework on the character of this player, or was the Corsi and xgf so good it didn’t matter?

Not sure why you bring up Schenn and Bogosian who struggle with mobility - did you not watch Schneider? Only time will tell, but if he becomes someone like Brent Seabrook as some project, Amirov better be a superstar.

The idea that Dubas has done well at the draft is so incredibly premature. Sandin was his first draft pick and hasn’t yet established himself as a full time NHL’er. It’ll be 6-10 years before we have any sort of clarity but many of you are in a hurry to hand Dubas a dub anyway.

I dont really think this is at all true - you certainly don't have to wait until a guy is 27/28 to finally know what they are.

Prospect development, even among those who undergo booms during their development are still fairly traceable/observable over their post draft years. Guys who continue to look like busts will likely be busts. Those who continue to make strides have a higher chance and transforming into impact players.

So I dont buy this suggestion that all prospects remain the equal valued blank question marks

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Replace what? Terrible defence and abhorrent puck movement?

Yeah that post didn’t make any sense whatsoever. I didn’t realize anyone here actually missed Luke Schenn lol. Burke fleeced Philly. One of the good things he actually did while here.

 

[Lainehasaweirdface]

You don't draft for need. As you suggest, Schenn was a stretch, and Schneider would have been too. We've drafted plenty of big guys... but they didn't work out.. .primarily under Hunter. As I've posted here before, we could use a Physical Shutdown guy...

I love the Amirov pick. I'm glad we didn't draft a player 3 years away for a current need. But Schneider absolutely wouldn't have been a stretch at 15. He's not the schmelt people have made him out to be to argue with the Dubas haters. He's a good player and projects to be a great 2nd pairing guy.

 

[Fogelhund]

I love the Amirov pick. I'm glad we didn't draft a player 3 years away for a current need. But Schneider absolutely wouldn't have been a stretch at 15. He's not the schmelt people have made him out to be to argue with the Dubas haters. He's a good player and projects to be a great 2nd pairing guy.

If a player is a consensus pick in the twenties, picking him at 15 is a stretch.