Prospect Info: 2020 1st Rd Selection - #15 OA - LW Rodion Amirov (RUS) - 6'0", 177lbs Part II

[Fogelhund]

he wasn't a consensus pick in the 20's and many mocks had him ahead of Amirov

people can be happy we took Amirov without having to shit on Schneider or try to spin it like he would have been a reach at our pick

Using the following ranking systems...

Bob McKenzie
Craig Button
HockeyProspect.com
Corey Pronman
Scott Wheeler
Future Considerations
Chris Peter
EliteProspects.com
Will Scouching
McKeensHockey.com
The Hockey News
Draft Prospects

They aggregated them, and came up with how, on average, the consensus viewed the picks. On Average, of these 12 groups/individuals, which includes rankings aggregate of NHL scouts, Amirov was 15 and Schneider was 21. So, yes the aggregate had Schneider in the 20's... I'm sorry that doesn't fit your narrative, but facts be what they are. Fact is, Schneider would have been a reach at 15.

2020 EOTP Consensus Draft Rankings

RK	NAME	HT	WT	POSITION	TEAM	LEAGUE	AVG	DROP	RANGE
1	LAFRENIERE, ALEXIS	6' 1"	193	LEFT WING	RIMOUSKI	QMJHL	1.00	NA	0
2	BYFIELD, QUINTON	6' 4"	215	CENTER	SUDBURY	OHL	2.33	1.33	1
3	STUETZLE, TIM	6' 1"	187	LEFT WING	MANNHEIM	GERMANY	3.58	1.25	6
4	RAYMOND, LUCAS	5' 11"	170	LEFT WING	FROLUNDA	SWEDEN	5.08	1.50	6
5	PERFETTI, COLE	5' 10"	177	CENTER	SAGINAW	OHL	6.00	0.92	5
6	ROSSI, MARCO	5' 9"	183	CENTER	OTTAWA	OHL	6.17	0.17	6
7	DRYSDALE, JAMIE	5' 11"	175	DEFENSEMAN	ERIE	OHL	6.50	0.33	8
8	HOLTZ, ALEXANDER	6' 0"	192	RIGHT WING	DJURGARDEN	SWEDEN	8.08	1.58	9
9	ASKAROV, IAROSLAV	6' 3"	176	GOALIE	NEVA ST. PETERSBURG	RUSSIA-2	9.55	1.46	5
10	SANDERSON, JAKE	6' 2"	185	DEFENSEMAN	USA U-18	NTDP	10.08	0.54	12
11	QUINN, JACK	6' 0"	176	RIGHT WING	OTTAWA	OHL	12.92	2.83	16
12	LUNDELL, ANTON	6' 1"	185	CENTER	HIFK	FINLAND	13.33	0.42	17
13	JARVIS, SETH	5' 10"	175	CENTER	PORTLAND	WHL	13.67	0.33	13
14	MERCER, DAWSON	6' 0"	180	CENTER	CHICOUTIMI	QMJHL	15.50	1.83	7
15	ZARY, CONNOR	6' 0"	178	CENTER	KAMLOOPS	WHL	17.50	2.00	15
16	HOLLOWAY, DYLAN	6' 0"	203	CENTER	WISCONSIN	BIG10	17.92	0.42	16
17	AMIROV, RODION	6' 0"	177	LEFT WING	UFA	RUSSIA	18.67	0.75	19
18	BOURQUE, MAVRIK	5' 10"	178	CENTER	SHAWINIGAN	QMJHL	21.33	2.67	16
19	LAPIERRE, HENDRIX	6' 0"	179	CENTER	CHICOUTIMI	QMJHL	23.08	1.75	20
20	GUHLE, KAIDEN	6' 2"	186	DEFENSEMAN	PRINCE ALBERT	WHL	23.42	0.33	24
21	SCHNEIDER, BRADEN	6' 2"	202	DEFENSEMAN	BRANDON	WHL	23.42	0.00	28
22	PERREAULT, JACOB	5' 11"	192	RIGHT WING	SARNIA	OHL	24.17	0.75	23
23	GUNLER, NOEL	6' 2"	176	RIGHT WING	LULEA	SWEDEN	24.17	0.00	52
24	BRISSON, BRENDAN	5' 11"	179	CENTER	CHICAGO	USHL	25.17	1.00	26
25	MYSAK, JAN	5' 10"	175	CENTER	HAMILTON	OHL	25.50	0.33	22
26	PETERKA, JOHN-JASON	5' 11"	192	RIGHT WING	MUNCHEN	GERMANY	26.58	1.08	26
27	REICHEL, LUKAS	6' 0"	170	LEFT WING	EISBAREN BERLIN	GERMANY	28.67	2.08	28
28	FOERSTER, TYSON	6' 2"	194	RIGHT WING	BARRIE	OHL	31.33	2.67	31
29	WALLINDER, WILLIAM	6' 4"	191	DEFENSEMAN	MODO JR.	SWEDEN-JR.	35.17	3.83	43
30	BORDELEAU, THOMAS	5' 10"	175	CENTER	USA U-18	NTDP	36.25	1.08	28
31	GRANS, HELGE	6' 2"	206	DEFENSEMAN	MALMO JR.	SWEDEN-JR.	36.25	0.00	50
32	POIRIER, JEREMIE	6' 0"	196	DEFENSEMAN	SAINT JOHN	QMJHL	39.08	2.83	76
33	O'ROURKE, RYAN	6' 0"	178	DEFENSEMAN	SAULT STE. MARIE	OHL	39.58	0.50	39
34	WIESBLATT, OZZY	5' 10"	183	RIGHT WING	PRINCE ALBERT	WHL	41.08	1.50	49
35	KHUSNUTDINOV, MARAT	5' 11"	176	CENTER	SKA ST. PETERSBURG 2	RUSSIA-JR.	41.75	0.67	89
36	GREIG, RIDLY	5' 11"	163	CENTER	BRANDON	WHL	42.00	0.25	70
37	NIEMELA, TOPI	5' 10"	156	DEFENSEMAN	KARPAT	FINLAND	43.58	1.58	36
38	HIRVONEN, RONI	5' 9"	164	CENTER	ASSAT	FINLAND	44.25	0.67	60
39	ANDRAE, EMIL	5' 8"	181	DEFENSEMAN	HV 71 JR.	SWEDEN-JR.	46.33	2.08	46
40	BARRON, JUSTIN	6' 2"	195	DEFENSEMAN	HALIFAX	QMJHL	46.50	0.17	85
41	SMILANIC, TY	6' 1"	175	CENTER	USA U-18	NTDP	47.42	0.92	48
42	GUSHCHIN, DANIL	5' 8"	165	LEFT WING	MUSKEGON	USHL	50.58	3.17	60
43	PONOMAREV, VASILIY	5' 10"	180	CENTER	SHAWINIGAN	QMJHL	50.67	0.08	53
44	CORMIER, LUKAS	5' 10"	180	DEFENSEMAN	CHARLOTTETOWN	QMJHL	50.67	0.00	95
45	NEIGHBOURS, JAKE	6' 0"	195	LEFT WING	EDMONTON	WHL	51.33	0.67	116
46	COLANGELO, SAM	6' 2"	205	RIGHT WING	CHICAGO	USHL	51.58	0.25	51
47	FOUDY, JEAN-LUC	5' 11"	177	CENTER	WINDSOR	OHL	52.58	1.00	64
48	SOURDIF, JUSTIN	5' 11"	173	RIGHT WING	VANCOUVER	WHL	55.00	2.42	34
49	NYBECK, ZION	5' 6"	182	LEFT WING	HV 71 JR.	SWEDEN-JR.	55.33	0.33	74
50	SIMONTAIVAL, KASPER	5' 9"	177	RIGHT WING	TAPPARA JR.	FINLAND-JR.	55.92	0.58	69

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Yea you take BPA in the first round, especially the top 15. I hope we never have a GM that thinks differently.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

it's like some of our fans feel the need to make a preemptive excuse just in case Schneider outperforms Amirov so Dubie doesn't take any criticism for some reason and they've decided that they'd go with he'd be a reach at our pick

I wouldn't have had an issue with either Amirov or Schneider tbh. Both are good prospects. Neither would have been a reach at 15. It's way too early to be thinking this hard over that pick.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Yea you take BPA in the first round, especially the top 15. I hope we never have a GM that thinks differently.

Fans will never be happy with what we have. whenever I spin the BPA approach I usually get back Best Defenseman Available lol

 

[RoadWarrior]

You don't draft for need. As you suggest, Schenn was a stretch, and Schneider would have been too. We've drafted plenty of big guys... but they didn't work out.. .primarily under Hunter. As I've posted here before, we could use a Physical Shutdown guy...

In the past I would’ve said don’t draft for need but with the ultra tight salary cap restricting free agent signings or trades the only way you can fill some gaps in the system is through the draft with players on ELC’s. Good luck trading for top prospects. In this environment it won’t happen.

Hunter to my surprise wasn’t a good scout of talent. It became evident that the reason for his success in London was the US connections he established recruiting guys like Dvorak and Tkachuk etc.

Big guys can easily dominate junior against their underdeveloped peers but against men they lose that size and strength advantage.

Schneider though has a much higher hockey IQ and defensive acumen compared with most other prospects. He has some issues with his agility but his straight line skating is very good and he’s decent in transition.

I think Amirov as long as he keeps getting ice time in the KHL has a chance to develop into a good two way player but as a rule of thumb wingers are easier to find than RHD.

In this instance I would’ve taken the RHD.

Thankfully Dubas perhaps recognizing team needs grabbed right shooting Niemela in the third round. He looks like a solid player.

 

[Stigma]

I wouldn't have had an issue with either Amirov or Schneider tbh. Both are good prospects. Neither would have been a reach at 15. It's way too early to be thinking this hard over that pick.

Same. Is there room in here for people who like both prospects? LOL

All I'm going to say is, yes, support your Leafs prospects and don't obsess over other team's prospects. That said, don't get too attached to Leaf prospects. I got attached to Bracco and was so annoyed with the "we could have had Konecny" comments that went on for 5 years on this forum. Looking back, maybe I was mad because I knew they were right. LOL But, annoying as those comments were, my blood pressure would have been much better off if I didn't invest so much energy in Bracco.

 

[The Podium]

In the past I would’ve said don’t draft for need but with the ultra tight salary cap restricting free agent signings or trades the only way you can fill some gaps in the system is through the draft with players on ELC’s. Good luck trading for top prospects. In this environment it won’t happen.

This kind of contradicts logic. If you need to draft players that can contribute on their ELC in the near future while the cap is tight, than they should be drafting BPA that is close to NHL ready. If they pick a defensive D, which tend to take the longest to develop, than you miss the current window.

 

[hullsy47]

he wasn't a consensus pick in the 20's and many mocks had him ahead of Amirov

people can be happy we took Amirov without having to shit on Schneider or try to spin it like he would have been a reach at our pick

We got neimela .

 

[RoadWarrior]

This kind of contradicts logic. If you need to draft players that can contribute on their ELC in the near future while the cap is tight, than they should be drafting BPA that is close to NHL ready. If they pick a defensive D, which tend to take the longest to develop, than you miss the current window.

Schneider is more ready than Amirov who is physically immature.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Schneider is more ready than Amirov who is physically immature.

One of them is playing middle-6 minutes in the 2nd best professional league in the world, the other one is going to play 24 WHL games in a calendar year post-draft. That's not even taking into account how much more learning a defensive D is going to need to do at the AHL and NHL level to be passable defensively once he discovers that he can't push around 16 year olds because he's got half a foot and 30 pounds on them. Amirov has already shown he can find space with professional adults trying to take it away.

 

[Menzinger]

One of them is playing middle-6 minutes in the 2nd best professional league in the world, the other one is going to play 24 WHL games in a calendar year post-draft. That's not even taking into account how much more learning a defensive D is going to need to do at the AHL and NHL level to be passable defensively once he discovers that he can't push around 16 year olds because he's got half a foot and 30 pounds on them. Amirov has already shown he can find space with professional adults trying to take it away.

Ifs the problem with mixing up raw size for development. Amirov clearly needs more time to cook, but he's also shown to be able to play with men

 

[HellasLEAF]

Dubas has made some good picks for us but this is still the guy that looked right at Travis Konecny and said no thanks and traded down. He has an arrogance about him, that he knows better. I think most of Leafs nation would have been very happy with that pick and as he was projected in that spot, no one would question it but he decided to do it anyway. It smacks of confidence yes, but a hint of arrogance as well.

I think it's fair to say at this point he was wrong in that decision, unless Dermott continues to develop further into a top 4 dman. Bracco I don't see in a Leaf sweater and have no idea where he is on depth chart.

If Schneider was taken right after us there should be more questions but he was instead taken 4 picks later. A C, a LW and a Dman were all taken before him. I don't think that means anything at this point but it's noteworthy.

I agree with whomever said Amirov must be much better than Schneider for Dubas to have been proven correct. Anything less and imo, the value of a RH physical shutdown dman could outweigh it..

 

[GBLeaf]

Show me a GM who hasn't made a poor decision. I don't think we can judge Dubas from him not selecting Konecny.

 

[JSn0w93]

Lots of people also don't remember that Konecny was a very risky pick at the time as his injury history was a disaster. Luckily for the Flyers the risk paid off, but frankly many teams besides us balked at his injury history, because he was a top 10 talent otherwise.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You should probably read the conversation. I said 6-10 and specifically mention 10 as an extreme example. Taking that extreme example and turning it to ‘pushing 30’ is either poor reading comprehension, or a deliberate attempt to misrepresent what I’d said. Either way, I’d expect better from a moderator.

You asked where he got 30 from, and I addressed that directly, because it was obvious. You cited an head-scratching range and got called out for it. Accept it.

I pointed out how silly it is to try and make determinations or award victories for a draft that won’t be clear for several years. I then used Dermott as an example of someone whose now D+6 and still very much an unknown NHL commodity.

No one cares about your pointless dermott example. everyone knows you have to wait a long time to know how a players career shapes up. This point isn’t interesting or relevant and it just shows how elementary your thought process is here among people having regular prospect discussion in a prospect’s d+1.

You also said what is important is nhl commodity value, which IS a good point, because it’s exactly the terms basically everyone here is discussing to begin with: many prospects drafted by dubas are now worth more than the value of their picks at their draft positions based on their d+1 play.

If you want to take issue with common sense, find someone else to engage with.

blah blah personal insults blah blah. You played discussion police and got called out for it. Swallow your pride, take your ball and go home without telling people they don’t have common sense.

 

[HellasLEAF]

What? Hunter was in charge of making the picks. Dubas was there to make trades. Blaming Dubas for missing out on Konecny is wrong.

I thought was Dubas stated strategy to be trading down that draft to acquire more pics no? If this is not correct as I remember I dunno could be mistaken.

 

[HellasLEAF]

Show me a GM who hasn't made a poor decision. I don't think we can judge Dubas from him not selecting Konecny.

Sandin was a fantastic pick. He has been 'mostly' good at the draft table imo.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I thought was Dubas stated strategy to be trading down that draft to acquire more pics no? If this is not correct as I remember I dunno could be mistaken.

I'm not sure but it might have been a decision shared to trade down. I'm a bit more upset at not drafting Aho, but thems the breaks sometimes.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I don't think he's denying that we have good prospects, a lot of our picks are tracking VERY well, but we just need to wait until they show what they are at the NHL level before we officially declare Dubas a draft king which is very fair imo.

Nobody has declared him a "draft king". Fans of an NHL team are allowed to be happy when their prospects are doing well. Fans of an NHL team are allowed to acknowledge the good drafting that a GM has done, when a ton of their prospects are trending very well and have increased their value. You don't need to wait for 6-10 years, or even for them to make the NHL. They benefit the Toronto Maple Leafs in the present. We have increased our asset value, and thus have more options.

 

[Dayjobdave]

Maybe there should be a draft strategy thread to debate who should have been picked. Then prospect threads could talk about the prospect.

 

[Ropesman]

I feel like BPA should be the right way to go and logically it makes sense. But as more time goes on I really start doubting it. It's great to get as much value for your picks as possible and try to limit your misses. But the whole premise demands that you get what you need for what you have in excess. And only really works if what you need is something that the other team doesn't consider irreplaceable. While if you just drafted what you needed yourself you'd already have it and wouldn't have to try and find someone willing to give it up.

Of course it's all more complicated and just trying to find what you need without being sure about it is often going to lead to swinging and missing. But still waiting to see if the BPA can lead to more than an above average draft record. If Amirov turns into a decent top 6 forward that's a good value all things considered. But if we're still left looking for needs to fill the holes on the roster then I just don't know. In the end, I don't have a big issue with the pick. He looked fine at the world juniors. But I really wonder if treating BPA as inescapably perfect is all that true.

Great points.

Either way you look at it has its flaws obviously. Like you said though “reaching” to fill a need could lead to more misses so I guess IMO limiting misses will lead to less steps taken backwards by your organization as a whole.

 

[LeafChief]

Came here to see if there was an update on Amirov returning to the KHL an unsurprisingly this thread has devolved into a cry fest about the Leafs drafting skilled players. How dare they!

 

[Twine Tickler]

Came here to see if there was an update on Amirov returning to the KHL an unsurprisingly this thread has devolved into a cry fest about the Leafs drafting skilled players. How dare they!

I agree. Amirov looks like a very solid player. I Really don’t care who we could of had instead at this point. None of these kids that were drafted after him are going to be in the NHL this year anyways, and if sandin/liljegren/Dermott and Robertson can’t make our team right now, how was anyone at 15OA going to?..so it’s really not something I am concerned with. I am however interested in Rodian’s development. I hope he returns to play and lights it up just to shut this board up lol

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Lots of people also don't remember that Konecny was a very risky pick at the time as his injury history was a disaster. Luckily for the Flyers the risk paid off, but frankly many teams besides us balked at his injury history, because he was a top 10 talent otherwise.

Even at that, it took him 5 years to match Nylander's first year.

 

[zeke]

Leafs' U25 Team

Nylander 24 ----- Matthews 23 ----- Marner 23
Robertson 19 ----- Hirvonen 18 ----- Amirov 19
Ovchinnikov 18 ----- Abramov 19 ----- Miettinen 19
Hallander 20 ----- Engvall 24 ----- Anderson 22

Sandin 20 ----- Niemela 18
Dermott 24 ----- Liljegren 21
Kokkonen 19 ----- Rindell 20

Akhtyamov 19
Scott 21​