2019 Training Camp Thread - Pride and Passion

[geehaad]

Interesting stuff within Dom's article:

• "Haydn Fleury, who had extraordinary numbers last season", but his GSVA was -0.1. I wonder where the dissonance lies.
• "There needs to be a bit more care placed in the team’s own end to minimize the few pitfalls of having such an offensively inclined blue line. That the largest culprit on defense, Calvin de Haan, is gone". Calvin de Haan was the weak link, statistically? Our eye test would tell us that Faulk contributed to any deficiency CdH exhibited...but still, if he was the statistical weak link, I wasn't aware of it.
  
• Nowhere is TvR mentioned, especially in the Projection Breakdown. His injury isn't supposed to keep him out but a coupla months, so when doing a projection of this year's team, it's odd to exclude him.
• Projection Breakdown QoC metric: that's "quality of competition", yes? If so, it's curious that Slavin's is a negative number, and holy cow look at Gardiner's. No wonder fans complained about "misjakes"...he was thrown to the wolves with Zaitsev.
• McGinn's numbers: bad Play-Driving against a negative QoC looks...bad, right?
• It will be interesting to see if the bad finishing metrics for Martinook, McGinn, and Wallmark as third-line players last year will improve this year as they move down to the fourth line.

 

[emptyNedder]

Interesting comparisons from The Atlantic ranking:
According to the model Aho's value is equal to Barkov and Seguin, better than Scheifele, Backstrom, and Malkin.
Jordan Staal's value as a 2C is the same as Nugent-Hopkins and more than Trochek.
Teravainen's value is equal to Landeskog.
Svechnikov has value equal to Jack Hughes—both have more value than Laine.

As far as D—Dom mentioned in one of the original write-ups several years ago that his model places more value on goal scoring and point production. Would any of us seriously argue that Hamilton is the team's most valuable defender? Or that both Hamilton and Gardiner are more valuable than Doughty?

I love models and tend to think they do a better job than other ways of valuing athletes—eye test, scouting, "expert" opinion. However, I think Dom's model is skewed when it comes to D-men.
Finally, Corey Sznajder does something similar (pretty sure someone posted it here but I can't find it) and had the Canes around 90 points. I would be interested in if the models differ greatly for specific players or if there some team factor that Sznajder uses.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Interesting article. I hope the Canes don't read it.

 

[zman77]

Julien Gauthier
Julien Gauthier, who dressed in his third straight exhibition game, continues to
draw praise for his performance.
"He's big, he's strong and he's fast," McGinn said of his linemate. "He took away their time and space, and they had to force a play. He's a big, strong kid, and he'll only get better in time."
Gauthier nearly netted a breakaway goal in the second period when he tried to slip a backhand past Samsonov, but the Caps' goalie stood strong with his right pad. The Canes' 21st overall pick from 2016 made his physical presence felt in the first period when he shouldered an unsuspecting Shane Gersich in open ice.
"He was probably the one guy who actually looked like there was something going on," Brind'Amour said. "Good for him."
"He's played hard in these games, and that's why we keep giving him opportunities."
Earn it? Gauthier is making a strong case.
"He's probably been our best player," Brind'Amour said. "Of the guys we've been looking at, he's probably done the most."
Preseason Recap: Canes Fall in Washington

 

[zman77]

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Interesting stuff within Dom's article:

• "Haydn Fleury, who had extraordinary numbers last season", but his GSVA was -0.1. I wonder where the dissonance lies.

Probably because he was taking prior seasons to account, back when Fleury was young and below-average. His GSVA projections take into account performances over the past 3 seasons, IIRC.

 

[robbieberns]

Gauthier’s preseason is precisely why people were saying it’s to early to pencil Necas into the opening day line up.

 

[Lempo]

Gauthier’s preseason is precisely why people were saying it’s to early to pencil Necas into the opening day line up.

We wanted to believe goddamnit!

 

[robbieberns]

We wanted to believe goddamnit!

Don’t get it twisted, I was firmly in the group being told off for assuming he’d make it.

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

Potential top 10 team in the league.
Calder Cup winning minor league.
Potential best defense in the league.
Offseason additions.
Svechnikov's growth.
Necas/Goat callup.
Top ten prospects pool.

It's been well over four hours. Should I call my doctor?

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

you think we get cuts before the Nashville games?

 

[raynman]

Gauthier’s preseason is precisely why people were saying it’s to early to pencil Necas into the opening day line up.

To be fair to Necas he’s been getting better with each game.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

How has Nedejlkovic looked so far? Will he be on the main roster this year?

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Potential 10 team in the league.
Calder Cup winning minor league.
Potential best defense in the league.
Offseason additions.
Svechnikov's growth.
Necas/Goat callup.
Top ten prospects pool.

It's been well over four hours. Should I call my doctor?

I just got your fervent message.

Doctor's recommendation: tomorrow night's Ottawa/Vancouver preseason game.

 

[robbieberns]

To be fair to Necas he’s been getting better with each game.

I don’t even think Necas has been bad per se, more so we’ve kind of found ourselves in a Gauthier v Necas fight for who starts the season with Foegele and Haula, a fight that Gauthier is clearly winning 3 games in.

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

I just got your fervent message.

Doctor's recommendation: tomorrow night's Ottawa/Vancouver preseason game.

Will need Marley Drug after that doc.

 

[raynman]

I don’t even think Necas has been bad per se, more so we’ve kind of found ourselves in a Gauthier v Necas fight for who starts the season with Foegele and Haula, a fight that Gauthier is clearly winning 3 games in.

I agree. Shoot even though there’s a very small sample size Gauthier has looked better than Foegele imo

 

[AD Skinner]

Potential 10 team in the league.
Calder Cup winning minor league.
Potential best defense in the league.
Offseason additions.
Svechnikov's growth.
Necas/Goat callup.
Top ten prospects pool.

It's been well over four hours. Should I call my doctor?

"Just call more ladies!"

Lots of wisdom in that movie

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

I agree. Shoot even though there’s a very small sample size Gauthier has looked better than Foegele imo

Foegele was pretty much invisible last year until the playoffs. Who knows which version we’ll see now.

 

[The Jerk Store]

Potential 10 team in the league.
Calder Cup winning minor league.
Potential best defense in the league.
Offseason additions.
Svechnikov's growth.
Necas/Goat callup.
Top ten prospects pool.

Using Hurricanes math, the sum of all of these pieces adds up to us not making the playoffs.

 

[UncMike]

Apparently Booth and Helvig were sent down today. Yes, it's no surprise.

Has Charlotte's camp started yet?
Will there be a separate thread for it?

 

[UncMike]

Apparently Booth and Helvig were sent down today. Yes, it's no surprise.

Has Charlotte's camp started yet?
Will there be a separate thread for it?

 

[geehaad]

Has Charlotte's camp started yet?
Will there be a separate thread for it?

I don’t believe there’s been a thread in the past, but we’ve had a generic Checkers thread every year.

 

[tarheelhockey]

• Nowhere is TvR mentioned, especially in the Projection Breakdown. His injury isn't supposed to keep him out but a coupla months, so when doing a projection of this year's team, it's odd to exclude him

TVR’s mentioned in one super-important context: that if Faulk is destined to play limited, soft minutes on the 3rd pairing, then it’s an inefficiency to keep him over TVR. In other words, the model shows that we should trade Faulk ASAP because he’s not that much of an improvement over TVR for that bottom-pair role.

Gauthier’s preseason is precisely why people were saying it’s to early to pencil Necas into the opening day line up.

The tricky thing is which one of Gauthier and Necas is more valuable when the scoring touch goes cold. I’m loving what Gauthier is doing right now, but is he a guy who can play top-9 minutes where his main contribution is forechecking and defense? Is Necas? It’s a weird situation, because we know neither of this guys is likely to score a ton of points as a rookie.

Foegele was pretty much invisible last year until the playoffs. Who knows which version we’ll see now.

Remember, he started off red-hot much like Gauthier now.

 

[HisIceness]

How has Nedejlkovic looked so far? Will he be on the main roster this year?

He had a shutout in the period and a half that he played so far.

Main roster? Well it's probably down to him and Reimer. Who wins that job is still up in the air.