Pre-Game Talk: 2019 NHL Draft, Pt. V: Got your ticket? (Mod note in pinned post)

[GPNuck]

if theres even a remote chance of getting Leason with our 2nd rounder we have to take it, but I think he's long gone by that time

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

So, being in the fringe elite bracket..Would you say that the Canucks player at #10 will most likely top out as 2nd line player?...or a 2nd pairing D..?

I mean it depends on the player and their growth. The names of the brackets are quite irrelevant other than how it popped into my mind as I separated them by "Okay these guys I would put above these guys."

My 'druthers' for the Canucks at 10 would be to take any of:

Elite Bracket:
1. Jack Hughes, 5'10, C - NTDP
2. Kaapo Kakko, 6'2, RW - TPS (Finland)
Semi-Elite Bracket:
3. Bowen Byram, 6'1, D - Vancouver (WHL)
4. Alex Turcotte, 5'11, C - NTDP
5. Vasily Podkolzin, 6'1, RW - Neva St Petersburg (Russia2)
6. Kirby Dach, 6'4, C - Saskatoon (WHL)
7. Dylan Cozens, 6'3, C - Lethbridge (WHL)
Fringe Elite Bracket:
8. Cole Caufield, 5'7, RW - NTDP
9. Trevor Zegras, 6', C - NTDP
10. Arthur Kaliyev, 6'2, RW - Hamilton (OHL)
11. Peyton Krebs, 6'0, C - Winnipeg (WHL)
12. Matt Boldy, 6'2, LW - NTDP

Meaning I don't like a D pick at 10. Simply too many forwards with great potential at that pick and the D (aside from Byram) don't have any real standouts, though a case could be made for Seider.

 

[DFAC]

This scenario can't really happen unless someone ranked higher falls, who I'd imagine we'd take.

Assume the top six includes: Hughes, Kakko, Turcotte, Byram, Dach, and Zegras. That leaves Cozens, Broberg, Boldy, and Newhook rounding out the top 10. They'd likely take one of those remaining four. The player the Canucks pick is likely on that list right there.

I don't see a scenario where the Canucks even look at Caufield, Podkolzin, or Krebs. Maybe they really like Krebs, but I can't see them having him ranked ahead of any of those other guys.

I didnt include Broberg in that list.... I dont want to believe that we will pick him over a forward. I would rather pick Seider if we are set on a dman

 

[Zombotron]

Paywall:

Kings' top scout breaks down possible draft picks at No. 5

 

[DFAC]

if theres even a remote chance of getting Leason with our 2nd rounder we have to take it, but I think he's long gone by that time

Im telling you there’s a chance Lloyd

 

[TruGr1t]

I didnt include Broberg in that list.... I dont want to believe that we will pick him over a forward. I would rather pick Seider if we are set on a dman

Based on what SN650 has said it seems like they have Broberg ranked quite high (i.e. Don't expect him to be available). I think they'll take him if he's there. No idea if he's at the top of the list though, or how he'd rank next to guys like Boldy and Newhook. I do suspect they'd take him over Caulfield, Podkolzin, and Krebs.

 

[DFAC]

Was just surfing through youtube and came across this



Can't wait for next week... should be good

 

[Bleach Clean]

Paywall:

Kings' top scout breaks down possible draft picks at No. 5

Who's the top choice?

 

[CanaFan]

Was just surfing through youtube and came across this



Can't wait for next week... should be good

aaah, good memories. I know that trade was hotly debated at the time but man, imagine how much *more* of a shit show this team would be now if we didn’t have Bo and Schneider had given us all-star goaltending from 2014-17 before his game dropped off last year. It truly boggles the mind.

 

[CanaFan]

Who's the top choice?

Byram
Caufield
Cozens
Dach
Turcotte

in that order. No top choice given but longest write ups were Caufield and Dach.

 

[Addison Rae]

Byram
Caufield
Cozens
Dach
Turcotte

in that order. No top choice given but longest write ups were Caufield and Dach.

No Pod? Interesting

 

[Bleach Clean]

Byram
Caufield
Cozens
Dach
Turcotte

in that order. No top choice given but longest write ups were Caufield and Dach.

Surprised Caufield is there. The other 4 are as expected, thanks.

This lines up with those 4 prospects (sans Caufield) being highly coveted. I was thinking on this, and I believe that one of the most unfavourable mocks would be:

3. Turcotte
4. Cozens
5. Dach
6. Byram

This is bad because DET has heavy interest in Byram. They would take him to the exclusion of all remaining forward options. They have a great need on defense. However, if they take Byram, then Podkolzin slips and takes away a variable position within the top10. As a result, the likelihood that Boldy/Zegras get taken from picks 7-9 increases.

With Byram gone in the top5, DET's choice is between Podkolzin and one of Dach/Cozens. 50/50 they take Podkolzin, which then allows Dach/Cozens to slip and make Boldy/Zegras fall farther.

Luckily, I think it's likely that Byram is taken in the top5. This then leaves it all on DET to decide the remaining forward order. That's a lot better than having both variables at play at pick #6.

 

[CanaFan]

Surprised Caufield is there. The other 4 are as expected, thanks.

This lines up with those 4 prospects being highly coveted. I was thinking on this, and I believe that one of the most unfavourable mocks would be:

3. Turcotte
4. Cozens
5. Dach
6. Byram

This is bad because DET has heavy interest in Byram. They would take him to the exclusion of all other options, including Cozens. Whereas the same order of priority may not be true for any of the forwards. In such a case, they could take Cozens, have Podkolzin drop and effectively take away one variable pick among the order.

In essence, Byram needs to get picked before the 6th pick, and if he is, then DET needs to take Podkolzin. This is the order that greatly increases the chances of Zegras dropping to pick 10.

Possible though Detroit is the team I fear is most likely to take Zegras, with Buffalo more likely to value a winger (Boldy, Podkolzin, Caufield, Krebs) and Edmonton reported to be high on Broberg. Anaheim is the other team I think would value Zegras highly but there’s so many potential draft orders leading up to 9 that it isn’t really worth worrying about.

My ideal order is:

1 Hughes
2 Kakko
3 Byram
4 Turcotte
5 Cozens/Caufield
6 Dach
7 Boldy/Caufield/Pod
8 Broberg
9 Krebs/Boldy/Newhook

... leaving us at least 1 of Zegras/Newhook/Boldy available.

The key is 1 of Pod/Caufield/Krebs going top 10 and the Broberg-to-Edm intel being accurate. If those both happen, we would be sitting pretty.

 

[DonnyNucker]

No Pod? Interesting

Not really. I’d be shocked if Podkolzin went top 10. Seems like Ronning on Empty is convinced he will but most of us think he will fall hard

 

[CanaFan]

Not really. I’d be shocked if Podkolzin went top 10. Seems like Ronning on Empty is convinced he will but most of us think he will fall hard

Never underestimate the degree to which NHL scouts love “hard work”, “compete”, and “battle levels”. He’s anathema on HFB but adored by scouts.

I’d be stunned if Pod doesn’t go top 10.



Edit: Here are *all* the scout quotes from HP’s book. For context, Cozens, Caufield, Dach, Boldy, and Zegras all had far more negative or ambivalent comments:

“Fantastic player. He plays a lot harder than most Russians.” - NHL Scout, August, 2018

“Top three in June: Hughes , Kakko and Podkolzin 3rd. Nobody is touching them so book it. - NHL Scout, January 2019”

“He's a great player. He competes so hard, he’s skilled. - NHL Scout, May 2019

“Skilled and hard to play against. He’s a big pest. Good on the walls and along the half-boards.” - NHL Scout, May 2019

“He doesn’t need to put up as many points as some of these other highly ranked kids in order to be a difference maker” – HP Scout, Brad Allen”

 

[Bleach Clean]

Possible though Detroit is the team I fear is most likely to take Zegras, with Buffalo more likely to value a winger (Boldy, Podkolzin, Caufield, Krebs) and Edmonton reported to be high on Broberg. Anaheim is the other team I think would value Zegras highly but there’s so many potential draft orders leading up to 9 that it isn’t really worth worrying about.

My ideal order is:

1 Hughes
2 Kakko
3 Byram
4 Turcotte
5 Cozens/Caufield
6 Dach
7 Boldy/Caufield/Pod
8 Broberg
9 Krebs/Boldy/Newhook

... leaving us at least 1 of Zegras/Newhook/Boldy available.

The key is 1 of Pod/Caufield/Krebs going top 10 and the Broberg-to-Edm intel being accurate. If those both happen, we would be sitting pretty.

I edited my post for clarity.

I don't fear that DET has Zegras ahead of Podkolzin/Cozens/Dach. I could be wrong, but I don't see them passing on skilled centre and wing options that are big in favour of the smaller playmaker. Just my gut instinct on it.

Here is my latest mock:

1. Hughes
2. Kakko
3. Turcotte
4. Dach
5. Byram
6. Podkolzin
7. Caufield
8. Broberg
9. Cozens
10. Zegras

Boldy, Newhook and Krebs remaining.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Not really. I’d be shocked if Podkolzin went top 10. Seems like Ronning on Empty is convinced he will but most of us think he will fall hard

I think DET will pick him if Byram, Turcotte and Dach are off the board. If they don't then he could drop out of the top10.

The only remaining team that may covet him would be ANA, but that's based upon skill set. They don't have a strong history of drafting Russians.

 

[DonnyNucker]

Never underestimate the degree to which NHL scouts love “hard work”, “compete”, and “battle levels”. He’s anathema on HFB but adored by scouts.

I’d be stunned if Pod doesn’t go top 10.



Edit: Here are *all* the scout quotes from HP’s book. For context, Cozens, Caufield, Dach, Boldy, and Zegras all had far more negative or ambivalent comments:

“Fantastic player. He plays a lot harder than most Russians.” - NHL Scout, August, 2018

“Top three in June: Hughes , Kakko and Podkolzin 3rd. Nobody is touching them so book it. - NHL Scout, January 2019”

“He's a great player. He competes so hard, he’s skilled. - NHL Scout, May 2019

“Skilled and hard to play against. He’s a big pest. Good on the walls and along the half-boards.” - NHL Scout, May 2019

“He doesn’t need to put up as many points as some of these other highly ranked kids in order to be a difference maker” – HP Scout, Brad Allen”

Totally understand your point but he is just a player I really don’t like. Yes he works hard and he has decent skating and size but he just doesn’t have any high end skills. I think he can be a solid middle six forward but that only increases the “Russian factor.” The non-elite Russians are more of a flight risk.

As I said, I’d be shocked if a team takes a chance on him but I’d be ecstatic. Friday will be a great day if Podkolzin, Broberg and Caufield all go top 10

 

[DonnyNucker]

I think DET will pick him if Byram, Turcotte and Dach are off the board. If they don't then he could drop out of the top10.

The only remaining team that may covet him would be ANA, but that's based upon skill set. They don't have a strong history of drafting Russians.

Please be right

 

[CanaFan]

Totally understand your point but he is just a player I really don’t like. Yes he works hard and he has decent skating and size but he just doesn’t have any high end skills. I think he can be a solid middle six forward but that only increases the “Russian factor.” The non-elite Russians are more of a flight risk.

As I said, I’d be shocked if a team takes a chance on him but I’d be ecstatic. Friday will be a great day if Podkolzin, Broberg and Caufield all go top 10

Agree and I don’t want him either for those exact reasons, but I also wouldn’t have drafted Lawson Crouse 11th before Connor, Barzal, Chabot, White, Konecny, or Boeser either.

NHL scouts have predictable biases and size, effort, and safe floors are their worst ones.

 

[polarbearcub]

Boldly is my guy. I think he’s going to be an absolute stud.

 

[thefeebster]

A focus is not an attempt to exclude all other traits. A focus is a priority. All other traits withstanding, skill should be of the highest priority IMO.

In the Kabanov/Landeskog comparison, the quality or echelon of the player was not the same. The difference with Pronman is that he isolates to disregard overall player quality, I don't, it's too myopic.

My recollection is that we were talking about Hughes and Dobson.

For defenders, i think skill is a lot different than forwards. Like i mentioned, i do have more of type for defenders than F. I like big, mobile two way, minute munching defenders. I believe i used Pietrangelo/Parayko/Edler as examples then, will add that for my keeper pools, i drafted Giordano in his first NHL season, love that guy even without a Norris calibre season. Would any of these guys be considered overtly skilled in the conventional sense, i don't think so.

Makes sense if you see that big offensive upside in Broberg. I'm not so sure on it. Biggest thing is probably that the "puck rushing" ability is something i tend to prioritize less than efficient puck-movement. I've seen reads all over the map on Broberg's offensive "upside" though...and i can kinda understand a lot of them. He's a polarizing prospect.

I'm not sure i see "big" offensive upside like 45+pts category. But i see him in a similar vein as the defenders i mentioned above. I see Broberg's biggest strength as defense, in that he's going to eat a ton of minutes (+PK1), make smart decisions and be aggressive defensively. A point of contention is how ppl see him (mover vs rusher), i see him as a puck mover with the ability to rush. His first pass is great. I like his zone exits either via passing or skating (compared it to Q.Hughes). Offensively, i mentioned before, i don't see him as a natural PP1 type of defender but moreso an Edler-type who should be on PP2 ideally. I like his play when set in the Offzone; while not too creative, just solid puck movement. The main issue is his end-to-end rushes/zone entries that don't work. I do agree refinement there is needed, but its the only area of weakness i really see in his game and i do think it can be refined.

 

[Bleach Clean]

For defenders, i think skill is a lot different than forwards. Like i mentioned, i do have more of type for defenders than F. I like big, mobile two way, minute munching defenders. I believe i used Pietrangelo/Parayko/Edler as examples then, will add that for my keeper pools, i drafted Giordano in his first NHL season, love that guy even without a Norris calibre season. Would any of these guys be considered overtly skilled in the conventional sense, i don't think so.

Overtly skilled, no. More skilled than the alternatives? It depends, but I think we are veering off here. You favour different skill sets depending upon position, fair enough. I feel that the same focus should be there regardless of position. Which then brings up an interesting question:

Do you agree with VAN's current draft methodology? That is, to prioritize skill no matter the pick?

Strangely enough, their methodology is aligned with my own. It hasn't cost them yet. Where they may pick the wrong player because they are caught chasing skill, but it still might. That level of error has to be deemed acceptable to them. Does it seem acceptable to you?

 

[baxtefer]

Surprised Caufield is there. The other 4 are as expected, thanks.

This lines up with those 4 prospects (sans Caufield) being highly coveted. I was thinking on this, and I believe that one of the most unfavourable mocks would be:

3. Turcotte
4. Cozens
5. Dach
6. Byram

This is bad because DET has heavy interest in Byram. They would take him to the exclusion of all remaining forward options. They have a great need on defense. However, if they take Byram, then Podkolzin slips and takes away a variable position within the top10. As a result, the likelihood that Boldy/Zegras get taken from picks 7-9 increases.

With Byram gone in the top5, DET's choice is between Podkolzin and one of Dach/Cozens. 50/50 they take Podkolzin, which then allows Dach/Cozens to slip and make Boldy/Zegras fall farther.

Luckily, I think it's likely that Byram is taken in the top5. This then leaves it all on DET to decide the remaining forward order. That's a lot better than having both variables at play at pick #6.

The 5 names were provided by the author, not the Scout.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

If we are hell bent on taking a D I’d rather us trade down a few spots.... then at least recoup another pick. Seems as though there’s a handful to choose from that will fall in the 12-20 range. As well, I do see broberg going before 10 too.

But I am in the majority here and hope we take a forward @ 10 (zegras, boldy, newhook ideally).