Pre-Game Talk: 2019 NHL Draft, Pt. V: Got your ticket? (Mod note in pinned post)

[ChilliBilly]

Imagine having another first round pick

you can imagine it, but the actual cost would be Horvat and our 2nd or an unprotect 2020 1st to get another pick between 10 and 20.

 

[CanaFan]

you can imagine it, but the actual cost would be Horvat and our 2nd or an unprotect 2020 1st to get another pick between 10 and 20.

It would??? I mean, I get that it’s Benning doing the negotiating but that’s pretty insane even by his low standards. Horvat alone should get you ~pick 6-7 in this draft I’d imagine.

 

[DFAC]

Imagine having another first round pick

Sure it would be nice but who would we trade for another 1st?

Edler wasn't waiving and Tanev doesn't have the same value anymore due to his injury history

 

[settinguptheplay]

you can imagine it, but the actual cost would be Horvat and our 2nd or an unprotect 2020 1st to get another pick between 10 and 20.

Horvat easily gets you a 10~20 pick. Plus some. He was drafted at 9 and has done nothing but improve his stock. The idea we would have to add an addition 1st or 2nd is nuts.

 

[FireBenningNow]

Want to put my top 10 down somewhere on the record. Not a mock, just my rankings...see what happens.

1. Jack Hughes
2. Kappo Kakko
3. Bowen Byram
4. Trevor Zegras
5. Alex Turcotte
6. Kirby Dach
   
7. Peyton Krebs
8. Alex Newhook
9. Cole Caufield
10. Vasili Podkolzin

 

[Scott Stevens]

I really would love to see the Canucks come out of this draft with Trevor Zegras, but that doesn’t seem likely whatsoever.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I feel you switched your focus and maybe i said i don't feel you can just focus on that one aspect, otherwise you become early years pronman who kept Kabanov top 5 when nearly everyone else dropped him multiple rounds or ripped Landeskog into pieces.

Or we were talking about defenders (2018 draft?), where i feel skill is definitely not something you can only consider for that position.

A focus is not an attempt to exclude all other traits. A focus is a priority. All other traits withstanding, skill should be of the highest priority IMO.

In the Kabanov/Landeskog comparison, the quality or echelon of the player was not the same. The difference with Pronman is that he isolates to disregard overall player quality, I don't, it's too myopic.

My recollection is that we were talking about Hughes and Dobson.

 

[DFAC]

Think we might have to end up picking between Krebs, Caulfield or Podz at 10..... Newhook might not be there at 10. Doubt Zegras will be either and Boldy seems like a typical Anaheim pick

If that's the case we might as well take a gamble and swing for the fences with Caufield or Podz.... or go for a dman like Seider

 

[DFAC]

Starting to think Podz would be a good fit in our top 6 - we need a puck hound with his aggressiveness to get pucks to our skilled guys

 

[Bleach Clean]

Redwings draft preview. Two of the three panelists predict Cozens is going to be taken by the wings. Draper is also a huge fan, apparently. One of the panelists, Art Regner, states that he's heard that the wings will take Podkolzin if he's there.

Breakdown starts at the 15 min mark.

 

[biturbo19]

It has been. I'm not sure how I have implied anything else?

Understand that I am outlining Podkolzin's placement within the top10. Why the intelligentsia thinks he should be there. I am not, however, promoting his skill set as something I would choose over other favourites within the top10.

Ahhh. Gotcha. Not personal projection, just musings about the way you/article think NHL GMs draft Lawson Crouses et al. I'd want to say i think teams have moved away from that...especially if they're not a "good ol' Tronnah boy"...but you could very well be right.

How hard exactly, would you ding Podkolzin on his skill level?

Don't want to rehash the debate from 8? pages ago btwn you, Cana, and bleach. But that's essentially what it comes down to, his skill level. I side with bleach's view. Since the beginning of the season, I've felt he was a cut below in skill level to the other top Whlers, and over the course of the season, easily below the top Americans. The U18s helped to add Newhook to the picture with the even playing field. For me, I saw a noticeable skill gap again between Krebs and him.

Fair enough. Certainly seems to be quite a bit of debate over exactly where Krebs skill-level falls. I find it kinda weird the way he's sometimes pigeonholed as this "high effort grinder" almost, while others don't seem to see the same vision i like in him as a potential NHL playmaker when given better linemates who can process the game on his level. I can see where people like Newhook's skill level better...he's a lot more uninhibited in trying more ambitious things with the puck on his stick. I just view some of that as things Newhook is probably going to have to iron out of his game in time, and i think he will in his NCAA time. Krebs injury obviously complicates things a lot though, in what was already a tight race among a big group of guys.

I feel like i'm kinda out there mostly alone, but for me...Dach is the one whose raw "skill level" i question most. Just too often i saw instances where it felt like his best skill was "bigness". Like i'm waaaaaay out there on a limb, in that if i'm taking a big dude with inconsistent motor...i like Lavoie. He's extremely good at what he's good at, skates way better, and when he's engaged...he's a factor in a lot more facets of the game.

Both have good/mature defensive games. I feel the skating and potential offence ability sets Broberg apart. If he can clean up his rushes and find players who can keep up to dish with, it is a very intriguing upside. Also IMO, an intriguing blend of puck mover+rusher.

Makes sense if you see that big offensive upside in Broberg. I'm not so sure on it. Biggest thing is probably that the "puck rushing" ability is something i tend to prioritize less than efficient puck-movement. I've seen reads all over the map on Broberg's offensive "upside" though...and i can kinda understand a lot of them. He's a polarizing prospect.

I feel like I don't have a type per se for forwards, defenders moreso yes. I mean, Ehlers was my choice, I also advocated hard for Tkachuk and Pettersson/Vilardi. My most favourite junior player to watch was Marner.

For this draft, as an example, I really like Tomasino (skill) and Rees (two way energy).

The only one I might say is out of character is Caufield because of size and I do like to stay in the range of 5'10-6'3. I did discount Debrincat for many of the same flaws ppl assign to Caufield. But it's hard to argue against all the record breaking. Don't want to make the same mistake.

The point of Caufield is what i struggle with there. I also discounted Debrincat too much for those same reasons. But i also don't want to presume that just because one "outlier" has found a ton of success early in the NHL...that another kinda similar outlier is also going to thrive the same way. There are clear differences between the two. Chief among them, i don't think Caufield has near the same bite to his game, and more of his scoring is about that sweet sweet one-timer setup, where DeBrincat had a bit more of that Gallagher-esque garbage man element to his game on top of the shooting ability.

I honestly have no idea how to rank Caufield though.

 

[biturbo19]

I did explain it a bit before and i am wondering if i am punishing him too hard for the U18s. But i thought he was atrocious for 6 of 7 games. In those games, he reminded me of that Brendan Gaunce quote about there being guys who skate around a ton but accomplish nothing. I just found him a whole lotta ineffective, Krebs won many of his board battles for him. Rarely created play for others, limited playmaking ability, might even rate it lower than Caufield among the top forwards discussed. And rarely got in good position to utilize his shot, many shots were blocked.

Maybe my expectations were too high. I expected him to be a top player this tourney and top player for Canada. Beyond that one game, he was a passenger, not a difference maker at all. Whole lotta yuck was what we got.

I can see the despair about Cozens at the U18s. He's the opposite of Krebs, in that he seemed to look worse, with better linemates. A lot of the U18s though, seemed liked trying to fit bad line combos together, and when they hit on some good ones...they all looked better. Cozens is that type of player that's going to be pretty up/down from game to game, and probably inherently a bit frustrating because they have all the tools to look like they should do more...but the vision isn't consistently there, so they make decisions that are frustrating. He's had games where he looks like an absolutely dominant 2-way C to me though. His ceiling feels "limited" in the same way Zibanejad, Kesler, and even Larkin to an extent had that sense about them. But he's not completely clueless and hopeless. His vision just seems to lag behind his physical abilities.

Agreed. The whole DET/ Yzerman speculation about picking Podkolzin because he is Russian is a pretty lazy analysis. I’d be incredibly surprised (and ecstatic) if he goes top 10

Agreed. Honestly, if anything...we should be inferring that Yzerman will probably pick a CHLer with his 1st pick. That's been his real MO.

Starting to think Podz would be a good fit in our top 6 - we need a puck hound with his aggressiveness to get pucks to our skilled guys

Would he really be a good fit to get pucks to our skilled guys though? That's one of my biggest concerns with Podkolzin's game. He often doesn't seem to have the vision to get pucks to others when and where you want him to. He's got the Kesler beaver-tap perfected...and he also has a tendency to skate himself into a corner with the puck. He's got some slick moves at times, but the overall picture with Podkolzin, is he really going to be a guy who shares the puck enough to be that true "complementary winger". In a lot of ways, he's the "riskier" Russian factor, slightly poorer man's version of Cozens to me. Without the Center upside or production either.

 

[biturbo19]

#2 Boldy - Probably the best fit stylistically (balance of high end puck skills, size, and goal scoring skills) and a close #2 to Zegras for me. Lack of explosive speed is a slight negative but reports are he's grown from 6' to 6'2 in the past year and that can wreak havoc on anyone's skating mechanics. His overall agility and footwork in small spaces is very good, just doesn't translate into top end speed yet. But everything else is at a very very high level and is a natural LW, which is a perfect positional fit. Boldy - EP - Boeser as a line could be absolutely lethal.

I think this is a great point regarding Boldy. He's often treated like this guy who isn't a very good skater, but that's not really true. He doesn't have the high end speed. But he's deceptively agile and shifty in small areas with the puck. I've seen him turn a lot of defenders inside-out with a quick 180, and using that reach he has to keep the puck protected to make a play.

 

[biturbo19]

#5 Seider - The only D I'm interested in after Byram. Like his combination of size (6'4), position (RHD), and strengths on the defensive side of the puck. May have latent offensive skills, as he was apparently a dynamic puck rush in German jr but then shot up 3-4 inches and seemingly lost that ability. Combines a great mind for the game, with strong skating, and physical presence. Puck skills will need work but if he can put it all together, he could be a passable 1D partner for Hughes for the next decade

Agreed. Seider is really intriguing. He's the D i'd want, after Byram. He plays the game in a way that really belies his age, but he still has the tools and flashes of the instincts to get a lot better and more impactful all-around.

2) I don't know much about Seider- usually everyone on this board is very against drafting Stay at home defensemen in the 1st round. What makes this guy different? Are people imagining a Hjalmarsson type player here?

I don't think "stay at home defenceman" is a fair descriptor of Seider's upside at all. If that's all people were projecting, he wouldn't be getting 1st round buzz here...much less Top-15 conversation. He's not that "zero offense" type guy. He's a big guy who moves really well, plays smart and safe in his own end with a good stick, and makes a good first pass. But has also shown that he has not only the tools...but the instincts to join the rush and chip in when the situation is right. Plus a bit of PP triggerman upside.

2) It's a fine line for me. As a rule I don't like strictly defensive players, unless they display a sufficiently high end defensive skill set (size, reach, physicality, skating, IQ, break out passing) that they can project to a top pair D (presumably with a more offensively-inclined partner). Think Tanev at his peak or a guy like Lindholm today. Can't be a total black hole offensively, but doesn't have to project as PP type if he's good at all other areas of the game. Seider looks to have that type of upside and has the added bonus of being a RHD which would allow him to partner with Hughes. I'd probably be lower on Seider if we didn't already have Quinn and would be more inclined to look at guys like Harley and York. A bit more of a need/opportunity pick than pure BPA I suppose, which is why he's not at the top of my list but is a pick I wouldn't hate (unlike picking Soderstrom).

If we'd taken Dobson (who i wanted) instead of Hughes last year, i still think Seider would be my second choice defenceman this year. But i do understand your point, and i think it's close enough between Seider and York that i'd consider a guy like York to pair up with Dobson instead at 10.

I'd say less Tanev, in that he's far more physical and maybe not that insane level of defensive positioning refinement. More like Edler though, in that Seider's biggest offensive contribution potential seems to be in jumping into the rush at the right moments, and as a potential "triggerman" on a PP. He's not going to be the "Quarterback" who runs a top man advantage unit...but he's got traits that could translate as a contributor, to at least a PP2. Or really, i still stick by my Pesce comp. But in any case, i agree with the general principle there. I think Seider absolutely has the upside to be that bigtime minute eating top-pairing complement, or perfect partner to a rover like Hughes in the future. Or anchor a separate pairing that is more of a matchup unit to keep Hughes insulated. That's why i value guys like Seider...or Dobson last year, so highly.

I agree. I think to win the Cup, you need one guy on the backend who can produce offensively. After that, having a guy capable of logging big minutes while offering strong defensive play and can effectively move the up effectively up can be invaluable. Seider doesn't project to be a stud #1 all situations Dman or dynamic offensive Dman, but he's the type who can play in your top 4 for 10+ years. It's why I am still hopeful that Juolevi will turn into a good player for the Canucks in the mould of say a De Haan.

Exactly. I think you do probably need a 2nd defenceman who can man your 2nd PP Unit, at least as a trigger man. But by and large...defenceman point production tends to be driven by PP results. It's been the difference between "peak Edler" and "later Edler"...where he got better as a defenceman, but lost out of PP points without the real "quarterback" in Ehrhoff there to make it go. These days, you're probably only gonna have 1 defenceman who gets that special "PP1" treatment, and for us...that's obviously Hughes.

You obviously need to have D who can move the puck, and with that comes a certain baseline of points...but if you want "big star points" you either need a franchise level do-it-all D, or you need an offensive and PP specialist. If you draft a guy like Seider at 10 and he becomes a solid 20+ minute matchup guy who puts up 30pts, kills penalties, plays a bit as a PP2 option using his good shot and hockey sense to hammer some pucks through...that's a huge win there. For me, he's easily got that potential.

 

[StreetHawk]

Horvat easily gets you a 10~20 pick. Plus some. He was drafted at 9 and has done nothing but improve his stock. The idea we would have to add an addition 1st or 2nd is nuts.

There isn’t any combination of players outside of the Petey, Brock, Bo, Quinn that nets you another 1st up to pick 20.

Ceiling on the players in the range is no worst than the players the Canucks can offer.

 

[Teflon Jim]

It would??? I mean, I get that it’s Benning doing the negotiating but that’s pretty insane even by his low standards. Horvat alone should get you ~pick 6-7 in this draft I’d imagine.

I agree , he's a former 9oa pick whose excelling opposed to a magic bean at the draft.
A legit player for a maybe player is not a fair trade.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Horvat easily gets you a 10~20 pick. Plus some. He was drafted at 9 and has done nothing but improve his stock. The idea we would have to add an addition 1st or 2nd is nuts.

fair comment ... I guess its better to say people won't give up 1st round draft picks unless they get a serious overpayment.

 

[TruGr1t]

Think we might have to end up picking between Krebs, Caulfield or Podz at 10..... Newhook might not be there at 10. Doubt Zegras will be either and Boldy seems like a typical Anaheim pick

If that's the case we might as well take a gamble and swing for the fences with Caufield or Podz.... or go for a dman like Seider

This scenario can't really happen unless someone ranked higher falls, who I'd imagine we'd take.

Assume the top six includes: Hughes, Kakko, Turcotte, Byram, Dach, and Zegras. That leaves Cozens, Broberg, Boldy, and Newhook rounding out the top 10. They'd likely take one of those remaining four. The player the Canucks pick is likely on that list right there.

I don't see a scenario where the Canucks even look at Caufield, Podkolzin, or Krebs. Maybe they really like Krebs, but I can't see them having him ranked ahead of any of those other guys.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

fair comment ... I guess its better to say people won't give up 1st round draft picks unless they get a serious overpayment.

Depends on the team, and where they are in their team's cycle.
Fan's on the other hand are very much blinded by the shiny new prospect potential of a draft pick.
There are a lot of fans/media that overrated the actual value of draft picks.

IMO, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Vegas wouldn't be opposed to trading their 1st rd picks if they got a cost effective Top 6 Forward / Top 4 Defenseman who improves their team.

The expectation of a 1st Rd Pick is Top 6/Top 4. If a team in win now mode can acquire a player who is already Top 6/Top 4 and has a cap hit that works in exchange for a 1st Rd Pick, it's something that needs to be looked into seriously.

 

[CanaFan]

fair comment ... I guess its better to say people won't give up 1st round draft picks unless they get a serious overpayment.

Timing is everything. Trade deadline is the time to get them, as every team in the playoff race prioritizes the next 12 weeks over the next 12 years. Doing it in the week of the draft? Not so much

 

[Josepho]

The Spiced-Up, 7-Round and Joinable 2019 Redraft

annual draft nerd tradition if any of y'all want in lemme know

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Imagine having another first round pick

If there was some way we could get Boldy/Newhook/Zegras/faller and Seider I’d be overjoyed.

And I’d be willing to move anyone/anything outside of Pettersson, Horvat, Boeser or 2020 1st to do so. Unfortunately, losing Horvat, Boeser or the 1st is probably the only way we could get that done.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Based on nothing but my irrational feelings on watching videos/interviews on the 1st Rounders my top 31 ... broken into my "brackets" for my overall impression:

Elite Bracket:
1. Jack Hughes, 5'10, C - NTDP
2. Kaapo Kakko, 6'2, RW - TPS (Finland)
Semi-Elite Bracket:
3. Bowen Byram, 6'1, D - Vancouver (WHL)
4. Alex Turcotte, 5'11, C - NTDP
5. Vasily Podkolzin, 6'1, RW - Neva St Petersburg (Russia2)
6. Kirby Dach, 6'4, C - Saskatoon (WHL)
7. Dylan Cozens, 6'3, C - Lethbridge (WHL)
Fringe Elite Bracket:
8. Cole Caufield, 5'7, RW - NTDP
9. Trevor Zegras, 6', C - NTDP
10. Arthur Kaliyev, 6'2, RW - Hamilton (OHL)
11. Peyton Krebs, 6'0, C - Winnipeg (WHL)
12. Matt Boldy, 6'2, LW - NTDP
Potential 'Top Line' Player:
13. Philip Tomasino, 6',0, Niagara (OHL)
14. Alex Newhook, 5'11, C - Victoria (BCJHL)
15. Raphaël Lavoie, 6'4, RW - Halifax (QMJHL)
16. Moritz Sedier, 6'4, D - Manheim (Germany)
17. Thomas Harley, 6'3, D - Mississauga (OHL)
18. Philip Broberg, 6'3, D - AIK Allsvenskan (Sweden)
19. Egor Afanasyev, 6'3, LW - Muskegon (USHL)
20. Spencer Knight, 6'3, G - NTDP
21. Pyotr Kochetkov, 6'3, G - Ryazan (Russia)
Serviceable Pro:
22. Danil Misyul, 6'3, D - Yaroslavl 2 (Russia)
23. Nils Hoglander, 6', LW - Rogle (Sweden)
24. Ryan Suziki, 6'1, C - Barrie (OHL)
25. Victor Soderstrom, 6', D - Brynas (Sweden)
26. Cameron York, 5'11, D - NTDP
Rounding Out the 1st:
27. Simon Holmstrom, 6'2, HV71 (Sweden)
28. Ville Heinola, 6', D - Lukko (Finland)
29. Lassi Thomson, 5'11, D - Ives (Finland)
30. Samuel Poulin, 5'11, RW - Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
31. Bobby Brink, 5'9, RW - NTDP
Honorable mention top 10:
32. Jakob Pelletier, 5'9, LW - Moncton (QMJHL)
33. Connor McMichael, 5'11, C - London (OHL)
34. Brayden Tracey, 6'0, LW - Moosejaw (WHL)
35. Mads Sogaard, 6'8, G - Medicine Hat (WHL)
36. Nicholas Robertson, 5'9, RW - Peterborough (OHL)
37. Vladislav Firstov, 6'1, LW - Waterloo (USHL)
38. Shane Pinto, 6'2, C - U. North Dakota (NCAA)
39. Brett Leason, 6'4, LW - Prince Albert (WHL)
40. Jackson LaCombe , 6'2, D - Shattuck - St Marys Prep (High-Mn)
41. Matthew Robertson, 6'3, D - Edmonton (WHL)

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Based on nothing but my irrational feelings on watching videos/interviews on the 1st Rounders my top 31 ... broken into my "brackets" for my overall impression:

Elite Bracket:
1. Jack Hughes, 5'10, C - NTDP
2. Kaapo Kakko, 6'2, RW - TPS (Finland)
Semi-Elite Bracket:
3. Bowen Byram, 6'1, D - Vancouver (WHL)
4. Alex Turcotte, 5'11, C - NTDP
5. Vasily Podkolzin, 6'1, RW - Neva St Petersburg (Russia2)
6. Kirby Dach, 6'4, C - Saskatoon (WHL)
7. Dylan Cozens, 6'3, C - Lethbridge (WHL)
Fringe Elite Bracket:
8. Cole Caufield, 5'7, RW - NTDP
9. Trevor Zegras, 6', C - NTDP
10. Arthur Kaliyev, 6'2, RW - Hamilton (OHL)
11. Peyton Krebs, 6'0, C - Winnipeg (WHL)
12. Matt Boldy, 6'2, LW - NTDP
Potential 'Top Line' Player:
13. Philip Tomasino, 6',0, Niagara (OHL)
14. Alex Newhook, 5'11, C - Victoria (BCJHL)
15. Raphaël Lavoie, 6'4, RW - Halifax (QMJHL)
16. Moritz Sedier, 6'4, D - Manheim (Germany)
17. Thomas Harley, 6'3, D - Mississauga (OHL)
18. Philip Broberg, 6'3, D - AIK Allsvenskan (Sweden)
19. Egor Afanasyev, 6'3, LW - Muskegon (USHL)
20. Spencer Knight, 6'3, G - NTDP
21. Pyotr Kochetkov, 6'3, G - Ryazan (Russia)
Serviceable Pro:
22. Danil Misyul, 6'3, D - Yaroslavl 2 (Russia)
23. Nils Hoglander, 6', LW - Rogle (Sweden)
24. Ryan Suziki, 6'1, C - Barrie (OHL)
25. Victor Soderstrom, 6', D - Brynas (Sweden)
26. Cameron York, 5'11, D - NTDP
Rounding Out the 1st:
27. Simon Holmstrom, 6'2, HV71 (Sweden)
28. Ville Heinola, 6', D - Lukko (Finland)
29. Lassi Thomson, 5'11, D - Ives (Finland)
30. Samuel Poulin, 5'11, RW - Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
31. Bobby Brink, 5'9, RW - NTDP
Honorable mention top 10:
32. Jakob Pelletier, 5'9, LW - Moncton (QMJHL)
33. Connor McMichael, 5'11, C - London (OHL)
34. Brayden Tracey, 6'0, LW - Moosejaw (WHL)
35. Mads Sogaard, 6'8, G - Medicine Hat (WHL)
36. Nicholas Robertson, 5'9, RW - Peterborough (OHL)
37. Vladislav Firstov, 6'1, LW - Waterloo (USHL)
38. Shane Pinto, 6'2, C - U. North Dakota (NCAA)
39. Brett Leason, 6'4, LW - Prince Albert (WHL)
40. Jackson LaCombe , 6'2, D - Shattuck - St Marys Prep (High-Mn)
41. Matthew Robertson, 6'3, D - Edmonton (WHL)

So, being in the fringe elite bracket..Would you say that the Canucks player at #10 will most likely top out as 2nd line player?...or a 2nd pairing D..?

 

[CherryToke]

I think this is a great point regarding Boldy. He's often treated like this guy who isn't a very good skater, but that's not really true. He doesn't have the high end speed. But he's deceptively agile and shifty in small areas with the puck. I've seen him turn a lot of defenders inside-out with a quick 180, and using that reach he has to keep the puck protected to make a play.

He looks like a quicker Bonino to me in my limited viewings of him which should translate well to the NHL.