2019 NHL Draft, Pt. II

[Cupless44]

Hot tip: don't base a draft decision on anything relating to who the current NHL coach of your team is.

It was just a fun shot at Green. Has nothing to do with players I would like to see drafted.

 

[canuckfan75]

if they pick in the 10 to 5 spots

I think it is either LW -Matthew Boldy or RHD Victor Soderstrom

Boldy has ties to Brackett

 

[M2Beezy]

Looks like we will be in 8th place assuming noone better than us jumps us and wins the draft lottery

Ottawa (Colo)
Detroit
LA
NJ
NYR
Anahiem
Buffalo
Vancity

Now beforehand looked pretty likely wed be around 5 but we won too many games recently which me makes me think we pushed our odds of finally winning the lottery too far out a reach even with all the not getting it the last 5 years. Not sure, still think were overdue in the odds but 8th place is pretty small odds. Buffalo is falling like a rock and i guess there bound to win at least a few games now, and Anahiem i doubt they only got 5 games left, and Rangers aint impressive enough to catch us. I think 8th

 

[Zombotron]

 

[Cupless44]

if they pick in the 10 to 5 spots

I think it is either LW -Matthew Boldy or RHD Victor Soderstrom

Boldy has ties to Brackett

So do not want to reach for Soderstom in the top 10. Aside from Byrum, the strength of the top 10 of this draft is all about the forwards and this team desperately needs a real top 6 winger on the way.

If Benning passes on Krebs, Cozens, Turcotte, Dach, Zegras for Soderstom it will be Juolevi all over again.

 

[me2]

if they pick in the 10 to 5 spots

I think it is either LW -Matthew Boldy or RHD Victor Soderstrom

Boldy has ties to Brackett

LW is brutal so Boldy makes sense.

 

[DanCloutiers5hole]

if they pick in the 10 to 5 spots

I think it is either LW -Matthew Boldy or RHD Victor Soderstrom

Boldy has ties to Brackett

What’s the Brackett connection ? I haven’t heard that before. But I do think your right , this management group has drafted for need pretty much every first round and those two fit the bill. I would lump Krebs in that grouping as well .

 

[Fatass]

So do not want to reach for Soderstom in the top 10. Aside from Byrum, the strength of the top 10 of this draft is all about the forwards and this team desperately needs a real top 6 winger on the way.

If Benning passes on Krebs, Cozens, Turcotte, Dach, Zegras for Soderstom it will be Juolevi all over again.

And having Benning pull another Virtanen, or Juolevi with this year’s top pick, which is a home draft too, is only amothe4 reason (of many) why as soon as this season is done so should Benning be done.

 

[me2]

Rebuilding team. Home draft.

How does this team not have 3-4 more picks in the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds? It feels like this is one of the few crappy teams not to be able to do it. Year after year.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I definitely understand the strength of league stuff. But I've come around to more tools-based/upside drafting than the analytic/likelihood of success models of late. I think a guy like Soderstrom has a likely higher chance of making it, but what does he become?

With a question of something like Caulfield vs. Soderstrom for example, I think the spread of possibilities is much larger for a guy like Caulfield. In rudimentary stats terms, his confidence interval is a lot smaller, but he has wider tails at both ends. Whereas I would think Soderstrom's "mean" outcome is at a higher baseline, but with less variance toward the tail ends.

My drafting philosophy is to prioritize that "tail-end" upside over average likelihood of success. The draft is really the only place where you can ever find cost-controlled star talent. So that's what I would hunt for. If you're a smart GM, you can find effective complementary players elsewhere. So I would disproportionately emphasize that tail-end upside.

I'd rather take a chance on a guy who has a (small) chance at being a star than a likely middle-of-the-lineup player. And there's a chance that those failed star draft picks end up as a middle-of the-lineup player as well. It reminds me of the JV vs. Nylander/Ehlers debates of 2014.

That said, I do think all of Soderstrom, Kokkonen, and Heinola are worthy first round picks. Would I take them in the top-third though? I'm not sure.

Side Note: I used Caulfield in my examples rather than a guy like Dach because, in all honestly, I'm not that high on Dach either.

There's nothing stopping Soderstrom from becoming a top pairing Dman. I do understand your point though: chase the upside. When doing so, however, let's keep in mind Caufield's height and its deviations from the 6'0" historical standard. He's at the extreme end of that spectrum.

Regardless, I think more GMs will see it your way rather than my way. Dach should get taken before Soderstrom. I expect Dach and/or Krebs to go before Soderstrom, Seider and Heinola. For me, only Dach would give me pause before taking Soderstrom. It's definitely up for debate at that choice.

The way I see the draft going for the Canucks: If they pick high enough, they will take the best shooting forward. Failing that, they pick up the best of Soderstrom or Seider. Pretty much what canuckfan75 is intimating.

 

[Cancuks]

This talk of picking #8-10 is nonsense, Benning doesn't have time to sit and wait for 2-3 years for a crapshoot prospect to develop. The draft is in Vancouver and Aquilini wants to make a splash and Hughes is his guy.

1st + Horvat for #1
or
1st 2019 + 1st 2020 + Demko + for #1

Get ready for it, it will happen, just depends on which team wins the lottery to see how big the deal will get. Best case scenario, Canucks get the #2 pick and a team with a #1 C that needs a young goalie like the Oilers/Panthers/Sabres win the lottery.

 

[bossram]

There's nothing stopping Soderstrom from becoming a top pairing Dman. I do understand your point though: chase the upside. When doing so, however, let's keep in mind Caufield's height and its deviations from the 6'0" historical standard. He's at the extreme end of that spectrum.

Regardless, I think more GMs will see it your way rather than my way. Dach should get taken before Soderstrom. I expect Dach and/or Krebs to go before Soderstrom, Seider and Heinola. For me, only Dach would give me pause before taking Soderstrom. It's definitely up for debate at that choice.

The way I see the draft going for the Canucks: If they pick high enough, they will take the best shooting forward. Failing that, they pick up the best of Soderstrom or Seider. Pretty much what canuckfan75 is intimating.

That's part of my reasoning too. There's an opportunity cost. The top forwards will all be gone by pick 10 or so. But if we were able to add a mid-to-late first (we won't because Benning but whatever), I think there would still be a very good chance to select a defenseman like Heinola, Kokkonen, Seider, or Robertson. I'd expect Soderstrom and York to be gone by then though.

In the end, it's all down to evaluation. I think Soderstrom is going to be a good NHL defenseman, but I'm just not sure he has that dynamic, high-end upside. The best case for him would be a Lindholm-type maybe (which I would love to have), but it's pretty difficult to project defensive-oriented defense prospects. Caulfield's risk is part of my analysis, as I said he has those "longer tails" at both ends. Size will be less of a factor going forward though in today's NHL.

Curious about your read on Seider? I don't know a ton about him, but you seem pretty high on him. There's a "quality of league" case with him as well. Based on my limited knowledge, I'd rather go for the Finns before him, but just wondering what your take is.

 

[DownGoesMcDavid]

Rebuilding team. Home draft.

How does this team not have 3-4 more picks in the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds? It feels like this is one of the few crappy teams not to be able to do it. Year after year.

We didnt have any assets that warranted a 1st/2nd rnd return.

Unless youre trading core players

 

[canuckfan75]

What’s the Brackett connection ? I haven’t heard that before. But I do think your right , this management group has drafted for need pretty much every first round and those two fit the bill. I would lump Krebs in that grouping as well .

Boldy went to Dexter Prep Hockey School in New England. Brackett has done coaching for the School in the past and that is where Rathbone went as well.

Boldy is right in Bracketts wheel house

 

[canuckfan75]

This team needs a top 6 forward so bad . They have been shut out 10 times in 76 games. that is 13.1% of there games they have not scored a goal wow!!!

 

[canuckfan75]

Boldy went to Dexter Prep Hockey School in New England. Brackett has done coaching for the School in the past and that is where Rathbone went as well.

Boldy is right in Bracketts wheel house

But I do think that a major push to get Jack Hughes as well is a very very strong possibility . Who know what the offer would be do that ? scary to think of it to be honest. the 2020 1st round pick unprotected to start.

 

[docbenton]

Boldy would be an excellent pick, he's got great skill and Datsyuk-like edgework. On top of skill you need guys who can win puck battles and he can do that too. There's little doubt in my mind that he'll be a scorer who can play a complete game.

 

[Ita]

Rebuilding team. Home draft.

How does this team not have 3-4 more picks in the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds? It feels like this is one of the few crappy teams not to be able to do it. Year after year.

Benning

 

[Ita]

This talk of picking #8-10 is nonsense, Benning doesn't have time to sit and wait for 2-3 years for a crapshoot prospect to develop. The draft is in Vancouver and Aquilini wants to make a splash and Hughes is his guy.

1st + Horvat for #1
or
1st 2019 + 1st 2020 + Demko + for #1

Get ready for it, it will happen, just depends on which team wins the lottery to see how big the deal will get. Best case scenario, Canucks get the #2 pick and a team with a #1 C that needs a young goalie like the Oilers/Panthers/Sabres win the lottery.

Lol best case scenario is for the Canucks to win #1

Both the deals you proposed for the Canucks will set them back for anlong time. Unfortunately this is enitrely possible with managements.

 

[MS]

Hard pass on Krebs with a top-10 pick.

Small, decent but not explosive or dynamic skater, not a great finisher.

To me his upside is an ok small 40-50 point 2nd line center like a Kerfoot in Colorado.

If that’s the kind of asset we’re looking at at 8 or 10 ... trade down.

 

[4Twenty]

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-hughes-leads-class-heavy-on-american-talent-1.1279391

 

[DanCloutiers5hole]

Hard pass on Krebs with a top-10 pick.

Small, decent but not explosive or dynamic skater, not a great finisher.

To me his upside is an ok small 40-50 point 2nd line center like a Kerfoot in Colorado.

If that’s the kind of asset we’re looking at at 8 or 10 ... trade down.

I don’t know ...I disagree .. first off when was 5’11 180 lbs considered small ? Second his skating is actually quite good , I think you need to temper your expectations . Just because he doesn’t have a Hughes level of skating doesn’t mean he’s not a good one. Third he’s a playmaking winger/center , he plays pass first but does have a great wrist shot. Now for the stuff you left out ...
His hockey IQ is elite one of the best if not the best in the top 10. He’s versatile , he can play left wing and center and is on the first team PP an PK. He has a massive compete level and doesn’t stop moving his feet all shift. Outside of Turcotte he’s probably the best two-way player in the top 10. I would consider him a better defensive Skinner or a less abrasive Gallagher.

 

[UK Canuck]

Rebuilding team. Home draft.

How does this team not have 3-4 more picks in the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds? It feels like this is one of the few crappy teams not to be able to do it. Year after year.

because we're not rebuilding, we've never been in a rebuild, we've never made a single move to indicate we're in a rebuild, we're just totally incompetent

 

[4Twenty]

Hard pass on Krebs with a top-10 pick.

Small, decent but not explosive or dynamic skater, not a great finisher.

To me his upside is an ok small 40-50 point 2nd line center like a Kerfoot in Colorado.

If that’s the kind of asset we’re looking at at 8 or 10 ... trade down.

There are reasons to be concerned with Krebs, but none of these make any sense to me (other than finishing, but it's hard to know, b/c Kootenay has little talent). I don't see many similarities with playstyle to Kerfoot, Krebs is already taller, heavier and appears stronger.

I wonder about your analysis on his skating too. He's got power in his stride.

He seems a lot more similar to Mike Richards than Kerfoot.

 

[MS]

There are reasons to be concerned with Krebs, but none of these make any sense to me (other than finishing, but it's hard to know, b/c Kootenay has little talent). I don't see many similarities with playstyle to Kerfoot, Krebs is already taller, heavier and appears stronger.

I wonder about your analysis on his skating too. He's got power in his stride.

He seems a lot more similar to Mike Richards than Kerfoot.

He’s a good WHL skater. But basically every top-9 NHL forward was a high-end skater at lower levels. Neither his speed nor his edgework is truly dynamic and if he reaches the NHL they won’t set him apart.

And he’s small and doesn’t project as a high-level goalscorer.

To me he looks like a guy who might be an OK #2 center someday. And if you got that at pick #23 or something, great. But this is not a top-10 talent even in a weak draft.