2019 NHL Draft, Pt. II

[Nuckler]

I did ponder him too. Does size matter? Or can that be overlooked for his elite scoring abilities? Johnny Hockey comes to mind. Is there any other D to consider around 8-12? Or is it a reach?

I would think long and hard about Thomas Harley if we fall to 12, very good mobility, smart, very good size, and the youngest player in the top 31 so lots of room to mature

 

[bossram]

Just curious, who is in your top10?

Soderstrom in the late teens is an odd opinion to me. Do you have more than an upside projection to rank him as low as you do?

I’m paying close attention to Soderstrom, Seider and Heinola. Kokkonen as well. This is the type of draft where a Dman could offer better value than a forward within the top12~... in an apparent way.

The other player on my radar is Pelletier.

Not that I have inside information, but most reports I've read on Soderstrom read like "smart defenseman, plays within his means" sort of thing. He doesn't have a dynamic offensive toolbox, but does make effective outlet passes and skates the puck when needed. I just think in our likely pick range there will probably be a forward I'd rather select. Seider I more or less feel the same way about. Heinola I haven't read as much about, but seems intriguing. Like Kokkonen, really good numbers in SM-Liiga.

My Top-10 would be something like:
Hughes/Kakko
Bryam/Turcotte
Zegras/Krebs/Cozens/Dach/Boldy/Caulfield

I don't have any of the defensemen rated super highly, but I could be convinced. There's a lot of other defenseman for consideration in mid round too like Cam York, Harley, Robertson. It's entirely likely that a few of the defensemen will pan out better than the forwards I have rated, but outside of the top-four it seems pretty difficult to tier this draft class.

More picks would make things easier, but that's a pipe dream.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

Man, the way things are going right now with our predictable late season garbage time standings climb and our annual three spot drop in the post lottery draft order we're bound to draft like eleventh or twelfth. Round and around we go...

The lower you are in the draft the harder it is to drop.

Dropping from 9 to 12th means that 3 teams picking between 10-15 won the draft lottery which is about 100 times less likely than us just winning a top-3 pick in the draft lottery.

We're actually more likely to win the lottery than to drop even 2 spots. Assuming we finish 9th last, our most likely draft spot is:

9th (48.8%)
10th (30.7%)
3rd (5.7%)
2nd (5.3%)
1st (5.0%)
11th (4.3%)
12th (0.1%)

The draft lottery is way less punishing for us at 9th pick. Our average pick number actually goes up with the draft lottery, compared to the top 5 teams who on average go down.

 

[ginner classic]

The lower you are in the draft the harder it is to drop.

Dropping from 9 to 12th means that 3 teams picking between 10-15 won the draft lottery which is about 100 times less likely than us just winning a top-3 pick in the draft lottery.

We're actually more likely to win the lottery than to drop even 2 spots. Assuming we finish 9th last, our most likely draft spot is:

9th (48.8%)
10th (30.7%)
3rd (5.7%)
2nd (5.3%)
1st (5.0%)
11th (4.3%)
12th (0.1%)

The draft lottery is way less punishing for us at 9th pick. Our average pick number actually goes up with the draft lottery, compared to the top 5 teams who on average go down.

Too bad we can't have the 15th seed. We'd be guaranteed not to drop.

 

[Ita]

I thought of a similar scenario a little while back, based on the possibility of us winning #3 and NYR landing around 8.

My assumption was the thought NYR may value Podkolzin more than other teams as shown with there willingness to draft Kravstov.

So a possiblity of #3 to NYR for #8 +WPG 1st #26-31?

If we landed #3 it all depends on the player available that teams covet the most, Podkolzin, Byram and Cozens would have intrest from many teams looking to move up, But I would only move down if the team was selecting Podkolzin as he is on my DND list and I would not move out of the top 10.

This is awful value for us.

Look at historically the difference in talent between 3rd and the 8th. Unless the Winnipeg’s 1st is a homerun pick this will be a trade we regret for a long time.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

Too bad we can't have the 15th seed. We'd be guaranteed not to drop.

Don't you fear, with the season out of reach 4p Loui Eriksson is on the case.

 

[Skirbs1011]

This is awful value for us.

Look at historically the difference in talent between 3rd and the 8th. Unless the Winnipeg’s 1st is a homerun pick this will be a trade we regret for a long time.

I tend to greatly disagree with you.

So just for context my idea was proposed around what ever team at 3 was taking Podkolzin, the Russian who started he may not be interest in coming to the nhl.

so like I said in OP it was #8 and wpg 1st we will use #25 as that's where they are in the standing for #3

now lets look historically and I will go back the last 5 drafts.
2014: Leon Draisaitl for William Nylander and David Pasternak
2015: Dylan Strome for Zach Werenski and Jack Roslovic
2016: Pierre Lucas Dubois for Alex Nylander and Riley Tufte
2017: Miro heiskanen for Casey Mittlestadt and Ryan Poehling
2018: Jesperi Kotkaniemi for Adam Boqvist and Dominik Bokk

Deals don't seem so horrible like you make it sound, lost of prospects still need to hit full stride in the 16,17 and 18 deals but I would take the gamble in most situations if there was a Russian player with uncertainty.

 

[Icebreakers]

If we pick 3rd would you trade it for Brady Tkachuk?

 

[Foundational Player]

Hey folks,

Wondering if anyone has heard when tickets to the entry draft this summer will be available to the public for purchase?

Figure season ticket holders will get first dibs but wondering if anyone has any info?

 

[Alexander Edler]

Need someone to laugh with me just got told on canucks reddit that this is a stacked draft. Please help me in the Pejorative Sluration that I was on there and for them themselves.

 

[clunk]

Need someone to laugh with me just got told on canucks reddit that this is a stacked draft. Please help me in the ******ation that I was on there and for them themselves.

When arguing with those people, always understand that they are akin to shills for this management group/franchise direction. I guarantee you whoever said that hasn't done any research on the players in this draft. Whether it was 'stacked' or not, never trust those people, ever. The only reason they are saying it's 'stacked' is because they want to be 'positive' when many fans are fed up that this team is winning useless games that will worsen our pick. It's damage control, essentially.

 

[JanBulisPiggyBack]

When arguing with those people, always understand that they are akin to shills for this management group/franchise direction. I guarantee you whoever said that hasn't done any research on the players in this draft. Whether it was 'stacked' or not, never trust those people, ever. The only reason they are saying it's 'stacked' is because they want to be 'positive' when many fans are fed up that this team is winning useless games that will worsen our pick. It's damage control, essentially.

I would say that this draft is very top heavy with Kakko and Hughes and then podkolzon and Byram, then a solid group to round out the top ten. 5-10 is a crappy place to be drafting, unless you know for certain who you want I don’t really care which player we get. Caufield looks good to me but he could be a 10-15 pick
at least around 35 you hope to get one of the defensemen who fell out of the 1st round.

 

[MS]

This year’s 1-3 look like a normal year’s 3-5 and this year’s 4-10 look like a normal 10-16. It’s a very weak draft.

 

[strattonius]

Perhaps I'm wrong when I say this; but if we are picking in the 8-10 range, isnt it only possible to drop 1 spot (to a team that wins the lottery)?

I keep seeing this rhetoric of dropping 2 or 3 spots while I was under the impression that most shuffling is the top 5 (because many teams can win the lottery behind).

 

[Bleach Clean]

Not that I have inside information, but most reports I've read on Soderstrom read like "smart defenseman, plays within his means" sort of thing. He doesn't have a dynamic offensive toolbox, but does make effective outlet passes and skates the puck when needed. I just think in our likely pick range there will probably be a forward I'd rather select. Seider I more or less feel the same way about. Heinola I haven't read as much about, but seems intriguing. Like Kokkonen, really good numbers in SM-Liiga.

My Top-10 would be something like:
Hughes/Kakko
Bryam/Turcotte
Zegras/Krebs/Cozens/Dach/Boldy/Caulfield

I don't have any of the defensemen rated super highly, but I could be convinced. There's a lot of other defenseman for consideration in mid round too like Cam York, Harley, Robertson. It's entirely likely that a few of the defensemen will pan out better than the forwards I have rated, but outside of the top-four it seems pretty difficult to tier this draft class.

More picks would make things easier, but that's a pipe dream.

I tend to judge drafts based upon the relative strength of each league first, rather than the ultimate upside in each player. It's not a hard and fast rule. Rather, it's something that's constantly in mind when evaluating talent.

For example, Kirby Dach could be Joe Thornton at the absolute top end, but I don't expect him to get there. He's not performing at a level to suggest it in a relatively weaker league. Yet, he's got all the tools...

I think you have to devalue the CHL talent this year. With earlier conversations with @pitseleh, and with some data thrown out by @Melvin, it seems like the CHL forwards don't quite stack up. The debate is around Byram being as high as he is, but he's the top guy.

After that, it's about positioning the talent from the DEL, SHL and USHL within the top10. That's where Soderstrom, Seider, Heinola and Kokkonen need to be considered. The upside may not be there, but the likelihood of conversion to becoming a solid NHLer is there. These players are playing in mens leagues around the world and are holding their own (not the USHL). That means a great deal. In fact, I would consider taking Soderstrom as early as pick #6 in this draft.

 

[timw33]

Perhaps I'm wrong when I say this; but if we are picking in the 8-10 range, isnt it only possible to drop 1 spot (to a team that wins the lottery)?

I keep seeing this rhetoric of dropping 2 or 3 spots while I was under the impression that most shuffling is the top 5 (because many teams can win the lottery behind).

We could still drop 3 spots if 3 teams that finish higher in the standings (lets say we're 9th last and the 10th 11th 12th teams all win the lottery) win each of the lotteries. It's statistically unlikely though that we'd drop the max 3 this time, but let's just assume we do for purposes of setting reasonable expectations.

 

[strattonius]

We could still drop 3 spots if 3 teams that finish higher in the standings (lets say we're 9th last and the 10th 11th 12th teams all win the lottery) win each of the lotteries. It's statistically unlikely though that we'd drop the max 3 this time, but let's just assume we do for purposes of setting reasonable expectations.

I watched a video that explained the lottery so I understand now.
For 3 teams in the 8-10 range to all win the lottery, the odds would be close to 1 in 100,000

 

[timw33]

I watched a video that explained the lottery so I understand now.
For 3 teams in the 8-10 range to all win the lottery, the odds would be close to 1 in 100,000

I think the odds for the scenario that unfolded at the 2017 draft lottery were something insane too, with the 5, 8, and 13 spots winning.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

I'm going to bang the drum on Come Caulfield if the Canucks are drafting in the 10 range or later

 

[ginner classic]

This year’s 1-3 look like a normal year’s 3-5 and this year’s 4-10 look like a normal 10-16. It’s a very weak draft.

I think the 6-10 is a little bit stronger than average. It's certainly not as good as last year which was originally billed as a weak draft. I think where this draft really fails is 21-60. There is so little quality in that range. Other than goalies it appears really weak.

I was really getting comfortable with those strong second rounds from 2014 to 2017. Too bad we didn't want to acquire draft picks.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

This year’s 1-3 look like a normal year’s 3-5 and this year’s 4-10 look like a normal 10-16. It’s a very weak draft.

Why do you say that about the top 3?

I think the top 2 is equatable to a lot of years. Hughes and Kakko look great. 3-10 are looking very "average" but there is still a lot potential in that group.

 

[Gaunce4gm]

What are the chances Caufield is available in the 2nd round like Debrincat?

 

[bossram]

I tend to judge drafts based upon the relative strength of each league first, rather than the ultimate upside in each player. It's not a hard and fast rule. Rather, it's something that's constantly in mind when evaluating talent.

For example, Kirby Dach could be Joe Thornton at the absolute top end, but I don't expect him to get there. He's not performing at a level to suggest it in a relatively weaker league. Yet, he's got all the tools...

I think you have to devalue the CHL talent this year. With earlier conversations with @pitseleh, and with some data thrown out by @Melvin, it seems like the CHL forwards don't quite stack up. The debate is around Byram being as high as he is, but he's the top guy.

After that, it's about positioning the talent from the DEL, SHL and USHL within the top10. That's where Soderstrom, Seider, Heinola and Kokkonen need to be considered. The upside may not be there, but the likelihood of conversion to becoming a solid NHLer is there. These players are playing in mens leagues around the world and are holding their own (not the USHL). That means a great deal. In fact, I would consider taking Soderstrom as early as pick #6 in this draft.

I definitely understand the strength of league stuff. But I've come around to more tools-based/upside drafting than the analytic/likelihood of success models of late. I think a guy like Soderstrom has a likely higher chance of making it, but what does he become?

With a question of something like Caulfield vs. Soderstrom for example, I think the spread of possibilities is much larger for a guy like Caulfield. In rudimentary stats terms, his confidence interval is a lot smaller, but he has wider tails at both ends. Whereas I would think Soderstrom's "mean" outcome is at a higher baseline, but with less variance toward the tail ends.

My drafting philosophy is to prioritize that "tail-end" upside over average likelihood of success. The draft is really the only place where you can ever find cost-controlled star talent. So that's what I would hunt for. If you're a smart GM, you can find effective complementary players elsewhere. So I would disproportionately emphasize that tail-end upside.

I'd rather take a chance on a guy who has a (small) chance at being a star than a likely middle-of-the-lineup player. And there's a chance that those failed star draft picks end up as a middle-of the-lineup player as well. It reminds me of the JV vs. Nylander/Ehlers debates of 2014.

That said, I do think all of Soderstrom, Kokkonen, and Heinola are worthy first round picks. Would I take them in the top-third though? I'm not sure.

Side Note: I used Caulfield in my examples rather than a guy like Dach because, in all honestly, I'm not that high on Dach either.

 

[Cupless44]

Warming up to the idea of Krebs in 8-10 range. High IQ, skating and high compete level. Sounds like Green would actually play him

 

[timw33]

Sounds like Green would actually play him

Hot tip: don't base a draft decision on anything relating to who the current NHL coach of your team is.