2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[BlueMed]

Colorado is capable of beating us.

I'd like our chances against anyone in the West but I'd never say that team x isnt capable of beating us.

You're right. Anaheim, Chicago, and LA could all realistically beat a fully healthy Blues team in a 7 game series. You're totally right about that.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Any playoff team can knock us out. Short series have an amount of randomness so better team doesn't always win. Ask Tampa and Washington how it went last season. That said, we are the best team in the West and the likeliest team to win the Conference. But that means we have like a 20-30% chance of doing so. #noguarantees

 

[BlueMed]

Any playoff team can knock us out. Short series have an amount of randomness so better team doesn't always win. Ask Tampa and Washington how it went last season. That said, we are the best team in the West and the likeliest team to win the Conference. But that means we have like a 20-30% chance of doing so. #noguarantees

Tampa lost in 4 straight. They were straight up OUTCLASSED that series. I'm not going to say that it's impossible for Colorado to beat us, but I would be a little surprised if they do.

 

[Brian39]

Tampa lost in 4 straight. They were straight up OUTCLASSED that series. I'm not going to say that it's impossible for Colorado to beat us, but I would be a little surprised if they do.

In less than 2 hours you have gone from "If Boston couldn't take us out in 7 games, then I don't think the Avalanche can currently" to "I'd be a little surprised if they do."

That's literally what everyone has been saying to you. No one here is saying Colorado would be a huge favorite or that the Blues don't stand a chance. We have been saying that they are capable of being the team that derails a run to the SCF for us and until this last post you have been claiming that they aren't even close and couldn't do it.

If I was putting money on the winner of the Western Conference today, it would be on the Blues. But this is a sport where crazy things happen in the playoffs and Colorado is a good enough team that it will be a damn good series with them. I think they are the biggest threat other than the Blues to come out of the West.

 

[BlueMed]

In less than 2 hours you have gone from "If Boston couldn't take us out in 7 games, then I don't think the Avalanche can currently" to "I'd be a little surprised if they do."

That's literally what everyone has been saying to you. No one here is saying Colorado would be a huge favorite or that the Blues don't stand a chance. We have been saying that they are capable of being the team that derails a run to the SCF for us and until this last post you have been claiming that they aren't even close and couldn't do it.

If I was putting money on the winner of the Western Conference today, it would be on the Blues. But this is a sport where crazy things happen in the playoffs and Colorado is a good enough team that it will be a damn good series with them. I think they are the biggest threat other than the Blues to come out of the West.

No one really thinks that the probability of Colorado beating us is literally zero. Of course, anything can happen, especially in the playoffs, but people have discussions based on significant possibilities including losing to Dallas, Winnipeg, and Vegas. Colorado isn't really in that same discussion based on reasons mentioned above. This is where we disagree.

 

[BlueMed]

I think Dallas or Winnipeg could beat St. Louis. I don't think Colorado can. They haven't beaten this team since the Blues pulled the plug on the season by trading Stastny and simply don't have the defense. Girard and Cole were a ****-show last night, and have been for most of the season. Makar is awesome...but he can't do it alone. They need to get Muzzin or another top-4 D before I take that team seriously. They'll outgun a lot of teams this season that don't have an answer to MacKinnon and Rantanen...but when they face teams that do know how to handle them (like Carolina did last night), they'll be exposed. The playoffs are full of teams that can take them down. Calgary wasn't one. Color me unimpressed.

They're going to be dominant very soon with Byram and Timmins coming. But they'll need a few years to learn the league before they're ready to dominate it. If they get a veteran to help now...maybe the timeline moves up.

I agree with the general point of this. Anything can happen, but it would be pretty unlikely for Colorado to beat us in a 7 game series. Dallas and Winnipeg are larger threats.

 

[Mike Liut]

If we don’t get good goaltending, we’d lose to anybody.

 

[Brockon]

Really? We could have realistically lost against San Jose? Same team that beat the Avalanche in 7. Winnipeg pushed us at times, but we did the same to Chicago and still lost similarly in 6 games. If you lose in 6 games, the margin of victory was not razor thin, sorry. I included Dallas because they actually almost beat us in Game 7 with that wraparound attempt, but let's not pretend that these series are a coin flip. The Blues were the better team every series and the results showed that.

I think it's disingenuous to compare what Colorado did last season with blatant holes in their roster versus a SJ with a healthy EK and Hertl in the full series to the SJ squad insisting on playing a wounded EK, Wounded Pavelski and missing Hertl for the back half of the series... Remember how tight our first few games were when SJ was mostly healthy? Before they were down 3 major components of their top 10 (top 6F and top 4D).

Colorado added a 2C in Kadri, added 2 top 6 wingers in Donskoi and Burakovsky, added some vet grit and leadership with Bellemare... Many of these address the blatant holes that lead to their loss to SJ.

 

[Klank Loves You]

I think it's disingenuous to compare what Colorado did last season with blatant holes in their roster versus a SJ with a healthy EK and Hertl in the full series to the SJ squad insisting on playing a wounded EK, Wounded Pavelski and missing Hertl for the back half of the series... Remember how tight our first few games were when SJ was mostly healthy? Before they were down 3 major components of their top 10 (top 6F and top 4D).

Colorado added a 2C in Kadri, added 2 top 6 wingers in Donskoi and Burakovsky, added some vet grit and leadership with Bellemare... Many of these address the blatant holes that lead to their loss to SJ.

Not that I disagree with the sentiment, but the Blues style wears an opponent down over the course of a 7 game series. Everyone is going to look better vs us in games 1 and 2 vs 5 and 6.

 

[execwrite1]

Looking at the overall Western Conference in late December, the Blues are clearly the dominant force. And they can play better. And add Tarasenko to a playoff roster and they're even more potent.

If they can create some more distance from Colorado, they are heading toward a Western Conference championship and home ice throughout. There are no Western powerhouses this season.

The Blues are 15-2-3 against Western teams. Statement made - Stanley Cup hangover averted.

 

[Stealth JD]

Looking at the overall Western Conference in late December, the Blues are clearly the dominant force. And they can play better. And add Tarasenko to a playoff roster and they're even more potent.

If they can create some more distance from Colorado, they are heading toward a Western Conference championship and home ice throughout. There are no Western powerhouses this season.

The Blues are 15-2-3 against Western teams. Statement made - Stanley Cup hangover averted.

I know how quickly things in the league can change with a big trade, injuries or a coaching change, but I can't help but coming back to this exact notion; the Blues are the clear top-dog in the Conference, and provided they manage to re-sign the Captain and keep their payroll optimized, there's no reason this club can't remain a force for the next half-decade, minimum. Even as guys like ROR, Tarasenko, Schwartz and Schenn move into their early 30's, they, like Perron, should remain effective and productive; provided they have the next wave of youth to step into a larger role. Thomas, Blais, Kyrou, Barbashev, Dunn...these guys are all going to be salary-controlled for the next several years and again, I look back to those veteran Red Wing teams that had 2 kids and a goat (GOAT) and how they were able to transition from vets to youth and win Cups on each side of the timeline. That should be this franchise's goal and expectations. I'd love to see ROR or Schenn carry around their 4th or 5th Cup (from Petro) as they see Kyrou or Thomas win a Conn Smythe while in their prime.

A lot of players will surely come and go, but if you can constantly improve the bottom of your club and avoid over-investing in the wrong players, this absolutely should be doable; based on a current-day snap-shot of the league and based on their current position on the mountain-top.

 

[execwrite1]

I know how quickly things in the league can change with a big trade, injuries or a coaching change, but I can't help but coming back to this exact notion; the Blues are the clear top-dog in the Conference, and provided they manage to re-sign the Captain and keep their payroll optimized, there's no reason this club can't remain a force for the next half-decade, minimum. Even as guys like ROR, Tarasenko, Schwartz and Schenn move into their early 30's, they, like Perron, should remain effective and productive; provided they have the next wave of youth to step into a larger role. Thomas, Blais, Kyrou, Barbashev, Dunn...these guys are all going to be salary-controlled for the next several years and again, I look back to those veteran Red Wing teams that had 2 kids and a goat (GOAT) and how they were able to transition from vets to youth and win Cups on each side of the timeline. That should be this franchise's goal and expectations. I'd love to see ROR or Schenn carry around their 4th or 5th Cup (from Petro) as they see Kyrou or Thomas win a Conn Smythe while in their prime.

A lot of players will surely come and go, but if you can constantly improve the bottom of your club and avoid over-investing in the wrong players, this absolutely should be doable; based on a current-day snap-shot of the league and based on their current position on the mountain-top.

Would be very helpful also to swing a trade like Colorado did with Duchene and find a way to steal a bad team's high draft pick to help replenish the pipeline. Also important to maximize Allen's value and get a 1st round pick for him in the off season. Keeping Allen is tempting but probably a luxury.

Keeping Petro's new contract at a reasonable AAV also critical.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Don’t look now, but Schwartz is back on his normal 20 goal, 60 point pace.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Don’t look now, but Schwartz is back on his normal 20 goal, 60 point pace.

Save a couple hatties for the post-season!

 

[Ranksu]

Just noticed Schwartz hasn't ever played in his career full of 82 regular season games in one season.

 

[execwrite1]

Don't know why but I'm becoming wildly optimistic that Tarasenko will be back in time this year. Five months post-surgery gets him to April 1.

Seems like he could be able to rehab and ready to roll for the last two weeks of the regular season.

At first it seemed the wisest thing would be to hold him over for next season but if he's ready - we need him in the playoffs.

 

[Ridge1982]

I’m a long time reader, and some of you remind me of STL Rams fans during the Greatest Show era. We all thought they were a dynasty in the making. Slow your rolls. There’s a reason The Cup is the toughest title to win in all of sports.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’m a long time reader, and some of you remind me of STL Rams fans during the Greatest Show era. We all thought they were a dynasty in the making. Slow your rolls. There’s a reason The Cup is the toughest title to win in all of sports.

Except the Blues have good owners and good management and draft really well. The Rams didn’t have any of these. The Rams lucked out with Warner and the Faulk trade.

 

[Bluesfan54]

I’m a long time reader, and some of you remind me of STL Rams fans during the Greatest Show era. We all thought they were a dynasty in the making. Slow your rolls. There’s a reason The Cup is the toughest title to win in all of sports.

Hey, it's Christmas! We all have sugarplums dancing in our heads! Reality will rear it's ugly head soon enough.

 

[Mike Liut]

Last years team didn’t have Faulk, Kyrou and this years version of Thomas. I think this years team is better, even without Tarasenko.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I’m a long time reader, and some of you remind me of STL Rams fans during the Greatest Show era. We all thought they were a dynasty in the making. Slow your rolls. There’s a reason The Cup is the toughest title to win in all of sports.

Welcome!

You’re telling this to a fan base that waited 52 years for this. The Blues fans are not the Rams fans. We are all too familiar with how hard it is to win a Cup and his fragile hopes can be. But the Blues ARE contenders right now.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Don't know why but I'm becoming wildly optimistic that Tarasenko will be back in time this year. Five months post-surgery gets him to April 1.

Seems like he could be able to rehab and ready to roll for the last two weeks of the regular season.

At first it seemed the wisest thing would be to hold him over for next season but if he's ready - we need him in the playoffs.

I could see Tarasenko being more of a decoy when he returns, maybe on the 3rd line. I just don’t know how long it will be until he gets his shot timing and accuracy back up to snuff. But if he can at least be enough of a threat they have to honor, it might open up some matchups for other lines or for his linemates. One problem is that if Tarasenko isn’t scoring, other players do the other parts of the game better than he does.

 

[execwrite1]

I could see Tarasenko being more of a decoy when he returns, maybe on the 3rd line. I just don’t know how long it will be until he gets his shot timing and accuracy back up to snuff. But if he can at least be enough of a threat they have to honor, it might open up some matchups for other lines or for his linemates. One problem is that if Tarasenko isn’t scoring, other players do the other parts of the game better than he does.

I can't see them putting him on the ice if he isn't 100%

 

[Itsnotatrap]

All it takes is a couple of weeks of garbage goaltending for a massive portion of the fans to pin everything on them. The fact is we have had a couple stellar months of goaltending. Yes, the team is doing a lot of things well and they are legitimately good, but this goaltending is a huge part of what is creating separation too. Some look at this and think it is the normal state of things, but this is as good as it gets for goaltending.

All that to say that ruling out any team that earns a playoff spot is silly, because goaltending is erratic, and you can get out-goalied by anyone over a 4-7 game sample.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I can't see them putting him on the ice if he isn't 100%

100% healthy, but not 100% dangerous yet, is what I’m describing.