2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[BlueDream]

It’s 100 games in 100 days if you take out the days he didn’t play games.

It’s also crazy that he has played 100 games in 50 days if you take out more days but leave the games in. I wonder if that has ever been done before now.

 

[Note Worthy]

Good ol' JR.

 

[JoshFromMO]

It’s also crazy that he has played 100 games in 50 days if you take out more days but leave the games in. I wonder if that has ever been done before now.

He also won 16 post season games in 16 days if you exclude days he lost and days off

 

[MissouriMook]

Another fun fact: Binnington has won 16 of 26 games this season, exactly the same as in the playoffs last year. Cup defense confirmed.

 

[The Note]

Per the NHLPR this is the third fewest games (36) is taken a Blues team to reach 50 points in franchise history. Thought that was remarkable as kind of “ho-hum” the team has gone about it.

 

[JoshFromMO]

Great article advocating Petro for Norris consideration from Tierny
Petro's path to the Norris Trophy: Blues captain Alex...

 

[Stealth JD]

Great article advocating Petro for Norris consideration from Tierny
Petro's path to the Norris Trophy: Blues captain Alex...

Last thing the Blues need in the contract negotiations is a shiny Norris Trophy for which to compensate.

It's analytics like these that make me giggle when people draw conclusions from the data results. The "good" and "bad" quadrants for shots for instance. Petro's corsi in these situations is a function of his usage and the coach trying to optimize offensive and defensive matchups. From the article: "Pietrangelo is doing what an excellent defenseman is expected to do: limit chances allowed while also driving offensive opportunities." But if he were being tasked with shutting down McDavid, something tells me the stats wouldn't draw the same conclusions.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, it's no surprise that his offensive production and possession numbers picked up once they started using Parayko in more of the defensive role.

If he gets the Norris or is a finalist, there is a darn get chance he's going to go for a $10M cap number. I honestly don't see him doing that though.

 

[DeuceNine]

What's amazing about this season so far (and why the Central should be terrified) is the injury factor. We don't even have Tank, had major guys out for various reasons and yet here we sit. Fantastic coaching and leadership. This is a fully-gelled team.

 

[bleedblue1223]

What's amazing about this season so far (and why the Central should be terrified) is the injury factor. We don't even have Tank, had major guys out for various reasons and yet here we sit. Fantastic coaching and leadership. This is a fully-gelled team.

We have 4th liners that can go up on the top 6 lines and produce at a 40 point pace. That's scary.

 

[Stealth JD]

What's amazing about this season so far (and why the Central should be terrified) is the injury factor. We don't even have Tank, had major guys out for various reasons and yet here we sit. Fantastic coaching and leadership. This is a fully-gelled team.

I've thought about this recently; and when you look around the rest of the league right now, the Blues are poised to be the Red Wings of the late-90's and early-00's. They're veteran led, and have most of their core on the correct side of 30 (for now) and locked up. They dictate how the game is going to be played, and when they're on their game they are too deep, too talented and too structured to be beaten by clubs that are 1) too young, 2) too poorly coached, 3) poorly constructed (or saddled with bad contracts), 4) over-matched talent-wise ...which describes most of the league at this point. We (Blues fans) could be in the middle of multiple Cups until some other teams step up and grow together, which can take a decade as Washington & STL have proven.

You have to give Berube a tremendous amount of credit for keeping these guys sharp and engaged and seemlessly integrating top-end youth into a well-oiled machine. These days they're all about fine-tuning their game, staying healthy and playing disciplined, well-executed hockey. The forward depth is envious, and the back-end (goalies throughout defense) is probably the best in professional hockey. There's no club in the West ready and able to step in front of this train to knock them from the playoffs. I see this team on a collision course with the Capitals in one of the all-time great Cup Finals.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I suspect Binnington might be dinged up. Based on the videos from Twitter he only participated in part of the practice today.

 

[Brian39]

I've thought about this recently; and when you look around the rest of the league right now, the Blues are poised to be the Red Wings of the late-90's and early-00's. They're veteran led, and have most of their core on the correct side of 30 (for now) and locked up. They dictate how the game is going to be played, and when they're on their game they are too deep, too talented and too structured to be beaten by clubs that are 1) too young, 2) too poorly coached, 3) poorly constructed (or saddled with bad contracts), 4) over-matched talent-wise ...which describes most of the league at this point. We (Blues fans) could be in the middle of multiple Cups until some other teams step up and grow together, which can take a decade as Washington & STL have proven.

You have to give Berube a tremendous amount of credit for keeping these guys sharp and engaged and seemlessly integrating top-end youth into a well-oiled machine. These days they're all about fine-tuning their game, staying healthy and playing disciplined, well-executed hockey. The forward depth is envious, and the back-end (goalies throughout defense) is probably the best in professional hockey. There's no club in the West ready and able to step in front of this train to knock them from the playoffs. I see this team on a collision course with the Capitals in one of the all-time great Cup Finals.

I disagree that there's no club in the West ready and able to step in front of us. The Avs are a damn good team, they are young and their salary structure is incredible. I get that we are 2-0 against them this year and looked good doing it. But both those games were at home and in one game they were down two top 4 D men (one of which has a legitimate chance of winning the Calder and has been a top 10 D man in the league so far). Rants went down early in the other game too. Don't get me wrong, we have had to overcome our fair share of injuries, but those 2 wins have not been enough to say that the Avs aren't capable of beating us in a 7 game series. I like our team more at the moment, but we don't know if we'll have 91 back by the time we meet the Avs in the playoffs and they have essentially unlimited cap space to bring in a rental if they want. With their current cap structure and the age of their core, they should be damn good for our entire Cup window. It is way too premature to say that they aren't capable of derailing our season this year.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the next few years are like 2012-2015 when the Kings and Hawks traded Cup Final appearances. I don't think Colorado is at that level today, but they very well could be at that level in 4 months.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I suspect Binnington might be dinged up. Based on the videos from Twitter he only participated in part of the practice today.

I mean, he has played 100 games in 100 days if you exclude the days that he didn't play.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

What's amazing about this season so far (and why the Central should be terrified) is the injury factor. We don't even have Tank, had major guys out for various reasons and yet here we sit. Fantastic coaching and leadership. This is a fully-gelled team.

I was thinking about this the other night. But the Blues haven’t had any significant losses in the back end. I think a healthy defense is the difference.

Heck, even the games with Allen in net don’t feel so iffy any more.

 

[Robb_K]

Per the NHLPR this is the third fewest games (36) is taken a Blues team to reach 50 points in franchise history. Thought that was remarkable as kind of “ho-hum” the team has gone about it.

Especially with 5 regular shift forwards (including their most prolific goal-scorer and 2 of thet-ir regular shift defencemen out for some time).

 

[Robb_K]

I was thinking about this the other night. But the Blues haven’t had any significant losses in the back end. I think a healthy defense is the difference.

Heck, even the games with Allen in net don’t feel so iffy any more.

I would call Gunnarsson being out a significant loss on the back end, but, the addition of Faulk and continued good play of Bortuzzo made up for that.

 

[Stealth JD]

I disagree that there's no club in the West ready and able to step in front of us. The Avs are a damn good team, they are young and their salary structure is incredible. I get that we are 2-0 against them this year and looked good doing it. But both those games were at home and in one game they were down two top 4 D men (one of which has a legitimate chance of winning the Calder and has been a top 10 D man in the league so far). Rants went down early in the other game too. Don't get me wrong, we have had to overcome our fair share of injuries, but those 2 wins have not been enough to say that the Avs aren't capable of beating us in a 7 game series. I like our team more at the moment, but we don't know if we'll have 91 back by the time we meet the Avs in the playoffs and they have essentially unlimited cap space to bring in a rental if they want. With their current cap structure and the age of their core, they should be damn good for our entire Cup window. It is way too premature to say that they aren't capable of derailing our season this year.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the next few years are like 2012-2015 when the Kings and Hawks traded Cup Final appearances. I don't think Colorado is at that level today, but they very well could be at that level in 4 months.

I like the Avs long-term, very much. But asking a defense relying upon Girard, Makar, Graves to carry the workload (EJ and Cole are both mediocre these days) on a Cup run is a monumental task. When Byram, Timmins, Makar & Girard are all 3-5 year vets, I'll be concerned...because by then they'll probably have added another two top-9 forwards. But they simply aren't there yet.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, Colorado is a ticking time bomb before they destroy the league IMO.

 

[Brian39]

I like the Avs long-term, very much. But asking a defense relying upon Girard, Makar, Graves to carry the workload (EJ and Cole are both mediocre these days) on a Cup run is a monumental task. When Byram, Timmins, Makar & Girard are all 3-5 year vets, I'll be concerned...because by then they'll probably have added another two top-9 forwards. But they simply aren't there yet.

EJ is currently about as good as J-Bo was last year. He is not an elite D, but he is absolutely an average-to-above-average top 4 D man who can comfortably give you 22 quality defensive minutes a night. EJ plays more minutes than any of their D when healthy, is playing a more shutdown role than in the past and is still a pretty darn good D man. He is not an afterthought to that D group and acting like he is just some mediocre, sheltered guy isn't accurate. Cole is nothing special, but he has been an excellent complimentary piece this year when paired with objectively better D men. He has 14 points already, an expected +/- of +3, adequate possession numbers (total and relative) and is doing all that while starting 66% of his shifts in the D zone. He's not playing any worse than our complimentary D like Gunnar, Ed and Bortz did last year. Since that is his role, he shouldn't be viewed as a liability and a reason they can't be successful.

Their D is young and I wouldn't put my money on them to win 4 rounds. But I think they are absolutely good enough (when paired with an offense that is absurdly good) to win 2 or 3 rounds, which is what we are talking about. Barring a regular season collapse for one of us, I don't see the Blues or Avs falling to the Wild Card and moving to the Pacific. So we're talking about whether their D group is good enough to hold up for 2 rounds, not if they are good enough to still be doing it in the 4th round.

 

[Stealth JD]

EJ is currently about as good as J-Bo was last year. He is not an elite D, but he is absolutely an average-to-above-average top 4 D man who can comfortably give you 22 quality defensive minutes a night. EJ plays more minutes than any of their D when healthy, is playing a more shutdown role than in the past and is still a pretty darn good D man. He is not an afterthought to that D group and acting like he is just some mediocre, sheltered guy isn't accurate. Cole is nothing special, but he has been an excellent complimentary piece this year when paired with objectively better D men. He has 14 points already, an expected +/- of +3, adequate possession numbers (total and relative) and is doing all that while starting 66% of his shifts in the D zone. He's not playing any worse than our complimentary D like Gunnar, Ed and Bortz did last year. Since that is his role, he shouldn't be viewed as a liability and a reason they can't be successful.

Their D is young and I wouldn't put my money on them to win 4 rounds. But I think they are absolutely good enough (when paired with an offense that is absurdly good) to win 2 or 3 rounds, which is what we are talking about. Barring a regular season collapse for one of us, I don't see the Blues or Avs falling to the Wild Card and moving to the Pacific. So we're talking about whether their D group is good enough to hold up for 2 rounds, not if they are good enough to still be doing it in the 4th round.

Half of the Colorado fans can't wait for EJ to be gone, and hope he waives his NMC for Seattle. He's a glorified PK'er and shot-blocker, but is top-4 only because of an absence of better options. I don't disagree as to whether Colorado can win a series or two...they absolutely can. I don't think they pose a realistic threat of beating the Blues in a best of 7 when their defense is so green and their forward depth is so unbalanced. They are very clearly entering their Cup-contention window, and maybe a hot goalie can steal them a Cup ahead of schedule. But the Blues are right at their peak, atop the NHL mountain, and are poised to swat away all comers for the next couple of seasons, provided the Captain is retained. Colorado could acquire Hedman & McDavid tomorrow and change all of that...but the Blues are clearly the top-dog. I don't see that changing this season.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I would call Gunnarsson being out a significant loss on the back end, but, the addition of Faulk and continued good play of Bortuzzo made up for that.

If Gunnarsson is a significant loss on D, then there is no loss which would be considered insignificant. I don’t think there is enough (maybe not any) drop off going to Bortuzzo to consider it a loss of any consequence.

 

[Renard]

Jake Allen plays a home game for the Blues, and is the game's first star. Who saw this coming, Allen going from the consensus whipping boy to reliable backup?

Goaltenders are SO hard to figure.

 

[Robb_K]

If Gunnarsson is a significant loss on D, then there is no loss which would be considered insignificant. I don’t think there is enough (maybe not any) drop off going to Bortuzzo to consider it a loss of any consequence.

I agree that Bortuzzo, averaging his better and weaker games isn't much of a dropoff (if any) from Gunnersson's average game anymore. I just meant that the loss of the team's best forward, plus 4 more (top 12) starting forwards (all who are top 9 or better quality) plus losing a regular starting top 6 defenceman, is a lot to lose, and quite incridible that The Blues could lose all those players and still have the best record in their conference (and be tied for Top 3 in The whole NHL).

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Jake Allen plays a home game for the Blues, and is the game's first star. Who saw this coming, Allen going from the consensus whipping boy to reliable backup?

Goaltenders are SO hard to figure.

I did!

Dammit, I’ve been ridiculed several times for saying Allen’s contract wasn’t so bad and that he would be a desirable back-up. And that his last year can be moved in trade easily. Right now, it would be a plus value asset that returns something worthwhile.

He’s got his flaws, and I’m glad Binnington is the starter. But Allen has a place on this team, and he’s making a valuable contribution.