2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[Stealth JD]

Allen is playing well...but we all know how this song goes. Blues would be wise to sell high at the first opportunity of shedding that final year of contract while getting value in return. I can understand that not happening until the off-season...but I can also understand doing it today if there was a deal that made sense and we had a viable backup option ready to go (the biggest concern).

 

[Brian39]

Half of the Colorado fans can't wait for EJ to be gone, and hope he waives his NMC for Seattle. He's a glorified PK'er and shot-blocker, but is top-4 only because of an absence of better options. I don't disagree as to whether Colorado can win a series or two...they absolutely can. I don't think they pose a realistic threat of beating the Blues in a best of 7 when their defense is so green and their forward depth is so unbalanced. They are very clearly entering their Cup-contention window, and maybe a hot goalie can steal them a Cup ahead of schedule. But the Blues are right at their peak, atop the NHL mountain, and are poised to swat away all comers for the next couple of seasons, provided the Captain is retained. Colorado could acquire Hedman & McDavid tomorrow and change all of that...but the Blues are clearly the top-dog. I don't see that changing this season.

And well over half of our fans had the exact same sentiment towards J-Bo for 2 years. My point is that when you are asking EJ to be your 3rd, 4th or 5th D man, he is above average in that role and is not just a useless spare part. The Avs are 8th in the NHL in goals against per game. Their D isn't elite, but it is far better than just some collection of green rookies and no support.

I don't see how their forward depth is unbalanced. Donskoi has 27 points in 34 games (65 point pace). Burakovski has 24 points in 31 games (63 point pace). Kadri has 22 points in 31 games (58 point pace). Calvert has 17 points in 27 games (51 point pace). Compher has 17 points in 31 games (45 point pace). Nieto has 15 points in 34 games (36 point pace). That's a hell of a middle 6 group, especially when you are also rolling out the 2nd best top line in hockey. Including Landy (who they've put with Mac/Rants), that gives them 7 forwards who are on a 50+ point pace. This isn't last year's Avalanche who had a poor middle 6. They addressed the middle 6 over the summer and have a very, very solid top 9 now. For comparison, we currently have 4 forwards at a 50+ point pace. Take away every one of MacKinnon's goals this year and the Avs would still be tied for 17th in goals for this season and just 7 behind the Blues (with 2 fewer games played). I think you are vastly underestimating their middle 6.

 

[Meatball]

Fine with Allen as a backup if he keeps playing like he did last night.

As to the rest of the conference, there's no one who puts the fear of God into me like those Kings teams did, but I'm not overlooking them either.

These aren't the same old Blues anymore, bring em on!

 

[BlueMed]

I disagree that there's no club in the West ready and able to step in front of us. The Avs are a damn good team, they are young and their salary structure is incredible. I get that we are 2-0 against them this year and looked good doing it. But both those games were at home and in one game they were down two top 4 D men (one of which has a legitimate chance of winning the Calder and has been a top 10 D man in the league so far). Rants went down early in the other game too. Don't get me wrong, we have had to overcome our fair share of injuries, but those 2 wins have not been enough to say that the Avs aren't capable of beating us in a 7 game series. I like our team more at the moment, but we don't know if we'll have 91 back by the time we meet the Avs in the playoffs and they have essentially unlimited cap space to bring in a rental if they want. With their current cap structure and the age of their core, they should be damn good for our entire Cup window. It is way too premature to say that they aren't capable of derailing our season this year.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the next few years are like 2012-2015 when the Kings and Hawks traded Cup Final appearances. I don't think Colorado is at that level today, but they very well could be at that level in 4 months.

The Avs have a bright future ahead, but they currently don't have the depth, defensemen, grit, experience, coaching, or team-resilience necessary to beat us is a 7 game series. Period.

In the 90s, we as Blues fans never wanted to play the Avs or Wings in the playoffs.

In the 2010s, we as Blues fans never wanted to play the Blackhawks or Kings in the playoffs.

The Blues are now that Juggernaut that no one in the West wants to face.

 

[Brockon]

The Avs have a bright future ahead, but they currently don't have the depth, defensemen, grit, experience, coaching, or team-resilience necessary to beat us is a 7 game series. Period.

In the 90s, we as Blues fans never wanted to play the Avs or Wings in the playoffs.

In the 2010s, we as Blues fans never wanted to play the Blackhawks or Kings in the playoffs.

The Blues are now that Juggernaut that no one in the West wants to face.

I'm not sure you've looked objectively at the Avs roster recently...

Depth is something they've absolutely addressed and while they don't matchup toe to toe with our depth, Colorado is no longer playing multiple players up a line or pairing... There's room for a top 6 upgrade with an elite player, but that's about it. Their defense could arguably use a better #2/#3 guy to push guys down a slot, but didn't suffer overly for missing EJ (who fills that 2/3 slot) for 13 games.

I think Colorado's D doesn't get enough recognition for its ability to play a transition game. They are absolutely going to surprise come playoffs. They were on the wrong side of a blown offside call from going to a game 7 OT and possibly advancing to the WCF last year - they've improved at every position since.

They've added grit bringing in Bellemare and Kadri, adding to some of the most physical players in their respective positions with Zadorov and Landeskog...

Experience is something that we won without last year - defeating 2 of the most successful post season teams in the league in Boston and San Jose (seriously, look at their post season records). Previously, we had 1 guy who had played in a SCF and a handful that had been in the WCF - lining up against Boston and their wealth of experience - it's not as big a factor as it gets made out to be... Ask Washington. Or Vegas for the flip side of the coin - their experience facing adversity didn't allow them to overcome one of the worst calls I've seen in the playoffs this decade.

But sure, Colorado looks lacking in experience and coaching. Absolutely there's room for improvement - again, not overly different from us in the past.

 

[BlueMed]

I'm not sure you've looked objectively at the Avs roster recently...

Depth is something they've absolutely addressed and while they don't matchup toe to toe with our depth, Colorado is no longer playing multiple players up a line or pairing... There's room for a top 6 upgrade with an elite player, but that's about it. Their defense could arguably use a better #2/#3 guy to push guys down a slot, but didn't suffer overly for missing EJ (who fills that 2/3 slot) for 13 games.

I think Colorado's D doesn't get enough recognition for its ability to play a transition game. They are absolutely going to surprise come playoffs. They were on the wrong side of a blown offside call from going to a game 7 OT and possibly advancing to the WCF last year - they've improved at every position since.

They've added grit bringing in Bellemare and Kadri, adding to some of the most physical players in their respective positions with Zadorov and Landeskog...

Experience is something that we won without last year - defeating 2 of the most successful post season teams in the league in Boston and San Jose (seriously, look at their post season records). Previously, we had 1 guy who had played in a SCF and a handful that had been in the WCF - lining up against Boston and their wealth of experience - it's not as big a factor as it gets made out to be... Ask Washington. Or Vegas for the flip side of the coin - their experience facing adversity didn't allow them to overcome one of the worst calls I've seen in the playoffs this decade.

But sure, Colorado looks lacking in experience and coaching. Absolutely there's room for improvement - again, not overly different from us in the past.

I have looked at Colorado's roster recently. They are a good team, but not true contenders. I think you try to address some of their relative deficiencies, but you don't have a lot of good evidence to work with. At the end of the day, they would get pushed around and man-handled in a series against us, probably resembling past Kings-Blues series. Then afterwards, their fans will probably call our players "dirty" like we did to Dustin Brown and company years back.

 

[The Note]

The Avs will probably lose Kadri to a suspension midway through the first round anyway.

All jokes aside, I think the Avalanche are very, very good and quite clearly the biggest threat in the west outside of the Blues.

 

[execwrite1]

The Avs will probably lose Kadri to a suspension midway through the first round anyway.

All jokes aside, I think the Avalanche are very, very good and quite clearly the biggest threat in the west outside of the Blues.

Epic collapse by the Avs last nite. They need to beef up their backline before becoming Cup contenders, but they aren't far away. Next couple of years and they'll be a top challenger.

Don't have an elite goalie who can carry them through the playoff run.

 

[execwrite1]

Blues special teams on the right track. Last year - 10th on the PP, 9th in PK.

This year - 9th on the PP, 5th on the PK.

 

[The Note]

Epic collapse by the Avs last nite. They need to beef up their backline before becoming Cup contenders, but they aren't far away. Next couple of years and they'll be a top challenger.

Don't have an elite goalie who can carry them through the playoff run.

I will say, Makar is really good and him being out is a big loss for them. I think you can question if they're ready right now or if they could go through the grind of a full postseason, but like you said, they are not far off.

 

[Oberyn]

I think winning the Cup has gotten into some Blues fans heads. Are the Blues top contenders this year? Absolutely, but anything can happen in the playoffs. The Caps, one year after their Cup run, ended up losing in the first round to the Hurricanes. I could see several scenarios where the Avs beat the Blues in the playoffs (I would still favor the Blues).

 

[bleedblue1223]

I think winning the Cup has gotten into some Blues fans heads. Are the Blues top contenders this year? Absolutely, but anything can happen in the playoffs. The Caps, one year after their Cup run, ended up losing in the first round to the Hurricanes. I could see several scenarios where the Avs beat the Blues in the playoffs (I would still favor the Blues).

Exactly. While no team scares me, we could easily get swept because that's how close games are in the playoffs. It's incredibly difficult to repeat or get close to repeating.

The one thing that will really hold this team back is running into a hot goalie because with Tarasenko not at full strength, we probably won't have an elite scorer that can will us to a victory. Schwartz or Perron or Schenn or one of those guys might have a great series or a game, but we objectively lack the top-end scoring talent without Tarasenko.

 

[DatDude44]

Epic collapse by the Avs last nite. They need to beef up their backline before becoming Cup contenders, but they aren't far away. Next couple of years and they'll be a top challenger.

Don't have an elite goalie who can carry them through the playoff run.

they have Makar and EJ out still

 

[Brian39]

Epic collapse by the Avs last nite. They need to beef up their backline before becoming Cup contenders, but they aren't far away. Next couple of years and they'll be a top challenger.

Don't have an elite goalie who can carry them through the playoff run.

Giving up a 1-0 lead is an "epic collapse" now? Just to be clear, we just narrowly beat Edmonton 2-1 by allowing them to score with 1:50 left then were fortunate that Drai rang the post on a play that was a sure goal if he hit the top portion of the net. So if one of the league's best scorers didn't miss his shot through no impact by the Blues, that would have been an "epic collapse?" Or would it have been a double epic collapse since it would have been coughing up a 2 goal lead with 2 minutes left instead of a 1 goal lead with 3 minutes left?

 

[MissouriMook]

Jake Allen plays a home game for the Blues, and is the game's first star. Who saw this coming, Allen going from the consensus whipping boy to reliable backup?

Goaltenders are SO hard to figure.

So are fans.

 

[execwrite1]

Giving up a 1-0 lead is an "epic collapse" now? Just to be clear, we just narrowly beat Edmonton 2-1 by allowing them to score with 1:50 left then were fortunate that Drai rang the post on a play that was a sure goal if he hit the top portion of the net. So if one of the league's best scorers didn't miss his shot through no impact by the Blues, that would have been an "epic collapse?" Or would it have been a double epic collapse since it would have been coughing up a 2 goal lead with 2 minutes left instead of a 1 goal lead with 3 minutes left?

Yup - epic. It's an epic collapse when you surrender goals a minute 20 seconds apart with three minutes left to lose. In your example - the Blues won. NOT an epic collapse.

 

[Stealth JD]

I think winning the Cup has gotten into some Blues fans heads. Are the Blues top contenders this year? Absolutely, but anything can happen in the playoffs. The Caps, one year after their Cup run, ended up losing in the first round to the Hurricanes. I could see several scenarios where the Avs beat the Blues in the playoffs (I would still favor the Blues).

I think Dallas or Winnipeg could beat St. Louis. I don't think Colorado can. They haven't beaten this team since the Blues pulled the plug on the season by trading Stastny and simply don't have the defense. Girard and Cole were a shit-show last night, and have been for most of the season. Makar is awesome...but he can't do it alone. They need to get Muzzin or another top-4 D before I take that team seriously. They'll outgun a lot of teams this season that don't have an answer to MacKinnon and Rantanen...but when they face teams that do know how to handle them (like Carolina did last night), they'll be exposed. The playoffs are full of teams that can take them down. Calgary wasn't one. Color me unimpressed.

They're going to be dominant very soon with Byram and Timmins coming. But they'll need a few years to learn the league before they're ready to dominate it. If they get a veteran to help now...maybe the timeline moves up.

 

[Ranksu]

they have Makar and EJ out still

Last time I checked EJ played last night.

Carolina Hurricanes - Colorado Avalanche - December 19th, 2019

 

[BlueMed]

If Boston couldn't take us out in 7 games, then I don't think the Avalanche can currently. Boston had a better top line, better depth, better defense, better goaltending, and cup winning experience compared to the Avs right now. You need an excellent team to beat a fully healthy Blues squad in a 7 game series, and I don't think the Avs are ready for that right now. The teams from the West that have a chance include Vegas, Dallas, and Winnipeg. That's about it.

 

[Stealth JD]

If Boston couldn't take us out in 7 games, then I don't think the Avalanche can currently. Boston had a better top line, better depth, better defense, better goaltending, and cup winning experience compared to the Avs right now. You need an excellent team to beat a fully healthy Blues squad in a 7 game series, and I don't think the Avs are ready for that right now. The teams from the West that have a chance include Vegas, Dallas, and Winnipeg. That's about it.

Phoenix is young enough to not know better and structured enough to give the Blues fits. I'd say Arizona's chance of beating St. Louis is greater than Vegas'...not that either look all that likely.

 

[WeWentBlues]

If Boston couldn't take us out in 7 games, then I don't think the Avalanche can currently. Boston had a better top line, better depth, better defense, better goaltending, and cup winning experience compared to the Avs right now. You need an excellent team to beat a fully healthy Blues squad in a 7 game series, and I don't think the Avs are ready for that right now. The teams from the West that have a chance include Vegas, Dallas, and Winnipeg. That's about it.

Please stop. We could have lost any of the 4 series we won last year. The margin of victory is razor thin.

 

[BlueMed]

Please stop. We could have lost any of the 4 series we won last year. The margin of victory is razor thin.

Really? We could have realistically lost against San Jose? Same team that beat the Avalanche in 7. Winnipeg pushed us at times, but we did the same to Chicago and still lost similarly in 6 games. If you lose in 6 games, the margin of victory was not razor thin, sorry. I included Dallas because they actually almost beat us in Game 7 with that wraparound attempt, but let's not pretend that these series are a coin flip. The Blues were the better team every series and the results showed that.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Really? We could have realistically lost against San Jose? Same team that beat the Avalanche in 7. Winnipeg pushed us at times, but we did the same to Chicago and still lost similarly in 6 games. If you lose in 6 games, the margin of victory was not razor thin, sorry. I included Dallas because they actually almost beat us in Game 7 with that wraparound attempt, but let's not pretend that these series are a coin flip. The Blues were the better team every series and the results showed that.

Down 2-0 heading in to the 3rd period of Game 5 against WPG. Won the game in the waning seconds of regulation after Schenn had a skate malfunction and left the ice. Bozak, a right handed shot, jumps on the ice and makes the centering play to Schwartz that a left handed shot never makes.

Not to mention Goal 2 being counted as a good goal with the net becoming dislodged and Hayes almost making it 3-0. If we lost Game 5, who knows what happens.

I could write a similar narrative of just about every game that we won in the playoffs. The point is to quit acting like we are some invincible juggernaut that is incapable of losing in the playoffs. Anything can happen.

 

[BlueMed]

Down 2-0 heading in to the 3rd period of Game 5 against WPG. Won the game in the waning seconds of regulation after Schenn had a skate malfunction and left the ice. Bozak, a right handed shot, jumps on the ice and makes the centering play to Schwartz that a left handed shot never makes.

Not to mention Goal 2 being counted as a good goal with the net becoming dislodged and Hayes almost making it 3-0. If we lost Game 5, who knows what happens.

I could write a similar narrative of just about every game that we won in the playoffs. The point is to quit acting like we are some invincible juggernaut that is incapable of losing in the playoffs. Anything can happen.

How am I acting like we are invincible when I just wrote "The teams from the West that have a chance include Vegas, Dallas, and Winnipeg." I just listed 3 teams that could realistically beat us. Just because I am not including Colorado does not mean that I think we're invincible.

 

[WeWentBlues]

How am I acting like we are invincible when I just wrote "The teams from the West that have a chance include Vegas, Dallas, and Winnipeg." I just listed 3 teams that could realistically beat us. Just because I am not including Colorado does not mean that I think we're invincible.

Colorado is capable of beating us.

I'd like our chances against anyone in the West but I'd never say that team x isnt capable of beating us.