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2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

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542365 said:
Toews lost his man twice leading to goals for the Blues(second Bozak goal, and DLR game tying goal). He made a nice pass to Saad for the second goal and he won a ton of draws, but he was pretty much a net neutral on the game given his terrible defensive play.
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He wasn't perfect, no player ever is.

I disagree with you on the Bozek goal you mentioned. He was with Bozek all the way and had his stick tied up. The puck hit Bozak in the skate and bounced in. Pang and Kelly disagreed about it at first, but the replay showed the play clearly and Kelly wound up saying that there was no clear kicking action so the goal should count.

Prior to the pass to Saad, Bouwmeester had Toews one-on-one. Toews won the puck battle, got away, and then made the pass.
 
WeWentBlues said:
As long as he is paired with goal scorers, sky is the limit. He makes several plays per game like the three that found the back of the net last night. The difference last night is the prime scoring chances he creates weren't squandered. He should easily have 15-20 more assists this season that he does.
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That would put him at 27-32 assists, which would put him somewhere between 4th and 6th in the NHL. I strongly disagree with the notion that he would be a top 5 setup man in the league if he just had some better linemates that didn't squander the easy-to-bury setups. He has played some great hockey for stretches this year, but lets pump the brakes a little bit.

Every good playmaker has tons of great set-ups that get squandered, no matter who they are playing with. The vast majority of awesome set-ups still have less than a 50% chance of going in. Putting a shooter in a position that he has a 35% chance of scoring means you made an awesome play. It also means that the puck isn't going in almost two-thirds of the time.

Expected goals is far from a perfect stat, but it does tell a story. Thomas has 16 even strength points and an expected on-ice goals for total of 14.6 on the year. Nothing about those totals suggests that he has set up so many grade A chances that he should be sitting at 30+ points at the moment. While expected goals for doesn't do a good job analyzing the passes leading up to a shot, it is not so flawed that a good playmaker would be racking up twice as many points as the total number of goals they are expected to be on the ice for.

I'm thrilled with Thomas' play and I think he looks electric in the center role. I'm incredibly excited about his development trajectory and I think his ceiling is still that of a top line center. But he has not been playing at the level of an 80 point player this year.
 
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I don't know is this is the best thread to discuss it, but it feels like a catch all thread. Mods, feel free to move this post if you want.

Arizona just gave up a lottery protected 2020 1st rounder, 3 decent/adequate/middling prospects and a conditional 2021 3rd that has the potential to become a 2nd or even a 1st round pick if the win a playoff round and/or sign Hall to an extension.

I was happy to see Army in on Hall, but I'm happy we didn't outbid that. I have to think that the only way to outbid that would have meant including Kostin (plus the same picks) or giving away Arizona's choice of 3 out of the following list: Perunovich, Mikkola, Reinke, Husso, Toropchenko, and Alexandrov. Maybe we could have protected one guy from that list, but I doubt it given the 3 prospects Arizona gave up and the fact that most people would have probably bet on our 1st rounder ending up later than Arizona's if they had to bet on it excluding Hall from the mix.

I don't think Arizona necessarily overpaid, but our prospect pool has gotten shallow enough that I'm happy we didn't pay that cost. We're already down a 2nd rounder next year. Giving up a 1st rounder and another pick in the top 3 rounds over the next 2 years suddenly makes it real hard to replenish a a prospect pool that would have been reeeeeaaaally shallow after that trade.
 
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Renard said:
Robert Thomas has made Bozak look like an asset.
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They have real good chemistry.

Bozie is a good soldier though. You can move him around the lineup and he’s not flashy but he won’t ever really look out of place too. He tries hard. Wins faceoffs, kills penalties, is competent in both zones. Plus seems like a good locker room guy.

A possible cap casualty this offseason though.
 
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To add or not add to this team at or before the deadline?

This organization is so deep that I can't reach a decision on this question.

The fact that Army was in on Hall leads me to believe he will consider adding if the price is right.
 
WeWentBlues said:
To add or not add to this team at or before the deadline?

This organization is so deep that I can't reach a decision on this question.

The fact that Army was in on Hall leads me to believe he will consider adding if the price is right.
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I think we add if right opportunity. Army always at least kicks tire on impact players. If price is right he pounces, even if not dire need. Hence the Faulk deal. But I agree, not much we need at this point other than health and luck.
 
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Wouldn't mind throwing a 2nd rounder at a team if we can get a productive rental in return. Would like to hold onto Kyrou, Kostin, and Husso.
 
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Do you guys think Army will make another call on Kovalchuk? He's willing to sign for a league minimum deal.

I’ve watched enough of his games in LA in person to know he still has it. He just didn’t fit with their plan on going young. Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing Thomas dishing him one-timers every night, and he still has a rocket of a shot from that left circle.
 
CaliforniaBlues310 said:
Do you guys think Army will make another call on Kovalchuk? He's willing to sign for a league minimum deal.

I’ve watched enough of his games in LA in person to know he still has it. He just didn’t fit with their plan on going young. Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing Thomas dishing him one-timers every night, and he still has a rocket of a shot from that left circle.
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I'd take a flyer for under 1.5M
 
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CaliforniaBlues310 said:
Do you guys think Army will make another call on Kovalchuk? He's willing to sign for a league minimum deal.

I’ve watched enough of his games in LA in person to know he still has it. He just didn’t fit with their plan on going young. Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing Thomas dishing him one-timers every night, and he still has a rocket of a shot from that left circle.
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Maybe I'm missing something from watching on TV, but he has looked awful to me pretty much every time I have watched LA. I don't see him fitting into any of our lines at 5 on 5.
 
CaliforniaBlues310 said:
Do you guys think Army will make another call on Kovalchuk? He's willing to sign for a league minimum deal.

I’ve watched enough of his games in LA in person to know he still has it. He just didn’t fit with their plan on going young. Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing Thomas dishing him one-timers every night, and he still has a rocket of a shot from that left circle.
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If there was anyone I liked from LA, it would be Toffoli
 
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Brian39 said:
Maybe I'm missing something from watching on TV, but he has looked awful to me pretty much every time I have watched LA. I don't see him fitting into any of our lines at 5 on 5.
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I have season tickets(they were cheap this year) and went a decent amount last year, and while yes he isn’t the best defensively, he’s still pretty solid on offense, and very good on the PP.


Didn’t mean to double post, I’m just on my phone and this way was easier lol
 
I think it's borderline irresponsible to expect this team to repeat without a healthy Tarasenko in the playoffs, so for that reason I think Army trades for depth, whether it's Toffoli or Kreider or someone of similar talent, we need to replace the gaping hole in production from either Sanford or JDLR, preferably both.
 
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What about Justin Williams? Maybe that's the player we should be using Tarasenko's LTIR money on. We can pay him more than most cup contending teams.

Lebrun is quoted in a recent TSN article (https://www.tsn.ca/insider-trading-...talks-underway-with-edmonton-oilers-1.1414857)
"He could return, it’s not 100 per cent decided at all but he’s been ramping up his skating, skating by himself the last three to four weeks. And there has been talk back and forth between his camp and the Carolina Hurricanes. That certainly would be the team of choice, the frontrunner for Justin Williams if he decides to come back. However, the Hurricanes are tight against the cap. Remember they had the Patrick Marleau buyout and they signed Jake Gardiner in camp. They can’t sign him to that big of a deal. It will be interesting to me because I believe that his camp would also be willing to hear from other teams. Again, the priority is Carolina, but there could be other teams that reach out and make this interesting."
 
I just laughed out loud at this tweet. Yes, JR 100 games in the last 431 days is probably a lot, definitely the most that Binnington has played, but then saying he played 100 games in 320 days if you take out the off-season is just silly. The off-season days existed and his body was able to rest and recover during that time. I'm sure they watch his minutes as we want to make sure he's fresh for the playoffs and he's never had to carry a load like this, but that's a silly way of making a point.

 
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