2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning
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bleedblue1223
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- Jan 21, 2011
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Similar to how Thomas has 27 in his, it's probably just the number he wore in Juniors or at the time when he made the account.
Note Worthy
History Made
This is why I opted to get a Schenn jersey this year instead of Thomas. I don't know if 18 will be his permanent number or not. I bought a #9 Schwartz jersey one year before he changed it to 17.....
Obviously you can play safe with the vetertans. Schenn, ROR, Petro, Tarasenko etc aren't changing their numbers. But Blais, Thomas, Kyrou...I'd hold off purchasing a jersey from them for a bit. At least I am anyway.
JoshFromMO
Registered User
A Jersey blunder of my own was getting a Lehtera Jersey before Christmas of his rookie season when he was doing well and we all know how he was after that lol. This was enough for me to stop getting player jerseys.
bleedblue1223
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- Jan 21, 2011
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I wait until they've proven to be studs and I wouldn't regret having them if they move on to another team or they start to regress. A Parayko Winter Classic was probably my biggest "gamble". Besides that, I stick with studs and former players.
Had a friend who got a Perron jersey a couple months before he got traded to EDM. Friend was pissed at the time, but it seems to have paid off in the end
CoMoBlues
Registered User
I never get player names on my jerseys, mostly due to lockouts and work stoppages, as well as regular player movement.
StLewis11
Registered User
I'll probably get razzed over this, but when I get a jersey, I have it customized with my own last name on the back, with my favorite #
Keep in mind though, Thomas and Blais have already changed their numbers. Thomas from 36 to 18, and Blais from 64 to 9.
I wonder how many players have changed their number more than once. That would be an interesting fact to find out. I would think it’s not many.
Pretty funny “Blues Superlatives” article by JR where the guys voted for each other in certain categories. Perron seems to be the team goofball/punching bag. Guys were ribbing him quite a bit.
Bouwmeester won in a landslide for being in the best shape and is constantly in the weight room. Nobody else even got a vote. Which really explains why his career is still going strong.
Sanford and Sundqvist got the most votes for being drunkest at the parade. Well done, boys.
Bouwmeester won in a landslide for being in the best shape and is constantly in the weight room. Nobody else even got a vote. Which really explains why his career is still going strong.
Sanford and Sundqvist got the most votes for being drunkest at the parade. Well done, boys.
Brian39
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- Apr 24, 2014
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It is not.
Each year there are maybe 1-2 goalies who don't experience the type of slump Binner is in. Those guys are nominated for the Vezina, along with 1-2 guys who had a slump like this (or bigger) but also had runs of insanely hot play. This is being a starter in the NHL. Binner still has a .912, a 60% quality start rate, and a +3.85 GSAA.
Diving into advanced stats, let's filter out goalies with less than 900 minutes played at 5 on 5 to get our sample of the 40 goalies in the NHL with the most TOI. At 5 on 5, he has the 13th lowest expected SV% (which measures the quality of shots faced, not goalie's performance) and has faced the 11th most shots in the league. He is facing a difficult workload. The difference between his actual SV% and expected SV% is 12th. His 5 on 5 GSAA is 12th. He is 6th in high danger SV%, 9th in medium danger SV% and 20th in low danger SV%. You'd like that last number to come up a bit, but the difference between 10th and 20th in that stat is just .32% (98.03% to 97.71%). At the end of the day average to above average goalies are stopping low danger shots at roughly the same rate. We are probably talking about 1 extra low danger goal than the top 10 goalies at this point in the season. As that is the only non-above-average stat, that's not even remotely troubling.
Binner has had a soft few starts, but he is undoubtedly the starter. There is not a competition for the number 1 job here.
Jake has absolutely earned more starts. Binner had a really high workload in the first 3+ months of the season and is currently tied for 5th in starts. Given Allen's play, we should be deploying him like a top tier backup unless/until his play drops off. Halak has 22 starts this year. Khudobin has 17 starts this year. Both of them have outplayed their starter at times this year and both of them will undoubtedly be wearing baseball caps throughout the playoffs barring an injury. They are squarely backup goalies, but they play more games than your run of the mill backup. Allen deserves that role (and at 14 starts this year is on the cusp of it).
Allen has earned an extra game every couple weeks over the remainder of the season and there would be absolutely nothing wrong with giving him 60% or more of the starts over the next couple weeks if he stays hot and Binner doesn't. But that is not a goalie competition. That is riding the hot hand, which most teams do at some point in the year even when they are 100% confident about who plays game 1 of the first round.
execwrite1
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- Mar 30, 2018
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Season starts again tomorrow. Thirty-three games left starting with this tough four-game road trip.
A 2-2 split would be just fine.
A 2-2 split would be just fine.
Brouwer on waivers.
Might mean Blais could be returning soon...
Might mean Blais could be returning soon...
Stupendous Yappi
Idiot Control Now!
I don’t imagine there is any chance he gets claimed. And I’m sure the Blues will bring him up as post-season depth. Not a bad gig if you can get it.
Yeah, not bad to stash him as depth.
I want to see these lines:
Schwartz-Schenn-Kyrou
Blais-ROR-Perron
Steen-Thomas-Bozak
Mac-Barbashev-Sundqvist
This allows Sanford to be sort of a utility guy that can be plugged in different spots as needed. For example, if Kyrou gets scratched again or maybe Steen cools off and needs to be bumped back down to the 4th line. But for as much flak as Sanford gets, you’re in good shape if he’s your 13th forward. I really like the look of this lineup.
Does anyone else think that the Blues have regressed defensively a bit this year? We don't seem to be the defensive juggernaut that we were at the end of last season and in the playoffs. Dallas seems to have surpassed us in this respect this year. Could the personnel changes (*cough*, Faulk) have contributed to this? I know the stats say we are still good, (not excellent), defensively, but my eye test tells me we aren't as good as we can be, or have been.
Stupendous Yappi
Idiot Control Now!
The forwards aren’t playing as tight as they did/will in the postseason. Every team increases the intensity in the postseason.
we’ve seen some years past where the Blues were playing all out just to win regular season games, and had nothing in the tank at the end. I noticed OReilly’s interview during the ASG he talked about how confident the team was and how they thought they could be really good, but that they were just trying to get better and be playing their best hockey at the end of the year. Between the lines I think he was saying, “We aren’t playing our best right now.”
Brian39
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- Apr 24, 2014
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Yes and no.
Yes, we have given up more and better chances as a whole than we did in the final few months of last season and the playoffs. If you are just comparing this season so far to our best defensive stretch of 49 games last year, then we fall short.
However, we have been drastically better so far this year than we were in our first 49 games last year. We have also done a ton of experimenting with the pairings. We are splitting ice time a bit more evenly than we were down the stretch and in the playoffs, which is something every team does in the first half of a season when they aren't at risk of falling out of the playoffs.
Petro is playing a minute and a half less per game than he was in the playoffs. Parayko is playing almost 2 and a half minutes a night less. J-Bo is playing 2 minutes a night less. Bortz is playing a minute a night more. Dunn is playing over a minute a night more. These numbers will start skewing more in favor of the defensively sound guys as we get into more games that are truly important.
So as a whole, I agree that we haven't been as good defensively. However, I have zero expectation that a team largely sleepwalking through the first 50 games of a regular season with a 6 point cushion on their Conference is going to put the work in required to match the defensive success of a team clawing back into a playoff race and then grinding through the playoffs.
How's this for next year. (Assuming $85M cap)
Schwartz($5.4M) Schenn ($6.5M) Tarasenko ($7.5M) = $19.4M
Perron ($4M) ROR ($7.5M) Kyrou ($0.8M) = $12.3M
Blais ($1M) - Thomas ($.9M) - Sunny - ($2.8M) = $4.7M
Barby ($1.5)-DLR ($0.9) - MacMac ($0.8M) = $3.2M
Extra Forward: Bozak - OR - Steen = $5.0-$5.8
Total F: $44.6M - $45.4
Krug ($7.5M) - Petro ($9.5) = $17.0M
Mikkola ($0.9M) - Parayko ($5.5M) = $6.4M
Bouw ($2.5M) - Faulk ($6.5M) = $9.0M
Extra Defenseman: Bort - OR- Gunnarsson = $1.4M - $1.8M
Total D: $33.8M - $34.2M
Binny ($4.4M) - Backup ($1.0M)
Total G: $5.4M
Roster Total: $85.0M (high end)
Out: Dunn, Sanford, Allen, Bort/Gunnar, Steen/Bozak
In: Kyrou, Mikkola, Krug, Backup-G
I think Dunn can bring you an extra 1st rounder at the draft, and Allen, Sanford, vet-D and vet-F should all be relatively easy to move.
The following year, the $5M forward (Steen/Bozak) goes away and the cap should go up another $3-$5M, allowing for raises to Binny & Thomas.
Faulk or another contract will be lost at the Expansion Draft, giving Army even more flexibility.
Upgrading Dunn to Krug would be even better than upgrading Eddy to Faulk.
Schwartz($5.4M) Schenn ($6.5M) Tarasenko ($7.5M) = $19.4M
Perron ($4M) ROR ($7.5M) Kyrou ($0.8M) = $12.3M
Blais ($1M) - Thomas ($.9M) - Sunny - ($2.8M) = $4.7M
Barby ($1.5)-DLR ($0.9) - MacMac ($0.8M) = $3.2M
Extra Forward: Bozak - OR - Steen = $5.0-$5.8
Total F: $44.6M - $45.4
Krug ($7.5M) - Petro ($9.5) = $17.0M
Mikkola ($0.9M) - Parayko ($5.5M) = $6.4M
Bouw ($2.5M) - Faulk ($6.5M) = $9.0M
Extra Defenseman: Bort - OR- Gunnarsson = $1.4M - $1.8M
Total D: $33.8M - $34.2M
Binny ($4.4M) - Backup ($1.0M)
Total G: $5.4M
Roster Total: $85.0M (high end)
Out: Dunn, Sanford, Allen, Bort/Gunnar, Steen/Bozak
In: Kyrou, Mikkola, Krug, Backup-G
I think Dunn can bring you an extra 1st rounder at the draft, and Allen, Sanford, vet-D and vet-F should all be relatively easy to move.
The following year, the $5M forward (Steen/Bozak) goes away and the cap should go up another $3-$5M, allowing for raises to Binny & Thomas.
Faulk or another contract will be lost at the Expansion Draft, giving Army even more flexibility.
Upgrading Dunn to Krug would be even better than upgrading Eddy to Faulk.
Ugh. Just imagining that little punk Krug in a Blues uniform made me throw up in my mouth a little.
Friedge says we could be playing a game in Russia in the near future. Would make sense, as the league already has done games in Sweden.
Brian39
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- Apr 24, 2014
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I don't see any scenario where Krug is unable to work out a deal with Boston and then signs with any other team at $7.5M AAV. He has hit at least the 50 point mark the last 3 seasons and will hit 55 points this year if he plays in Boston's remaining 31 games and continues his scoring pace. He has played at a 60+ point pace in each of his last few seasons, only falling shy of the 60 point mark due to injuries. He is hitting UFA as a 29 year old, so a max term deal isn't buying as many old years as a lot of his comparables.
$7.5M AAV on a 7 year deal as a UFA is $52.5M total dollars. He could get $56M on an 8 year deal from the Bruins at $7M AAV and I can't fathom they let him walk over that number. A $7.5M AAV deal for Trouba with the Blues would be $3.5M total dollars less than Trouba got. It would be slightly less than what Jared Spurgeon got. Spurgeon is a worse player than Krug and is almost 2 years older than Krug. His extension kicks in at the same time Krug's next contract will go into effect.
Krug at $7.5M is unbelievably wishful thinking for any team other than the Bruins who can only give him 7 years. It is probably wishful thinking on an 8 year deal from the Bruins as well unless they can convince him to take a noticeable discount. I think there is a very good chance that the AAV of an 8 year deal with Petro will be less than the AAV Krug gets if he goes to UFA and has to do a 7 year deal.
Brian39
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- Apr 24, 2014
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I posted this in today's GDT, but wanted to post it here too because I spent about 15 minutes putting the data together. People have been saying that we miss the net too often, but the stats say exactly the opposite.
We are 4th best in the percentage of unblocked shot attempts that are put on goal (75.65% of our unblocked shot attempts hit the net).
We are 2nd best in the percentage of all shot attempts that are put on goal (57.98% of our shot attempts hit the net).
We are 4th in the percentage of all unblocked shots that score (7.92% of our unblocked shot attempts go in).
We are 5th in the percentage of all shot attempts that score (6.07% of our shot attempts go in).
We are 10th in the percentage of shots on goal that score (10.47% of our shots on goal go in).
We are hitting the net AND converting our attempts into goals at an elite rate. There is no evidence that we shoot the puck high and wide too often. It is a completely false narrative driven by an eye test that is literally impossible to compare to the rates other teams shoot high and wide.
Edit: Here is a google sheet with the data. All raw numbers taken from Natural Stat Trick on 1/28/20 filtered for all situations. Columns F-J created by me in excel. You can sort each column using the "data" tab within google sheets.
We are 4th best in the percentage of unblocked shot attempts that are put on goal (75.65% of our unblocked shot attempts hit the net).
We are 2nd best in the percentage of all shot attempts that are put on goal (57.98% of our shot attempts hit the net).
We are 4th in the percentage of all unblocked shots that score (7.92% of our unblocked shot attempts go in).
We are 5th in the percentage of all shot attempts that score (6.07% of our shot attempts go in).
We are 10th in the percentage of shots on goal that score (10.47% of our shots on goal go in).
We are hitting the net AND converting our attempts into goals at an elite rate. There is no evidence that we shoot the puck high and wide too often. It is a completely false narrative driven by an eye test that is literally impossible to compare to the rates other teams shoot high and wide.
Edit: Here is a google sheet with the data. All raw numbers taken from Natural Stat Trick on 1/28/20 filtered for all situations. Columns F-J created by me in excel. You can sort each column using the "data" tab within google sheets.
@Brian39 to me its more like same players hesitate too much and dont shoot when they have chance. When they wiffle and regroup för another shot which might be even bad selection vs 1St chance irritates me. It happends at powerplay most of time, but last night vs Vancouver. Pietro had great shooting lane, but he hesitate give pass and eventually Faulk shoot in much worse spot and it turns out become 2on1 and Canucks score.
Nicely done. What we see is basically confirmation bias. We notice when our guys miss more than we notice when opponent misses. So it feels like our guys miss a lot but we don’t put it in context that lots of shots get missed.
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