2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[Ranksu]

Sanford isn't excatly young 25-years old maybe not that experienced like others, but to me his bad plays just comes from lack of hockey IQ and him not being NHL level player or least ability to play with Blues best forwards ROR - Perron. Any other forward would produce better pace compare to Sanford in that line. Maybe player like Brouwer and TDL are questionmark can they be ahead of Sanford if they would play in that line.

Sanford is just uncle Chief's favorite player at this point. Any other player how major mistakes Sanford has done in Sanford shoes wouldn't touch anymore ice. Sanford just enjoys ucle Chief's trust.

 

[The Note]

So, as we head into the AS Break (2 more games for the Blues before they get there) I thought it may be interesting to look at the last 20 games for Central playoff contenders. I have included the record post-coaching change for both Dallas and Nashville, though the sample is so small for Nashville I don’t know that it means much:

Blues 47GP : 14-5-1
Dallas 46GP :12-6-2 (10-3-1 after coaching change)
Avs 46GP : 9-7-4
Jets 47GP : 9-8-3
Preds 45GP : 9-8-3 (2-2)

Basically reaffirms what most already knew, I suppose. The Blues have positioned themselves nicely and can runaway with this thing even if they don't continue earning 72% of points available as they have over this stretch. I'd say it might start getting late early for Nashville but with their games in hand and both the Avs and Jets spinning their wheels a bit they're still in striking distance.

 

[David Dennison]

I'm not sure that Sanford isn't playing hard. I can't imagine Berube would accept that. To me it seems like his mistakes occur because he's struggling to keep up with our style of play. It's a demanding system to play effectively, especially for young, less experienced players.

I just feel like fans are expecting too much. Mistakes will happen, every team has less skilled players who make mistakes. Sanford was recently benched and demoted to the fourth line so it's not like the coaches are 100% satisfied.

I guess some bias is unavoidable but I get tired of reading the same Sanford bashing posts after almost every game. When Blais comes back we'll basically have 2 spots for him, Sanford, Kyrou and DLR. The situation will work itself out.

Yeah I always say the Blues must be in good shape when the fans are bashing our 11-14th forwards, it means we got nothing else to bitch about.

I know Kyrou is younger, I know Kyrou has more upside, but I think it's difficult to honestly say that he has been better than Sanford so far this season.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Great quote.

I’ll tell you guys on this team who know how to work:
Steen
Sundqvist
Barbashev (although he had to learn how)
O’Reilly
Schwartz

That’s just the forwards that jump out. I could probably put Schenn on that list too.

Barbashev in particular really seems to have turned a corner this year. There’s not been a game this year where I walked away saying “man his motor just was not on tonight.” And that’s a very good thing because his motor is crucial to his success.

 

[BlueDream]

Barbashev in particular really seems to have turned a corner this year. There’s not been a game this year where I walked away saying “man his motor just was not on tonight.” And that’s a very good thing because his motor is crucial to his success.

If I had to pick one player that I think has blossomed the most under Chief, it’d be Barbashev. I think those 2 have a really good relationship. Barbie has really come into his own as a player and is definitely one of our most consistent guys now.

 

[MissouriMook]

Daily. ****ing. Reminder.

Just watched the game recap of Game 7 on my NHL app last night. I do that about once a week and it never gets old.

 

[Note Worthy]

Daily. ****ing. Reminder.

I still can't believe it. I don't know if I ever will.

 

[MissouriMook]

So, as we head into the AS Break (2 more games for the Blues before they get there) I thought it may be interesting to look at the last 20 games for Central playoff contenders. I have included the record post-coaching change for both Dallas and Nashville, though the sample is so small for Nashville I don’t know that it means much:

Blues 47GP : 14-5-1
Dallas 46GP :12-6-2 (10-3-1 after coaching change)
Avs 46GP : 9-7-4
Jets 47GP : 9-8-3
Preds 45GP : 9-8-3 (2-2)

Basically reaffirms what most already knew, I suppose. The Blues have positioned themselves nicely and can runaway with this thing even if they don't continue earning 72% of points available as they have over this stretch. I'd say it might start getting late early for Nashville but with their games in hand and both the Avs and Jets spinning their wheels a bit they're still in striking distance.

For some additional context, only one team had more than 107 points in the standings last season, the Bolts. If we go just 18-13-4 in our last 35 games, we will finish with 107 points despite winning only one more game than we lose.

Given what we saw last year in the playoffs, I'm not particularly concerned about playoff seeding in the West because I think we can win 2/3 in any team's building. I would like to see us finish first or second in the league, though, to try to get home ice advantage if we make it to the Finals.

 

[Brockon]

For some additional context, only one team had more than 107 points in the standings last season, the Bolts. If we go just 18-13-4 in our last 35 games, we will finish with 107 points despite winning only one more game than we lose.

Given what we saw last year in the playoffs, I'm not particularly concerned about playoff seeding in the West because I think we can win 2/3 in any team's building. I would like to see us finish first or second in the league, though, to try to get home ice advantage if we make it to the Finals.

Despite the fact that we were bad in our own barn last year in the playoffs?

I mean, we were the first team in league history to win the cup with a losing home record (6-7)...

I don't think it particularly matters whether or not we have home ice, because this team didn't thrive on it last year and presumably doesn't need it this year.

Yes, I see we're 17-4-3 at home and 13-6-4 on the road currently but I'm still not sold on the home ice advantage when burdened with the expectations of a home crowd that come with it.

 

[Brian39]

So, as we head into the AS Break (2 more games for the Blues before they get there) I thought it may be interesting to look at the last 20 games for Central playoff contenders. I have included the record post-coaching change for both Dallas and Nashville, though the sample is so small for Nashville I don’t know that it means much:

Blues 47GP : 14-5-1
Dallas 46GP :12-6-2 (10-3-1 after coaching change)
Avs 46GP : 9-7-4
Jets 47GP : 9-8-3
Preds 45GP : 9-8-3 (2-2)

Basically reaffirms what most already knew, I suppose. The Blues have positioned themselves nicely and can runaway with this thing even if they don't continue earning 72% of points available as they have over this stretch. I'd say it might start getting late early for Nashville but with their games in hand and both the Avs and Jets spinning their wheels a bit they're still in striking distance.

Honestly, none of us could have asked for a better first half of the season. Not only are we playing like an elite team, but every other team in the Central has had at least one extended rough patch. The combination of that has given us a 9 point cushion in a division that everyone thought was going to be extremely competitive. We couldn't have asked to be in a better position after 45 games.

I have said it before (when we weren't 1st in the league) and I stand by my position that I don't care about the President's trophy at all. I also don't care about getting the #1 seed in the West. Those are both possibilities, but all I care about from a standings perspective is that we win the Central. I want to avoid playing Dallas or Colorado in the 1st round and I have a hard time believing either of them drops to the Wild Card. Given the current standings, I think it is unlikely we can/will win the Central without winning the West, so one of those teams would likely have to fall to the 2nd Wild Card in order to meet us in the 1st round. I just don't see that happening barring major injuries.

Looking at the standings, we have positioned ourselves to avoid the nightmare 1st round that can happen with the NHL's idiotic playoff format. Things can change in the next 35 games and any team can beat any team in a 1st round series. But we really couldn't have put ourselves in a better situation than we are right now.

 

[AVictoryDive]

Honestly, none of us could have asked for a better first half of the season. Not only are we playing like an elite team, but every other team in the Central has had at least one extended rough patch. The combination of that has given us a 9 point cushion in a division that everyone thought was going to be extremely competitive. We couldn't have asked to be in a better position after 45 games.

I have said it before (when we weren't 1st in the league) and I stand by my position that I don't care about the President's trophy at all. I also don't care about getting the #1 seed in the West. Those are both possibilities, but all I care about from a standings perspective is that we win the Central. I want to avoid playing Dallas or Colorado in the 1st round and I have a hard time believing either of them drops to the Wild Card. Given the current standings, I think it is unlikely we can/will win the Central without winning the West, so one of those teams would likely have to fall to the 2nd Wild Card in order to meet us in the 1st round. I just don't see that happening barring major injuries.

Looking at the standings, we have positioned ourselves to avoid the nightmare 1st round that can happen with the NHL's idiotic playoff format. Things can change in the next 35 games and any team can beat any team in a 1st round series. But we really couldn't have put ourselves in a better situation than we are right now.

Sorry to be anal retentive about this but they’ve played 47 games. Either way this team has some major resolve and can definitely be considered as the best Blues team ever assembled

 

[Brian39]

Despite the fact that we were bad in our own barn last year in the playoffs?

I mean, we were the first team in league history to win the cup with a losing home record (6-7)...

I don't think it particularly matters whether or not we have home ice, because this team didn't thrive on it last year and presumably doesn't need it this year.

Yes, I see we're 17-4-3 at home and 13-6-4 on the road currently but I'm still not sold on the home ice advantage when burdened with the expectations of a home crowd that come with it.

I'm not at all concerned about last year's playoff home record. 4 of the 7 losses were 1 goal games (excluding one game that had an empty netter) and we clinched 3 playoff rounds at home. Of the 3 non-1-goal losses, one of them came against a desperate Jets team down 2-0 in a series and the other 2 came in the Cup Final. I just can't call that "bad in our own barn." Even if I did, I'll take the 24 game sample size of the current team over the 13 game sample size of last year's team.

The closest I will get to saying we were bad at home last year is that in the Cup Final the team appeared to allow the city's excitement/expectations bleed into the locker room. We got worked in the hugely hyped up "first SCF game in St Louis in decades" and we got worked when we had a chance to win the Cup at home. I think those were more the result of seeing a damn good Boston's A+ game, but I can buy in that the team did struggle with some "burden of expectations." However, IMO, any "burden of expectations" was lifted when we won the Cup. This group knows what it takes. This group can pull from last year's experience and the energy in the building will be different. There is a difference between 19,000 fans with the nervous energy of "I've been waiting all my life to see this team do it" vs "We did it last year, but now let's do it in our building."

I just don't see this team being impacted by any burden of expectations in the playoffs and we have been damn good at home this year. I'm not concerned about having to go on the road either. My focus is on matchups and I honestly couldn't care less about what building we are in.

 

[Brian39]

Sorry to be anal retentive about this but they’ve played 47 games. Either way this team has some major resolve and can definitely be considered as the best Blues team ever assembled

Sorry, I wasn't clear. The entire league is now at the 45 game mark. The NHL season has crossed the 45 game threshold, which is what I was attempting to allude to. My language wasn't clear.

 

[MissouriMook]

Despite the fact that we were bad in our own barn last year in the playoffs?

I mean, we were the first team in league history to win the cup with a losing home record (6-7)...

I don't think it particularly matters whether or not we have home ice, because this team didn't thrive on it last year and presumably doesn't need it this year.

Yes, I see we're 17-4-3 at home and 13-6-4 on the road currently but I'm still not sold on the home ice advantage when burdened with the expectations of a home crowd that come with it.

I see this as just one more thing that Berube has gotten this team past mentally. He's spoken about it as recently as Tuesday night in his post-game presser that the team seemingly used to feel like they had to put on a show for the home crowd. He's been pushing the realization on them that the home crowd enjoys it most when they win, and that they win when they get to THEIR game instead of "putting on a show".

Maybe I'm setting myself up to being disappointed, but I feel like this team is going to be just as tough at home in the playoffs this season as they have been in the regular season so far.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Strickland just tweeted that the team told Kyrou to move out of the hotel and find a place to live.

 

[David Dennison]

Strickland just tweeted that the team told Kyrou to move out of the hotel and find a place to live.

Curious timing considering he was the cause of two goals getting called back and then being healthy scratched.

Reading the tea leaves, is Vlad done for the year?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Curious timing considering he was the cause of two goals getting called back and then being healthy scratched.

Reading the tea leaves, is Vlad done for the year?

Not any different than what we already knew about Vlad. But Brouwer better get some warm weather clothes for San Antonio.

I don’t understand why it’s so difficult to see Kyrou is in a personalized curriculum for developing his NHL game. He isn’t an every day player yet. He isn’t ready to be a key playoff contributor, but he has proven that there is nothing left to accomplish in the AHL. The ups and downs of his scratches and starts are probably not nearly as closely tied to a single play here or there as some on the forum believe.

Good for him. When Blais returns (and the defense is not giving a spare roster spot) Brouwer will be on waivers. But I think they’ve probably already addressed that with him, that he’ll be called up for the playoff roster if he keeps himself ready to play in the AHL. He did sign a 2-way deal.

If Blais and Tarasenko were both back, it becomes a tricky situation with De La Rose. But maybe we won’t see Vlad in time for that to ever happen.

 

[Meatball]

Rest easy, Vova.

Healthy lines:

Schwartz-Schenn-Kyrou
Blais-O'Reilly-Perron
Steen-Thomas-Bozak
Mac-Sunny-Barby

Faulk-Petro (even though I prefer 72 on his natural side)
Jbo-Parayko
Dunn-Bortuzzo

Binny
Allen

 

[execwrite1]

Tarasenko needs to be 100% healthy before returning. If there are any doubts he should just pass until next season.

The Blues won't win the Cup this year without Tarasenko in the playoffs.

 

[Brian39]

Curious timing considering he was the cause of two goals getting called back and then being healthy scratched.

Reading the tea leaves, is Vlad done for the year?

This has nothing to do with Tarasenko's status. Tarasenko's reevaluation date has always been well after the expanded roster date. Kyrou is here to stay because the team thinks he is good enough to be here and will benefit more from bouncing in and out of the lineup (and practicing with the NHL team) than he would benefit from playing big minutes in the AHL.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Strickland just tweeted that the team told Kyrou to move out of the hotel and find a place to live.

Great, great news. I'm fine with him playing about 2/3 or 3/4 of the rest of the games, Hopefully will keep him fresh and help him learn. Stick him with Perron and RoR or Schwartz and Schenn and I think he's going to get some great knowledge in the game.

Schwartz-Schenn-Kyrou/Sunny/Blais
Perron-RoR-Kyrou/Sunny/Blais

 

[Mike Liut]

Tarasenko needs to be 100% healthy before returning. If there are any doubts he should just pass until next season.

The Blues won't win the Cup this year without Tarasenko in the playoffs.

I’m not so sure about that. This team is better defensively without Tarasenko. Obviously, we lost some scoring from last years team with Tarasenko, but we also have Faulk and this years version of Thomas. I think this team as it sits right now is better than last years team with Tarasenko. Now, i’m definitely not saying we are better off without Tarasenko, because we aren’t. Thats not my point. My point is this years team is better overall than last years as it sits right now.

 

[MissouriMook]

Tarasenko has a daily cap hit of $40,323 according to CapFriendly. In order for him to play in the last two regular season games (vs. Boston and @Colorado) the Blues will need to have $120,969 in unused cap space on April 1 at midnight from before he was placed on LTIR to exceed the $81.5M cap by his full $7.5M.

Looking at it another way, we were only accruing (by my unofficial calculations) $851.26 per day prior to his injury, but I don't remember exactly when we placed him on LTIR and added a player to the roster. If we had the opening day lineup for 28 days before placing him on LTIR and adding a player to the roster, we would have banked $23,835 in cap space to use later in the year. That means that in order to activate him in time to play in the last two games, we could only exceed the cap by a little over $1.4M when he is activated and carry that for three days. If we only activate him for the last day of the season to play in the finale at Colorado, we could exceed the cap by roughly $4.2M for that one day.

What does this all mean?

It means I think if Tarasenko returns before the playoffs it will probably only be for one game. I don't think we'll have room for more unless someone else ends up on LTIR between now and then.

 

[Dbrownss]

Anyone else find it somewhat concerning Vladi was whipping pucks at TVs for a NHL commercial?

 

[Majorityof1]

Anyone else find it somewhat concerning Vladi was whipping pucks at TVs for a NHL commercial?

I wondered about it but just figured it was filmed before he was injured.