Speculation: 2019-2020 Sharks Roster Discussion

[STL Shark]

A couple of things I disagree with in this post.

1) The value you assigned the assets in the deal. Meier is a decent top line forward that put up 65 points in a career year. Marner put up those point totals for two years before exploding for 95 points this year, so he is a superstar top line forward. Meier had better possession #s this year but Marner had even better possession #s last year while putting up the same # of points (although Marner did have easier deployment that year). So while Meier is a better possession player, Marner blows him out of the water production-wise. Calling Merkley a top prospect is also generous unless you mean purely San Jose's top prospect, which doesn't mean much...he's high risk, reward (ie good chance of being great 2nd pairing puck mover and PPQB or a bust with both work ethic and character concerns, so we'll see how that plays out). And Vlasic is in no way, shape, or form a bonafide top-pairing D. He's 32 years old, on a pretty much guaranteed albatross contract in a few years, somewhat injury-prone, and coming off 2-3 years of continuous decline until one good playoff run playing alongside Burns, who was amazing. Those shifts where Vlasic was reunited with Braun and struggled really badly indicated that Burns played a huge role in that pairing succeeding. Vlasic was good too, but I don't think that playoff performance erases his age, contract, constant decline the past 3 years, and injury history.

2) Not sure where this idea that Toronto can't sign Marner comes from. They will pay dearly to get Marleau and Zaitsev (lucky that he requested out) off the books, but they can do it, and then they should have no problem signing Marner.



The Meier value to the Sharks argument I understand, but given their performance the past 3 years, I would take Marner any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Your argument about Toronto's needs in the trade is totally valid, and I wasn't the one suggesting that trade. The post I quoted proposed that deal with a + and I said that given the first 2 assets listed (Vlasic + Merkley), the + would have to be Meier. However, I totally agree with your point that there is no reason for Toronto to make that deal given the $$$ coming back with Vlasic's contract.

Merkley was literally a first round pick in last year's draft and not a reach at that spot either (was slotted as a first rounder in every mock draft). If 1st rounders are not top prospects, I don't know who those guys are then... All prospects come with a risk profile. That is why they are prospects and not NHLers.

Meier and Marner are totally different players with totally different skill sets so just using point comparisons is kind of silly. Meier is a physical power forward while Marner is a speedy and smaller playmaking type that also played with one of the best centers in all of hockey. Meier affects the game physically and in other ways than just scoring (which he does plenty of). Not saying Meier is better (he's not), but he brings a lot of other things to the table besides point totals whereas that is all Marner's game centers around. The gap is not nearly as big as you are making it out to be when adding in that Meier will come for about half the cap hit as Marner (there is value in that alone).

Vlasic is still a top pairing D-Man in this league. Is he a #1? No, he never has been. Is he a solid stay at home and defensively elite #2, yes he is. He is playing 1st pairing minutes on just about every single team in the NHL for the next few seasons. If anything, the Burns playoff run was more indicative of just how terrible Justin Braun is at this point in his career than it is a huge indictment on Vlasic. Braun made literally every player he played with worse this year (the WOWY numbers are astonishingly bad).

There is just no way that you can defend that as fair value to give up for Marner when you look at the history of trade values all throughout the NHL. Literally no single player has gone for anything like that package in 25 years and no GM in their right mind would decimate the entire team and organization for that.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Meier is untradable unless it’s in a package for MacKinnon or McDavid neither of which are happening.

Marner is a better player but if Meier gets done at a decent price for term he’s more valuable from a production to cap space ratio standpoint.

I think Meier’s ceiling is 40G 50A plus his physical nasty play. Extremely difficult to find guys with Meier’s skill level who play as heavy as he does.

 

[Eklund72]

I would definitely offer Labanc+Braun+prospect for Trouba if EK walks.

Vlasic-Trouba
Simek-Burns
Dillon-Heed

 

[SjMilhouse]

Donskoi is long gone with or without bringing back EK65. Given the stated goal of getting bigger and more physical, Donskoi is the exact opposite of the players that I would expect DW to bring back. He would also basically preclude any upgrades to the top 9 forward group given most assume Pavelski is coming back with Labanc.

Im so scared if we really are going this direction. Bigger/more physical usually means slow and the last thing this team needs is less speed. Vegas/Colorado type teams are going to smoke us. I thought Kane was our size answer?

 

[one2gamble]

Im so scared if we really are going this direction. Bigger/more physical usually means slow and the last thing this team needs is less speed. Vegas/Colorado type teams are going to smoke us. I thought Kane was our size answer?

Nobody said that was a stated goal.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Nobody said that was a stated goal.

Fair, but the PDB had some interesting quotes about size/physical play at the end of the season which is cause for alarm given Wilsons history of trying to copy other teams

 

[JackSkellington]

Fair, but the PDB had some interesting quotes about size/physical play at the end of the season which is cause for alarm given Wilsons history of trying to copy other teams

That’s my biggest fear, healthy and with a better pp I thought we were better than St. Louis anyways. It’s the Vegas and Avs of the world that bother me, going big trying to kill every skater while trying to catch up with them is not the way to go in todays NHL

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Dunno. Dont want to think bout that, DW will keep signing the bargain talent in the meantime. One thing I didn't like bout Marleau (he didn't stand up for teammtes) and he was stubborn about playing LW. He's a better Center. But he aint our problem anymore.

But that's Haley's job remember? Marleau wasn't stubborn about playing LW. That's simply where the coaches put him. They made those choices. Not him.

 

[sharski]

Fair, but the PDB had some interesting quotes about size/physical play at the end of the season which is cause for alarm given Wilsons history of trying to copy other teams

Sharks will almost definitely goon it up next year and lead the league in penalty minutes

 

[OrrNumber4]

DeBoer has plenty of small players on his team. He's praised small/skilled guys all the time. When he talks about playing big, he doesn't mean (just) size and strength. He means getting inside on the opposition, fighting for pucks, winning board battles, etc.

Donskoi really isn't small, but he is a perimeter player.

 

[STL Shark]

Im so scared if we really are going this direction. Bigger/more physical usually means slow and the last thing this team needs is less speed. Vegas/Colorado type teams are going to smoke us. I thought Kane was our size answer?

An injured Kane doesn’t make up for the entire right side of our lineup being small and mostly soft. The bottom 6 needs an influx of size and physicality. That doesn’t mean they need slow players, but guys like Melker who are not fast and are also not physical or skilled need to be gone on the 4th line.

Give me Brandon Tanev and Alex Chiasson on the 4th line with Goodrow and I’ll be content. That’s a big 4th line that hits and skates that also has some scoring punch and gives you 3 PKers to rest the top guys. Add those guys and a top 6 RW that plays a physical and fast north and south game (Kevin Hayes) and I’m very content with the forward group. More annoyed that our 4th line is ultra soft than anything in terms of physical play. The other lines just need guys that can play inside the dots against teams that pack the middle of the ice and clog up shooting lanes.

 

[exchequer]

Sharks will almost definitely goon it up next year and lead the league in penalty minutes

That's already happened. Guess which player led the league in penalties and PIMs.

 

[DG93]

Merkley was literally a first round pick in last year's draft and not a reach at that spot either (was slotted as a first rounder in every mock draft). If 1st rounders are not top prospects, I don't know who those guys are then... All prospects come with a risk profile. That is why they are prospects and not NHLers.

Meier and Marner are totally different players with totally different skill sets so just using point comparisons is kind of silly. Meier is a physical power forward while Marner is a speedy and smaller playmaking type that also played with one of the best centers in all of hockey. Meier affects the game physically and in other ways than just scoring (which he does plenty of). Not saying Meier is better (he's not), but he brings a lot of other things to the table besides point totals whereas that is all Marner's game centers around. The gap is not nearly as big as you are making it out to be when adding in that Meier will come for about half the cap hit as Marner (there is value in that alone).

Vlasic is still a top pairing D-Man in this league. Is he a #1? No, he never has been. Is he a solid stay at home and defensively elite #2, yes he is. He is playing 1st pairing minutes on just about every single team in the NHL for the next few seasons. If anything, the Burns playoff run was more indicative of just how terrible Justin Braun is at this point in his career than it is a huge indictment on Vlasic. Braun made literally every player he played with worse this year (the WOWY numbers are astonishingly bad).

There is just no way that you can defend that as fair value to give up for Marner when you look at the history of trade values all throughout the NHL. Literally no single player has gone for anything like that package in 25 years and no GM in their right mind would decimate the entire team and organization for that.

Draft pedigree doesn't make you a top prospect...that's the trap that teams fall into like San Jose with Mueller when he was clearly nowhere near a top prospect. For now, Merkley is a high risk, high reward prospect, but he's nowhere near a "top" prospect. And we are so far apart in our respective assessments of Marner and Meier (physicality making up for a 30pt difference in production) and Vlasic (somehow he is still a top pairing defenseman despite 3 years of steadily declining play being outweighed by 2.5 good series alongside a dominant Burns) that I don't feel like it's productive to keep discussing this. Agree to disagree.

 

[exchequer]

Pick your hypothetical poison: assuming both had equal cap hits - Nyquist or Marleau?

 

[DG93]

Pick your hypothetical poison: assuming both had equal cap hits - Nyquist or Marleau?

Nyquist easily, Marleau is nothing more than a bottom-6 winger at this point.

 

[aircobra]

Pick your hypothetical poison: assuming both had equal cap hits - Nyquist or Marleau?

Nyquist but not sure what term I'd be happy with (assuming the 6m cap hit).

 

[NWSharkie]

Sharks will almost definitely goon it up next year and lead the league in penalty minutes

Hard pass. God, if we end up spending money on a goon this offseason...

 

[NWSharkie]

DeBoer has plenty of small players on his team. He's praised small/skilled guys all the time. When he talks about playing big, he doesn't mean (just) size and strength. He means getting inside on the opposition, fighting for pucks, winning board battles, etc.

Donskoi really isn't small, but he is a perimeter player.

Yeah, but isn't that the "mix" that Wilson was talking about? Donskoi's a perimeter guy, but he's been willing to go into the corners and win puck battles. With players like him on a line with guys like Kane and Hertl who are totally fearless in the slot, you can open up the offense a lot. I think a lot more of the problems on the outside this season had to do with systems and having wingers constantly bailing to cover for the D.

 

[Groo]

An injured Kane doesn’t make up for the entire right side of our lineup being small and mostly soft. The bottom 6 needs an influx of size and physicality. That doesn’t mean they need slow players, but guys like Melker who are not fast and are also not physical or skilled need to be gone on the 4th line.

Give me Brandon Tanev and Alex Chiasson on the 4th line with Goodrow and I’ll be content. That’s a big 4th line that hits and skates that also has some scoring punch and gives you 3 PKers to rest the top guys. Add those guys and a top 6 RW that plays a physical and fast north and south game (Kevin Hayes) and I’m very content with the forward group. More annoyed that our 4th line is ultra soft than anything in terms of physical play. The other lines just need guys that can play inside the dots against teams that pack the middle of the ice and clog up shooting lanes.

Careful. Grit is a dirty word around here.
Nice post

 

[NWSharkie]

An injured Kane doesn’t make up for the entire right side of our lineup being small and mostly soft. The bottom 6 needs an influx of size and physicality. That doesn’t mean they need slow players, but guys like Melker who are not fast and are also not physical or skilled need to be gone on the 4th line.

Give me Brandon Tanev and Alex Chiasson on the 4th line with Goodrow and I’ll be content. That’s a big 4th line that hits and skates that also has some scoring punch and gives you 3 PKers to rest the top guys. Add those guys and a top 6 RW that plays a physical and fast north and south game (Kevin Hayes) and I’m very content with the forward group. More annoyed that our 4th line is ultra soft than anything in terms of physical play. The other lines just need guys that can play inside the dots against teams that pack the middle of the ice and clog up shooting lanes.

Anybody got odds on Hayes signing in Philly? I'd have no problem with more "grit" on the team, as long as they were also guys who could skate, defend, and at least threaten to score. It's the Shelley/Burish/Brown/Haley type of signings that have given us all PTSD at this point. No more bottom-six liability signings!

 

[LA Shark]

Pick your hypothetical poison: assuming both had equal cap hits - Nyquist or Marleau?

Nyquist by a country mile. Not even a discussion imo.

 

[DG93]

Anybody got odds on Hayes signing in Philly? I'd have no problem with more "grit" on the team, as long as they were also guys who could skate, defend, and at least threaten to score. It's the Shelley/Burish/Brown/Haley type of signings that have given us all PTSD at this point. No more bottom-six liability signings!

Or grinders like Melker and even guys like Goodrow who can't contribute anything offensively and just cycle the other team to death with the puck dying on their sticks.

 

[NWSharkie]

Or grinders like Melker and even guys like Goodrow who can't contribute anything offensively and just cycle the other team to death with the puck dying on their sticks.

Even then, a guy like Fehr made a huge difference just by being able to do things like get open for a pass, find an open teammate, or shoot. One of my big complaints about the offensive system all year was that in transition, we'd end up with one guy carrying the puck into the offensive zone, just to find himself alone and outnumbered with the goalie 6 feet in front of his crease cutting off any possible shot. Happened to Donskoi and Kane enough that it became a drinking game in my house (low bar, I know). Just one more guy with the wheels to get into the high slot behind a streaking winger, and we'd have at least 15-20 more goals on the season.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Pick your hypothetical poison: assuming both had equal cap hits - Nyquist or Marleau?

Marleau just for the expiring term. I like Nyquist but I don't think he's a long term fit for this team.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Careful. Grit is a dirty word around here.
Nice post

Grit's fine, but it's far from the only thing you need to have to be an effective hockey player.