2019/20 Roster Thread XXX - AKA the Ghost Thread

[rinaldo]

girgenson and jankowski are 2 good options as 4th line center.

clearly they don't see frost as option at this point.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I agree mostly, and the bolded is what sticks out the most. We could improve this team without making trades. Could we improve it further by making some? Absolutely, but to your point, the issue becomes cost. I'm hesitant to believe we'll find a trade out there where the cost to acquire to impactfulness of upgrade (over what we could have had for free), is positive. Generally speaking, deadline prices are almost always overpays by nature due to basic economics. To paint a more specific picture - whats the perceived benefit of Pageau over Frost in that role, and what is that benefit worth in terms of the picks and prospects required to attain him. I see very few instances (and admittedly, im just talking one player here), where that nets out as a positive. I am, however, open to the scenario, at least.

Yeah, deadline trades are just not that likely to work out. Specifically those involving a 1st for rentals have a history of being beyond horrendous.

Then you have the structure of these deals where you're often punished if the trade does end up being a positive for team and player by being forced to surrender more/better picks if you re-sign the player. That never fails to drive me nuts. Why structure a trade that way??

 

[bobbythebrain]

I agree mostly, and the bolded is what sticks out the most. We could improve this team without making trades. Could we improve it further by making some? Absolutely, but to your point, the issue becomes cost. I'm hesitant to believe we'll find a trade out there where the cost to acquire to impactfulness of upgrade (over what we could have had for free), is positive. Generally speaking, deadline prices are almost always overpays by nature due to basic economics. To paint a more specific picture - whats the perceived benefit of Pageau over Frost in that role, and what is that benefit worth in terms of the picks and prospects required to attain him. I see very few instances (and admittedly, im just talking one player here), where that nets out as a positive. I am, however, open to the scenario, at least.

There's a massive difference between Frost and Pageau atm...especially defensively

Pageau also opens up more options for the team

Yes, the question is cost, of course. But it could also mean round 1 vs a final appearance

That reward is both economically worth it, as it is developmentally

 

[GapToothedWonder]

The Edmonton Oilers, from 2010/11 through 2018/19, went under .500 & missed the playoffs in 8/9 seasons.

That’s despite fast-tracking tons of extremely young, highly touted prospects. Not sure what happened, since this board tends to assert that more innate skill & talent always = the “better” player; always = a “better” team; & always equals an increased chance to win.

We’ll just pretend the Oilers didn’t happen over a huge sample size & learn nothing from it. Or, most likely, deflect the blame onto the multiple different coaches, because that’s what fans do.

BTW, is Zherdev still around? Now that guy was incredibly skilled & talented, & a high pick. Surely he could increase the Flyers chances to win by slotting ahead of the less-talented Pitlick.

Yup, that's what people are asking for. To act like the Oilers. Take all of our decent prospect and put them into high impact roles, after signing their ELCs at 18 with no veteran support around.

Totally comparable situations. Absolutely no good veteran support around this team either. Total dumpster fire of a roster at every other position and we are just going to throw Frost into that.

Yup totally comparable. Totally comparable how the Flyers and Oilers have drafted too. Look at all those high end defensive prospect the Oilers took to solidify their back line first. Yup the exact same.

And look at all the careers they have ruined by playing guys to early, Ebrele, Hall, Dria, McDavid, RNH, Nurse. All clearly would have been hall of famers if they just for some AHL time. Totally compares to us ruining guys like TK, Ivan, etc.

It's almost like they're is way more to building a team that the Oilers couldn't get right. But at the same time fast tracking those guys didn't ruin them. Its almost like the NHL over the last 10 years has a massive sample size of young highly touted prospects joining non dumpster fires and then having a very positive impact on their teams.

But yeah people are saying be the Oilers. Create an absolute shit show dumpster fire of a team and then blame the rookies when they cant single handedly drag the team out of the long term hell hole they were thrust into.

TLDR acting as if the last 15 years of the Oilers comes down to any single thing is f***ing dumb and make Ghostbeer look like a dumbass for acting like that was a simple situation.

/endrant

 

[Starat327]

There's a massive difference between Frost and Pageau atm...especially defensively

Pageau also opens up more options for the team

Yes, the question is cost, of course. But it could also mean round 1 vs a final appearance

That reward is both economically worth it, as it is developmentally

There is also a massive difference between Pageau playing this year and every other year in his career.

The debate for economically worth it could be had, i suppose (though i certainly would not entertain it, given the rumored 1st+ prospect asking price), but developmentally that argument cant even be made. Frost has little left to learn by playing pond hockey against lesser skilled players. If the Phantoms were set up to play structured hockey where kids were actually learning how to play at the NHL level, you'd have an argument. But there's probably a good reason that very few of our prospects are able to make the jump from AHL to NHL, and we have a better success rate on going right from juniors to the NHL (allowing, of course, for the idea that those players had a naturally better pedigree to start with).

 

[dragonoffrost]

I agree mostly, and the bolded is what sticks out the most. We could improve this team without making trades. Could we improve it further by making some? Absolutely, but to your point, the issue becomes cost. I'm hesitant to believe we'll find a trade out there where the cost to acquire to impactfulness of upgrade (over what we could have had for free), is positive. Generally speaking, deadline prices are almost always overpays by nature due to basic economics. To paint a more specific picture - whats the perceived benefit of Pageau over Frost in that role, and what is that benefit worth in terms of the picks and prospects required to attain him. I see very few instances (and admittedly, im just talking one player here), where that nets out as a positive. I am, however, open to the scenario, at least.

Per Cap Friendly they currently look to be targeted for about 1,332,368 in space at the deadline add to that any they gain from demotion of the player being replaced. So yes it's tight but it's not totally unfathomable. They seem to like the top 9 they got and are looking at line 4 for the upgrading. I don't think that's where Frost fits in their viewpoint. They probably have decided unless injuries force it he's finishing in Lehigh and will replace Pitlick or NAK on the roster next season. Right or wrong I'm not going to argue as I can see both sides.

The piece that muddies everything is they still think Patrick "can" return. If he does that has huge cap implications and will also impact where Frost/NAK would be... I'd rather see Frost gettting 20ish minutes in Lehigh than 8 in the NHL. How many times have we heard of a player being rushed into the NHL and failing? Now how many time has the time in the AHL made someone fail in the NHL?

Another thing no one mentions what about trading a player like Raffl/Laughton and then filling that spot with Frost and also gettting a 4c? Everyone in the Frost belongs up camp could be too focused on one piece of the puzzle....

 

[Starat327]

Yeah, deadline trades are just not that likely to work out. Specifically those involving a 1st for rentals have a history of being beyond horrendous.

Then you have the structure of these deals where you're often punished if the trade does end up being a positive for team and player by being forced to surrender more/better picks if you re-sign the player. That never fails to drive me nuts. Why structure a trade that way??

Yup. If you think youre a cup contender and a player like Pageau is that missing piece? I can understand the gamble. But being a bubble team, who has quite a few missing pieces? You're going to have a hard time selling anyone on the cost of Pageau being worth it. I know everyone wants a playoff series win, but you'll have to forgive me for looking past one series and more to the future (though, apparently, I only care about the players i like and not the team?).

As for the deadline prices, don't get me started. You cant put a price on winning the cup, but look at all the deals the obvious pretenders have made in the past in an effort to elevate their status, and how spectacularly those trades backfired (how timely, given my reference to Erat for Forsberg last night).

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Pageau is a career 35 point player who have never heard talked about as being a defensive stud.

He is having a career year during a contract year while playing on a terrible team. He is getting inflated minutes in a role that allows him to sacrifice defense for offence especially since the team isn't winning anyways. All of which will inflate his stats (he is still only on a 55 point pace and has a shooting % that will be impossible to maintain)

Considering the overpayment he is likely to receive this summer and the fact that either Frost or Patrick will likely eclipse him in impact over the next few years, do we really want to send high end draft asset to OTT for him as a rental? Do we really want to sign a player like him long term?

 

[Starat327]

Per Cap Friendly they currently look to be targeted for about 1,332,368 in space at the deadline add to that any they gain from demotion of the player being replaced. So yes it's tight but it's not totally unfathomable. They seem to like the top 9 they got and are looking at line 4 for the upgrading. I don't think that's where Frost fits in their viewpoint. They probably have decided unless injuries force it he's finishing in Lehigh and will replace Pitlick or NAK on the roster next season. Right or wrong I'm not going to argue as I can see both sides.

The piece that muddies everything is they still think Patrick "can" return. If he does that has huge cap implications and will also impact where Frost/NAK would be... I'd rather see Frost gettting 20ish minutes in Lehigh than 8 in the NHL. How many times have we heard of a player being rushed into the NHL and failing? Now how many time has the time in the AHL made someone fail in the NHL?

Another thing no one mentions what about trading a player like Raffl/Laughton and then filling that spot with Frost and also gettting a 4c? Everyone in the Frost belongs up camp could be too focused on one piece of the puzzle....

This organization has the exact opposite track record of what youd expect. Most of our players who spend prolonged periods of time in the AHL end up failing, while the players who make the jump immediately tend to do very well. It isnt exact, mind you. But players like NAK, for example, should be much better prepared to play at the NHL level after their years of being in the AHL. Most teams around the league are set up to churn rosters from their AHL to the NHL, and we've had very few players who can do that. I'm sure there isn't one singular reason for it (again, fully acknowledging that most players that make the jump immediately are higher profile players with better pedigree), but one can't help but think that part of that rationale is because the Phantoms arent set up as a developmental team.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Per Cap Friendly they currently look to be targeted for about 1,332,368 in space at the deadline add to that any they gain from demotion of the player being replaced. So yes it's tight but it's not totally unfathomable. They seem to like the top 9 they got and are looking at line 4 for the upgrading. I don't think that's where Frost fits in their viewpoint. They probably have decided unless injuries force it he's finishing in Lehigh and will replace Pitlick or NAK on the roster next season. Right or wrong I'm not going to argue as I can see both sides.

The piece that muddies everything is they still think Patrick "can" return. If he does that has huge cap implications and will also impact where Frost/NAK would be... I'd rather see Frost gettting 20ish minutes in Lehigh than 8 in the NHL. How many times have we heard of a player being rushed into the NHL and failing? Now how many time has the time in the AHL made someone fail in the NHL?

Another thing no one mentions what about trading a player like Raffl/Laughton and then filling that spot with Frost and also gettting a 4c? Everyone in the Frost belongs up camp could be too focused on one piece of the puzzle....

Neither you or I or anybody else can answer that question with certainty. There have been tons of players that have stayed in the AHL and never made it, there have been tons fast tracked to the NHL that have been very successful. The AHL isn't automatically good or bad for a player, there is much more nuance to it then that.

 

[TB87]

*Trading for pending UFA’s is a dumb gamble for a playoff bubble team (or any team for that matter)*

The ROI is likely to be low. At least some term’s gotta be left to make a deal. Deadline deals in general are inherently risky because its so late in the season and the player has to adjust to a new system quickly in order to bring legitimate value to their new team. Many, many struggle to adapt quickly to their new team’s.

*Not true in all cases obviously but it is true in a vast majority of cases*

 

[dragonoffrost]

Pageau is a career 35 point player who have never heard talked about as being a defensive stud.

He is having a career year during a contract year while playing on a terrible team. He is getting inflated minutes in a role that allows him to sacrifice defense for offence especially since the team isn't winning anyways. All of which will inflate his stats (he is still only on a 55 point pace and has a shooting % that will be impossible to maintain)

Considering the overpayment he is likely to receive this summer and the fact that either Frost or Patrick will likely eclipse him in impact over the next few years, do we really want to send high end draft asset to OTT for him as a rental? Do we really want to sign a player like him long term?

This has all been brought up when the discussions happen on NHL Network. But they do mention he will be an ideal 3/4C on the team he ends up on as he does play "the level" defense for that role. Yes someone will overpay in the trade. But probably not in the contract as, as you point out, he hasn't produced like this until this year when he went into a role that isn't where most teams will slot him.

 

[flyersfan187]

Scott wants at least a 4C. Has met Fletch, scouts and stats guys and like their options. Hopeful on Patrick as a side note.

Dave Scott: Flyers are a playoff team, and eyeing a move to improve chances

I do like how they want to add a 4c on this team because it is a clear weak spot but that they don't feel the need to add one to get into the playoffs. That tells me right there that they don't plan on overpaying for one in a trade.

They should keep Frost as an option in the playoffs as a 4c, but only in the playoffs to be on the 4th line. Couts/Hayes/Giroux/Frost down the middle come playoff time would be a nice advantage to have over other teams.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Now how many time has the time in the AHL made someone fail in the NHL? Now how many time has the time in the AHL made someone fail in the NHL?

There are those that stagnate developmentally and we'll never know why. I won't tell you I know how many there are in this specific case, as it's impossible to actually determine the number of the former. But just by the sheer number of players involved now, it has to happen sometimes. It's the old aphorism of absence of evidence not being evidence of absence. None of us have any idea of the ratio.

The real problem with the slow bake is one that gets maginified with potential stars. Typical Skater aging curves skew younger than traditional NHL developmental models. This is not a huge problem for the NAKs of the world, but when you start getting into Frosts, the angle of examination has to change. You have a cost-controlled premium asset. Your goal as an org should be to extract as much juice from that asset as possible. The faster you get these guys up, the faster you can get them signed to long-term second contracts when they do hit and end up with massively better bets and values in the future. In the interim you're still getting what are likely to be prime years at massive discounts.

The jump to the NHL is huge. It doesn't go away if Frost plays 30 more AHL Games. It will take time and be bumpy. That's ok.

 

[dragonoffrost]

Neither you or I or anybody else can answer that question with certainty. There have been tons of players that have stayed in the AHL and never made it, there have been tons fast tracked to the NHL that have been very successful. The AHL isn't automatically good or bad for a player, there is much more nuance to it then that.

I'm not leaving him there. It's just a 1 year stay which is fine for an adjustment period to the lifestyle change and to fine tune parts of the game that even Gordon shouldn't f*** up. Plus at his level of development he's probably still also working with the development team along with the AHL coaches and the skills coach.

Remember the quotes from Hart last year about the differences in WHL/AHL/NHL life...

 

[GapToothedWonder]

This organization has the exact opposite track record of what youd expect. Most of our players who spend prolonged periods of time in the AHL end up failing, while the players who make the jump immediately tend to do very well. It isnt exact, mind you. But players like NAK, for example, should be much better prepared to play at the NHL level after their years of being in the AHL. Most teams around the league are set up to churn rosters from their AHL to the NHL, and we've had very few players who can do that. I'm sure there isn't one singular reason for it (again, fully acknowledging that most players that make the jump immediately are higher profile players with better pedigree), but one can't help but think that part of that rationale is because the Phantoms arent set up as a developmental team.

So this. The Phantoms are set up to win and be a professional team and not purely a development squad. They put winning ahead of development.

If the AHL was the magic formula people describe it as we would have a much stronger bottom 6 right now. There has been enough talent going into the AHL that we should have seen bottom 6 returns by now, if the AHL was as effective as so many seem to think.

 

[Tripod]

Trading a 1st for Pageau as a rental would be beyond dumb. You could be trading a 1st....and miss the playoffs.

It's as if some people don't see we are in 10th in our conference. And some of those same people are "happy" meeting expectation while ripping people who want Frost up who can help us EXCEED expectations.

Scott talking is dumb. Why announce to the world that we want a #4C and possibly more? It does no good to let everyone know that. Awful negotiation tactic.

They seem dead set on keeping Frost in the AHL for the season, icing Laughton on the 3rd line, and adding someone to Raffl and Pitlick. I am prepared for an overpay.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

This has all been brought up when the discussions happen on NHL Network. But they do mention he will be an ideal 3/4C on the team he ends up on as he does play "the level" defense for that role. Yes someone will overpay in the trade. But probably not in the contract as, as you point out, he hasn't produced like this until this year when he went into a role that isn't where most teams will slot him.

So Pageau is truly a 35 point player with average defence.

What do you think Frost is?

Because you stated earlier that the difference between the two would be worth the price of the trade. Which is rumored to be a 1st+prospect.

Plus do you really think he wont get overplayed as a UFA coming of a career year? That literally happens every year with some player in the NHL. GMs can't help themselves, it's literally why a salary cap had go be put in place.

 

[Starat327]

There are those that stagnate developmentally and we'll never know why. I won't tell you I know how many there are in this specific case, as it's impossible to actually determine the number of the former. But just by the sheer number of players involved now, it has to happen sometimes. It's the old aphorism of absence of evidence not being evidence of absence. None of us have any idea of the ratio.

The real problem with the slow bake is one that gets maginified with potential stars. Typical Skater aging curves skew younger than traditional NHL developmental models. This is not a huge problem for the NAKs of the world, but when you start getting into Frosts, the angle of examination has to change. You have a cost-controlled premium asset. Your goal as an org should be to extract as much juice from that asset as possible. The faster you get these guys up, the faster you can get them signed to long-term second contracts when they do hit and end up with massively better bets and values in the future. In the interim you're still getting what are likely to be prime years at massive discounts.

The jump to the NHL is huge. It doesn't go away if Frost plays 30 more AHL Games. It will take time and be bumpy. That's ok.

I'm always baffled by the case of "he needs development". Take a look at a comparable - Robert Thomas of the Blues. guy played 70 games for them last season, mostly in a 3rd line W or 4th line C role, pots 30 points, and while not a 'key' to the Blues success, there were plays i remember him making that were important plays throughout the game. He's currently 20, and was taken 7 spots before Morgan Frost. He didnt have to be a key contributor on the NHL team to be a contributor to a stanley cup winning team.

None of us can speak to whether he (or the blues) would have been better off with him on the team vs of of it and spending last year in the AHL. But I'd like to think its not outlandish to think that he learned a lot more playing smaller minutes against real competition than he would have playing in the AHL.

 

[Tripod]

*Trading for pending UFA’s is a dumb gamble for a playoff bubble team (or any team for that matter)*

The ROI is likely to be low. At least some term’s gotta be left to make a deal. Deadline deals in general are inherently risky because its so late in the season and the player has to adjust to a new system quickly in order to bring legitimate value to their new team. Many, many struggle to adapt quickly to their new team’s.

*Not true in all cases obviously but it is true in a vast majority of cases*

Huh....maybe that's why it's also a good idea to run a AHL team with the same system as the NHL one. Frost could be learning AV's system....but nope.

Right Sid's friend?

 

[Tripod]

I'm always baffled by the case of "he needs development". Take a look at a comparable - Robert Thomas of the Blues. guy played 70 games for them last season, mostly in a 3rd line W or 4th line C role, pots 30 points, and while not a 'key' to the Blues success, there were plays i remember him making that were important plays throughout the game. He's currently 20, and was taken 7 spots before Morgan Frost. He didnt have to be a key contributor on the NHL team to be a contributor to a stanley cup winning team.

None of us can speak to whether he (or the blues) would have been better off with him on the team vs of of it and spending last year in the AHL. But I'd like to think its not outlandish to think that he learned a lot more playing smaller minutes against real competition than he would have playing in the AHL.

And now this year, Thomas is on a 50 point pace. Wow...and here I was told the NHL is not a developmental league.

Nick Suzuki is another example...getting better as the year has gone on. A guy who Frost has been better than the last 2 years in the OHL and in the WJC.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

I'm not leaving him there. It's just a 1 year stay which is fine for an adjustment period to the lifestyle change and to fine tune parts of the game that even Gordon shouldn't **** up. Plus at his level of development he's probably still also working with the development team along with the AHL coaches and the skills coach.

Remember the quotes from Hart last year about the differences in WHL/AHL/NHL life...

Hart the goalie who played like half a season and is now developing in the NHL?

And you still have nothing to say that Frost being in the AHL helps him learn the lifestyle/being a pro/whatever better then being in the NHL.

What if he comes up and lives with one of the vets and watches how they take care of themselves as an NHL pro every day?

Again the AHL isn't a magic bullet. Players going there doesn't mean automatic development. Also players can develop in the NHL as we have seen with tons of our roster over the last 3+ years.

 

[Rebels57]

Hi it's Twitter

 

[dragonoffrost]

So Pageau is truly a 35 point player with average defence.

What do you think Frost is?

Because you stated earlier that the difference between the two would be worth the price of the trade. Which is rumored to be a 1st+prospect.

Plus do you really think he wont get overplayed as a UFA coming of a career year? That literally happens every year with some player in the NHL. GMs can't help themselves, it's literally why a salary cap had go be put in place.

I have never said I was trading for Pageau. Actually I am staying away from him. I am just saying the idea he doesn't play defense isn't true and that his offense this year isn't where he historically is.

What I did say is that if this team is making a deal it's for a 4c and that Frost is better served with ONE YEAR in the AHL. Now it's being twisted into trading for Pageau and keeping Frost in the AHL for many years. And people wonder why I get aggrevated....(not that you are saying I've said all of this)

 

[Starat327]

Hi it's Twitter

That guys trading our next two firsts for Pageau, for sure.