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2018 NHL Entry Draft Thread (Less then 24 Hours Edition)

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G0bias said:
Any word on Berggren, Gustafsson? Do they have O'Brien even higher now?

Kravtsov as high as 6 might have to make me reconsider having him just outside the top 10.
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I did post about Berggren earlier, late first early second. Didn't like a lot of Swedish forwards but Berggren is very talented.

Only comments about Gustafsson were that he had his warts.

O'Brien has risen to a late first and early second pick.
 
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Post season 2017. We had been bounced in the 1st round.

Patches had another 30 goal year and dud of a play offs. Writing was on the wall he needed to be traded and many of us were calling for it. Two full seasons left on a great contract.

Chucky had been written off as a centre. Our top 2 centres were a good 3C in Danault and a Pleks in free fall decline.

Rangers had bounced us in the 1st and then got dropped in the 2nd round. They had 2 solid 2Cs in Stepan and Zibanejed.

Draft of 2017 was full of good Cs. Ten of the 1st 13 players picked were listed as Cs and 16 Cs picked in the 1st round.

Rangers decide their C depth wasn't good enough and packaged Stepan to get the 7th overall, and a guy with 1C potential in Lias Andersson and also another guy with1C potential with their 21st in Chytil.

We picked a C at 25th, which is good. But dammit we could have scored another C or 2. This wouldn't have been proactive but a lot better than this horse crap and we wouldn't be trying to reach for a C at 3 this year.

Bridge under the water and all, but MB needs to really look ahead and have an iota of foresight.
 
yianik said:
Post season 2017. We had been bounced in the 1st round.

Patches had another 30 goal year and dud of a play offs. Writing was on the wall he needed to be traded and many of us were calling for it. Two full seasons left on a great contract.

Chucky had been written off as a centre. Our top 2 centres were a good 3C in Danault and a Pleks in free fall decline.

Rangers had bounced us in the 1st and then got dropped in the 2nd round. They had 2 solid 2Cs in Stepan and Zibanejed.

Draft of 2017 was full of good Cs. Ten of the 1st 13 players picked were listed as Cs and 16 Cs picked in the 1st round.

Rangers decide their C depth wasn't good enough and packaged Stepan to get the 7th overall, and a guy with 1C potential in Lias Andersson and also another guy with1C potential with their 21st in Chytil.

We picked a C at 25th, which is good. But dammit we could have scored another C or 2. This wouldn't have been proactive but a lot better than this horse crap and we wouldn't be trying to reach for a C at 3 this year.

Bridge under the water and all, but MB needs to really look ahead and have an iota of foresight.
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Kotkaniemi at three is not a freaking reach
 
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Mrb1p said:
1. Using players drafted 30 years ago does little to prove your point, wouldnt you say? Kuznetsov/Tarasenko were drafted 8 years ago, Burmistrov was drafted 8th in the same draft, Filatov 6th a year earlier. Yes, they both were well known for their talent, but I dont adhere to the belief that Kuznetsov was that great a prospect going in the draft. Theres a history of teams taking a flyer on elite talent even if theres a threat from the KHL, Malkin, Ovi, Filatov, etc.

2. I think you misread me somewhere. I never claimed that Kotkaniemi is a prospect on the level of Matthews and Barkov (nor that Barkov was close to Matthews in his draft year, I think theres three distinct tiers of prospects, here.) Making claims like "Kotkaniemi could be Monahan but he has work to do" just makes it seem like hes not that great a prospect, meanwhile hes one of the best center prospect ive seen in a while. I think realistic upside is somewhat of a term that doesnt make sense really, obviously the likeliness of every non-exceptional prospect is not 70-80, but a lot of weirder things have happened. As an example, I think Kotkaniemi has similar upside to Galchenyuk, who was pretty much seen as a possible 70ish points C, which was pretty much Barkov/Matthews territory.

3. Bringing up age doesnt mean much. Development curves change, but I know that you already know this. If hes a 1C you have to consider a lot of people 1Cs.

Also, I think they should be picked as high as their value take them, here, its behind a guy like Boqvist who has legit 1D game breaking upside.
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1. I was assuming you followed the 2010 draft back then. The reason I gave examples from 30 years ago is because that was the last time there was any real, tangible doubt players wouldn't crossover.

For a bit of historical context, the KHL was relatively new, Putin wanted it to have credibility and Russian oil Billionnaires were handing out insane contracts to its players. The NHL didn't have a transfer agreement anymore and there was huge uncertainty around Russians. A guy like Kuznetsov was making 5M$ US tax-free before coming over. Burmistrov is actually a great example of what I'm saying: he was drafted around where you expect his talent to be because the doubts were mitigated: he was already playing in the CHL.

But, don't take my word for it, here's Bob Mckenzie, just before the draft:

With each passing year, more and more NHL teams are expressing reservations if not all out rejection of drafting Russian players because of the uncertainty of when or if they'll come to the NHL or whether they'll return to the KHL and Russia the first time they hit a bump in the road in North America. There are more than a few NHL teams who are going into the 2010 entry draft with an unwritten policy of NOT drafting any Russian players no matter what.

"We just can't afford to take the chance on them not coming or leaving once they get here," one scout said. "They're just not a consideration for us at all right now."
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New York Ranger director of player personnel Gordie Clark said the Rangers have enormous faith in their Russian scouting staff to advise them on which Russians are good bets or not and they try to judge each player on his own merit. The Rangers, of course, took Alexei Cherepanov 17th overall in 2007 and Cherepanov was scheduled to come to the NHL but tragically died on the ice in a KHL game because of a heart condition.

Clark's openness to considering Russian talent has spurred a lot of talk that the Rangers could use the 10th overall pick in this year's draft to take a Russian, but there are clearly more organizations that are fearful, some to the point where choosing a Russian is not even a consideration.
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Washington was considered to have the steal of the draft, if he would come over.

Kuznetsov was actually on record saying he was happy in the KHL - that pretty much did it for him. Actually, he had 2 years left and resigned for 2 more years afterwards. There's an excellent article from McPhee detailing how hard it was to make him come over.

So, giving examples like Malkin and Ovechkin where those doubts were just not present is not understanding the context of the time. Kuznetsov was an elite talent, everyone knew it.

2. You did though. Saying Monahan, a regular 60 point top 20 scorer for centers, is his VERY conservative upside, that's exactly what you're implying. Having a much higher upside means you're talking top 5-10 center talent. So, why aren't you discussing him for pick no.2? That's where those centers end up being picked. It's not a realistic expectation and becomes a case of everyone with a decent level of talent becoming a potential elite player - the point here is discussing probability of attaining it, that's how, basically, we rank these players.

3. Yes, age does matter, quite a bit. Why ? Because, on a big population (i.e. the NHL drafts through years of players picked high and low), you'll notice the best have tended to be the best from their drafts year (and earlier) by quite a bit, and continued so unto their NHL careers. But on the other hand, when a player gets an upside in development, you still have to consider what hes done (i.e. multiple 60 point seasons by 23). And I'm comfortable saying that Monahan, regardless if you think is a no.1C, is a fine pick in most years for picks #3-4-5. Kotkaniemi could be that top 10-15 center, sure. But, Zadina could be a 40-50 goal scorer, Boqvist a 60-70 points defensemen and so on. Chances are they're not. Very few players are past the 2nd pick (obviously less true for defensemen). Really, I'm saying if Kotkaniemi ends up like that, which isn't a far fetched scenario, thats a good pick at 3 - that he has legitimate high end offensive abilities is just a bonus, but not a realistic expectation at this point.

But yeah, I do get your point. JP is super talented. He might need work on a number of things, but if he does, he can be an elite player. Thats what makes him, to you, a 3rd pick... Because if he doesn't, hes still a great player - hence high upside, high floor.
 
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Mrb1p said:
Kotkaniemi at three is not a freaking reach
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I like Kotkaniemi quite a bit, but he is ranked anywhere from 8 to 18 so it sure sounds as if we are going off the board at 3. I don't live and die with scouts, but they know something.

But this is TTs ball, if he sees Kotkaniemi as no.1 C then we do it. But TT has to be right.
 
yianik said:
Post season 2017. We had been bounced in the 1st round.

Patches had another 30 goal year and dud of a play offs. Writing was on the wall he needed to be traded and many of us were calling for it. Two full seasons left on a great contract.

Chucky had been written off as a centre. Our top 2 centres were a good 3C in Danault and a Pleks in free fall decline.

Rangers had bounced us in the 1st and then got dropped in the 2nd round. They had 2 solid 2Cs in Stepan and Zibanejed.

Draft of 2017 was full of good Cs. Ten of the 1st 13 players picked were listed as Cs and 16 Cs picked in the 1st round.

Rangers decide their C depth wasn't good enough and packaged Stepan to get the 7th overall, and a guy with 1C potential in Lias Andersson and also another guy with1C potential with their 21st in Chytil.

We picked a C at 25th, which is good. But dammit we could have scored another C or 2. This wouldn't have been proactive but a lot better than this horse crap and we wouldn't be trying to reach for a C at 3 this year.

Bridge under the water and all, but MB needs to really look ahead and have an iota of foresight.
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Why do you think I've taken up calling him The Idiot? Not because he's a character in a Dostoevsky novel.
 
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To me, it's BPA. Always.

Pick whoever's available between Zadina and Svechnikov and be done with it.

That being said, I don't really dislike the idea of trading down with Arizona and picking Kotkaniemi or one of Bouchard/Dobson/Boqvist/Hughes, but we have a high pick, pick a clear cut-above-the-rest player when you have the chance. It's a gamble to trade down, and we can't afford to gamble anymore.
 


Pretty good highlight video showing Jesperi as a 15/16 year old in Jr A, as well as some plays that didn't make his Liiga goal/assist highlight reel.
 
Danger Zone said:
To me, it's BPA. Always.

Pick whoever's available between Zadina and Svechnikov and be done with it.

That being said, I don't really dislike the idea of trading down with Arizona and picking Kotkaniemi or one of Bouchard/Dobson/Boqvist/Hughes, but we have a high pick, pick a clear cut-above-the-rest player when you have the chance. It's a gamble to trade down, and we can't afford to gamble anymore.
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Zadina isn't a clear cut above the rest player. That's why the debate rages.
 
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WeThreeKings said:
Zadina isn't a clear cut above the rest player. That's why the debate rages.
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It’s crazy that for such a high pick, there is such a huge difference in people’s opinions..Anyways, only 2 weeks left before the conversation switches to who we drafted and who me missed out on.

Did you post your final list WTK?
 
FrankMTL said:
It’s crazy that for such a high pick, there is such a huge difference in people’s opinions..Anyways, only 2 weeks left before the conversation switches to who we drafted and who me missed out on.

Did you post your final list WTK?
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I have not because I am flirting with doing a short list instead.. really cutting it down and saying, would I be happy that the Habs selected this player? Even if I think that say McIsaac will be a second pairing D man, would I be happy with them selecting him? If not then maybe I leave him off my list..

I'm really experimenting this year since the whole Poehling thing where I had a guy on my list right where we picked him but that was simply due to the likelihood of him being picked there and his safe upside

So we will see.
 
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WeThreeKings said:
I have not because I am flirting with doing a short list instead.. really cutting it down and saying, would I be happy that the Habs selected this player? Even if I think that say McIsaac will be a second pairing D man, would I be happy with them selecting him? If not then maybe I leave him off my list..

I'm really experimenting this year since the whole Poehling thing where I had a guy on my list right where we picked him but that was simply due to the likelihood of him being picked there and his safe upside

So we will see.
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Who did you want after Chytil went off the board? Kostin?
 
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