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2018 NHL Entry Draft Thread (Less then 24 Hours Edition)

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Mrb1p said:
Neither was Kuznetsov when he was drafted, neither was Scheifele... relying on absolutes isnt doing any justice to the quality of prospect Kotkaniemi is
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Nobody here's relying on absolutes, just tempering with a dose of reality. If you see Kotkaniemi reaching that level, then he needs to be in your conversation for number 1, not number 3 or you're being inconsistent. It's just not a realistic expectation for someone with his draft pedigree, but it is for someone with Jack Hughes' pedigree where you can reasonnably expect he gets there.

As great as Scheifele is, I'd take Barkov and Matthews over him without a moments hesitation. They're just plain better players.

And about Kuznetsov. What you're saying needs to be elaborated cause it's not quite true: there was never any doubt he had an elite skillset and complete offensive abilities. You can go back and read the reports if you want to, but, like Tarasenko, you had some scouts compare his talent to some serious franchise players.
 
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Fozz said:
There are more and more junior players that have elite skating. Here's the thing: those that don't need to significantly improve that skill or they more than likely won't make it. Some of these kids try and work real hard at it but simply can't get faster. If an 18 year old has skating issues, the team that drafts him takes a significant risk. Especially if that player has had knee injuries in the past.
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Nah, that's bullshit. To make the NHL you have to be a good hockey player, not a good speed skater. There's enough examples and counterexamples to show the point that elite skating at 18 is neither necessary, nor sufficient for an NHL career. It's a nice bonus, and one less thing to worry about. But ultimately it's improvable, and far more so than say, being really stupid.
 
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le_sean said:
If this stuff about wanting a defender is true, i wonder who. Dobson fits that Timmins profile, but really, another RD?

Could be Hughes as well. Emphasis on speed, Timmins loves NCAA players. Would be a huge roll of the dice.
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I would love Hughes, I believe we have a lot at RD and nothing at LD but he doesn’t seem to fit our team profile.
 
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Glad WTK and others are enjoying the Black book this year, obviously lots of work put into this in the last couple of months. PDF is available now, print version should be on amazon in the next couple of days, out of our control at this point.

FYI, once again we will be offering a coupon for $5.00 off - just use coupon code hfboards19 at checkout when you buy the PDF version of the black book.

2018 NHL Draft Black Book – Now Available!! - HockeyProspect.com | 2018 NHL Draft
 
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Mrb1p said:
Monahan is barely a 1C while playing with Gaudreau, Kotkaniemis top end is a lot higher than that.
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Scheifele's doing it with Laine, Byfuglien, Ehlers and Wheeler on the PP.

His regular linemates are Wheeler and Connor. Wheeler is an even better player than Gaudreau. Monahan scored 62 at 19, Scheifele broke out at 22 with 61. We'll see where Monahan ends up, but he would've been fine as a 3rd pick and easily the best choice at 4.

If we get a 6'2" center who scores 60-70 points at 3, I'm happy. That's top 10-20 production among centers.
 
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Andrei79 said:
Nobody here's relying on absolutes, just tempering with a dose of reality. If you see Kotkaniemi reaching that level, then he needs to be in your conversation for number 1, not number 3 or you're being inconsistent. It's just not a realistic expectation for someone with his draft pedigree, but it is for someone with Jack Hughes' pedigree where you can reasonnably expect he gets there.

As great as Scheifele is, I'd take Barkov and Matthews over him without a moments hesitation. They're just plain better players.

And about Kuznetsov. What you're saying needs to be elaborated cause it's not quite true: there was never any doubt he had an elite skillset and complete offensive abilities. You can go back and read the reports if you want to, but, like Tarasenko, you had some scouts compare his talent to some serious franchise players.
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And yet he was picked 24th OA.

Disagree heavily on Scheifele.

Also, i disagree that he should be picked 1st, Dahlin is a near generational level player at this point, Svechnikov looks to be exceptional.

Theres nothing in Kotkaniemis toolkit that makes me say "his ceiling is a goal scoring 2C a la Monahan".
 
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NotProkofievian said:
Monahan scores 30 per year and actually received a 1st place Selke vote this year. 4th in the league in takeaways. I think Kotkaniemi is a lot shiftier, and has better vision, but the result would be fantastic.
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Every time I watch him Monahan is just so.... passive and not even close to being the type of guy that tilts the ice for you... i cant see it at all for Kotkaniemi.
 
Mrb1p said:
Obviously, but its also not delusional to expect more.
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Monahan has the second most points from his draft year, only behind MacKinnon. To be fair, he also has the most GP but he's great defensively. Your expectations are unrealistic if you "expect" more- it's not out of the question, but you can't just expect your 3rd-5th overall pick to become better than a goal-scoring first line C with wicked defense
 
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Mrb1p said:
And yet he was picked 24th OA.

Disagree heavily on Scheifele.

Also, i disagree that he should be picked 1st, Dahlin is a near generational level player at this point, Svechnikov looks to be exceptional.

Theres nothing in Kotkaniemis toolkit that makes me say "his ceiling is a goal scoring 2C a la Monahan".
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Don't mind the disagreement on Scheifele, but:

1. I'll assume ignorance on the reasons why the Russians fell in 2010. Why were Fedorov and Bure 4th and 6th round talents ? Extreme examples, but teams steer clear of wasting picks on players that never come over, even if the talent is elite.

2. A 70-80+ point center is exceptional. Actually, it's the standard for centers picked 1st or 2nd OA. If you're truly convinced that's his realistic upside, then it wouldn't make sense not to have him in the conversation for your 2nd OA pick, at the very least.

3. How many 2nd line centers have done this by age 23:
top 25 finish
top 20 finish
top 15 finish
top 20 finish
in points amongst centers.
+Selke votes.

Where do you think players like this should get picked in any given draft ?
 
Good job by @sandviper comparing top 10 lists from his three mainstream draft sources: ISS, FC and McKeen's. I'll reprise his compilation here without using the quote function, so we won't need to "click to expand" in order to see the contents:

Sandviper wrote:

Bobby Mac's list should be out soon and it's close to consensus since he gathers information from scouts, but here is my list based on consensus of ISS, FC and Mckeen's (I'm not here to debate quality of lists... I just want to grab a few sources from Elite Prospects and make it an odd number so that 2/3 means consensus).

Clear #1 to #3
Dahlin - unanimous across all 3.
Svechikov - unanimous across all 3.
Zadina - unanimous across all 3.

Consensus #4 to #6
Tkachuk - consensus (McKeen's has Hughes #4).
Wahlstrom - consensus (McKeen's has Tkachuk #4).
Bouchard - consensus (ISS and McKeen's has Bouchard #6).

Consensus #10
Dobson - consensus #10 (ISS has him as high as #8)

All over the place in the top-10, but consensus top-10
Hughes - Was as high as #4 for McKeen's, #6 for FC and #7 for ISS.
Boqvist - Only consensus here was Boqvist is outside the top-6
Veleno (wth?) - ISS and McKeen's have him #9 and #10 repectively.

Consensus outside the top-12
Kotkaniemi - All 3 had him no higher than #13

Basically, nobody had Kotkaniemi in their top-10, let alone top-12. Now, I don't agree with this, and end of the day, teams will go with THEIR list. That said, if Kotkaniemi is our target, I think trading back as far as #6 probably still gets us him.

We'll need to add or integrate to the above, RLR's and the HP's lists:

Red Line Report Top 10:

1 Dahlin
2 Svech
3 Zadina
4 Tkachuk
5 Bouchard
6 Wahlstrom
7 Dobson
8 Boqvist
9 Hughes
10 Smith

Hockey Prospect (Black Book) Top 10:

1DAHLIN, RASMUSFROLUNDASWEDEN6' 2.8"185 lbs *D
2SVECHNIKOV, ANDREIBARRIEOHL6' 2.0"192 lbs *RW
3TKACHUK, BRADYBOSTON UNIVERSITYH-EAST6' 3.0"192 lbs *LW
4ZADINA, FILIPHALIFAXQMJHL6' 0.3"197 lbs *RW
5DOBSON, NOAHACADIE-BATHURSTQMJHL6' 3.0"177 lbs *D
6KRAVTSOV, VITALICHELYABINSKRUSSIA6' 2.8"184 lbs*RW
7WAHLSTROM, OLIVERUSA U-18NTDP6' 1.3"208 lbs *RW
8KOTKANIEMI, JESPERIASSATFINLAND6' 2.3"182 lbs *C
9HUGHES, QUINTINMICHIGANBIG105' 9.8"173 lbs *D
10BOUCHARD, EVANLONDONOHL6' 2.0"196 lbs *D
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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Bacchus1 said:
So, since Brady Tkachuk is taking the college route, won’t there be some hesitation by some teams to take him due to the college free-agency loop-hole?

What a disaster if he didn’t want to play for the Habs, so he just sticks it out for one year at Boston.
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the actual loop hole he doesn't qualify for, that's for players drafted that don't go directly to the NCAA, they can opt out after their Junior year and become a UFA. Since he's in the NCAA this doesn't apply. Now after his Senior year he can refuse to sign and become a UFA on August 15th. The Habs would get the 3th overall pick in 2022. But it's highly unlikely as chances are he either plays in the NHL/AHL next year or the following year.

yianik said:
Whose faster, Kotkaniemi or Poehling?
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I have only seen a few clips of Kotkaniemi, but I would say Poehling as he's got good speed for sure. Kotkaniemi just looks kind of weird on his skates.
 
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Andrei79 said:
Don't mind the disagreement on Scheifele, but:

1. I'll assume ignorance on the reasons why the Russians fell in 2010. Why were Fedorov and Bure 4th and 6th round talents ? Extreme examples, but teams steer clear of wasting picks on players that never come over, even if the talent is elite.

2. A 70-80+ point center is exceptional. Actually, it's the standard for centers picked 1st or 2nd OA. If you're truly convinced that's his realistic upside, then it wouldn't make sense not to have him in the conversation for your 2nd OA pick, at the very least.

3. How many 2nd line centers have done this by age 23:
top 25 finish
top 20 finish
top 15 finish
top 20 finish
in points amongst centers.
+Selke votes.

Where do you think players like this should get picked in any given draft ?
Click to expand...

1. Using players drafted 30 years ago does little to prove your point, wouldnt you say? Kuznetsov/Tarasenko were drafted 8 years ago, Burmistrov was drafted 8th in the same draft, Filatov 6th a year earlier. Yes, they both were well known for their talent, but I dont adhere to the belief that Kuznetsov was that great a prospect going in the draft. Theres a history of teams taking a flyer on elite talent even if theres a threat from the KHL, Malkin, Ovi, Filatov, etc.

2. I think you misread me somewhere. I never claimed that Kotkaniemi is a prospect on the level of Matthews and Barkov (nor that Barkov was close to Matthews in his draft year, I think theres three distinct tiers of prospects, here.) Making claims like "Kotkaniemi could be Monahan but he has work to do" just makes it seem like hes not that great a prospect, meanwhile hes one of the best center prospect ive seen in a while. I think realistic upside is somewhat of a term that doesnt make sense really, obviously the likeliness of every non-exceptional prospect is not 70-80, but a lot of weirder things have happened. As an example, I think Kotkaniemi has similar upside to Galchenyuk, who was pretty much seen as a possible 70ish points C, which was pretty much Barkov/Matthews territory.

3. Bringing up age doesnt mean much. Development curves change, but I know that you already know this. If hes a 1C you have to consider a lot of people 1Cs.

Also, I think they should be picked as high as their value take them, here, its behind a guy like Boqvist who has legit 1D game breaking upside.
 
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Fozz said:
Let's get real here... Kotkaniemi isn't on the same level as Barkov and Matthews. It's not that close either.
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No he's not at the same level as Barkov if we look at the whole seasons work, but.

Barkov wasn't a rookie, Kotkaniemi was, Barkov was a beast from day1 on his draft year where as Kotkaniemi saw a nice development throughout the year.
Barkov missed the draft offseason due to surgery and right after returning from the combine Kotkaniemi started to practise with Assat.
Both have the same weakness, Kotkaniemi is just more raw on top of that.

Who knows what's the difference in October on their +1 seasons, the injuries really hurt Barkovs early development.

"I need to train so I can get better"
Jesperi Kotkaniemi jo tiistaina mukaan Ässien harjoituksiin – NHL:n testiviikolla ansaitsi yhden lepopäivän
Mentions Barkov as his idol at the end of article again.
 
Here are wingers drafted from 3 to 10 in the 10 drafts from 2007 to 2016 (wingers as noted by hockeydb in their entry draft listings):

2007
  • Voracek (7th overall)
2008
  • Filatov (6th overall)
  • Boedker (8th overall)
  • Bailey (9th overall)
2009
  • E Kane (4th overall)
  • Paajarvi (10th overall)
2010
  • Niederreiter (5th overall)
  • Connolly (6th overall)
  • Skinner (7th overall)
  • Granlund (9th overall)
2011
  • Huberdeau (3rd overall)
2012
  • Galchenyuk (3rd overall)
2013
  • Drouin (3rd overall)
  • Nickushkin (10th overall)
2014
  • Dal Colle (5th overall)
  • Virtanen (6th overall)
  • W Nylander (8th overall - listed as C)
  • Ehlers (9th overall)
  • Ritchie (10th overall)
2015
  • Marner (4th overall - listed as C)
  • Meier (9th overall)
  • Rantanen (10th overall)
2016
  • Puljujarvi (4th overall)
  • Tkachuk (6th overall)
  • Keller (7th overall - listed as C)
  • A Nylander (8th overall)
Make of it what you will. I think I'd roll the dice with a centre or dman.
 
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I officially vote to change Kotkienemi's short hfboards name from Kotka (puke) to K-nemi (awesome).
 
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