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2018 NHL Entry Draft Thread (Less then 24 Hours Edition)

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Garnet76 said:
What happening if we pass on Zadina for a center and the center becomes a 40-45pt center while Zadina puts up 40 goal seasons? The theory goes 2 ways. Reaching for a center in a weak draft for centers makes me nervous. I would draft the best player at 3 and target multiple centers with the top 6 upside in the 2nd rd. My thoughts on it
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It does. Which would you regret more? Passing on an 11-20 center for a 25 goal scoring winger, or passing on a 40 goal scoring winger for a 40-45pt center?
 
DramaticGloveSave said:
Jost and Brown were consistently top 10 guys. In fact many here wanted us to take Jost at 8.
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Okay but 8th pick isn’t the 3rd pick. No one would advocate either for the 3rd. Not comparable at all. They were actually 11th and 12th on the TSN list.
 
DramaticGloveSave said:
Well I have watched him, and did grade him. I think both are 2nd line C types. Maybe Kot ends up better, but it won't be significant, and still be in the same tier. The wildcard I guess is if Kot miraculously improves his skating. If he does, then he could certainly end up a cut above Poehling, as increased speed combined with his reach will make him tough to handle. But as of now, they both project to be big, smart, 2-way playmaking centers with skill. Not quite #1s, but quality #2s.
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Conveniently ignoring ever other asset Kot has over Poehling.
 
DramaticGloveSave said:
If there was even probability to these things sure. But Zadina is much more likely a 40 goal guy than Kotkaniemi is a Legit #1 C.
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We can worry about probability once we have people's preferences. You attach a weight to the event, and then you scale that by the probability that the event happens. Then you can do a few different things: choose the player who has the lowest average weight, or the lowest maximum weight. That sort of thing.

But you'd regret taking a 25 goal scoring winger over an 11-20 center more than a 40-45 point center over a 40 goal scoring winger?
 
NotProkofievian said:
We can worry about probability once we have people's preferences. You attach a weight to the event, and then you scale that by the probability that the event happens. Then you can do a few different things: choose the player who has the lowest average weight, or the lowest maximum weight. That sort of thing.

But you'd regret taking a 25 goal scoring winger over an 11-20 center more than a 40-45 point center over a 40 goal scoring winger?
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Because we need the C, I'd prefer the C, sure. I'm not debating the values of centers lol
 
DramaticGloveSave said:
Because we need the C, I'd prefer the C, sure. I'm not debating the values of centers lol
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Well in that case, choosing Jesperi would minimize your worst case regret. If you want to minimize your average regret, we need to talk probabilities. So, how likely do you think it is that Zadina is a 40 goal scorer, and how likely do you think it is that Jesperi is a future 11-20 center?
 
NotProkofievian said:
Well in that case, choosing Jesperi would minimize your worst case regret. If you want to minimize your average regret, we need to talk probabilities. So, how likely do you think it is that Zadina is a 40 goal scorer, and how likely do you think it is that Jesperi is a future 11-20 center?
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I think Zadina has a good chance to be a guy who hits 40 and lives in the high 30 goal area much like a Tarasenko. Kotkaniemi needs to completely overhaul his skating and see a huge improvement in that regard before he'll ever be a Legit #1C.
 
NotProkofievian said:
Well in that case, choosing Jesperi would minimize your worst case regret. If you want to minimize your average regret, we need to talk probabilities. So, how likely do you think it is that Zadina is a 40 goal scorer, and how likely do you think it is that Jesperi is a future 11-20 center?
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It depends on what we define as a 40 goal scorer though, one time, a few timws [2 to 4], perrenial? 11-20 C is a lot more probable, as theres been like 30 players that scored 40 at least once in the last decade.
 
DramaticGloveSave said:
I think Zadina has a good chance to be a guy who hits 40 and lives in the high 30 goal area much like a Tarasenko. Kotkaniemi needs to completely overhaul his skating and see a huge improvement in that regard before he'll ever be a Legit #1C.
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I'm actually pretty okay with passing on a better chance at a 35 goal scoring winger, for a lower chance at a 1C.

Where we differ is that I think his skating issues are seriously overblown. It doesn't need a complete overhaul. He needs to be more upright and work on getting a full extension in his stride. If your skating coach can't fix that, you should fire them.
 
NotProkofievian said:
I'm actually pretty okay with passing on a better chance at a 35 goal scoring winger, for a lower chance at a 1C.

Where we differ is that I think his skating issues are seriously overblown. It doesn't need a complete overhaul. He needs to be more upright and work on getting a full extension in his stride. If your skating coach can't fix that, you should fire them.
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You could say it's like passing on Tarasenko for Eller instead of Monahan for Gallagher.

(I think those are realistic ranges for both players)
 
Mrb1p said:
Every team is a threat to take a center, theyre the biggest trade chip you can have.
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I don't think the Sens, Coyetes, Canucks, Rangers, Oilers are taking Kotkaniemi. Look at their depth charts... You think they take a gamble on Kotkaniemi over the other guys ranked in the top 10?
 
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