2018 NHL Entry Draft Thread (Less then 24 Hours Edition)

[Habs Halifax]

To be fair, +/- is a terrible stat.

+/- is only terrible if you put all your faith into it. It's an indicator and an overall trend factor. Could also be used to compare one player vs another on the same team. Guess who has the best career +/- of all time? Big Bird! The guy was a shut down beast and impossible to get through... his career +/- reflects that. The all time +/- leaders are either elite level shut down defenseman or elite level forwards who maintain an attack on the offensive end.

Galchenyuk and Drouin were -31 and -28 while Gallagher was -13 and Patch was -16 last year. I'm pretty sure you can figure out this means something

 

[admiralcadillac]

I am a bit worried he is going to do a Yakupov. He will likely play in the NHL next year no matter what team drafts him, and his development might stall big time. I think he'll be a good player, but I'm willing to bet at least one of the other guys we are all talking about will be better.

How does that reasoning not apply to any other prospect?

 

[Habs76]

+/- is only terrible if you put all your faith into it. It's an indicator and an overall trend factor. Could also be used to compare one player vs another on the same team. Guess who has the best career +/- of all time? Big Bird! The guy was a shut down beast and impossible to get through... his career +/- reflects that. The all time +/- leaders are either elite level shut down defenseman or elite level forwards who maintain an attack on the offensive end.

Galchenyuk and Drouin were -31 and -28 while Gallagher was -13 and Patch was -16 last year. I'm pretty sure you can figure out this means something

In all honesty Galchenyuk looked pretty good defensively last year

 

[Locks]

Just saying, if we are wanting a C this year, we better draft one. What I mean is, draft an actual center in Kotkaniemi and not a winger like Tkachuk or even Wahlstrom and hope to convert them into a center.

Of course, need to mention that Kotkaniemi has played a lot of wing this past year...

From the MB interview, that appears to be the intention. And the idea of getting a C next year is not a full-proof. Nobody can guaranty us a good enough draft position next year. Who would have predicted that after historically terrible season and having to trade a top line forward Colorado would be in the playoffs or an expansion team would be in the Cup final. Or Habs can end up next year like Florida this year - close to PO but out of range for the top guys in the draft. Besides, by next year Kotkaniemi will have accumulated two pro seasons under his belt and likely ready for the show.

Also, yesterday's report of Kotkaniemi (along with Dobson and Bouchard ) being interviewed by the Wings correlates with today's report by TSN:

"Custance reports that the Red Wings preference is to select a defenceman or a centre with their top pick and have no plans to move out of the Top 10.
'We’re also comfortable (doing nothing),' Holland said. 'We’re going to get a good player at six."

I don't see why Ottawa would want to swap picks if they can very likely select the dman they want - reportedly Bouchard - with the fourth pick? So basically the likelihood of a trade down is very low at this point.

 

[le_sean]

In all honesty Galchenyuk looked pretty good defensively last year

He had some nice backchecks, but that’s as a winger. As a centre he has no idea where to place himself defensively. Certainly he’d have more effort than JD, but it would amount to the same in the defensive zone.

We just need to accept that both are wingers. I hope the coaching staff realizes it too.

 

[Habs Halifax]

In all honesty Galchenyuk looked pretty good defensively last year

I think he made smarter plays with the puck but I think his -31 is more of an indicator that he (and his line-mates) could not maintain puck possession on the offensive end and got scored on when they were on the ice. Like I said, +/- is only terrible if you put all your faith into it. There are trends you can gather from it. They don't keep track of the stat for nothing

 

[Habs Halifax]

He had some nice backchecks, but that’s as a winger. As a centre he has no idea where to place himself defensively. Certainly he’d have more effort than JD, but it would amount to the same in the defensive zone.

We just need to accept that both are wingers. I hope the coaching staff realizes it too.

I think we all realize this. However, what do you want us to do? Re-sign Pleky? and go with Pleky, Danault, DLR, Vejdemo? Until Poehling is ready and if we are able to get a center in this next draft, one of Galchenyuk or Drouin will have to play center. The day we get a more proven center who can play a 200' game, that's when we move them back to wing. It's a necessary evil for now...

 

[Frank JT]

I think we all realize this. However, what do you want us to do? Re-sign Pleky? and go with Pleky, Danault, DLR, Vejdemo? Until Poehling is ready and if we are able to get a center in this next draft, one of Galchenyuk or Drouin will have to play center. The day we get a more proven center who can play a 200' game, that's when we move them back to wing. It's a necessary evil for now...

Yes. Pleky for one year. And a top5 pick in june 2019...

 

[durojean]

He had some nice backchecks, but that’s as a winger. As a centre he has no idea where to place himself defensively. Certainly he’d have more effort than JD, but it would amount to the same in the defensive zone.

We just need to accept that both are wingers. I hope the coaching staff realizes it too.

He covered Drouin's center mistake all year when they played together.

I'm fairly certain that if he started there he would have done a good defensive job.

You have to understand that he had to get out of position to help out jojo.

The reason you think he would be all over the place at center is because it was not his position this year

 

[WinterLion]

How does that reasoning not apply to any other prospect?

I feel like Zadina has a pretty deveoped game compared to some of the other players. Like Yakupov did. Zadina is older and is already pretty thick and physically developed at 200 lbs. I worry that he might have already done the bulk of his developing, where as some of the other guys have more room to grow. I still like him and he is already a great player and will likely step right in and have an impact. I was just voicing a concern.

 

[WinterLion]

He’s not a stupid player like Yakupov. Yak never had any idea how to play the game of hockey. He’s just a good skater with a nice shot but completely lost otherwise.

Yeah I do agree. I don't think he will have the same fate as Yakupov... I'm just worried about how much of his development has already happened.

 

[le_sean]

He covered Drouin's center mistake all year when they played together.

I'm fairly certain that if he started there he would have done a good defensive job.

You have to understand that he had to get out of position to help out jojo.

The reason you think he would be all over the place at center is because it was not his position this year

Nice revisionism. He’s out of place because he can’t read plays defensively and is not a good skater. His backchecks were targeting guys with the puck on their stick. He doesn’t cover passing lanes well at all. This idea that Galchenyuk is good defensively is just ridiculous. Drouin is lazy, Galchenyuk is dumb. Neither is good defensively.

 

[sandviper]

I feel like Zadina has a pretty deveoped game compared to some of the other players. Like Yakupov did. Zadina is older and is already pretty thick and physically developed at 200 lbs. I worry that he might have already done the bulk of his developing, where as some of the other guys have more room to grow. I still like him and he is already a great player and will likely step right in and have an impact. I was just voicing a concern.

While I agree that he may be a little more physically developed, he only turns 19 in November. Kotkaniemi is one of the younger kids in the draft and Zadina is only ~9 months older.

Granted, I understand there can be big differences. My son is 9 months younger than my nephew, but they LOOK like 2-3 years apart. However, my wife is around 5' (I'm 5'10) and my sister is 5'7 and bro-in-law is 6'1. Doesn't help the tallest male among my wife's side of the family (paternal and maternal) is 5'8.

I mean, sure, maybe Zadina's physical development ceiling is now lower than others due to age differences, but I think ultimately his development relative to his peers will be determined more by genetics. Hughes for example I think has room to develop physically as well, but he'll never be 6'1, 215lbs.

 

[admiralcadillac]

I feel like Zadina has a pretty deveoped game compared to some of the other players. Like Yakupov did. Zadina is older and is already pretty thick and physically developed at 200 lbs. I worry that he might have already done the bulk of his developing, where as some of the other guys have more room to grow. I still like him and he is already a great player and will likely step right in and have an impact. I was just voicing a concern.

You're right, we should take a chance on a mystery player who can develop. Who knows, they could be anything, they might even develop into a Zadina.

 

[The Great Weal]

I think I finally made up my mind and I'll take Dobson.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I think I finally made up my mind and I'll take Dobson.

I ain't hatin'.

 

[Mrb1p]

I think I finally made up my mind and I'll take Dobson.

Dobson at 3? Come on. 3 is for game breakers. Dobson reeks of Lindholm.

 

[The Great Weal]

I ain't hatin'.

My reason is because the dmen in the top 10 are very good, and I'm not a fan of the dmen that will be there for our 2nds. Yeah, it sucks that he isn't a center or a LHD, but he will be vital once Weber and Petry slow down considerable while Dobson is entering his prime. A guy like Zadina is a pretty good bet to be a top 6 forward, and probably a solid 1st line forward. Meanwhile, I am very confident is saying that Dobson is a good bet to be a top 4 dman who can probably be a #1 dman down the road. Now I do question how much of his offense will translate in the NHL, but a big 2 way dman that can play 25 min+ in every single situation is what every team wants. I love Hughes and Boqvist, but they do have their risks with them, especially because they are on the smaller side. Not saying that it's guaranteed that they won't reach their potential, far from it. But Dobson does have a higher floor than them. If they all end up being #1 dmen, Dobson may not put up the same numbers, but he will make up for that by playing a much more complete game.

 

[The Great Weal]

Dobson at 3? Come on. 3 is for game breakers. Dobson reeks of Lindholm.

Yes. High floor and high ceiling, will control the game every time he is on the ice and can play in every situation. I've already said it numerous times, any of Zadina, Wahlstrom, Boqvist, Hughes, Kotkaniemi or Dobson works for me at 3, which is why if I were Bergevin, I would be doing everything to trade down to 8 or 9.

 

[habsterr]

While player development isn't linear and varies; but at the end of the day the best player today is usually the best player 5 years from now. Would you take Larsson over Huberdeau?

 

[WinterLion]

You're right, we should take a chance on a mystery player who can develop. Who knows, they could be anything, they might even develop into a Zadina.

Hey dude, I'm just giving my opinion. No need to get sarcastic. You are allowed to disagree. Also it's not a mystery player. There are a bunch of excellent options.

 

[WinterLion]

While I agree that he may be a little more physically developed, he only turns 19 in November. Kotkaniemi is one of the younger kids in the draft and Zadina is only ~9 months older.

Granted, I understand there can be big differences. My son is 9 months younger than my nephew, but they LOOK like 2-3 years apart. However, my wife is around 5' (I'm 5'10) and my sister is 5'7 and bro-in-law is 6'1. Doesn't help the tallest male among my wife's side of the family (paternal and maternal) is 5'8.

I mean, sure, maybe Zadina's physical development ceiling is now lower than others due to age differences, but I think ultimately his development relative to his peers will be determined more by genetics. Hughes for example I think has room to develop physically as well, but he'll never be 6'1, 215lbs.

It's just a concern I have... and I thought I would mention it. It's not just size either. I'm also thinking about development path and the fact that Zadina seems like such a polished stone already. It's not necessarily a bad thing, but my point was that it kinda reminds me how I felt about Yakupov.

 

[WinterLion]

While player development isn't linear and varies; but at the end of the day the best player today is usually the best player 5 years from now. Would you take Larsson over Huberdeau?

There are also plenty of examples to the contrary. Oliver Ekman Larsson, Blake Wheeler, Mark Schiefele etc...

 

[Mrb1p]

Yes. High floor and high ceiling, will control the game every time he is on the ice and can play in every situation. I've already said it numerous times, any of Zadina, Wahlstrom, Boqvist, Hughes, Kotkaniemi or Dobson works for me at 3, which is why if I were Bergevin, I would be doing everything to trade down to 8 or 9.

I have no doubt Dobson will tilt the ice, hes going to be an absolute advanced stats darling, but hes not a game breaker, most likely never will be. Its in you or its not and while all the tools seems to be there hes just not doing it.

 

[Runner77]

... which is why if I were Bergevin, I would be doing everything to trade down to 8 or 9.

I love you man but repeating this ad nauseam is not going to change the fact that you're expecting this GM to get a clue. He hasn't in 6 off seasons, how is he suddenly going to do that now, esp. being counseled by the same incompetent staff?

I too like a proactive GM rather than a reactive one -- however, with this GM, you trade down and all you risk doing is putting Tkachuk squarely in his wheelhouse. Take the safe bet at 3rd OA and project more creative moves when the next GM comes in, is what I would humbly suggest.