2018 NHL Entry Draft Thread (Less then 24 Hours Edition)

[WeThreeKings]

How much stock do you put in the Hockey News draft preview? They are very high on Tkachuk, have him ranked 3rd and also an article by Ken Campbell stating if he slides past 3 teams will regret it. Good read.

I wouldn't wipe my ass with it, tbh

 

[Andrei79]

It’s true, it rarely does happen. I don’t think skinny legs means Kotkaniemi will improve his speed. I think it means he can gain muscle there and be impossible to knock off the puck.

A good example of it happening would be Kotkaniemi himself. He's improved significantly from the last U18 to this one.

It's actually become fairly common. John Tavares is a fairly good example of a Vilardi type skater becoming a competent one. Koktaniemi already has good top speed and agility. He still has gains to make in technique and strength.

 

[WeThreeKings]

You can become a poor skater into an okay one.. or a poor shooter into an average one.. but elite abilities are already seen by this age, I haven't seen a bad skater become a top end one and I haven't seen a bad scorer become a good scorer.. at most you see a guy with a bunch of tools and no tool box find a way to figure it out later on or simply that the pro level game suits players better than the junior game.

The obvious exceptions are those who have a huge growth spurt or some type of anomaly like that, but that's a rare case.

 

[Mrb1p]

You can become a poor skater into an okay one.. or a poor shooter into an average one.. but elite abilities are already seen by this age, I haven't seen a bad skater become a top end one and I haven't seen a bad scorer become a good scorer.. at most you see a guy with a bunch of tools and no tool box find a way to figure it out later on or simply that the pro level game suits players better than the junior game.

The obvious exceptions are those who have a huge growth spurt or some type of anomaly like that, but that's a rare case.

JK aint a bad skater, hes mediocre at worse.

 

[NotProkofievian]

You can become a poor skater into an okay one.. or a poor shooter into an average one.. but elite abilities are already seen by this age, I haven't seen a bad skater become a top end one and I haven't seen a bad scorer become a good scorer.. at most you see a guy with a bunch of tools and no tool box find a way to figure it out later on or simply that the pro level game suits players better than the junior game.

The obvious exceptions are those who have a huge growth spurt or some type of anomaly like that, but that's a rare case.

A good counter example would be Mikko Rantanen actually. Before his draft season, his skating was terrible by all accounts. You can see during his draft season, though, that it improved markedly. However, Mikko is almost a year older than Jesperi.

Players get better at everything naturally as they get older, so, Jesperi will be a faster player in a year's time. What we're talking about is moving between quantiles within an age cohort, which will naturally be more difficult, and thus you'll find fewer examples of it. But in the end, these are just skills and humans can learn them until a fairly advanced age. Way past the age of 17 anyways. If that weren't true, drafting would be shooting fish in a barrel.

 

[WeThreeKings]

A good counter example would be Mikko Rantanen actually. Before his draft season, his skating was terrible by all accounts. You can see during his draft season, though, that it improved markedly. However, Mikko is almost a year older than Jesperi.

Players get better at everything naturally as they get older, so, Jesperi will be a faster player in a year's time. What we're talking about is moving between quantiles within an age cohort, which will naturally be more difficult, and thus you'll find fewer examples of it. But in the end, these are just skills and humans can learn them until a fairly advanced age. Way past the age of 17 anyways. If that weren't true, drafting would be shooting fish in a barrel.

My point is that.. we can hope that Kotkaniemi becomes a better skater and naturally, he should, by getting stronger and seeking out professional advice.. but we can never hope that Kotkaniemi becomes a great skater. All of the best skaters in the league were identified as some of the best skaters in their draft year, I'm not saying things can't improve.. I'm just saying I haven't really seen a case where a prospect was mediocre-average-to bad in a skill and eventually become one of the top players in the league at that skill.

 

[NotProkofievian]

My point is that.. we can hope that Kotkaniemi becomes a better skater and naturally, he should, by getting stronger and seeking out professional advice.. but we can never hope that Kotkaniemi becomes a great skater. All of the best skaters in the league were identified as some of the best skaters in their draft year, I'm not saying things can't improve.. I'm just saying I haven't really seen a case where a prospect was mediocre-average-to bad in a skill and eventually become one of the top players in the league at that skill.

I don't think the chance that you can take a bad player in any aspect and make them into one of the very best in the world in that aspect is measurably worse than taking a random player: it's just a rare thing to start with. This seems like a bit of a texas sharpshooter. You can just redefine what you mean by great until all you're left with are not just the prodigies, but the prodigies who didn't wash out.

Point being that a Rantanen level skating stride is probably with in the realm of possibility. If you say that's not ''great'' then fine, I really couldn't care any less, we got what we needed out of Jesperi in that case.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don't think the chance that you can take a bad player in any aspect and make them into one of the very best in the world in that aspect is measurably worse than taking a random player: it's just a rare thing to start with. This seems like a bit of a texas sharpshooter. You can just redefine what you mean by great until all you're left with are not just the prodigies, but the prodigies who didn't wash out.

Point being that a Rantanen level skating stride is probably with in the realm of possibility. If you say that's not ''great'' then fine, I really couldn't care any less, we got what we needed out of Jesperi in that case.

I'm more than fine with taking him.. even if Jesperi tops out at average skater vs. above average.. if I see skating concerns, I need to see smarts. Jesperi has smarts.

If Kupari didn't have great wheels, he'd be a no draft for me.. because if you don't think the game well and you can't get to the game, well you're not gonna play a big part in it.

 

[Mrb1p]

Skatings is overrated when theres concern about a guy like Kotkaniemi. The difference between average skaters like Kotkaniemi and great skaters like McDavid is close to nothing in a game scenario.

 

[Fozz]

Yeah, you're right, there's no causal link between repeated knee injuries and poor skating ability. Super silly.

Repeated knee injuries and poor skating ability = Pass at #3 overall.

You guys do understand that those are major red flags to start with, right?

 

[boss10]

I wouldn't wipe my ass with it, tbh

Perfect...I am on the Tkachuk bandwagon now!

 

[Fozz]

I think it's a lot more likely that someone who is bad at skating because of missed time due to injury suddeny becomes a much better skater when they're healthy. You know, like we've observed already this year with Kotkaniemi.

...well, at least those who have actually watched Kotkaniemi. You know, that's the great thing about watching a prospect multiple times (or at all): you can notice changes and progression in a prospect's development.

You're assuming that he comes back 100% healty from those injuries and that's almost never the case. Injuries usually limits someone's ability to perform after said injury. That's just the nature of things.

Skatings is overrated when theres concern about a guy like Kotkaniemi. The difference between average skaters like Kotkaniemi and great skaters like McDavid is close to nothing in a game scenario.

That comment forces me to take everything you ever said and will ever say with massive skepticism.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Repeated knee injuries and poor skating ability = Pass at #3 overall.

You guys do understand that those are major red flags to start with, right?

He's been healthy for the last year and a half. He just missed time. He has poor skating ability because of his knee injuries, which no longer seem to be a problem. You're double charging on this point, and it's causing you to make a mistake.

 

[rambo97]

I'm an Oiler fan but I'll chime in here for a quick note. Draisaitl was a poor skater when we drafted him. He has actually become a very good (probably even a strong) skater now. When he was drafted his top speed was good but his acceleration and first step were bad. The Oiler scouts and our GM at the time (MacT) said that his issue was correctable as his mechanics were fine (or they said his mechanics needed small tweak or something...can't remember exactly).

His 1st year after the draft he played around 40 games with the big club but was eventually sent back to the WHL. A lot of us on the Oiler board after watching him thought he was going to be a bust because of his skating. He looked slow out there and just glided a lot.

He spent the summer after his WHL season concluded in Edmonton and squatted (according to him) every day or every other day. When he started his 2nd season he was a completely different player. His speed had improved dramatically. I remember him looking faster than Hall at times that season.

I don't know if Kotkaniemi's mechanics are fine or not. If his mechanic's are fine then like Drai he can definitely improve his speed. He sounds a lot like Drai was when we drafted him. I've read on your boards that his top speed seems fine but his first step is horrid. That sounds almost like a carbon copy of Drai when we drafted him. So thought I'd share what we saw with Drai. Not saying Kotkaniemi will have the same outcome but just saying it is possible.

 

[Runner77]

How much stock do you put in the Hockey News draft preview? They are very high on Tkachuk, have him ranked 3rd and also an article by Ken Campbell stating if he slides past 3 teams will regret it. Good read.

I wouldn't wipe my ass with it, tbh

Perfect...I am on the Tkachuk bandwagon now!

Now available in a wipable format!

 

[NotProkofievian]

Your mommy musta been an actress, because you really do believe you're special don't you.

Was this supposed to make sense?

If actually watching prospects - instead of lying about it on the internet like you do - makes me special then so be it.

And you're the guy who keeps on bringing up Poehling for some reason...

Just to give you some perspective on your skating theory for Kotkaniemi...

Imagine the same evidence was brought forth for a prospect you didn't like. Like let's say we were debating Tkachuk skating and I posted a video of him in skinny jeans where his legs looked thin. Would you not find that ridiculous?

Nope. If you said that Brady's bad skating (and it isn't great, btw) was because he didn't have very strong legs, and provided visual evidence of it then I would accept it. That's something easy to fix, and if you gave a good reason for why he hadn't fixed it yet (such as injury) then it makes the argument more compelling.

 

[Habs Icing]

I wouldn't wipe my ass with it, tbh

I wouldn't either. The newsprint ink can't be all that good for your skin down there.

 

[Mrb1p]

I'm an Oiler fan but I'll chime in here for a quick note. Draisaitl was a poor skater when we drafted him. He has actually become a very good (probably even a strong) skater now. When he was drafted his top speed was good but his acceleration and first step were bad. The Oiler scouts and our GM at the time (MacT) said that his issue was correctable as his mechanics were fine (or they said his mechanics needed small tweak or something...can't remember exactly).

His 1st year after the draft he played around 40 games with the big club but was eventually sent back to the WHL. A lot of us on the Oiler board after watching him thought he was going to be a bust because of his skating. He looked slow out there and just glided a lot.

He spent the summer after his WHL season concluded in Edmonton and squatted (according to him) every day or every other day. When he started his 2nd season he was a completely different player. His speed had improved dramatically. I remember him looking faster than Hall at times that season.

I don't know if Kotkaniemi's mechanics are fine or not. If his mechanic's are fine then like Drai he can definitely improve his speed. He sounds a lot like Drai was when we drafted him. I've read on your boards that his top speed seems fine but his first step is horrid. That sounds almost like a carbon copy of Drai when we drafted him. So thought I'd share what we saw with Drai. Not saying Kotkaniemi will have the same outcome but just saying it is possible.

Kotkaniemi is actually A LOT like Draisaitl over in his package, and thats why I love him so much. He has probably all similar tools to Drai, he's a fantastic prospect.

 

[Mrb1p]

You're assuming that he comes back 100% healty from those injuries and that's almost never the case. Injuries usually limits someone's ability to perform after said injury. That's just the nature of things.



That comment forces me to take everything you ever said and will ever say with massive skepticism.

Hey that was a pretty good take you brought to the subject, thanks!

 

[Habs Halifax]

Drafting Kotkaniemi with the 3rd pick would be a bold move. I rather take Zadina and work a trade to get Kotkaniemi from 8-12 range. Oilers, Blackhawks, Islanders. I just don't see any team in the top 7 taking Kotkaniemi but I could be wrong. Players with skating concerns (or average skating at best lets say) slip outside of the top 10 typically. There is just way too much talent to make a gamble move within that top 7.

Do what it takes to get Kotkaniemi in a trade and use Patch, Lindgren, and another piece if you have to.

My plan would be Zadina, Kotkaniemi and then another prospect at Center and LD. 4 major pieces with upside is the target. Forget about the rest as we already have a cluster of grade B prospects. Do what it takes.

- Zadina & Kotkaniemi.

- Dellandrea, O'Brian, or Wise

- Tychonick, Alexeyev, or Sandin

 

[Fozz]

He's been healthy for the last year and a half. He just missed time. He has poor skating ability because of his knee injuries, which no longer seem to be a problem. You're double charging on this point, and it's causing you to make a mistake.

That might be the case but the way the game is evolving, using high draft picks on players with skating concerns caused by past injuries is also a cause for concern and can lead to making major mistakes. Don't get me wrong, I do like Kotkaniemi. I just think there are better options at 3. If they really want him, they should trade down and pick him at 6 or 7, while adding an asset.

 

[Andrei79]

I'm an Oiler fan but I'll chime in here for a quick note. Draisaitl was a poor skater when we drafted him. He has actually become a very good (probably even a strong) skater now. When he was drafted his top speed was good but his acceleration and first step were bad. The Oiler scouts and our GM at the time (MacT) said that his issue was correctable as his mechanics were fine (or they said his mechanics needed small tweak or something...can't remember exactly).

His 1st year after the draft he played around 40 games with the big club but was eventually sent back to the WHL. A lot of us on the Oiler board after watching him thought he was going to be a bust because of his skating. He looked slow out there and just glided a lot.

He spent the summer after his WHL season concluded in Edmonton and squatted (according to him) every day or every other day. When he started his 2nd season he was a completely different player. His speed had improved dramatically. I remember him looking faster than Hall at times that season.

I don't know if Kotkaniemi's mechanics are fine or not. If his mechanic's are fine then like Drai he can definitely improve his speed. He sounds a lot like Drai was when we drafted him. I've read on your boards that his top speed seems fine but his first step is horrid. That sounds almost like a carbon copy of Drai when we drafted him. So thought I'd share what we saw with Drai. Not saying Kotkaniemi will have the same outcome but just saying it is possible.

This is actually a great example and one of those players I was alluding to. The number of quality of power skating coaches and trainers has improved at such significant level that we're regularly seeing players like Rantanen and Draisaitl improve at a point where they become fairly competent.

I mean, even players you'd think are already close to their peak potential like Barzal do it. Without actually having the hard data, my impression is that its become a common occurence. The old adage of "you have or you don't" seems outdated.

At some point, with the number of competent stickhandling coaches coming up, we'll see the same thing happen with puck skills.

 

[Andrei79]

Hey that was a pretty good take you brought to the subject, thanks!

I have to admit I'm lost as to what you meant with that comment, too.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Was Tkachuk injured for a major part of his developement ?

He could have been? Not like all of this information is just fed to the public on a silver platter.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

This is actually a great example and one of those players I was alluding to. The number of quality of power skating coaches and trainers has improved at such significant level that we're regularly seeing players like Rantanen and Draisaitl improve at a point where they become fairly competent.

I mean, even players you'd think are already close to their peak potential like Barzal do it. Without actually having the hard data, my impression is that its become a common occurence. The old adage of "you have or you don't" seems outdated.

At some point, with the number of competent stickhandling coaches coming up, we'll see the same thing happen with puck skills.

I'm still waiting for Michael McCarron to be a great skater for us.