2018 NHL Entry Draft Thread (Less then 24 Hours Edition)

[G0bias]

He's got dat dere sisu.

 

[Andrei79]

So, here's why I think Jesperi Kotkaniemi sucks at skating. Or, more specifically, why does he suck in the way he does at skating: out of the gates



Just look at his legs in this video. This is a strength issue that both has an explicit cause, and is easily fixed. Jesperi Kotkaniemi missed time in multiple seasons, including most of an off-season during the summer of 2016 to knee injuries. That means no squats. That means no power skating.

Along the way here's what he's accomplished: he was the 6th best 15 year old ever to play in Finnish Jr. A, after slaughtering Finnish Jr B. Now, because of his age, keep in mind, this was 2 years ago. 2 years ago, he was 15 for the entire season, contributing in a U20 league, keeping pace with one Sasha Barkov's 15 year old season. After missing an off-season and the lion's share of his D-1 season to surgery, he puts up 15 points in 17 Jr. A games, before producing 6 pts in 7 U18 games, outproducing our very own Ryan Poehling (who is 1 year and 7 months older than Jesperi) in the process. This year he was completely healthy, and as we saw he produced an all-time top 7 U18 Liiga season, put up 9 pts in 7 U18 games as the gold medal winning team's lead pivot, and made substantial progress through the entire year.

I'll say it now: Jesperi Kotkaniemi is a wunderkind who's being undervalued because of an injury plagued development. We won the right to select 3rd and the 3rd best prospect available in this draft is Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

Excellent take there.

Just goes to show you how much upside there is with him.

People shouldn't close off any options at 3rd, because Zadina isn't in a class of his own, good as he is.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Its crazy cause Kotkaniemi is literally the type of player that guys like Jaffy, DGS, etc love. Hes a heart and soul type of kid, like karakter and attitude thing. Hes a true finn.

In reality I do really like Kotkaniemi. More than anything I'm against the idea of reaching for a center over other players more highly graded on our board. But if he's the top guy, take him.

As for this skinny leg theory, I'm not sure it works like that. I remember with Galchenyuk there were questions around his skating, especially coming off the knee injury, and his performance peak output on the bike at the combine and then videos of him leg pressing 1000 pounds were supposed to be proof that he could be tremendous as a skater. And then you look at Conor McDavid, probably the best skater in the league, and he looks like he can barely squat the bar.

I think more than anything skating is about a certain type of athleticism that you either have or you don't. Projecting improved skating based on videos where the guy looks to have bean poles is one of the sillier things I've read on this board.

 

[jaffy27]

In reality I do really like Kotkaniemi. More than anything I'm against the idea of reaching for a center over other players more highly graded on our board. But if he's the top guy, take him.

As for this skinny leg theory, I'm not sure it works like that. I remember with Galchenyuk there were questions around his skating, especially coming off the knee injury, and his performance peak output on the bike at the combine and then videos of him leg pressing 1000 pounds were supposed to be proof that he could be tremendous as a skater. And then you look at Conor McDavid, probably the best skater in the league, and he looks like he can barely squat the bar.

I think more than anything skating is about a certain type of athleticism that you either have or you don't. Projecting improved skating based on videos where the guy looks to have bean poles is one of the sillier things I've read on this board.

Skinniest legs in the league has to be Wayne Simmons.....Benoit Pouliot with the honourable mention

 

[NotProkofievian]

In reality I do really like Kotkaniemi. More than anything I'm against the idea of reaching for a center over other players more highly graded on our board. But if he's the top guy, take him.

As for this skinny leg theory, I'm not sure it works like that. I remember with Galchenyuk there were questions around his skating, especially coming off the knee injury, and his performance peak output on the bike at the combine and then videos of him leg pressing 1000 pounds were supposed to be proof that he could be tremendous as a skater. And then you look at Conor McDavid, probably the best skater in the league, and he looks like he can barely squat the bar.

I think more than anything skating is about a certain type of athleticism that you either have or you don't. Projecting improved skating based on videos where the guy looks to have bean poles is one of the sillier things I've read on this board.

Yeah, you're right, there's no causal link between repeated knee injuries and poor skating ability. Super silly.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Wahlstrom flips from Harvard to Boston College

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Yeah, you're right, there's no causal link between repeated knee injuries and poor skating ability. Super silly.

The silly part is viewing that as some sort of positive...

 

[Mrb1p]

The silly part is viewing that as some sort of positive...

Its a positive because stunting developement means it usually isn't close to the ceiling of said ability

 

[NotProkofievian]

The silly part is viewing that as some sort of positive...

It means that he just needs to make up for lost time. It means that what we're seeing is very likely not fully indicative of his true potential.

You know, like how you went on and on and on about how Poehling was really a hidden offensive gem, but he was faced with the impossible task of playing against the manly men of the NCAA?

Poehling was the only 17 year old skater in the NCAA last year. Going from playing high school hockey to the NCAA is a big jump that requires an adjustment period. The fact he's already had that period is what puts him ahead of the curve.
I expect him to be over a PPG next year as well as be a standout for team USA at the WJC.
This time next year we will be discussing whether Poehling is ready to make the jump.
Quote for posterity if you wish.


Part of the reason I really liked Poehling was that I knew he had a good chance to break out heading into his second year in college. A big part of drafting is predicting their post draft development, and I thought he was in great position to take a big step in his post draft year.

Only, in Jesperi's case, he was actually really good while playing against men, and way better at the U18s. Lol.

 

[G0bias]

While part of Jesperi's skating limitations may be due to lack of strength, there's no doubt his technique could use some work. Is it incorrigible? No, I don't think so.
Just having him straighten out his posture a little would likely make a difference in his stride. I doubt he'll ever not skate hunched over but doesn't mean it can't be improved.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

You guys probably know this, but SeerVideo, bigwhite (might be numbers after it) and there's another One, but I'm not sure of the full name and if he (or she) still makes prospect videos. Dumbassshello or something like that.

SeerVideo also makes videos on leaf prospects, but he makes them on what I believe are obscure players compared to traditional ones (high end players)

 

[Andrei79]

I wonder if someone's compiled which players improved their skating post-draft and by how much in recent years.

My own impression is that it seems prospects have never improved their skating as much as we've seen lately. I guess I'm not too worried about it if he makes strength and technique a priority.

Even with those toothpick legs and a deficient stride, Kotkaniemi's still a competent enough skater. His top speed is actually respectable and he's got good enough edges that he's a threat with his stickhandling.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

It means that he just needs to make up for lost time. It means that what we're seeing is very likely not fully indicative of his true potential.

You know, like how you went on and on and on about how Poehling was really a hidden offensive gem, but he was faced with the impossible task of playing against the manly men of the NCAA?



Only, in Jesperi's case, he was actually really good while playing against men, and way better at the U18s. Lol.

So you're learning from the mistakes you made in your Poehling evaluation. Kudos.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I wonder if someone's compiled which players improved their skating post-draft and by how much in recent years.

My own impression is that it seems prospects have never improved their skating as much as we've seen lately. I guess I'm not too worried about it if he makes strength and technique a priority.

Even with those toothpick legs and a deficient stride, Kotkaniemi's still a competent enough skater. His top speed is actually respectable and he's got good enough edges that he's a threat with his stickhandling.

I really do think skating is mainly a specific type of athleticism that you either have or you don't, and I don't think it's likely that Kotkaniemi just suddenly becomes some great skater.

Right now I think his skating is adequete enough, I don't view it as a fatal flaw. By I do think it is what is stopping him from being a top flight prospect.

 

[Andrei79]

I really do think skating is mainly a specific type of athleticism that you either have or you don't, and I don't think it's likely that Kotkaniemi just suddenly becomes some great skater.

Right now I think his skating is adequete enough, I don't view it as a fatal flaw. By I do think it is what is stopping him from being a top flight prospect.

Who says anything about being a great skater ? How about a good one.

Skating is largely an acquired skill through proper coaching and deliberate practice in any case. If it was an all or nothing skill, then you wouldn't see players who figure skated basically all be excellent skaters.

I'm curious to know who you think are the top flight prospects in this draft though.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Who says anything about being a great skater ? How about a good one.

Skating is largely an acquired skill through proper coaching and deliberate practice in any case. If it was an all or nothing skill, then you wouldn't see players who figure skated basically all be excellent skaters.

I'm curious to know who you think are the top flight prospects in this draft though.

Technique can definitely get you to a decent enough level, but are we saying Kotkaniemi has bad skating technique? To me he just looks like he's simply not some special skating athlete. If you draft him at 3, you have to be fine with where his current skating is.

After Dahlin and Svechnikov, the elite guys in this draft for me are Zadina and Hughes.

 

[S Bah]

Few are the purely fluid skaters that seem to be gliding, the Rocket's, Coffey, Gartner to name a few, McDavid is a phenomenal skater. Kotkaneimi is above average despite looking awkward, with his work ethic that won't hold him back in the NHL. Watching Dobson playing in the game again, he's going to be a special Dman for the Habs IMHO!!!... At 6'3" & 180lbs. he's only going to get better, really stands out Hamilton scores 1st. Dobson on the ice smacked in the face with a stick, Hamilton scored. That shouldn't have counted. Imagine Weber tutoring our young defensive crew with Dobson being one of the Big Three again for the Habs.

 

[Jabba11]

Honestly, top 3 picks for me at 3rd overall:

Filip Zadina
Brady Tkachuk
Noah Dobson

Then Quinn Hughes.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Honestly, top 3 picks for me at 3rd overall:

Filip Zadina
Brady Tkachuk
Noah Dobson

Then Quinn Hughes.

After Dahlin and Svechnikov those are my next 4 though Zadina and Hughes are just a cut above for me.

 

[NotProkofievian]

So you're learning from the mistakes you made in your Poehling evaluation. Kudos.

Lol nah, I was pretty on the money. You're the one spiking the ball at the 50 despite being wrong with every single prediction regarding Poehling this year.

I really do think skating is mainly a specific type of athleticism that you either have or you don't, and I don't think it's likely that Kotkaniemi just suddenly becomes some great skater.

Right now I think his skating is adequete enough, I don't view it as a fatal flaw. By I do think it is what is stopping him from being a top flight prospect.

I think it's a lot more likely that someone who is bad at skating because of missed time due to injury suddeny becomes a much better skater when they're healthy. You know, like we've observed already this year with Kotkaniemi.

...well, at least those who have actually watched Kotkaniemi. You know, that's the great thing about watching a prospect multiple times (or at all): you can notice changes and progression in a prospect's development.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Honestly, top 3 picks for me at 3rd overall:

Filip Zadina
Brady Tkachuk
Noah Dobson

Then Quinn Hughes.

Zadina
Hughes
Kotkaniemi
Boqvist/Dobson

for me

 

[boss10]

How much stock do you put in the Hockey News draft preview? They are very high on Tkachuk, have him ranked 3rd and also an article by Ken Campbell stating if he slides past 3 teams will regret it. Good read.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

Wahlstrom flips from Harvard to Boston College

Hard to argue against choosing BC, it's an elite program. They get several freshmen every year so getting minutes can be problematic but he'll come in with a high profile so he should get his share. That said, Harvard has gotten a lot better as a program in recent years, going there wouldn't have been the end of the world in my book. The ECAC gets a bit of an unfair rep, even with the whole playing less games thing.

 

[le_sean]

I wonder if someone's compiled which players improved their skating post-draft and by how much in recent years.

My own impression is that it seems prospects have never improved their skating as much as we've seen lately. I guess I'm not too worried about it if he makes strength and technique a priority.

Even with those toothpick legs and a deficient stride, Kotkaniemi's still a competent enough skater. His top speed is actually respectable and he's got good enough edges that he's a threat with his stickhandling.

It’s true, it rarely does happen. I don’t think skinny legs means Kotkaniemi will improve his speed. I think it means he can gain muscle there and be impossible to knock off the puck.

 

[NotProkofievian]

It’s true, it rarely does happen. I don’t think skinny legs means Kotkaniemi will improve his speed. I think it means he can gain muscle there and be impossible to knock off the puck.

I think @Andrei79 was saying that we've never seen skating improve as it is improving currently. The lazy, and frankly stupid and anachronistic idea that you can't teach a prospect anything useful (I've seen it said about skating, shooting, stick handling, you name it) is starting to crumble.

As for Kotkaniemi's skating, he doesn't need top speed, he needs acceleration. He just has such a weak and slow push that he looks like his feet are stuck in mud sometimes. That certainly will improve as his legs get stronger. Technically I think he just needs to be a little more upright, and get a fuller extension, but otherwise it's fine.