Toggle sidebar

Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft / Pick #9 - Vitali Kravtsov (RW) - Part III

  • Xenforo Cloud has upgraded us to version 2.3.6. Please report any issues you experience.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Go Away Staal said:
For those who have gotten to watch him regularly...

Has his play really picked up? or are the chances hes been generating finally going in? Because it seemed like he was good for 3 or 4 glorious chances per a game early on that didn't go in for one reason or another.
Click to expand...

Just to build on what @Amazing Kreiderman noted, I think it's a combination of things.

The rate of scoring chances he generates that are being converted into goals is definitely higher. Primarily as a result of Glinkin playing better than the total crap he had been early on. Also, Kravtsov is getting more PP time because he earned it but also as a result of all the injuries to non-Russian first-liners that were getting most of PP time before.

However, it's clear that Kravtsov made another significant developmental leap recently - second after the draft as his play was already better in the beginning of the year compared to last season. He's clearly comfortable to drive the play when he's on the ice, not being a passenger or deferring to his older teammates. He wants the puck, he knows where to go to get it and what to do with it once he has it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Go Away Staal
Machinehead said:
This team could be loaded if they get a 1C

Kreider-Elite Guy-Kravtsov
High-end Winger-Zibanejad-Chytil
Andersson-Howden-Buchnevich
Gettinger-Some Guy-Fast

Miller-Keane
Hajek-ADA
Some Prospect (Lindgren/Rykov?)-Lundkvist

We've got 4 years to get that 1C before the defense is ready and Kreider/Zib start turning brown. Get her done, Gorts!
Click to expand...

This makes me excited.

That forward core, assuming a decent long-term health of Kreider/Zibby looks really good, and dare I say, even realistic. Kravtsov is dominating men right now, and nobody else on that forward list (other than the two TBD spots) need to make some huge leap to fit where they're slotted.

By nature, I'm always less sure when it comes to evaluating defensive prospects. I've (I suppose we've) been burned my too many defensive prospects in future line combos over the years to say with even a modicum of confidence what it's going to look like. I am cautiously (externally, anyway) optimistic about Miller and Keane. It's just harder to project when I don't think there's a single player on our current defense that I'm confident about come 2020/2021. I think ADA is the best of the bunch, but I'm nervous he'll be one of those guys that puts the "consistency" (defined by the coaching staff anyway) together somewhere else. Skjei might be here too, but I'd deal him in a f***ing heartbeat if it meant getting someone with potentially elite talent. Another RD with top-end potential would be great to pair with Lundkvist, Keane, and ADA. Please, for the love of god, try Zucc and/or Hayes for like a 1st+Fox or something. If it means Fox coming back the other way, I'd be glad to take a 2nd instead.

As a cherry on top, we have one of the best goaltending prospects in the world dominating (albeit on a great team) against men for a few years now.

I've been a tank commander since day 1, but this makes me that much more excited about losing. #1C is the hardest spot in hockey to fill (maybe RD has it beat but I digress). This draft has plenty of #1C prospects. We are in a great position. Having a true all-league elite franchise center (Hughes) would be f***ing amazing. Just getting a high-end #1C would mean everything to this franchise.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GlasgowNewYorkRanger
Machinehead said:
This team could be loaded if they get a 1C

Kreider-Elite Guy-Kravtsov
Buchnevich-Zibanejad-Chytil
UFA-Howden-Andersson
Gettinger-Some Guy-Fast

Miller-Keane
Hajek-ADA
Lundkvist-One of the other prospects

We've got 4 years to get that 1C before the defense is ready and Kreider/Zib start turning brown. Get her done, Gorts!
Click to expand...
Are you really Machinehead? It's the first time that I see you optimistic in these boards.:laugh:

I'm more confident in management now that their prospects are making some of the more gloomier posters here believers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: darko, Rongomania and SnowblindNYR
Kovalev27 said:
That goal was pure filth. 10 pts in last 11 games. He’s starting to dominate. And u just don’t do that in the khl at that age.
Click to expand...

He's starting to do what Kuznetsov did in D+1 which is pick it up as the season went on.
 
Machinehead said:
This team could be loaded if they get a 1C

Kreider-Elite Guy-Kravtsov
Buchnevich-Zibanejad-Chytil
UFA-Howden-Andersson
Gettinger-Some Guy-Fast

Miller-Keane
Hajek-ADA
Lundkvist-One of the other prospects

We've got 4 years to get that 1C before the defense is ready and Kreider/Zib start turning brown. Get her done, Gorts!
Click to expand...

Some Guy should be the 1c because of his great chemistry with Kreider.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Richard Banger, Machinehead, Hunter Gathers and 1 other person
Without taking the fact that his team isn't scoring any goals at all into account, Kravtsov has now climbed up to 5th in his draft class in terms of NHLe with 0.40 behind Tkachuk, Dahlin, Svechnikov and Kotkaniemi. His NHLe for the past 11 games (10 points) is 0.68 (56 P/82 GP). If he keeps up that pace (10 P/11 GP) to the end of the regular season he will end up with 39 points in 54 games, an NHLe of 0.52 (43 P /82 GP).
 
Blue Blooded said:
Without taking the fact that his team isn't scoring any goals at all into account, Kravtsov has now climbed up to 5th in his draft class in terms of NHLe with 0.40 behind Tkachuk, Dahlin, Svechnikov and Kotkaniemi. His NHLe for the past 11 games (10 points) is 0.68 (56 P/82 GP). If he keeps up that pace (10 P/11 GP) to the end of the regular season he will end up with 39 points in 54 games, an NHLe of 0.52 (43 P /82 GP).
Click to expand...
For reference, the top D+1 NHLe last year were:

1. Elias Pettersson 0.83
2. Nico Hischier 0.61
3. Eeli Tolvanen 0.51
4. Nolan Patrick 0.41
5. Martin Necas 0.37
 
47395440_10157903823877564_731109549536182272_n.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: darko
Blue Blooded said:
Which NHLe is this based on? Very odd numbers considering Gusev is 10th, I'd think he would produce a lot more points in the NHL than anyone else on this list based on his current KHL season.
Click to expand...

It's based on age as well, which is why the younger players usually have a higher expected outcome, with them still developing. Gusev is what he is at the moment
 
Amazing Kreiderman said:
It's based on age as well, which is why the younger players usually have a higher expected outcome, with them still developing. Gusev is what he is at the moment
Click to expand...
So they are trying to project some future peak season rather than what the player likely would do in the NHL the very next year? That introduces too much variance to my liking.

I'd also argue that the likelihood most of those players ever become as good as Gusev is slim.
 
Blue Blooded said:
So they are trying to project some future peak season rather than what the player likely would do in the NHL the very next year? That introduces too much variance to my liking.

I'd also argue that the likelihood most of those players ever become as good as Gusev is slim.
Click to expand...

Not future production, but current production when you include adaptability. A 27-year old player is less likely to adept to the NHL than an 18-year old player
 
Amazing Kreiderman said:
Not future production, but current production when you include adaptability. A 27-year old player is less likely to adept to the NHL than an 18-year old player
Click to expand...
Is the model based on data regression or has a person manually calibrated the coefficients?

Still, Dadonov came over and put up 65 at that age which was decently in line with what Manny's NHLe which doesn't factor in age projected from his final KHL season (76 projected points). Gusev's current NHLe projects him to 79 points over a full NHL season, that adjustment has him down to 46. While he perhaps wouldn't reach 79 I do think it is a more accurate projection than 46.

I'm sticking to Manny's NHLe until these others describe their methodology.
 
Amazing Kreiderman said:
He seems more at ease recently, but yeah. The bounces are going his way. I think he finally got over the hump, but not because of his team. His team's scoring is still low. It all improved when Stoa was moved up and Polyganov was centering the Kravtsov line. Stoa is still snake-bitten. Glinkin and Kravtsov have chemistry

You could see it today again. Glinkin is always looking for Kravtsov, even when there are 3 players blocking the lanes, Glinkin tries to pass to Kravtsov. His teammates are looking for him. That's great
Click to expand...

I don't think this is a bad thing either. Sometimes that is a good indication, not of a player being lucky but a player who is taking the next step. Why does it seem like the good/great players always have bounces go their way? It isn't because they are lucky for 10-15 years.
 
Gardner McKay said:
I don't think this is a bad thing either. Sometimes that is a good indication, not of a player being lucky but a player who is taking the next step. Why does it seem like the good/great players always have bounces go their way? It isn't because they are lucky for 10-15 years.
Click to expand...

Agreed. It's more the shots of his teammates that are going in more regularly now. He's always been more a playmaker than a finisher
 
Something else to consider is that his early season chances weren't being finished or supported as well by his teammates. As some may recall, there were a number of nights he easily could've had more points but his linemates weren't there. There was also at least one waived off goal and few other deductions.

Right now, that's not happening as much.
 
Edge said:
Something else to consider is that his early season chances weren't being finished or supported as well by his teammates. As some may recall, there were a number of nights he easily could've had more points but his linemates weren't there. There was also at least one waived off goal and few other deductions.

Right now, that's not happening as much.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Stoa missed 3 open nets in the first 5 games. Kravtsov did all he could have done there, and an assist was basically a given. Now, with Polyganov centering the line, it seems to click. But the biggest difference is how much his teammates are looking for him. Bobrov mentioned how he's carrying his team, being the bright light on a Traktor team struggling to produce

"On a struggling team, filled with injuries and coaching changes, Vitali has been a bright light. His vision, playmaking ability, and dynamic skill and skating style are on display every game."
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom