GDT: 2018 NHL Draft Lottery - 7:30 PM ET

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We moved down 1 (ONE) spot. It's not the end of the world... I still plan to be happy with whoever is there at 9. Whether we pick them, is another question.
 
I didn’t mock or laugh at anyone in that first post. I criticized, and it’s deserved.

Disappointment requires expectations that, in this case, shouldn’t have existed.

You can hope without expecting anything.
And you can be disappointed without expecting something. Are you not disappointed when the Rangers get eliminated in the playoffs?
 
Oh well. 9 is still an excellent spot to pick.

The only way I move up is if there’s a chance to get into the top 5, and even then, I’d prefer to do it involving existing NHL talent so that we keep at least as many 1st and 2nd rounders as we have now. Hayes + our third 1st rounder to either MTL or CAR (presuming they don’t get #1OA), something like that. This draft is too good/deep to be packaging multiple picks into one.
 
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Of the above players We will be lucky to get Dobson which would be fine with me at this point unless gorton does some magic and trades up for a chance at a bokk or Kravtsov

I expect him to deal up from one those late picks. I also can see him targeting Florida or Dallas as a landing spot for Zuccarello. The moment he was done at the trade deadline, I have said I expect him to be very busy in the days leading up to the draft and during the draft. There will be trades. McKenzie has said he expects Gorton to move quantity for quality.
 
And you can be disappointed without expecting something. Are you not disappointed when the Rangers get eliminated in the playoffs?

Only when I expected them to get farther than they did.

I expected them to beat Ottawa in the second round last year. Disappointed.

I did not expect them to beat the Penguins in 2016. Not disappointed.

I expected them to get to the SCF in 2015. Disappointed.

See how that works?
 
Simple draft pick expected value. 9OA + 2nd rounder > 7 OA.
The problem here is whether those players actually reach the expected value, of course.

Has there been studies on this? Like...draft picks reaching their expected value and what kind of rates we're looking at? Something that shows that moving down is actually the smarter thing to do the majority of the time in the first and second round.

When it's moving down in the fourth and beyond, I don't think that really makes a difference since it's pretty much all a wash down there.
 
Only when I expected them to get farther than they did.

I expected them to beat Ottawa in the second round last year. Disappointed.

I did not expect them to beat the Penguins in 2016. Not disappointed.

I expected them to get to the SCF in 2015. Disappointed.

See how that works?
See all you gotta do is never expect anything, then you're never disappointed.

And then we can make a club for very sad people. I am the founding member. DM to apply.
 
No. I have no doubts.

As other posters have pointed out, they release the video of the lottery after the fact.

What is this "current situation" that Carolina is in that the NHL needs to desperately help them with? What, are they going to draft a goalie in the top-3?

Current situation? Here’s a good post that summarizes my feelings about their current situation.

Go figure. Team hasn’t made the playoffs in s decade. Rumors of relocation. New owner out of left field. Finish 11th and get s top three...

Canes shot at the lottery were less than 50% of ours. And releasing a video of the lottery after the fact, also raises red flags.

Why not just do it live? Like you know, a real lottery?
 
Oh well. 9 is still an excellent spot to pick.

The only way I move up is if there’s a chance to get into the top 5, and even then, I’d prefer to do it involving existing NHL talent so that we keep at least as many 1st and 2nd rounders as we have now. Hayes + our third 1st rounder to either MTL or CAR (presuming they don’t get #1OA), something like that. This draft is too good/deep to be packaging multiple picks into one.
It's "OK" at 9. 8 was really pushing it. Most of the better talent is at 6 and below.
 
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