Prospect Info: 2018/19 Marlies & Prospects Thread Part V

[stickty111]

Except that’s not the case. Since Lilj isn’t producing people are trying to pump his defensive game to make him look better. He’s absolutely not the best defensive defender on that team. It’s shocking to me how you could arrive at that conclusion. They’re basically following a select few Twitter posters’ data to form scouting reports.

He’s improved his game moderately in all areas. He’s a bit stronger, a bit quicker, and a bit better with his risk mitigation in the D zone. Still very much a work in progress and still makes the most mistakes of any top 4 Marlies D man.

Incorrect. Lilly's defensive game has gone a long way. It's not hyping it up just because his offensive game is down. You can see the drastic improvement from last season to this season.
Lilly is better then Sandin defensively. He is also better then Rosen defensively. Borgman and Lilly is no contest. The only one you can say is Loverde yet he makes more mistakes then Lilly.

 

[deletethis]

It's only one play in the Game 2 Game-in-6 so take it for what that's worth but Liljegren got blown past on a play that makes me question this defensive stalwart narrative. He's still super young and mistakes will happen.

Kask made a ton of huge (awkward) saves to win that Game 2. There were a ton of odd man rushes on the game highlights.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Liljegren is dead last in PPG among D from draft class in the AHL - despite some of them being drafted far later than him, some of them having little offensive talent, and some of them not getting PP time. His PPG is behind almost every D on the Marlies despite playing big minutes (Rosen, Sandin, Borgman, Subban, Marincin - and Nielsen and LeBlanc - neither of whom finished the season on the Marlies and the latter spent half the year on the Growlers). His PP time has been reduced because he has always (first year and this year) been mindbogglingly non-productive on the PP. He gets very few shots through. He is easy to read.

That’s not accurate, but more importantly, he was ahead of all of them in PPG except Brannstrom until the game where he was injured in December. He then had 9 straight scoreless games because of his (two) ankle injuries and the resultant time off. You can’t look at his season totals this year without context, including his scoreless streak post injury. Liljegren probably won’t be 100% until next season, but he at least seems to have most of his speed back already.

 

[Cor]

I'd be shocked if Hollowell passes Liljegren.

Lily is going to end up as Josh Morrissey, a two way stud.

Maybe Hollowell passes him offensively, but very unlikely defensively.
Lilly is arguable the Marlies best defensive defenseman.

Unfortunately Liljegren was touted as an offensive guy when he was drafted, so some look at his stats and see failure to develop, when he's actually developed significantly as a player.

People who actually watch him play see how much he's improved defensively in his zone, as well as transitionally, in terms of breaking up zone entries, and his awesome zone exit abilities.

 

[stickty111]

It's only one play in the Game 2 Game-in-6 so take it for what that's worth but Liljegren got blown past on a play that makes me question this defensive stalwart narrative. He's still super young and mistakes will happen.

Kask made a ton of huge (awkward) saves to win that Game 2. There were a ton of odd man rushes on the game highlights.

Who called him a defensive stalwart? Did you just want to take shots?
Lilly is a much better defensive player, and yes mistakes will happen for everybody. It doesn't mean the analysis was wrong.
Hows the Timashov>Bracco narrative working out for you?

Sandin also turned the puck over and it resulted in a breakaway. If we are using your way, clearly he isn't developing as expected.

 

[stickty111]

Unfortunately Liljegren was touted as an offensive guy when he was drafted, so some look at his stats and see failure to develop, when he's actually developed significantly as a player.

People who actually watch him play see how much he's improved defensively in his zone, as well as transitionally, in terms of breaking up zone entries, and his awesome zone exit abilities.

Sadly, when he makes a mistake, people will just focus on that and make "defensive stalwart" sarcastic remarks.

 

[Cor]

Sadly, when he makes a mistake, people will just focus on that and make "defensive stalwart" sarcastic remarks.

Most likely.

 

[Fogelhund]

Unfortunately Liljegren was touted as an offensive guy when he was drafted, so some look at his stats and see failure to develop, when he's actually developed significantly as a player.

People who actually watch him play see how much he's improved defensively in his zone, as well as transitionally, in terms of breaking up zone entries, and his awesome zone exit abilities.

The reality for us, as a franchise is... if Liljegren at his peak, can be near a Stralman for us..... decent defensively, can move the puck in transition, zone exits... that is probably more valuable to us, than the guy he was advertised as a the draft. We've got plenty of offensive guys... a stronger defensive guy... and yes he still makes mistakes, as expected for his age... but if he can become that guy, that is a huge win for us. But, I don't see that strong offensive side.

 

[deletethis]

Who called him a defensive stalwart? Did you just want to take shots?
Lilly is a much better defensive player, and yes mistakes will happen for everybody. It doesn't mean the analysis was wrong.
Hows the Timashov>Bracco narrative working out for you?

Sandin also turned the puck over and it resulted in a breakaway. If we are using your way, clearly he isn't developing as expected.

I guess it's not allowed to contradict your propaganda er... analysis. IMO Sandin's easily the better player, all around. I remember this "defensive player" bait and switch many times before after a player isn't quite the offensive player he was expected to be. Remembering Kenny Ryan, Matt Finn, Stuart Percy, Jessie Blacker... Liljegren is a better prospect than all of those players but it's same type of narrative switcheroo.

Hows the Timashov>Bracco narrative working out for you?

They still have the same amount of NHL games to date. And I bet Timashov plays more NHL games next season than Bracco.

 

[stickty111]

I guess it's not allowed to contradict your propaganda er... analysis. IMO Sandin's easily the better player, all around. I remember this "defensive player" bait and switch many times before after a player isn't quite the offensive player he was expected to be. Remembering Kenny Ryan, Matt Finn, Stuart Percy, Jessie Blacker... Liljegren is a better prospect than all of those players but it's same type of narrative switcheroo.



They still have the same amount of NHL games to date. And I bet Timashov plays more NHL games next season than Bracco.

No you just wanted to take shots.
Timashov has not taken a step forward. Bracco probably plays more NHL games next season.
You were wrong on these players. Bounching around the question just shows your admitting it.

 

[Magic Man]

I guess it's not allowed to contradict your propaganda er... analysis. IMO Sandin's easily the better player, all around. I remember this "defensive player" bait and switch many times before after a player isn't quite the offensive player he was expected to be. Remembering Kenny Ryan, Matt Finn, Stuart Percy, Jessie Blacker... Liljegren is a better prospect than all of those players but it's same type of narrative switcheroo.



They still have the same amount of NHL games to date. And I bet Timashov plays more NHL games next season than Bracco.

Bracco just put up 79 points in 75 games, coming second in the league in scoring in year 2 of his ELC. Timashov is in year 3 and has not broken 50 points in the AHL. Timashov is going to clear waivers next season and Bracco makes the team out of camp with time remaining on his ELC.

 

[stickty111]

Bracco just put up 79 points in 75 games, coming second in the league in scoring in year 2 of his ELC. Timashov is in year 3 and has not broken 50 points in the AHL. Timashov is going to clear waivers next season and Bracco makes the team out of camp with time remaining on his ELC.

Facts.

 

[PanniniClaus]

Facts.

I would agree with this. Bracco will be continuing the pipeline of cheap talent, hopefully after a long playoff run in the AHL. He's next man up.

 

[Kiwi]

The reality for us, as a franchise is... if Liljegren at his peak, can be near a Stralman for us..... decent defensively, can move the puck in transition, zone exits... that is probably more valuable to us, than the guy he was advertised as a the draft. We've got plenty of offensive guys... a stronger defensive guy... and yes he still makes mistakes, as expected for his age... but if he can become that guy, that is a huge win for us. But, I don't see that strong offensive side.

Watching him at the AHL level I think this is a more realistic take of what Liljegren ends up being

I don't think he's going to be a PP QB, I think he ends up as a 2nd pair, strong transitional defender tthat gets maybe 20-30 points a year that can eat a lot of 5v5 and PK minutes

His passing game is good and his skating is OK with good Edgewood but I don't see the offensive vision or decision making for a higher end offensive defenseman

 

[deletethis]

 

[hockeynorth]

Why can't we be happy cause we have all these prospects then pitting them against each other?

 

[Kiwi]

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It's one play in a 60 minute game

This is the definition of cherry picking, if you wanted to you could do something like that for any player

You can make Komorov look like Crosby with tiny select highlights ffs

The kids a good defender and has a strong transitional game, I watch Marlies games and it's reasonably obvious what his strengths are

 

[deletethis]

No you just wanted to take shots.

I see your nasty avatar Mr. Positivity:

"Shots are okay when I'm doing them."

 

[Cor]

For the record, I do like Timashov, and think he has an NHL future in a bottom 6 skill role.

However, comparing him to Bracco is laughable.

Then again, I've been laughing at different prospects voted ahead of Bracco in our prospect rankings since he was drafted. I was laughing at players drafted/ranked ahead of him during his draft/draft year.

 

[FreeBird]

I'd be shocked if Hollowell passes Liljegren.

Lily is going to end up as Josh Morrissey, a two way stud.

Sandin is more likely to be Morrissey type guy.

 

[GoldenGOOSE]

Timashow isn't fast enough to be that small. If we lose the series against Boston, count on Mason Marchment to make the team out of camp. Not a shrimp. We have enough smurfs.

Bracco if he can compete, play defensively etc... can make it. Especially if marner is holding out.

 

[biotk]

How is his production crap?

18 year old season: 2nd highest PPG ever for defensemen in the AHL to play a full season

19 year old season: 16th highest PPG ever for a 19 year old in the AHL to play a full season

Anyone can make this kind of claim when they restrict their pool to the point where someone is say 16th, out of 20th.

You can make this pretty simple - there are 8 D from Liljegren's draft class who played 20 or more games in the AHL this year. Liljegren is last in PPG among them, despite the lies that other posters want to tell. There are 3 other recent high end draft D for the Leafs that they had play on the Marlies on their D+1 or D+2 (Dermott and Nielsen in their D+2 and Sandin in his D+1). Liljegren is behind all 3 in PPG. Kylington was often used as a comparable for Liljegren by his biggest detractors and supporters - including myself - howled in outrage at the insult. Kylington had a higher PPG in his D+2 (and had already played in the NHL).

So PPG for D+2 (plus Sandin in his D+1) among 12 players who should be comparables with Liljegren. If you asked most people before the season where Liljegren would rank among those 12 in PPG this year, most would have said first or second (behind Brannstrom).

The reality for D+2 in the AHL:

Valimaki (16OA 2017) 0.700 PPG (also played NHL games)
Brannstrom (15 OA 2017) 0.640 PPG (also played NHL games)
Sandin (29OA 2018 D+1) 0.636 PPG
Jokijarju (29OA 2017) 0.567 PPG (also played NHL games)
Nielsen (65OA 2015) 0.527 PPG
Vaakanainen (18OA 2017) 0.467 PPG (also played NHL games)
Kylington (60OA 2015) 0.450 PPG (also played NHL games)
Hague (34OA 2017) 0.427 PPG
Foote (14OA 2017) 0.408 PPG
Dermott (34OA 2015) 0.407 PPG
Fleury (87OA 2017) 0.383 PPG
Liljegren (17OA 2017) 0.349 PPG (at the time he was injured he was at 0.421 PPG).

Liljegren was the only one of those players with a year of AHL experience. Unlike several of those players (such as Dermott who got essentially no PP time during his D+2 on the Marlies) Liljegren got a lot of PP time during his D+1 (over players like Rosen) and started out his D+2 getting a decent amount but that PP time shifted to Subban and Sandin because they were far more productive on the PP (Rosen was the #1 PP this year and he made the best of it).

I know it might not look like it because Sandin is blowing everybody in history out of the water right now, but basically everybody ahead of Liljegren at age 19 is a top pair guy in the NHL, at the very least a solid top 4.

Again this is not true. All 7 other D from his draft class playing 20 or more games in the AHL this year were ahead of him in PPG, and at least some of them will not end up top 4, just as Nielsen will probably never play a game and Kylington will be a third pairing at best.

 

[biotk]

I remember this "defensive player" bait and switch many times before after a player isn't quite the offensive player he was expected to be.

Pretty much. But it is still staggering how quickly this bait and switch has become orthodoxy. At training camp half a year ago Sandin was the defensive wizard and Liljegren was the offensive wizard. But the moment Sandin started putting up more points (and soon after, a lot more points) Liljegren's defensive talents (which are not poor, just not great) were elevated leaps and bounds.

 

[stickty111]

View attachment 219275

Cherrypicking to make an argument. Desperate much?
Easy to do that

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Pretty much. But it is still staggering how quickly this bait and switch has become orthodoxy. At training camp half a year ago Sandin was the defensive wizard and Liljegren was the offensive wizard. But the moment Sandin started putting up more points (and soon after, a lot more points) Liljegren's defensive talents (which are not poor, just not great) were elevated leaps and bounds.

to be fair, he is being tasked with focusing on his defensive game at the expense of his offense. We've seen the same with players such as Rielly. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that he can still improve offensively once the reigns are off. I do believe in his offensive skillset, even if the numbers aren't there yet. Being hurt in key developmental years may also have slowed him down a lot, but not stopped him from potentially being a good player one day. I do think he's not close to Sandin as of now, and is falling behind others