2017 Offseason Thread 3.0

[damacles1156]

I will say it again since people seem to not understand.

If you get just 10+ ES goals out of a bottom six player, you have one of the best in the ENTIRE LEAGUE.

Seriously, go look at the stats of actual bottom six players.

 

[Kingsfan1]

This is a myth that has been debunked several times.

Trever Lewis alone was one of the best Bottom six players in the league last year, along with Brown(Production wise at ES).

The Bottom six is a reason the Kings are not picking Top Five in the draft this year.

Agree with your assessment about Lewis and Brown I have grown to love Lewis and he is the perfect bottom 6 player for us , but we would also be that much better if he was on the 4th line.

However , I don't agree that our bottom 6 was one of the best. It's actually the worst , offensive wise. Defensively sure maybe but that's because of Lewis, Brown and to an extent Shore.

 

[damacles1156]

Agree with your assessment about Lewis and Brown I have grown to love Lewis and he is the perfect bottom 6 player for us , but we would also be that much better if he was on the 4th line.

However , I don't agree that our bottom 6 was one of the best. It's actually the worst , offensive wise. Defensively sure maybe but that's because of Lewis, Brown and to an extent Shore.

Again That is a Myth about the offense part.

Seriously look it up.

Racoon and myself have debunked this several times.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

King won't even be in the NHL in the next 2 years. Shows how much the Kings depth sucks.
Clifford,Andreoff gotta go too. I think Blake bringing in Imama might make that a reality

Imama might never be an NHLer, Clifford is a solid one. Shiny new toy syndrome.

This is a myth that has been debunked several times.

Trever Lewis alone was one of the best Bottom six players in the league last year, along with Brown(Production wise at ES).

The Bottom six is a reason the Kings are not picking Top Five in the draft this year.

Exactly. Last season was basically Jeff Carter (3/4 a season), Tanner Pearson, Drew Doughty, and a bunch of nondescript misfits that were roughly interchangeable. And I'm not even going to bother posting the stats again about how our bottom six matched up with the rest of the league.

You go about fixing the top six, and you fix the bottom six by default/trickle down if scoring is what you're looking for.

 

[Kingsfan1]

I will say it again since people seem to not understand.

If you get just 10+ ES goals out of a bottom six player, you have one of the best in the ENTIRE LEAGUE.

Seriously, go look at the stats of actual bottom six players.

Look at Pens or Preds bottom 6 they are deep. And what do they have in common ? They were in the cup finals and one of them is the champion.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Again That is a Myth about the offense part.

Seriously look it up.

Racoon and myself have debunked this several times.

Yep.

To put it shortly--

Only teams who had a better--yes, OFFENSIVELY--bottom six than the Kings were teams who rotated top-liners down through the lineup occasionally enough that you wouldn't know what line they're on. I.e. Kessel, a few Sharks, and so on.

It was only more noticeable because our top six wasn't getting the job done so there was more pressure on our bottom six to produce. They compare favorably across the league.

 

[Kingsfan1]

Again That is a Myth about the offense part.

Seriously look it up.

Racoon and myself have debunked this several times.

I can get behind what Racoon said below , yes fix the top 6 and have the trickle down effect . Players would be slotted where they should be ; basically what I said with Lewis and Shore. But we do need a 3rd line center and Thornton would be great.

Imama might never be an NHLer, Clifford is a solid one. Shiny new toy syndrome.



Exactly. Last season was basically Jeff Carter (3/4 a season), Tanner Pearson, Drew Doughty, and a bunch of nondescript misfits that were roughly interchangeable. And I'm not even going to bother posting the stats again about how our bottom six matched up with the rest of the league.

You go about fixing the top six, and you fix the bottom six by default/trickle down if scoring is what you're looking for.

 

[Stimpythecat]

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/06/03/how-much-is-the-best-fourth-line-in-hockey-worth/

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Look at Pens or Preds bottom 6 they are deep. And what do they have in common ? They were in the cup finals and one of them is the champion.

Pittsburgh's 'regular' bottom 6ers had 11-26 points. Ours had 12-24. Try again?

 

[damacles1156]

Yep.

To put it shortly--

Only teams who had a better--yes, OFFENSIVELY--bottom six than the Kings were teams who rotated top-liners down through the lineup occasionally enough that you wouldn't know what line they're on. I.e. Kessel, a few Sharks, and so on.

It was only more noticeable because our top six wasn't getting the job done so there was more pressure on our bottom six to produce. They compare favorably across the league.

Exactly.

This stupid narrative just won't die. If the Bottom six was terrible like people think it is. The Kings would be picking 1-5 in the draft coming up here.

The bottom six kept this team from total collapse, along with Carter/Pearson.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I can get behind what Racoon said below , yes fix the top 6 and have the trickle down effect . Players would be slotted where they should be ; basically what I said with Lewis and Shore. But we do need a 3rd line center and Thornton would be great.

Yes and I think that's the issue--the top six making the bottom six look 'bad' because the top sixers were actually the ones underproducing.

 

[damacles1156]

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/06/03/how-much-is-the-best-fourth-line-in-hockey-worth/

Nice graph thank you.

Puts it into perspective.

Nick shore last year:

70GP: 6G 11A 17P -2

 

[BigKing]

Preds seemed to have guys like Scissons and Watson step up in the playoffs but I don't believe anyone was looking at the Preds and saying "Wow! Look at that Bottom 6!"

I mean, Dwight King crushed the 2012 WCF and Nolan was awesome during that run as well. Hell, Colin Fraser played well! I don't think anyone was thinking "Kings have such a good Bottom 6" heading into the playoffs.

They can't just waive a wand and have 15 goal scorers manning each wing position on the 3rd line as most teams (Do any?) don't have that either.

This team's biggest problem last season was #11. Love the guy, but it's weak to continually see the Bottom 6 ragged on as if they are supposed to pick up 15 goals and 30 points worth of slack from the $14MM man.

If the Kings top players eating up all of the cap space don't produce to the numbers that got them their contracts, it doesn't matter if I'm the 4th line LW.

 

[damacles1156]

Preds seemed to have guys like Scissons and Watson step up in the playoffs but I don't believe anyone was looking at the Preds and saying "Wow! Look at that Bottom 6!"

I mean, Dwight King crushed the 2012 WCF and Nolan was awesome during that run as well. Hell, Colin Fraser played well! I don't think anyone was thinking "Kings have such a good Bottom 6" heading into the playoffs.

They can't just waive a wand and have 15 goal scorers manning each wing position on the 3rd line as most teams (Do any?) don't have that either.

This team's biggest problem last season was #11. Love the guy, but it's weak to continually see the Bottom 6 ragged on as if they are supposed to pick up 15 goals and 30 points worth of slack from the $14MM man.

If the Kings top players eating up all of the cap space don't produce to the numbers that got them their contracts, it doesn't matter if I'm the 4th line LW.

Put it this way.

If Brown remains most of the season in the bottom six, and scores 15 ES goals. He would most likely be one the best(most expensive too) bottom six winger in the league.

 

[johnjm22]

This is a myth that has been debunked several times.

Trever Lewis alone was one of the best Bottom six players in the league last year, along with Brown(Production wise at ES).

The Bottom six is a reason the Kings are not picking Top Five in the draft this year.

Lewis and Brown weren't really bottom 6 forwards.

Brown had the third most even strength ice time of any forward on the team. Lewis had the fourth most.

Carter, Brown, Lewis, Toffoli, Pearson, Gaborik all got ~13 minutes of even strength ice time per game.

 

[Kingsfan1]

Put it this way.

If Brown remains most of the season in the bottom six, and scores 15 ES goals. He would most likely be the best(most expensive too) bottom six winger in the league.

I agree. I love having Brown , Shore and Lewis on our bottom 6. However I do think we need a 3C. That way everyone would be slotted in their right positions and would make us that much deeper.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Math does not compute...

You think they'll spend up to $6M to re-sign Shore, Andreoff and Gravel, and a backup goalie?

Andreoff should get the league minimum. He's proven nothing since he's been in the NHL. Shore probably gets less than $900K. Gravel will get less than $800K. Say Andreoff signs for $600K, that's $2.3M. They're not going to tie their hands with a backup goalie, so say they spend $1.2M tops for one, that's $4.5M.

The poster I was responding to suggested those signings would give the Kings less than $5M to spend. I'm suggesting they'll have more than that. Spending up to $5M on the aforementioned three plus a backup is quite a generous number to throw out.

 

[damacles1156]

Lewis and Brown weren't really bottom 6 forwards.

Brown had the third most even strength ice time of any forward on the team. Lewis had the fourth most.

Carter, Brown, Lewis, Toffoli, Pearson, Gaborik all got ~13 minutes of even strength ice time per game.

Racoon and I have already addressed that in another thread.

Look at the Graph Stimpy just posted.

 

[johnjm22]

Racoon and I have already addressed that in another thread.

Look at the Graph Stimpy just posted.

Link?

I don't get much out of the graph. It only gives you perspective depending on who you're categorizing as 3rd/4th line. (Maybe this is addressed in the corresponding article but I don't feel like reading it right now)

If Lewis got the same minutes as Shore, he would have put up similar numbers. The only reason he outproduced shore was because he got more minutes and often played with better linemates.

 

[Kings4thecup]

Though an upgrade at 3C would be nice, the priority should be finding a top 6 winger. That's where we can help our scoring the most. That will probably eat up most of the money unless we find a gem. Not sure where, but that's Blake's job.

If you still have room to upgrade that position without weakening another, I say go for it, but it will be tough.

 

[damacles1156]

Link?

I don't get much out of the graph. It only gives you perspective depending on who you're categorizing as 3rd/4th line. (Maybe this is addressed in the corresponding article but I don't feel like reading it right now)

If Lewis got the same minutes as Shore, he would have put up similar numbers. The only reason he outproduced shore was because he got more minutes and often played with better linemates.

Even if you remove Lewis/Brown from the equation.

Leaves you: Dowd/Shore/Clifford/Nolan/Seto, Played close to 50 games or more, vast majority in the bottom six.

They all meet League average production of bottom six players(last season).

Andy was the only guy that didn't, played only 36 games.

Remember Seto/Dowd/Brown was a very good line

 

[johnjm22]

Leaves you: Dowd/Shore/Clifford/Nolan/Seto, Played close to 50 games or more, vast majority in the bottom six.

They all meet League average production of bottom six players(last season).

Andy was the only guy that didn't.

Yeah, I'm not disputing that. I just take issue with calling Brown/Lewis bottom six when they both played about 1200 minutes.

 

[damacles1156]

Yeah, I'm not disputing that. I just take issue with calling Brown/Lewis bottom six when they both played about 1200 minutes.

Brown/Lewis still logged a lot of minutes in the bottom six.

Seto/Dowd/Brown was the third line for a decent portion of last season.

Lewis had a lot of shifts with Shore/Kempe as well.

 

[johnjm22]

Brown/Lewis still logged a lot of minutes in the bottom six.

Seto/Dowd/Brown was the third line for a good portion of last season.

Lewis had a lot of shifts with Shore/Kempe as well.

They also logged minutes in the top 6 because of injury and line juggling so it skews the stats.

I should point out though that Brown deserved top 6 minutes.

 

[damacles1156]

They also logged minutes in the top 6 because of injury and line juggling so it skews the stats.

I should point out though that Brown deserved top 6 minutes.

Brown did deserve his ice time.

Unfortunately for the Kings, they did not have many wingers playing better than Trevor Lewis/Dustin Brown on most nights.