2017 Draft discussion- Sabres pick 8th. Part 2

[tsujimoto74]

Who the foook has him outside of top10. I would like to see who is top 10 if he isn't

Probably "advanced stat" guys who don't watch him and ignore context.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Probably "advanced stat" guys who don't watch him and ignore context.

I struggle to find three that are a "must" above him at this point. Barkov, who else? Maybe MacKinnon but even there it is a bit questionable at this point. I'm stuck after that... Monahan maybe? Lindholm, Jones, Risto on just about the same level with maybe Wennberg, Horvat just after. Outside top 10 is just crazy

 

[Reddawg]

I struggle to find three that are a "must" above him at this point. Barkov, who else? Maybe MacKinnon but even there it is a bit questionable at this point. I'm stuck after that... Monahan maybe? Lindholm, Jones, Risto on just about the same level with maybe Wennberg, Horvat just after. Outside top 10 is just crazy

The easy answer is that there's a certain type of Internet personality that lives to vote contrarian, just to annoy people and stir controversy.

 

[Zip15]

I struggle to find three that are a "must" above him at this point. Barkov, who else? Maybe MacKinnon but even there it is a bit questionable at this point. I'm stuck after that... Monahan maybe? Lindholm, Jones, Risto on just about the same level with maybe Wennberg, Horvat just after. Outside top 10 is just crazy

I voted top-10, but more realistically it's probably in the 6-8 range. I put MacKinnon, Monahan, Jones, and Barkov ahead of him without much hesitation. Personally, I prefer Horvat to Risto all else being equal (e.g., forward/defense system depth), but that's just a matter of preference. I'd lump Risto with Wennberg and Pesce, and perhaps Drouin and Lindholm. I could see Morrissey pushing is way into the conversation over the next two years, as well.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

The easy answer is that there's a certain type of Internet personality that lives to vote contrarian, just to annoy people and stir controversy.

Aren't those called trolls?

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

I'm taking Risto ahead of everyone aside from Seth Jones and probably Barkov. Not enamored with MacKinnon, he has done nothing since his rookie year besides stagnate. Horvat isn't ahead of Risto, nor is Lindholm or Drouin. Monahan while consistent as a 30/30 guy I don't feel is worth more then Risto. Monahan reminds me of a player who comes into the league and kind of peaks at a really young age. I don't mean it like he peaks at year 2 or 3 and then starts to decline, I mean it as in what we see is what we will get. Monahan will be a 30/30 guy for years to come but I don't ever see him putting up ~75 points or 40 goals. Still a fantastic player and one I hope is who Reinhart develops into, at least offensively.

I just feel that Risto gets unfairly **** on due to analytics. Did he ask to play 27 minutes a night on such a horrid defense with zero help? Would numerous D come in and play Ristos role (27 Mins, pp1, pk1, shutdown assignments etc) and do better ? No.

When he finally gets a quality legit top pairing dman as his partner Risto will be a 10-45-55 #1 dman playing 24-25 mins a night, shutting down the oppositions top line. No forward from 2013 will surpass that besides Barkov if he keeps up the ~75 point elite two way game pace. I also feel Risto can be better then Jones, I don't think Seth would do any better then Risto if roles were reversed. On the flip side I can see Risto doing better then Jones if he had a roster like the Jackets have.

Analytics people **** me off when it comes to Risto so much, they clearly don't watch him actually play and strictly go off #s entered in spreadsheets. Hockey is far too fluid of a game to treat analytics as the end all be all. I find it funny because you would think the biggest sports league in the world (NFL) would have a gigantic analytics community. But the truth is it isn't utilized as much as you would think it would be. Because like hockey, football is just too fluid and too many factors come into play once the ball is snapped. There's a reason why analytics have never created a moneyball type football team that was used for success. The eye test will always be more important than analytics in the NFL. Scouts >>>> computers and data when it comes to football.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

There's a reason why analytics have never created a moneyball type football team that was used for success. The eye test will always be more important than analytics in the NFL. Scouts >>>> computers and data when it comes to football.

The reason is the complexity of the simulation required. Baseball is a modeling of pitcher v batter. Hockey and Football have more moving parts.

It took 100 years for baseball to latch on to sabermetrics. Give the others some time to get their feet wet.

 

[Castle8130]

The best option for the sabres pick is between liljegren and makar because their defense is bad and they could use a skilled smaller dman

 

[1972]

I voted top-10, but more realistically it's probably in the 6-8 range. I put MacKinnon, Monahan, Jones, and Barkov ahead of him without much hesitation. Personally, I prefer Horvat to Risto all else being equal (e.g., forward/defense system depth), but that's just a matter of preference. I'd lump Risto with Wennberg and Pesce, and perhaps Drouin and Lindholm. I could see Morrissey pushing is way into the conversation over the next two years, as well.

Talking about selling Risto short. Jones, Barkov and maybe MacKinnon are the only definitively better players at this point.

 

[tsujimoto74]

With all the discussion about D, Brannstrom seems to be flying under the radar a bit here. Seems like a kid with a very dynamic skillset on the back end. Not that I've watched many draft-eligible players this year, but is there a reason we're not talking about this kid more? Something in his game people don't like?

 

[Jim Bob]

With all the discussion about D, Brannstrom seems to be flying under the radar a bit here. Seems like a kid with a very dynamic skillset on the back end. Not that I've watched many draft-eligible players this year, but is there a reason we're not talking about this kid more? Something in his game people don't like?

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...arget-swedish-defenceman-erik-brannstrom-2017

Brannstrom put up 1.21 points per game in the SuperElit league this season, which is Sweden’s U-20 junior hockey league. This rivals Erik Karlsson’s draft year production of 0.97 points per game, and while we cannot possibly expect him to become the NHL’s best defenceman, this number can also compete with draft-eligible Timothy Liljegren or Flames prospect Oliver Kylington.

Brannstrom put up some great numbers.

He seems like Sweden's answer to Makar.

 

[Jame]

With all the discussion about D, Brannstrom seems to be flying under the radar a bit here. Seems like a kid with a very dynamic skillset on the back end. Not that I've watched many draft-eligible players this year, but is there a reason we're not talking about this kid more? Something in his game people don't like?

i re-watched Canada vs Sweden last night... took me until mid way through the 1st to realize Brannstrom wasn't on the U20 squad...

 

[flashsabre]

Makar gets a lot of hype but I have a feeling that the scouts really don't know if he will be better then Liljegren or even Brannstrom. I could easily see Liljegren being picked before Makar come draft day. Mono pretty much wiped out his year but his skill set jumps off the page when you watch him. He is also 6feet 190lbs while Brannstrom is much smaller but super skilled in the Soupy Campbell mode.

 

[Der Jaeger]

With all the discussion about D, Brannstrom seems to be flying under the radar a bit here. Seems like a kid with a very dynamic skillset on the back end. Not that I've watched many draft-eligible players this year, but is there a reason we're not talking about this kid more? Something in his game people don't like?

I voted for him top ten for our boards. He's very similar to Makar with better QOC.

 

[truthbluth]

I voted for him top ten for our boards. He's very similar to Makar with better QOC.

He's very small. I'll be shocked if he's anywhere near close to his 5'10" listing.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

An interesting post about Makar and scouting in general from a guy who says he was an NHL scout.

Originally Posted by Hiishawk

Not to pull rank or anything but I once worked as an NHL scout (on the lower rungs of the totem pole, mind you) and spent some time scouting AJHL/BCHL. Maybe I can shine a light in here...

When scouting lower-level leagues there are two rules to keep in mind. They may seem contradictory at first, but are actually complementary:

1. You never downgrade a player in your ranking just because of the league he plays in. Never. It's not like Makar tried to make the Dub and failed. If you think a prospect skates like McDavid and shoots like Ovechkin you should never say '...but he plays in a crap league so I'll drop him down 10 spots in my ranking' as if it's some kind of punishment. If he skates like Connor Freakin' McDavid you rank him accordingly.

Having said that...
2. Scouts are always -- always! -- aware of the level of competition. Not only in terms of the league but also the quality of the opposing team and even the quality of players your guy matched up against in any given game. You expect a potential top 10 pick to control the play more at the junior A level. Any scout watching Makar will automatically factor this in.

But there are benchmarks we can look at to gain perspective. We can see how Makar holds up against better competition. At the World Junior A Challenge in December he was the best player on his (all-star) team and, arguably, the best player in the entire tournament. Recently, he was playing in the Western Canada Cup against the very best BCHL teams (both Chilliwack and Penticton have numerous players going to the NCAA next year, players who Makar will play against there) and he is still playing at a dominant level.

Another benchmark would be Brandon Hickey, a defenseman drafted directly out of the AJHL. He has done very well in the NCAA and looks to be a very good NHL prospect but, at the same age and stage of development, I'm confident any and all AJHL observers would tell you that Makar is waaaay ahead.

Me? I'd put him top 5 in this draft without hesitation.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Please figure a way to get this kid.

In a few years we'd have Ristolainen, Guhle, Makar, McCabe, Borgen

 

[Chainshot]

Some video on Liljegren:

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Gabrielor]

I've almost exclusively been watching Brannstrom lately. If we could trade back into the late teens / early 20s with our 2nd +, I'd do it.

I'm still trying to figure how if I like him more than Liljegren.

That said, Makar is still #1 in my heart. His movement is next level.

 

[BB88]

I've been writing a lot about Heiskanen on this board recently, and he's about the perfect prospect for Buffalo in this years draft, when looking at the roster and reading the tweets from Botterills conference.

He could challenge Risto one day as the best Finnish defenseman. If he gets past Colorado I bet he's there at 8.

 

[Samsonite23]

I've been writing a lot about Heiskanen on this board recently, and he's about the perfect prospect for Buffalo in this years draft, when looking at the roster and reading the tweets from Botterills conference.

He could challenge Risto one day as the best Finnish defenseman. If he gets past Colorado I bet he's there at 8.

I'd give it about a .01% chance.

 

[flashsabre]

Some video on Liljegren:

Guhle-Liljegren would be the most beautiful skating d pair in the league!
Guhle-Makar would be right there as well.

Come away with one of the two and I start to feel a whole lot better about the D corps moving forwards.

 

[Zip15]

Urback tweets

His general sentiment re: Mittelstadt is that he's pretty similar to Jake Guentzel in his pre-draft numbers. While Guentzel was severely undervalued as a 3rd rounder, and was more likely a late-1st/early-2nd type of prospect, you probably don't want a Guentzel as top-6 or 8 pick in the draft.

If both Makar and Heiskanen are gone, and we don't trade the pick or trade back, I'm fine with Glass, Tippett, or Pettersson. Speaking of Tippett: