2017 Draft discussion- Sabres pick 8th. Part 2

[1972]

I have Heskainen over Makar but if they are both there, I'm doing handstands up to the stage to make the pick.

I'm trying to picture this

 

[darcyRegier]

Can you even do a handstand?

I've always wanted to see a GM do a full on sprint up to the podium to select a player.

Can you imagine Tim Murray sprinting up to the podium and then saying in his monotone voice "Buffalo selects Connor McDavid" hahaha

 

[1972]

I bet Edmonton fans felt the same way...year after year after year...until McDavid came along.

And in 2014 majority were saying the Oilers should move their pick for a D or move down and take a D. They took "another" forward who turned into an absolute stud and IMO the best player in the entire draft.

 

[DJN21]

How far does foote fall? He's gone from the 6 to 10 range to outside top 10 for sure. I'm a big fan but can't help but agree with his drop given the play of others slated ahead of him.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

 

[Ace]

Yeah the Oilers sure look dumb for continuing to draft forwards. You know they took ANOTHER one last year super high who isn't even a factor yet? I'd hate to have all of that ammo to shape the team how you see fit. It's definitely better to reach for d instead of taking he best player available and upping the talent you have to deal with. It's almost like they were able to trade a great forward away because they had so much in the pipeline...naw...reach for d...definitely.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Yeah, anyone who wants to take the 4th ranked D in this draft who is projected to go in the 18-24 range over one of the premier forward prospects who happens to be a center (the most important forward position) is thinking foolish. Draft BPA period. If Makar, Heiskanen and Liljegren are gone by 8 you don't do something as foolish as taking a totally off the wall reach and bypass a high end forward prospect, you take the best player period. If the top 3 D are gone by 8 that means that one of Vilardi, Mittelstadt and Glass (along with Tippett) are available. All 4 of those guys are rated higher then Valimaki by virtually every single draft expert. And not just a tad bit higher by 10 spots higher. Vilardi, Mittelstadt, Glass and Tippett are all consensus top 8/9 picks. Passing up one of them for Valimaki would be terrible and would have me questioning my GMs tenure literally as soon as it starts. Taking the BPA which happens to be a forward just means you can move another high end forward to fix your D. Like someone already mentioned the Oilers could move Hall for Larsson because they have so many high end forward pieces in the organization.

Let's see which duo is better hypothetically

Sam Reinhart and Juuso Valimaki OR Noah Hanifin and Glass/Vilardi/Mittelstadt

It's quite simple that the second duo is far better then the first. I don't want a Kryukov type pick just because we need D badly. Because first off none of the D in this draft are going to be in the NHL in 17-18. And possibly not even 18-19. A guy like Makar likely needs 3-4 years of seasoning in college and the minors considering the level of competition he played against.

The needs of your NHL club should have absolutely ZERO bearing when it comes to your first round pick. Outside the first and possibly second round, sure, you can draft for need. But when it comes to the building blocks of your franchise, the players that you need to be elite and lead your team on the ice, you draft the best possible ones, regardless of position. I don't care if we have Eichel, RoR and Reinhart at center. If Gabe Vilardi is somehow available at 8 I'm taking yet another center and not making a terrible selection and drafting Valimaki nearly half a round higher then he should be taken just because my pro teams defense is terrible. Address the Sabres D woes through trade and free agency. Address the Sabres woes of being a terrible team period with our first round pick, you win games by having a better team that defeats other teams. If it means using a first on another center, which would be taking 5 centers out of our last 8 first round picks on centers since 2012. That's fine by me.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Draft rankings/BPA argument is dumb. If anyone actually knew who the best players were going to be heading into the draft, the drafts would look a hell of a lot different. 14 guys were selected ahead of Erik Karlsson in 2008, 128 before Jamie Benn in 2007, etc. I bet it's only a matter of time until Bogo becomes a superior player to Karlsson since he was 10 spots higher in the consensus rankings, though.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

http://www.dobberprospects.com/nhl-draft-rankings/

Would be amazing if this comes reality at the draft with us getting Makar.

Also 1 more in the "who have you seen rank Mittelstadt in Top3". I also like Valimaki at 14-17 where most seem to have him ranked. I really want us to somehow trade up to get him if he is still there around 15th (obviously without inclusion of Nylander from our side).

 

[Reddawg]

Draft rankings/BPA argument is dumb. If anyone actually knew who the best players were going to be heading into the draft, the drafts would look a hell of a lot different. 14 guys were selected ahead of Erik Karlsson in 2008, 128 before Jamie Benn in 2007, etc. I bet it's only a matter of time until Bogo becomes a superior player to Karlsson since he was 10 spots higher in the consensus rankings, though.

I'll never forget Ottawa fans (they hosted the draft that year) summarily booing the Karlsson pick when it was made and Pierre trying to reassure them with his thumbs that he was a good player.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Yeah the Oilers sure look dumb for continuing to draft forwards. You know they took ANOTHER one last year super high who isn't even a factor yet? I'd hate to have all of that ammo to shape the team how you see fit. It's definitely better to reach for d instead of taking he best player available and upping the talent you have to deal with. It's almost like they were able to trade a great forward away because they had so much in the pipeline...naw...reach for d...definitely.

glad you brought up the poster trade for why you draft D over forwards, saves the rest of the world

 

[1972]

Draft rankings/BPA argument is dumb. If anyone actually knew who the best players were going to be heading into the draft, the drafts would look a hell of a lot different. 14 guys were selected ahead of Erik Karlsson in 2008, 128 before Jamie Benn in 2007, etc. I bet it's only a matter of time until Bogo becomes a superior player to Karlsson since he was 10 spots higher in the consensus rankings, though.

Well of course it's difficult to predict who the best players will be in some years, but the best drafting teams seem to get it right more often then not.

 

[Jim Bob]

Well of course it's difficult to predict who the best players will be in some years, but the best drafting teams seem to get it right more often then not.

Who would you say are the best drafting teams?

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Draft rankings/BPA argument is dumb. If anyone actually knew who the best players were going to be heading into the draft, the drafts would look a hell of a lot different. 14 guys were selected ahead of Erik Karlsson in 2008, 128 before Jamie Benn in 2007, etc. I bet it's only a matter of time until Bogo becomes a superior player to Karlsson since he was 10 spots higher in the consensus rankings, though.

I understand completely, when I rant I start not making sense too. No disrespect intended.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Well of course it's difficult to predict who the best players will be in some years, but the best drafting teams seem to get it right more often then not.

True, but my point was just that it doesn't make any sense to react so negatively if the pick doesn't follow consensus. Consensus gets stuff wrong all the time. What matters is if the Sabres get it right, which we won't know for years. Especially in a draft like this one where there's no truly elite (i.e., sure-fire top line/top pairing) talent...Would it honestly surprise anyone if, years down the road, the best player from this draft was taken outside of the top 5?

 

[CatsforReinhart]

True, but my point was just that it doesn't make any sense to react so negatively if the pick doesn't follow consensus. Consensus gets stuff wrong all the time. What matters is if the Sabres get it right, which we won't know for years. Especially in a draft like this one where there's no truly elite (i.e., sure-fire top line/top pairing) talent...Would it honestly surprise anyone if, years down the road, the best player from this draft was taken outside of the top 5?

I don't think it is about consensus but about percentages with a small amount of team need. BPA IMO, is always the best way to go.

 

[Husko]

I see a bit of discussion of wanting to trade back into the teens to get Valimaki. Gotta be honest, don't really understand it. If you like him, and especially if he's your highest rated D left on the board, then just take him. Is an extra second or third round pick really worth potentially losing the guy you want? If he's the D you want take him at 8, regardless if the consensus is he should go 5 spot so later

 

[BarbadosSlim]

Who would you say are the best drafting teams?

According to an analyst's view we are actually...


https://github.com/namitanandakumar/Draft-Analysis/blob/master/NHL Draft/VanHAC Slides.pdf

Not saying I agree or disagree with the view, it's a fairly difficult thing to measure.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

I see a bit of discussion of wanting to trade back into the teens to get Valimaki. Gotta be honest, don't really understand it. If you like him, and especially if he's your highest rated D left on the board, then just take him. Is an extra second or third round pick really worth potentially losing the guy you want? If he's the D you want take him at 8, regardless if the consensus is he should go 5 spot so later

What I want is to somehow trade up from 37 to around 15 to get him. I think consensus is he is a reach at 8 and most likely will be available in the teens. But when I tried to find out what it would take on the trade board to trade up to the mid-teens, I don't think there was a clear consensus on what it would take.

 

[Jim Bob]

What I want is to somehow trade up from 37 to around 15 to get him. I think consensus is he is a reach at 8 and most likely will be available in the teens. But when I tried to find out what it would take on the trade board to trade up to the mid-teens, I don't think there was a clear consensus on what it would take.

When is the last time a deal like that happened?

To get 15, you aren't doing an NFL-like trade up.

It would have to be someone wanting to say trade 15OV for Kane.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

When is the last time a deal like that happened?

To get 15, you aren't doing an NFL-like trade up.

It would have to be someone wanting to say trade 15OV for Kane.

Do we do this? A bubble team from this year wanting a top quality winger for next year? Does not sound impossible to me. I'd do it in a heartbeat even though I like Kane, but he is UFA soon... I'd even think about adding some secondary prospect or low pick.

 

[brian_griffin]

According to an analyst's view we are actually...


https://github.com/namitanandakumar/Draft-Analysis/blob/master/NHL Draft/VanHAC Slides.pdf

Not saying I agree or disagree with the view, it's a fairly difficult thing to measure.

Meh, the data is from 2001-2009. I'd rather look at 2007 on, if it's meaningful to do so.

Moreover, the authors make the point the stratification isn't terribly large within the top-20 and bottom-10 drafting teams. Teams at the tails of the distribution (including BUF) have a higher variance. I'd rather have low variance in this metric from an ELC replenishment standpoint, even if it means I miss on a hidden gem every now and then. Far more important to not draft a Dennis Persson or Artem Kruikov than to miss out on a Jamie Benn or Erik Karlsson.

 

[Husko]

What I want is to somehow trade up from 37 to around 15 to get him. I think consensus is he is a reach at 8 and most likely will be available in the teens. But when I tried to find out what it would take on the trade board to trade up to the mid-teens, I don't think there was a clear consensus on what it would take.

I don't think that is such a consensus. And is 8 to 13 really that big of a difference?

If you like and want him take him at 8.

 

[Zip15]

Below is some advanced stats-y stuff about draft-eligible CHL players (thus, Makar and Heiskanen not included). That Markus Phillips (D, Owen Sound) looks like he could be a steal in the 2nd round.

NOTE: All of the advanced stats guys absolutely despise Rasmussen.

 

[truthbluth]

Below is some advanced stats-y stuff about draft-eligible CHL players (thus, Makar and Heiskanen not included). That Markus Phillips (D, Owen Sound) looks like he could be a steal in the 2nd round.

Don't disagree on Rasmussen, but I'm not sure TOI, pts, and +/- relative to team are advanced stats.