JOKER 192
Blow it up
The only problem can be that those last teams may be resting players if their fate has already been determined. They will all play like hell if not though because you sure do want to finish 1st if you can.
2017 Bruins Playoffs Odds II - Currently 74.1% chance of qualifying
- Thread starter Fenway
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The only problem can be that those last teams may be resting players if their fate has already been determined. They will all play like hell if not though because you sure do want to finish 1st if you can.
northeastern
Registered User
The swings are absurd... I'm sure it's based on something statistically but +-20% jumps in one night shouldn't be possible.
talkinaway
Registered User
There's a lot of good reasons for the huge swings. Just due to the nature of the game (puck luck, low scoring games), the vast majority of hockey games are 50-50, or close to it - in that way, hockey's more like soccer than football, basketball, or even baseball. This explains why, fairly often, you'll feel like the Bruins played like crap but still won, or played their ***** off and still lost.
In fact, you can literally turn a 50/50 mode on in the model, and it only changes the percentages a little bit. Outside of bottom dwelling teams like Colorado and Arizona, the "favorite" team is rarely much better than 67% to win.
So, we're literally flipping coins each game. Since we need to win a little over half the points to have a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs, every flip will cause a fairly big swing, especially this late in the season.
Basically, the model is just telling us what we already know from looking at the standings, and from knowing that good teams win slightly more than average, and bad teams lose slightly more than average. Coin flipping gets us to about 55%, and knowing that the Bruins are a slightly above average team gives us a small 5% boost.
So, yeah, the stats site is moderately useless if you look at the standings. And as the season closes, the swings will get bigger. Two teams tied in the standings and playing game 82 against each other will each see a swing of about 50% - one up, and one down.
In fact, you can literally turn a 50/50 mode on in the model, and it only changes the percentages a little bit. Outside of bottom dwelling teams like Colorado and Arizona, the "favorite" team is rarely much better than 67% to win.
So, we're literally flipping coins each game. Since we need to win a little over half the points to have a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs, every flip will cause a fairly big swing, especially this late in the season.
Basically, the model is just telling us what we already know from looking at the standings, and from knowing that good teams win slightly more than average, and bad teams lose slightly more than average. Coin flipping gets us to about 55%, and knowing that the Bruins are a slightly above average team gives us a small 5% boost.
So, yeah, the stats site is moderately useless if you look at the standings. And as the season closes, the swings will get bigger. Two teams tied in the standings and playing game 82 against each other will each see a swing of about 50% - one up, and one down.
Keep in mind the algorithm is forecasting the results of all remaining games to be played. Last night was a costly home regulation loss for the Islanders. These stats mean nothing but to be a conversation starter and gives a one glance look at the overall picture.
The Bruins have 7 games left ( 14 points ) left with SIX coming at home. We know instinctively they are going to get burnt at home by someone. I can't look at any of those 6 games and say there is an easy 2 points. The one road game is at Chicago and a lot depends on what Blackhawks team shows up. (see last night in Sunrise).
NBC when looking at the schedule last summer correctly predicted the Bruins would be fighting to the last day which is why 2 of our remaining 7 get Doc, Eddie and Pierre and they also have an exclusive on NBCSN for the Dallas game at home on Thursday. Dave Strader is penciled in to work that game if his health allows.
The next 2 weeks will be a
LSCII
Cup driven
It's only possible because they won while the teams they essentially needed to lose did. So they came up a bit and those guys dropped a bit. It's the same reason they dropped 40% points over the last few days. The B's were losing while Toronto and the Islanders were winning. In the end it all balances itself out. All you need to do is realize that they're currently in the playoffs and they control their own destiny, percentages aside.
LSCII
Cup driven
They're not in as dire a strait as the percentages would indicate lately. They're still in. The ups and downs are all just numbers because again, they're currently in. It's up to them to play well enough to maintain that spot. It's all on them.
Dueling Banjos
Registered User
- Oct 29, 2014
- 7,147
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Jean_Jacket41
Neely = HOF
Bruinfanatic
Registered User
Sure hope we get some help.Bruins aren't going to win all there games so they will need some help. Suspect goaltending,top scorers have disappeared ,yeah there gonna need some help down the stretch.
Chicago was embarrassed 7-0 by the Panthers in their last game, I'm hoping they come out flying in this one.
Good to get the win on Saturday, but we can't rely on Riley Nash to provide the heroics down the stretch. To have a good chance of making it, we need BERGERON to score some goals.
xgallantx
Sold Soul for a Cup
ODAAT
Registered User
I totally ignored the fact that the Canes have played themselves back into this
A NYI loss would be huge... and then we capitalize on the Preds playing the 2nd of their back to back tomorrow.
Have the top scorers disappeared or have teams realized they only need to shut down 3 players?
ODAAT
Registered User
pretty sure it`s the latter, we fans can see it from our couch, can`t imagine opponents can`t but wait.......................betcha they forgot all about our 4th line snipah
Bruinfanatic
Registered User
It's hard to see a way to the playoffs unless Bergeron overcomes whatever physical issues he is having and scores some goals. Marchand can't do it all himself.
The second one, but now they're torn - do you send your top two pairings at Marchand/Bergeron/Pastrnak or do you try to have them shut down Riley Nash
The second one, but now they're torn - do you send your top two pairings at Marchand/Bergeron/Pastrnak or do you try to have them shut down Riley Nash
Isles loses. Hurricanes also. Now hope Tampa loses.
BsEuphoria
The Future
- Sep 21, 2013
- 2,125
- 2
TY Hawks, hope we kick the crap out of you for squandering that 3 goal lead... That would have been a huge win for us
TimThomas24
Registered User
- Jun 13, 2013
- 1,205
- 1,485
Big loser tonight is the Islanders who lost again at home in regulation.
Tampa Bay now appears the team to worry about the most.
Tampa Bay now appears the team to worry about the most.
bruinmann77
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