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2016 Tank & Rebuild Thread: 6 Pts Behind Winnipeg. Tank Chugging Along

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Another big night for both picks coming up. Also for future reference:
BOLD - Clear winner
ITALICS - OT game
UNDERLINE - No clear cut favorite to win, but if I HAVE to choose a winner I will underline them

MIN vs BUF -> Buffalo in OT would be nice, puts Minny a bit closer to Pittsburgh, but the Leafs pick is more important.
NSH vs COL -> Creates some space between NSH and PIT, OT isn't a big deal here as COL already has 3GP more than PIT
CAL vs PIT -> Calgary in OT. Gives PIT a point to widen the gap from 8th to 9th, but more importantly gives CAL 2 points. PIT by shootout is also okay.
ANA vs LAK -> Game doesn't really matter
MON vs WPG -> A Winnipeg win would be good here. As far as Montreal has fallen, they're still 14 points up on the Leafs.
OTT vs TOR -> Another close loss. Eats away at our games in hand against other basement dwellers. Ottawa will still stay a safe distance behind PIT after this win
CAR vs TBL -> Will keep Carolina in the sweet spot between the Leafs and Pens.
WSH vs BOS -> Widens the gap between PIT and themselves in case BOS falls into a WC spot.
CBJ vs PHI -> Will keep both PHI and PIT with the same number of games played, with a 5 point gap. Will put CBJ in a good spot ahead of us.
FLA vs ARI -> Basement team needs to win to create more breathing room.
VAN vs SJS -> OT either way is nice, gives some room between both the Leafs and Pens.
 
Tank Commander Cor said:
people greatly overrate us.

As bad as Calgary and Winnipeg may be, we are far worse
Click to expand...

On paper they are way better but it cannot be denied the sum of our team is greater than the parts and that is the Babs factor.

Its been said before how can Edmonton be fighting us for last when they have so much more talent ? Granted we lost some key guys like Dion and Riemer who cemented out bottom feeder status. We have one real first line forward (JVR) and he is no power house, certainly not as good as Hall, we have 2 #2 C (and that might be generous) neither is clearly better than their 3rd best center (RNH). On D we have 2 top 4 guys and 1 top 6 and a bunch of ahl guys. We have 0 advantages on them but 1, coaching.
 
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TMLFC said:
I am scared by Cal and Ari.
I see some life in Buf and edm.
Click to expand...

I'm scared of everyone until the draft lottery is over.
We need the first. Enough of the stupid reasons that Arizona or whoever else does.
We need it. Then the NHL can do whatever. They can name Bettman King of Las Vegas after that for all I care.
 
GR - Current Point

Toronto - 19 - 52
Calgary - 18 - 56
Edmonton - 15 - 57
Winnipeg - 19 - 57
Buffalo - 17 - 60
Arizona - 18 - 60
Vancouver - 19 - 60
Columbus - 17 - 62
Montreal - 17 - 66
Ottawa - 17 - 67


As high up as Montreal I worry about still being a Leafs fan.

According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html though Edmonton and Calgary can't drop to last, not sure what thats about.


Toronto's win% projects them to finish with 67.6 points.

Current point % - 67.6 points
.500 (1 point/per game) - 71
.550 - 73
.600 - 74.8

Ideal night...

Toronto loses to Ottawa
Calgary beats Pittsburgh (in OT)
Winnipeg beats Montreal (in OT)
Buffalo beats Minnesota
Arizona beats Florida
Vancouver beats San Jose
Columbus beats Philly

If perfect

Toronto - 18 - 52
Edmonton - 15 - 57
Calgary - 17 - 58
Winnipeg - 18 - 59
Buffalo - 16 - 62
Arizona - 17 - 62
Vancouver - 18 - 62
Columbus - 16 - 64
--- No longer a threat ---
Montreal - 16 - 67
Ottawa - 16 - 69

Our point projection will dip to 66.626, and even if we maintain our current point streak Montreal would have to lose out and still not fall below us. So Montreal and Ottawa can be out of our danger area for the rest of the season. And it becomes an 8 horse race.
 
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Finishing bottom 2 is all I care about.

You lock up a top 5 pick at worst and get dubois.
 
Hero said:
Toronto - 18 - 52
Edmonton - 15 - 57
Calgary - 17 - 58
Winnipeg - 18 - 59
Buffalo - 16 - 62
Arizona - 17 - 62
Vancouver - 18 - 62
Columbus - 16 - 64
--- No longer a threat ---
Montreal - 16 - 67
Ottawa - 16 - 69
Click to expand...

I would say the bolded above are realistically no longer a threat

I have this bad feeling that a team like New Jersey will win the lottery - it would be completely unexpected based on their overall chances
 
Also penguins pick has been working out beautifuly.

Devils and Carolina have almost no chance of passing the Penguins (5 and 6 points behind) and Penguins have 2 and 3 games in hand on them

Philly is the only real contender. 5 points out with equal games.

Penguins should be making the PO's

Only issue is they may just be able to pass into the 1st WC spot which would be a bit worse. They're currently 15th in the league. So we just need Minny to pick up the slack and stay ahead of Pittsburgh point wise.

With under 20 games to got this season still has the potential to end perfectly.
 
The Shadow said:
I would say the bolded above are realistically no longer a threat

I have this bad feeling that a team like New Jersey will win the lottery - it would be completely unexpected based on their overall chances
Click to expand...

Well that list is if everything goes well

Toronto - 18 - 52
...
Buffalo - 16 - 62
Arizona - 17 - 62
Vancouver - 18 - 62
Columbus - 16 - 64

Any of those 4 clubs who do the "18-wheeler" thing and if we pick up a bit of heat they sink below us.

Anyone above them could 18-wheeler hard and still not pass us.
 
TMLFC said:
I am scared by Cal and Ari.
I see some life in Buf and edm.
Click to expand...
The way I see it for the majority of this season Toronto has been in the position a lot of people predicting them to be. While teams like Calgary and Winnipeg are starting to lose a lot more, hopefully their run to last place will be to late since Toronto got a head start on that. For example last season if it was not for that 10-1-1 stretch the Leafs went on before Randy Carlyle got fired, maybe the Leafs would have ended up worse in the standings than the Oilers.
 
Hero said:
GR - Current Point

Toronto - 19 - 52
Calgary - 18 - 56
Edmonton - 15 - 57
Winnipeg - 19 - 57
Buffalo - 17 - 60
Arizona - 18 - 60
Vancouver - 19 - 60
Columbus - 17 - 62
Montreal - 17 - 66
Ottawa - 17 - 67


As high up as Montreal I worry about still being a Leafs fan.

According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html though Edmonton and Calgary can't drop to last, not sure what thats about.


Toronto's win% projects them to finish with 67.6 points.

Current point % - 67.6 points
.500 (1 point/per game) - 71
.550 - 73
.600 - 74.8

Ideal night...

Toronto loses to Ottawa
Calgary beats Pittsburgh (in OT)
Winnipeg beats Montreal (in OT)
Buffalo beats Minnesota
Arizona beats Florida
Vancouver beats San Jose
Columbus beats Philly

If perfect

Toronto - 18 - 52
Edmonton - 15 - 57
Calgary - 17 - 58
Winnipeg - 18 - 59
Buffalo - 16 - 62
Arizona - 17 - 62
Vancouver - 18 - 62
Columbus - 16 - 64
--- No longer a threat ---
Montreal - 16 - 67
Ottawa - 16 - 69

Our point projection will dip to 66.626, and even if we maintain our current point streak Montreal would have to lose out and still not fall below us. So Montreal and Ottawa can be out of our danger area for the rest of the season. And it becomes an 8 horse race.
Click to expand...

yea at this point I don't see us even remotely close to catching Montreal or Ottawa if we went 500 from now till the end of the year we would only be at 71 points 9-9-1, that's a huge stretch for this team to even come close to that considering how they've played since the new year. and that means in Montreals final 17 games they could only get 4 points to be tied with us meaing 2-15 finish. that is highly unlikely.

imo unless we win 4-5 games in a row and right now anyone who watches the Leafs should know that's pretty much no chance that happens the teams who are at 60 points are out of reach for this team. if we continue to play like this team has since the new year Jan 1, we will end up at 64 points. therefore it's pretty hard to believe teams like Vancouver/Buffalo/Arizona wont win 3 games in there last 16-19 games.

at this point I expect Edmonton to continue on winning some games Talbot is playing really well for them and so I believe there no longer a threat either the only teams who are is Calgary and Winnipeg imo.
 
-DeMo- said:
yea at this point I don't see us even remotely close to catching Montreal or Ottawa if we went 500 from now till the end of the year we would only be at 71 points 9-9-1, that's a huge stretch for this team to even come close to that considering how they've played since the new year. and that means in Montreals final 17 games they could only get 4 points to be tied with us meaing 2-15 finish. that is highly unlikely.

imo unless we win 4-5 games in a row and right now anyone who watches the Leafs should know that's pretty much no chance that happens the teams who are at 60 points are out of reach for this team. if we continue to play like this team has since the new year Jan 1, we will end up at 64 points. therefore it's pretty hard to believe teams like Vancouver/Buffalo/Arizona wont win 3 games in there last 16-19 games.

at this point I expect Edmonton to continue on winning some games Talbot is playing really well for them and so I believe there no longer a threat either the only teams who are is Calgary and Winnipeg imo.
Click to expand...

add Arizona to that list. 3 wins in last 16, 7 straight losses. And look at their roster. :help:
 
Didact said:
add Arizona to that list. 3 wins in last 16, 7 straight losses. And look at their roster. :help:
Click to expand...

I honestly think that's us next season. with a few extra rookies etc - they'll run hot - then hit that wall and then depending on where we are we'll be between 1-6-8ish
 
The Shadow said:
I have this bad feeling that a team like New Jersey will win the lottery - it would be completely unexpected based on their overall chances
Click to expand...

It's a lot more likely than most people like to think. I think the current lottery format is going to end up pissing a lot of people off after several years. It's fair, but it is not just. The NHL has added a lot of randomness to the pick order, and humans don't actually cope very well with randomness. That's why the shuffle feature in music apps like iTunes isn't actually random -- a truly random shuffle leads to lucky streaks that people perceive as "not random", like the Oilers winning too often.

Sooner rather than later you're going to see something like last year's LA Kings barely missing the playoffs, only to win the lottery and draft a superstar who helps them become a dynasty.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if within a few years there are provisions to disqualify teams that have already won the lottery or Stanley Cup recently.
 
It's really sad that Pens fans defend Kessel so much. The guy sucks, he shows flashes but he's such a lazy player. Seems like he's still out of shape too.
 
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