2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[Daximus]

One of Juolevi or Sergachev if available. If not then one of McLeod, Luc Dubois or Gauthier.

McLeod is an interesting pick. Fast, physical two-way center. Drawing comparisons to Toews.

 

[Duke749]

Chych could slide but I just don't see it. D often slide but going from 2 to below 5 doesn't happen very often if at all lately. Doughty went 2nd, Ekblad 1st.
Jones and Hanafin both slide a bit but I think Chych has a higher potential than both of them. I see him going top 3.
At the #2 spot I imagine Buffalo, Toronto, Edmonton, maybe San Jose, Winnipeg, Vancouver all could very likely take him just as much as they could take one of the Finns.

But then you have Jones, Larsson, and Fowler. You could maybe even consider Trouba falling to us. The '08 draft was D heavy and had a guy like Karlsson go 16th. But not sure that draft is a good example for or against with regards to D. I feel like if it's not D heavy, they'll slide a bit. But I could be wrong on that.

 

[Daximus]

But then you have Jones, Larsson, and Fowler. You could maybe even consider Trouba falling to us. The '08 draft was D heavy and had a guy like Karlsson go 16th. But not sure that draft is a good example for or against with regards to D. I feel like if it's not D heavy, they'll slide a bit. But I could be wrong on that.

It's hard to say. The kid is drawing comparisons to Ekblad. I've watched two Sting games and he looked really good in both of them. Took the game over a number of times. Was great in both ends and on the rush.
There are a number of teams at the bottom of the standings that could use a cornerstone defencemen as well.

 

[Huffer]

I've read some very positive reports about big LHD Sergachyov (Windsor). Sounds like he could be a great partner for Trouba or Myers. I loved Juolevi at the WJHC, too. I think the Jets will end up with a good player with or without a big tank.

If we somehow get a pick in the mid teens for either Ladd or Buff, and our pick is in the top 5, a great scenario would be to get a top forward like one of the Fins or Tkachuk with the 1st, and maybe a guy like Sergachyov (if he's still there) with the 2nd 1st. Or, get a guy like Chychrun with the Jets 1st, and maybe a guy like Gauthier or Dubois with the 2nd 1st.

Obviously I'm more than fine with taking the BPA as decided by the Jets for either pick (if they are both forwards, or both D), but those 2 scenario's would be pretty great IMO.

 

[Daximus]

Been working on this for awhile. Here is my personal top 15;

1. Auston Matthews
2. Jakob Chychrun
3. Jesse Puljujarvi
4. Patrick Laine
5. Matthew Tkachuk
6. Olli Juolevi
7. Alex Nylander
8. Mikhail Sergachev
9. Mike McLeod
10. Pierre-Luc Dubois
11. Dante Fabbro
12. Logan Brown
13. Kieffer Bellows
14. German Rubstov
15. Julien Gauthier

 

[Daximus]

If we somehow get a pick in the mid teens for either Ladd or Buff, and our pick is in the top 5, a great scenario would be to get a top forward like one of the Fins or Tkachuk with the 1st, and maybe a guy like Sergachyov (if he's still there) with the 2nd 1st. Or, get a guy like Chychrun with the Jets 1st, and maybe a guy like Gauthier or Dubois with the 2nd 1st.

Obviously I'm more than fine with taking the BPA as decided by the Jets for either pick (if they are both forwards, or both D), but those 2 scenario's would be pretty great IMO.

That would certainly be a solid duo to take.

Getting one of the top 4 defencemen and one of the top 11 forwards would be great. Even outside of that there are some interesting prospects that are projected to go in the later first round and beyond.

 

[Whileee]

Give me Sergachyev and Bellows or Keller and I'm happy, too.

 

[BrianFromAIH]

My dream combo is Laine and Chychrun. But another LHD (preferably bigger) to fill the hole in the prospect pool would be phenomenal. Like Sergachev.

 

[JetsFan815]

Been working on this for awhile. Here is my personal top 15;

1. Auston Matthews
2. Jakob Chychrun
3. Jesse Puljujarvi
4. Patrick Laine
5. Matthew Tkachuk
6. Olli Juolevi
7. Alex Nylander
8. Mikhail Sergachev
9. Mike McLeod
10. Pierre-Luc Dubois
11. Dante Fabbro
12. Logan Brown
13. Kieffer Bellows
14. German Rubstov
15. Julien Gauthier

What a name!

 

[Daximus]

My dream combo is Laine and Chychrun. But another LHD (preferably bigger) to fill the hole in the prospect pool would be phenomenal. Like Sergachev.

That would be a dream combo but would likely require 2 top 4 picks.
One of the Finns and a 10-15 pick LHD is definitely possible.

I'd prefer Chych and a 10-15 Center or Matthews and a 10-15 LHD out of the more likely, but still dreamer, scenarios.

 

[Boreal]

If we're drafting in the top 3/4, the D available would have to be a can't-miss-monster (eg. Ekblad), for me to to D over F at that point. I'm not sure I like Chych enough to leave Puljujarvi or Laine on the board. I'd much rather get the #4 pick if we want a D. Either Chych is left and we happily draft him, or we take whomever is left of Puljujarvi or Laine and I don't have to worry about the pick going full Bogosian on us.

 

[Daximus]

If we're drafting in the top 3/4, the D available would have to be a can't-miss-monster (eg. Ekblad), for me to to D over F at that point. I'm not sure I like Chych enough to leave Puljujarvi or Laine on the board. I'd much rather get the #4 pick if we want a D. Either Chych is left and we happily draft him, or we take whomever is left of Puljujarvi or Laine and I don't have to worry about the pick going full Bogosian on us.

What about Chych has you not convinced he's a can't miss defencemen?

 

[AWSAA]

Yeah, wouldn't want Chychrun @ 2nd overall. D drafted that high rarely prove to be BPA. Is it even safe to say he's best at his position? His numbers are way down from last year.

Top end forwards are generally safer to project... and the Fins look like the real deal.

SO Is Chych really Doughty, Hedman, Ekblad caliber OR closer to E. Johnson/J. Johnson/Gudbranson who were selected ahead of Toews, Kopitar, Johansen, Tarasenko.

 

[Daximus]

Yeah, wouldn't want Chychrun @ 2nd overall. D drafted that high rarely prove to be BPA. Is it even safe to say he's best at his position? His numbers are way down from last year.

Top end forwards are generally safer to project... and the Fins look like the real deal.

SO Is Chych really Doughty, Hedman, Ekblad caliber OR closer to E. Johnson/J. Johnson/Gudbranson who were selected ahead of Toews, Kopitar, Johansen, Tarasenko.

I think, and this is just my opinion as I read a lot about this kid, that he has really improved other parts of his game. He really is not that far off from last years pace but if you notice he has massively improved his defensive game since last season.
Kid is a very well rounded two-way defencemen that is psychically mature. IMO, and take that for what you feel its worth, he is on the Doughty, Hedman, Ekblad level. It seems not making the WJC roster for Canada is really hurting this kids draft year. Which bodes really well for whomever picks him out of the top 5 if he falls.

 

[drumzan]

Drafting BPA > drafting for need

You draft BPA, trade/free agency for need.

 

[Daximus]

Drafting BPA > drafting for need

You draft BPA, trade/free agency for need.

I'm sure Edmonton agrees.
Hows that trade for a dman going for them again?
BPA is so usually subjective outside of the top end guys you can draft for need and make it look like a BPA pick. It's really in how the team/scouts justify it to themselves and if they feel like it to their fans.

 

[Bob E]

Hopeful for a top 5 pick.

Chyckrun would be a great addition. Solves a few organizational needs.

Not overly worried about a C. Little and Scheifele as a tandem are top 10 (9 th) in scoring so far this year. We have a few C prospects (Petan, Roslovic, Harkins) in the pipeline and with Connor coming in a year or two (and Lemiuex looking like a fit in the bottom 6) our winger depth is pretty good. Could stand a RW prospect, but Spacek helps there, as would Roslovic.

We could definitely use a few high end D prospects. LH and RH. Wouldn't mind a few with size drafted.

 

[garret9]

I'm sure Edmonton agrees.
Hows that trade for a dman going for them again?
BPA is so usually subjective outside of the top end guys you can draft for need and make it look like a BPA pick. It's really in how the team/scouts justify it to themselves and if they feel like it to their fans.

If you really think Edmonton has drafted BPA you might want to relook at their drafting outside of the first round.

Edmonton is constantly used as an argument against BPA and it's so wrong.

1) The 1st rounders aren't the problem. The oilers have done really well with RNH and Hall on the ice. There's also no franchise saving players on D they could have taken instead thus far. The only exception is Yakupov and his development has been a lot more stagnant than anyone previously would have guessed.

2) They drafted for need outside of the first round, or at least what they thought they needed. They drafted big Coke machines who couldn't play and tough players who don't score quite often. They are literally the worst non-1st-round drafting team over their tank history.

3) They undervalued the few good defenders they had. Guys like Gilbert and Petry, while over valued gritty plugs who sucked. They traded away the few good defenders for pennies on the dollar while buying bad stock.

4) They did poorly in retaining and accumulating assets, and never really garnered draft picks.

5) They were also unlucky in that the (aside from Hall/Seguin) they tanked in some of the weakest years for top 3 draftee talent.

Really the Edmonton Oilers are not an anti tank or BPA example, but rather an example of how not to do it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hopeful for a top 5 pick.

Chyckrun would be a great addition. Solves a few organizational needs.

Not overly worried about a C. Little and Scheifele as a tandem are top 10 (9 th) in scoring so far this year. We have a few C prospects (Petan, Roslovic, Harkins) in the pipeline and with Connor coming in a year or two (and Lemiuex looking like a fit in the bottom 6) our winger depth is pretty good. Could stand a RW prospect, but Spacek helps there, as would Roslovic.

We could definitely use a few high end D prospects. LH and RH. Wouldn't mind a few with size drafted.

Agree. 1 potential top pair LHD + 1 more each side looking for 2nd pair that could be drafted in later rounds. That 1LHD is the greatest need and is needed sooner rather than later. If we can't draft him by BPA we should be prepared to part with almost any of our prospects to get him if necessary.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If you really think Edmonton has drafted BPA you might want to relook at their drafting outside of the first round.

Edmonton is constantly used as an argument against BPA and it's so wrong.

1) The 1st rounders aren't the problem. The oilers have done really well with RNH and Hall on the ice. There's also no franchise saving players on D they could have taken instead thus far. The only exception is Yakupov and his development has been a lot more stagnant than anyone previously would have guessed.

2) They drafted for need outside of the first round, or at least what they thought they needed. They drafted big Coke machines who couldn't play and tough players who don't score quite often. They are literally the worst non-1st-round drafting team over their tank history.

3) They undervalued the few good defenders they had. Guys like Gilbert and Petry, while over valued gritty plugs who sucked. They traded away the few good defenders for pennies on the dollar while buying bad stock.

4) They did poorly in retaining and accumulating assets, and never really garnered draft picks.

5) They were also unlucky in that the (aside from Hall/Seguin) they tanked in some of the weakest years for top 3 draftee talent.

Really the Edmonton Oilers are not an anti tank or BPA example, but rather an example of how not to do it.

I don't think the bold is correct. They were not necessarily drafting for need. Correct me if I am wrong but you have described it in the past as overvaluing the wrong attributes. That is not the same as saying 'we need LHD, take the best LHD available'. They went out and drafted bad hockey players regardless of anything else. They also traded away quite a few players.

Really the Oilers shouldn't be used to defend any point except that doing nearly everything wrong won't work.

Edit: Read the rest of your post and ended up saying pretty much what I would have expected you to say. Still disagree with the bold though. They shouldn't be used as an argument against drafting for need either.

 

[Daximus]

If you really think Edmonton has drafted BPA you might want to relook at their drafting outside of the first round.

Edmonton is constantly used as an argument against BPA and it's so wrong.

1) The 1st rounders aren't the problem. The oilers have done really well with RNH and Hall on the ice. There's also no franchise saving players on D they could have taken instead thus far. The only exception is Yakupov and his development has been a lot more stagnant than anyone previously would have guessed.

2) They drafted for need outside of the first round, or at least what they thought they needed. They drafted big Coke machines who couldn't play and tough players who don't score quite often. They are literally the worst non-1st-round drafting team over their tank history.

3) They undervalued the few good defenders they had. Guys like Gilbert and Petry, while over valued gritty plugs who sucked. They traded away the few good defenders for pennies on the dollar while buying bad stock.

4) They did poorly in retaining and accumulating assets, and never really garnered draft picks.

5) They were also unlucky in that the (aside from Hall/Seguin) they tanked in some of the weakest years for top 3 draftee talent.

Really the Edmonton Oilers are not an anti tank or BPA example, but rather an example of how not to do it.

Which only further proves the point that BPA is subjective. Edmonton actually thought they were drafting the best players, gritty and tough. Those players were likely BPA on their scouts lists. They obviously opted to take a Dman over a forward in some cases, and vice versa, but not all cases.
BPA is subjective outside of the top guys between almost every single scout, team, fan and analyst. Very few even agree on even how the top and middle of the 1st round should look this year. I despise the words BPA because it assumes that everyone thinks player A is definitely the #43 pick in this years draft, which is never ever the case. BPA is just a way of saying take who you think is best and its obvious there will be some biases in that decision.
Simply saying I will take BPA could mean 5-6 different players in a given draft position depending on who you personally like more.

 

[PhilJets]

The Jets will probably drafting
Between 6th to 12th this year.
And a mid 1st pick as I "believe" Chevy will NOT go into the trade deadline without sign or trading Buff or Ladd, at least one of them.

If that happens. hmmmmm.......

Managements can't also say Jets is in the midst of a playoff battle, Jets are nowhere good enough to win a playoff "game" if they manage to squick in.
The team is very young and in transition.

Hope they can get an organizational need.. LHD

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Which only further proves the point that BPA is subjective. Edmonton actually thought they were drafting the best players, gritty and tough. Those players were likely BPA on their scouts lists. They obviously opted to take a Dman over a forward in some cases, and vice versa, but not all cases.
BPA is subjective outside of the top guys between almost every single scout, team, fan and analyst. Very few even agree on even how the top and middle of the 1st round should look this year. I despise the words BPA because it assumes that everyone thinks player A is definitely the #43 pick in this years draft, which is never ever the case. BPA is just a way of saying take who you think is best and its obvious there will be some biases in that decision.
Simply saying I will take BPA could mean 5-6 different players in a given draft position depending on who you personally like more.

I agree. I've tried to say the same thing several times. You may have said it better though.

There are occasional exceptions. I think Connor falling to us this year was one of them. It is not usually that clear who BPA is at the 17th pick.

I'm sure Chevy and his draft team thought Roslovic was BPA at 25 but I think he was in a virtual tie with Jacob Larsson who would have been a better pick for us being a highly rated LHD. Nobody knows right now how it will look in 5 years.

 

[Daximus]

I agree. I've tried to say the same thing several times. You may have said it better though.

There are occasional exceptions. I think Connor falling to us this year was one of them. It is not usually that clear who BPA is at the 17th pick.

I'm sure Chevy and his draft team thought Roslovic was BPA at 25 but I think he was in a virtual tie with Jacob Larsson who would have been a better pick for us being a highly rated LHD. Nobody knows right now how it will look in 5 years.

Exactly! Connor was a case of a highly rated pick falling to us at the 17th overall pick. At that point it was a no brainer. Roslovic on the other hand was considered a mid 2nd rounder by virtually every mock draft and list published by pro scout's out there. Chevy and Co. obviously thought hey, we really like this kid let's just take him here.
Larsson, Carlsson, Dermott or even Carlo could very well all have better NHL careers than Roslovic. And were probably on their respective teams BPA lists over Roslovic.

edit: To me saying BPA is like asking someone what kind of sandwhich they want and they say "Just give me the best possible sandwhich." Tells you nothing about what they think the best possible sandwich might be.
Of course the correct answer to that question is a Monte Cristo.

 

[nobody important]

Of course the correct answer to that question is a Monte Cristo.

Oooh, sorry, that's incorrect. The correct answer is of course, the Reuben.