Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)
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puck stoppa
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Thanks for reply. I could list warts for any guys late first round tho, what I like about howden is he is good at every thing, but not awesome at those things, which leaves me to believe upside is there. High character guy too, he'd be an excellent 3rd line centre down the road if he projects. I hope jets snag him, clouston sure likes him, playing ahead of McLeod in every situation, McLeod has that speed and that's about it.
I think they'll take the BPA with their first pick, and I doubt they would move up just to fill a positional requirement. They can use their later 1st and their early 2nd on D to stock the prospect pool.
Having said that, if they think Chychrun is a sure-fire top-end D prospect that is on par with other prospects when their pick comes up, then they won't hesitate to pull the trigger.
CaptainChef
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Pretty sure this has been mentioned before but worthy of consideration for sure depending on where we fall in the lottery & who is left. Should the Jets be picking 7-8 with our first pick & the highest guy we have rated there is a riser like Jost or Keller. Does it not make sense to trade with Carolina for their #13 & low 20s (LA first)?
At 13, that should still give us a decent shot at whoever remains at C (Jost, Keller, Brown) or D (Sergachev, Fabbro, Juolevi, maybe even Chychrun) ...
PLUS with our two shots in the low 20s and one at 37 we can really load up on other D prospects like McAvoy, Bean, Hajek (or any of the above that slip) or some remaining C prospects (McLeod although don't really like him, Howden, Rubtsov, Kunin, Thompson, Asplund, Dahlen)
At 13, that should still give us a decent shot at whoever remains at C (Jost, Keller, Brown) or D (Sergachev, Fabbro, Juolevi, maybe even Chychrun) ...
PLUS with our two shots in the low 20s and one at 37 we can really load up on other D prospects like McAvoy, Bean, Hajek (or any of the above that slip) or some remaining C prospects (McLeod although don't really like him, Howden, Rubtsov, Kunin, Thompson, Asplund, Dahlen)
Interesting thought, but at this stage I think the Jets should go for quality over quantity.
Maybe not elite speed or explosiveness, though his skating looks pretty good. Also, not a huge player, and there's a premium for size at the C position.
CaptainChef
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Other than the fact he played against lesser competition in the BCHL this year, you really have to dig hard for knocks. It was thought that size and skating would hold him back, but he hit a growth spurt (now nearly 6' & 190 lbs) and his skating/quickness has improved a ton. He won't seek out physical play, but he's built like a truck and can handle the hits if they come.
Seeing him do so well against his peers at this tourn will really sky-rocket his value. I'm guessing top 8 or higher.
CaptainChef
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I'm in the same boat but if we're reaching anyway at 7-8, why not drop & be making much the same gamble at 13 (good chance we could get the exact same player -- and if its not Jost, who's to say that Keller or Brown might not be THAT top forward that comes out of the 5-15 slot).
Its all a gamble anyway unless you land 1-4 IMO (and even here who's to say that there aren't a couple guys that come out later in the first who aren't a whole lot better). On this one, I'd lean to dropping & getting that extra pick in the low 20s.
Mathil8
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It's because there's no such thing as an "actual" reach. We as fans may perceive it as a reach based on consensus lists, but if TNSE has this player higher on their list they would be smart to expect other organizations to like this player as well. Can't see them trading down if there's a player they like on the board and simply cross their fingers hoping said player will be around a few spots later.
Only time it makes sense to trade down is if you have multiple players similarly ranked AND another team comes knocking cause they really like a player in your range.
I wouldn't go as far as saying high character guy. He did have some issues with the coaching staff this year on the Warriors. They weren't reluctant to call him out for it either. Though how much of that is on the coaching staff is beyond me. I think 3rd line center is definitely in his wheelhouse. McLeod is definitely overrated and Howden is definitely underrated but I would still prefer a number of guys over him if they are available with our late 1st. I would pounce on him if hes available with our 2nd though!
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Just because we are having some difficulty differentiating between these (3rd tier?) players doesn't mean there is no significant difference and that the Jets scouts haven't identified it.
You are also assuming there is a willing partner in Carolina. If you are right they won't do it. If they will do it you are probably wrong.
I think if we draft 8 we have a much better chance of getting a really good player than if we take whatever is left over at 13.
The bolded.
Mathil8
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Yes its all a gamble but it is about odds. The odds are much better at 8 than at 13. There may be a couple of guys later on who turn out better but your odds of stumbling on them go down sharply as you draft lower. It is the same story as the lottery. The odds are better if you finish lower. The last place team only gets a 1 in 5 chance at first OA but it gets a better chance at it than any other single team gets.
jetsfaneh
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Logan Brown is a big boy! Pretty smooth skater. Sounds like his development is really taking off. Craig Button has mentioned him creeping into the top 5 of this draft a couple times which is probably a bit high. But can totally see teams falling in love with his high ceiling and pedigree. Definitely more intriguing than say McLeod.
Don't sleep on Marcus Niemalainen from the Finnish team. He has had a very good tourny and has good size. Definite possibility in the late first.
And trade down scenarios from 7-8 to say 13 seems very low percentage. Like not discussion worthy
I took him at 22 in my GM mode, topped off as #5 Dman.
jetsfaneh
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The one thing we know about the Jets scouting staff is if they covet a player they will take him in a certain range or bracket. With two first round picks, assuming they stand pat, if they pick 7-8 they may love a Logan Brown enough to pull the trigger there knowing that they still have two more players in this nice looking top 50.
No I'd take my chance with the lottery. If you don't get that there will still be a real nice player at 6-7 maybe even PLD.
CaptainChef
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Who said anything about forcing anyone - geez. Merely making a point that there are times when trading down works & this may be one. Whether trading 8th for 13 plus 22 makes sense strictly by the numbers, I have no clue. But there are definitely circumstances where teams would do that from both sides, and unless we have someone we're really sold on at 8, I'd do it.
CaptainChef
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Sure the odds are sl better at 8 than at 13, but how much better. So much better that you'd turn down an opportunity to get a 2nd mid-1st.
How much better are the odds that you will land a top line player (or for that matter a prospect that might play 100 NHL games) at # 8, then you would at 13 + 21 combined. Varies from year to year no doubt, but this article looked at first rounders by position from 1990-2009.
http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673
Picks no. 6-10 generally landed only a "regular NHLer" (not even a top 6 F or top 4 D), with 75-90% of these picks having played at least 100 NHL games.
Picks 11-14 still landed a regular NHLer, with 70-80% playing 100 games in the NHL.
From picks #15-27 the % bounced from 40-75%, but in most year (10 of 13 years) 60-70% of the prospects picked here played 100 NHL games.
By their analysis, chances are you won't land a top 6 F or top 4 D with any regularity after the 5th pick, and the average player picked at #6-8 over these years scored no higher than the average player at #12-14.
So, if we're not going to get someone we feel really confident about at pick #7-8, and someone is willing to trade you a 13th & 21st, yep I definitely do it.
Yes, you need to do need to find a willing partner, and maybe the numbers are too highly skewed in our favor for Carolina or anyone else to do it, nevertheless in this instance I sacrifice quality for quantity.
Don't think adding quantity is th4 way to go at this point. We already have so much quantity we need quality. I don't trade down for a second.
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GM's explore both possibilities leading up to draft day. They should always be ready to trade up or down. They just don't happen as often as the rumours say they might. It takes a lot of things to happen before one of those trades happens.
The only problem I had with your postwas why you singled out Carolina. it's crazy to single out one team because there are too many variables not the least of which is they have to want to do it.
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