Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[Mortimer Snerd]

There are 1001 possible combinations (one combination is do again leaving 1000) The Jets will have 75 of those. The leafs 200 the bruins 10 etc

Thanks. I wasn't thinking of it that way. I wondered why 1 combination was a 'do over'. This line is confusing "The resulting four-number series (without regard to selection order) are then matched against a chart". If it isn't done in the order of selection then what order is it done in?

 

[MardyBum]

I'm not even sure of who I want for us at 6-8 anymore.

One of Tkachuk, PLD if he drops, Nylander, Chych if he drops or Jost i'd be happy with, but I can't really decide outside not wanting McLeod at that spot.

Need to watch some video of these guys.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I hear you, but this is no way an open & shut case. Indeed if they have a guy like Jost, Chychrun, Tkachuk or Nylander ranked really high in their system, and that guy became available at 7-8, we take him.

But if all the guys that come out at 7-8 carry significant risk in the scouts eyes (so much so that they can't make any clear-cut choice), then we're likely choosing someone that is in a group of very similarly ranked players that fall in the 7-14 range. In that case, there may be very little if anything to chose between picking 7-8 & 13.

The bonus of getting that extra low 20s pick, however, would be very significant to the Jets. Some dang good D & even some really good C will still be available there (but they will all carry significant risk as well). Having two shots at these guys allows us two picks at high risk-reward players; one of these will very likely turn into a decent NHLer (maybe both), you're just going out on a limb that much further in making that choice.

I think you'll agree that the extra first we got in the Ladd deal was super & could be very important to our future. Getting a second, even better, first as a throw in without significantly altering our first overall choice (and that's where the decision needs to be made for sure) would be equally important to this club.

Right now, I'd lean to taking Jost or Tkachuk at 7-8. If it came down to the other choices, I'd defer to 13 & 21 if that or a ~ similar choice was offered.

Anyway, I'm dropping this discussion because there is no clear right or wrong decision (and its clearly hypothetical). I'm trusting our scouts to make these decisions but these are definitely options to consider

I agree it is not a slam dunk. These things never are, even if you have 1st OA. All you are ever doing is going with the best odds, the best chance. I guarantee you they will be able to make a choice that Chevy feels comfortable with. If by 'clear cut' you mean so clear that there is no dissenting voice in the room then probably not but again even if you have 1st OA there is likely some disagreement.

You are making a logical case for taking an option that I don't think exists. Huge IF it did exist then it would be a good option. I just don't think it exists. I don't think the tiers are that big at that level. And your option requires a trading partner who has that kind of a combination of assets. As it happens this year that exists but it gives only 1 possibility of doing that deal. That 1 partner is not going to be willing if the circumstances you describe exists. They would know just as well as we would that 8-13 are all equal. I believe that if your strategy involves pulling the wool over another teams eyes it is doomed to fail before you even start. Unless your proposition involves either the current Boston GM or his predecessor.

Edit: answered before reading all the way to your last paragraph. I agree it has been covered. There is no absolute right or wrong answer. IF all the stars aligned then I would agree with your hypothetical proposition. The math would work.

 

[jetdiehard]

I like the top 7 but after that.....then it is up to our Scouts.....as they know them a lot better than I.

 

[Whileee]

I'm not even sure of who I want for us at 6-8 anymore.

One of Tkachuk, PLD if he drops, Nylander, Chych if he drops or Jost i'd be happy with, but I can't really decide outside not wanting McLeod at that spot.

Need to watch some video of these guys.

After seeing Jost at the U-18, I think I'd put him up into the top 8.

I'm still not sure what to think of Nylander. He certainly has a lot of skill. I'm just not sure how much of a difference-maker he'll be. Ehlers seemed much more dynamic with a strong desire to be the difference-maker in every game. Maybe it's just playing style, but I don't see that so much in Nylander's game. Jost plays like he's driven to win, plays at a fast pace, looks to have really good hockey sense, and has very good tools (including an excellent shot). He also looks like he'll definitely be a C at the NHL level. Seems like a player that brings a lot of what Little provides.

Don't know enough about Logan Brown. I did watch a couple of Spitfires games on TV. He didn't really stand out to me, which is surprising given his size. He would need to really improve his quickness, I think. Some team might well take him top 8.

I don't know what to think about the LHDs. They all seem to have question marks: Chychrun's hockey sense, Sergachyev's consistency, Juolevi's intensity and ceiling.

I just have a sense that if the Jets are at #6-8, they'll go for Jost (unless PLD or maybe Tkachuk fall, or they really love one of the LHD).

A top-3 this year would be fantastic. If they don't hit it in the lottery I still wonder if the Jets might try to hit a home run in the draft by moving Trouba for a top-3 or 4 pick to get Puljujarvi or PLD. If they could walk away with Puljujarvi / PLD and Jost or Chychrun, and then package picks / prospects to move into position for Fabbro, that would be one dynamic haul.

Pulju, Jost, Fabbro.... sign me up.

 

[drumzan]

poolparty banging out a Hatty in the finals with an injured hand and while a bit sick too apparently. He is a very dynamic player and if we end up with him some how I will be cheddared.

Go lottery luck Go!!!

Completely agree. Pulj is a clear top 3 talent. I just don't get people suggesting he could go 4-6. Don't overthink things. Talent > Need

 

[Jetabre]

Pool party looked really good in the gold medal game.

Come on lottery luck do your thing.

 

[lomiller1]

That seems like an incredibly convoluted way of doing it. My poor old, math challenged brain has no idea how that system works. Went to the simulator linked a little farther down that shows the actual numbers being drawn. Might have helped. Didn't. Need an emoji for completely baffled.

There are 1001 (literally lol) combinations of distinct that can be created from the numbers 1-14. Setting 1 combinations as "redraw" gives you 1000 equally weighted possibilities. Essentially this is like a random number between 1 and 1000.

This means you can assign a team any % chance to win you want in 0.1% increments. EG 20% is 200 of the 1000 combinations. 6% is 60 of the 1000 combinations, etc.

 

[Davedrivesbus]

What I love about odds is that the longshot only needs to hit once for many people to be pleasantly surprised. Here's my roll of the dice this morning:

Wonder what Coyotes would give up in this situation to swap picks? Next years first maybe?

 

[lomiller1]

Thanks. I wasn't thinking of it that way. I wondered why 1 combination was a 'do over'. This line is confusing "The resulting four-number series (without regard to selection order) are then matched against a chart". If it isn't done in the order of selection then what order is it done in?

There are 24024 distinct ways the draw can turn out but there are 24 orders in the same 4 numbers could be drawn. If you treat the numbers the same regardless of order, you get 24024/24 = 1001

 

[cbcwpg]

Thanks. I wasn't thinking of it that way. I wondered why 1 combination was a 'do over'. This line is confusing "The resulting four-number series (without regard to selection order) are then matched against a chart". If it isn't done in the order of selection then what order is it done in?

Think of it like this:

Example: one of the 4 number combinations the Jets own is: 1, 5, 9, 12

They draw the numbers to see who wins 1st over all and the numbers drawn are: 12, 1, 5, 9

The Jets win because they have those four numbers assigned to them, regardless of the order they come out of the ball machine.... so "selection order" doesn't matter.

 

[CaptainChef]

I agree it is not a slam dunk. These things never are, even if you have 1st OA. All you are ever doing is going with the best odds, the best chance. I guarantee you they will be able to make a choice that Chevy feels comfortable with. If by 'clear cut' you mean so clear that there is no dissenting voice in the room then probably not but again even if you have 1st OA there is likely some disagreement.

You are making a logical case for taking an option that I don't think exists. Huge IF it did exist then it would be a good option. I just don't think it exists. I don't think the tiers are that big at that level. And your option requires a trading partner who has that kind of a combination of assets. As it happens this year that exists but it gives only 1 possibility of doing that deal. That 1 partner is not going to be willing if the circumstances you describe exists. They would know just as well as we would that 8-13 are all equal. I believe that if your strategy involves pulling the wool over another teams eyes it is doomed to fail before you even start. Unless your proposition involves either the current Boston GM or his predecessor.

Edit: answered before reading all the way to your last paragraph. I agree it has been covered. There is no absolute right or wrong answer. IF all the stars aligned then I would agree with your hypothetical proposition. The math would work.

Good question that I didn't know off hand -- who has two first rounders in this years draft? I may be slightly off on the projections depending on where everyone lands, but it currently looks something like this.

Tor: currently 1 & ~23-30 (Pitt pick)
Wpg: currently 6 & ~22-30 (Chi)
Arizona: 7 & ~ 20 (NYR)
Carolina: 13 & ~ 21 (LA)
Boston: 14 & 18-30 (SJ)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not even sure of who I want for us at 6-8 anymore.

One of Tkachuk, PLD if he drops, Nylander, Chych if he drops or Jost i'd be happy with, but I can't really decide outside not wanting McLeod at that spot.

Need to watch some video of these guys.

If we can't draft a really top grade F who would play in the NHL this year or next at the latest then I really want a LHD. Trouble is that the D this year really don't inspire a lot of confidence. I was pretty high on Chych but have begun to have doubts. I'm not sold on Juolevi either. I am beginning to warm up to Sergachyev but I am a little leery of Russians.

The good news is that as the draft gets closer it seems that more F's are rising. Jost has certainly been impressive and has moved into the top 10. Logan Brown has moved up though I'm not sure how high he is yet. I think there will still be 1 or 2 pretty good forwards at 6-8.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There are 1001 (literally lol) combinations of distinct that can be created from the numbers 1-14. Setting 1 combinations as "redraw" gives you 1000 equally weighted possibilities. Essentially this is like a random number between 1 and 1000.

This means you can assign a team any % chance to win you want in 0.1% increments. EG 20% is 200 of the 1000 combinations. 6% is 60 of the 1000 combinations, etc.

Yah, I needed to have that pointed out to me.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There are 24024 distinct ways the draw can turn out but there are 24 orders in the same 4 numbers could be drawn. If you treat the numbers the same regardless of order, you get 24024/24 = 1001

OK, just as I was typing another dumb "i don't get it" the little light bulb came on. Gotcha, thanks.
8 - 3 - 14 - 1 and
14 - 3 - 8 - 1 are the same as are all other 'orders' of those numbers.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Thanks. I wasn't thinking of it that way. I wondered why 1 combination was a 'do over'. This line is confusing "The resulting four-number series (without regard to selection order) are then matched against a chart". If it isn't done in the order of selection then what order is it done in?

It's really like a lottery. each team gets their combinations assigned randomly in advance. When the ping pong balls emerge with the 4 number combination, they need to check the list to see who has the winning quick pick ticket

 

[Aavco Cup]

Chychrun lost his lustre at the tourney for me. I'd rather grab one of the forwards early and wait for the next two for the D.

 

[ps241]

Chychrun lost his lustre at the tourney for me. I'd rather grab one of the forwards early and wait for the next two for the D.

We can always hope the BPA for out Chicago pick turns into a solid D Prospect. There are interesting players available later.

 

[csk]

Chychrun lost his lustre at the tourney for me. I'd rather grab one of the forwards early and wait for the next two for the D.

Yeah, I think the top end D in this draft are pretty weak.

 

[JetsFan815]

Had a dream last night that we were at the draft and drafting 6th overall. The order went something like Matthews, Laine, Puljuarvi, Chychrun, Juolevi. We had the pick of Tkachuck, Dubois and Sergachev but we drafted a random 5'10 160 lbs Swedish kid ranked 79th overall in TSN's draft ranking. This board went nuts. Sadly I woke up before our Chicago pick.

 

[Huffer]

Yeah, I think the top end D in this draft are pretty weak.

Agreed. No comparison to Hanifin, Werenski, and Provorov.

 

[Boxertim]

Had a dream last night that we were at the draft and drafting 6th overall. The order went something like Matthews, Laine, Puljuarvi, Chychrun, Juolevi. We had the pick of Tkachuck, Dubois and Sergachev but we drafted a random 5'10 160 lbs Swedish kid ranked 79th overall in TSN's draft ranking. This board went nuts. Sadly I woke up before our Chicago pick.

We laugh about this possibility at work...50% that this happens

 

[zsam]

Had a dream last night that we were at the draft and drafting 6th overall. The order went something like Matthews, Laine, Puljuarvi, Chychrun, Juolevi. We had the pick of Tkachuck, Dubois and Sergachev but we drafted a random 5'10 160 lbs Swedish kid ranked 79th overall in TSN's draft ranking. This board went nuts. Sadly I woke up before our Chicago pick.

20lb more and I could tell you exactly who you were dreaming about

 

[CaptainChef]

Chychrun lost his lustre at the tourney for me. I'd rather grab one of the forwards early and wait for the next two for the D.

Yep me too. Sounds like many scouts/GMs probably really soured on him as well & I'll bet he slips beyond top 10. In fact, all D seem to be a bigger gamble this year.

Jost & Brown (perhaps Keller) are F prospects that really seemed to have helped their cause a lot at U18s. If we fail to win lottery, I'm still thinking that whomever is available of LHD, Tkachuk or Jost might be fine with me. Brown I have not decided yet, but I'm currently down on all the LHD prospects. Lets see what's available for D with Chi pick or at 36, because don't see us taking one with our first.

 

[ps241]

Had a dream last night that we were at the draft and drafting 6th overall. The order went something like Matthews, Laine, Puljuarvi, Chychrun, Juolevi. We had the pick of Tkachuck, Dubois and Sergachev but we drafted a random 5'10 160 lbs Swedish kid ranked 79th overall in TSN's draft ranking. This board went nuts. Sadly I woke up before our Chicago pick.

Ok JetsFan815 you are actually dreaming about this stuff now . I haven't quite hit that level but it does own too much of my mind space. Hard to ignore how much luck plays into the fait of a franchise. There are two or three kids here that might have us knocking on the door pretty dam fast and that is hard to ignore. Add Matthews or Laine to our current team and a path to a championship one day is not unrealistic.